Is Iran Invasion coming !

Daisy

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IMG_20190523_161707.jpg

Please someone tell me Jordan has bought American F35.
 

zala09

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Unlike Afghan,Syria&Iraq... Iran is a homogeneous country without much sunni population or ethnic differences.

I guess democracy is coming to Iran soon..... :rofl:
Don't know why Israel&US hates shia Iran!!
Anyway, still it's a muslim country,all muslim countries must die.
Is Iran not democracy government?
How they choose a hussan ruhani??
Not any election?
 

zala09

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Without Iran the Suni World of Islam will go berserk. Iran at least provides a balance in the form of Shia crescent. Let us watch and see. Iran being at the soft belly of Russia, their reactions would be worth watching. Time to make some money for them.
Off course...

Russian fully support for Iranian.
Because..iran is last muslim who against USA.

No after Syria. Russian got back that
If they respond (Russia) USA not forwarding.

US want.. next muslim countries in them fevor.

Look lybia..till 2010 no one can think.. muamnar gaddafi.. rule can demolished. But it's happened. Gaddafi killed.

Now Iran is also. Long term. Enemy..
Saudi also want only one muslim nation sunni can rule on muslim countries.

So..... all politics on way.

Possible Iran us war can happen.

But if another Iraq -...??
Bad news for world. Also not..economically...but strategically for India.
 

Daisy

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United States of America placed their F35 in Jordan.
Enter 39 characteristics
 

Shashank Nayak

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Iran has a substantially larger population than Iraq. However their military is as obsolete as their western neighbor was before US invasion. Iran has been under western sanctions far longer than Iraq was and most of their equipment is antiquated. Iranian Air defense will not survive two full weeks of US aerial assault.
Iranian air defence won't even survive the first couple of days... But ground invasion of iran, a country so much bigger and with a difficult terrain will result in thousands of American soldiers killed. Trump will only able to justify this, if Iran attacks Us troops first and kills a significant number of them.
 

BoseRaoModi

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Iran tried to be like the corleone family, tried to take full control of the neighborhood by knocking out rivals one after another. First Iraqis, then the Syrians and Lebanese. The other two gangs, Israelis and the Saudis, although engaged in their own turf wars, saw a common threat and decided to call the godfather of the entire syndicate to settle this matter....

As far as India playing mediator, remember what senior Corleone tells Michael, your friend who makes the offer to mediate peace is your enemy. Good if India stays out of this.

P:S - apologize for the Godfather analogy, but couldn't think of anything closer to the ME situation.
Iran tried to extend its strategic reach to ensure its trade routes to stabilize its economy. Iran has been constantly attacked since the 1980s and knew this was needed or they would have been smothered by now. Their soon to be road route to the eastern med is a big payoff

Also they took the fight to the Arabs to try to stop attacks on their interests. Can Saudis and gulfers plan attacks on shias if they have to fight on their borders? Isn't that what India is doing to porkis, why should Iran do any different for their people?
 

S.A.T.A

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Iran tried to extend its strategic reach to ensure its trade routes to stabilize its economy. Iran has been constantly attacked since the 1980s and knew this was needed or they would have been smothered by now. Their soon to be road route to the eastern med is a big payoff

Also they took the fight to the Arabs to try to stop attacks on their interests. Can Saudis and gulfers plan attacks on shias if they have to fight on their borders? Isn't that what India is doing to porkis, why should Iran do any different for their people?
Well undoubtedly Iran will take steps to secure their foothold in a region suffering from mind numbing sectarian violence. However I don't believe Iran's putcsh into the middle east has any economic - trade related consideration. The predominant factor in their strategic calculus has been sectarian.

Iran has suffered from tyranny of geography. One hand it was hemmed in by sunni Arab ruled Iraq and down south they had the Persian gulf acting as a buffer between it and the Arabian peninsula. Despite their support for the Hezbollah, Iran was a minor player in the middle east politics. What it lacked in strategic depth, it tried to create a heft for itself by supporting sectarian groups. The Alawite (closely related to the Shi'a faction of Islam) dominated Assad regime was one such.

All this changed when Saddam's regime fell and iraq's putative democracy restored the Shi'a back in control of Baghdad. Iran's dream of Shi'a ruled /dominated crescent from Iran to all the way to syria was beginning to take shape. All this was put paid when the Arab spring took hold and threatened to topple the Assad regime.

In my opinion Iran's so called rivalry with Israel and the Gulf Arabs(plus Saudi Arabia) was a sideshow. There are valuable lessons to be learnt, from the syrian and other regional conflicts, for other countries (including India). Sectarianism is like riding the proverbial tiger, not easy get off and you could be its victim.
 

Haldiram

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Going by the anatomy of how the US negotiates geopolitical deals, they are most hostile to a nation just before a peace treaty. It allows them to see if the other party blinks and yields more goodies before the deal can be sealed from a position of strength. This happened in all their long term pivots. When India tested its nukes, the US was most hostile to us, but then they saw that we wont budge, and they changed their policy. When Manmohan signed the 1-2-3, they were most hostile to us, but we didn't budge, so they budged. When N.Korea was on a weapons development spree, the US made it look like an invasion would come tomorrow. Then suddenly Trump flew down and shook hands with Kim.

This Iran drama needs to be looked at from the same prism. Already there are deep state assets like Christine Fair suggesting that the US has more strategic overlap with Shias than Saudis. This could be the storm before the calm. The relaxing of nuclear norms and allowing the Iran-nuke deal, even at the cost of antagonizing Israel is a step in that direction (later they gave the lollypop of Jerusalem embassy to Israel). Israel increasingly sees convergence in strategic interests with the Saudis and divergence with the US. There isn't going to be an alliance, but the US will try to spook Iran to squeeze out some concessions and then shake hands and move on.

India knows this template too well, so we never suspended our ties with Iran, not even when Democrats threatened us, and nor when the Republicans are threatening us. The US is coming to terms with a new world order where they need regional powers to maintain the balance. They'll spend this decade cutting deals with perceived US-rival countries like India, Iran, Russia, N.Korea and drawing red lines, setting boundaries for all other powers to respect (until 2040 when China will be strong enough to start testing those boundaries). It's not all about weapons and military power. The US conglomerates benefit from a global consumer base. If the US does anything that hurts the global economy, it will accelerate their downfall vis-a-vis China. They are trying to restore balance by rationalizing their inclination from Saudi to Iran, from S.Korea to N.Korea and (in some areas) from Pakistan to India.
 
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Vijyes

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India knows this template too well, so we never suspended our ties with Iran, not even when Democrats threatened us, and nor when the Republicans are threatening us. The US is coming to terms with a new world order where they need regional powers to maintain the balance. They'll spend this decade cutting deals with perceived US-rival countries like India, Iran, Russia, N.Korea and drawing red lines, setting boundaries for all other powers to respect (until 2040 when China will be strong enough to start testing those boundaries). It's not all about weapons and military power. The US conglomerates benefit from a global consumer base. If the US does anything that hurts the global economy, it will accelerate their downfall vis-a-vis China. They are trying to restore balance by rationalizing their inclination from Saudi to Iran, from S.Korea to N.Korea and (in some areas) from Pakistan to India.
Don't you think that it is Saudi Arabia pressuring people, not USA? Saudi Arabia ia the backbone of USA dollar being world currency and hence USA is just implementing Saudi Arabian will. MBS visited China and India just before waivers ended and made a public announcement that Saudi is willing to supply more oil. This was indirectly implying the cutting of Iranian oil. USA is not an oil supplier (It is a net oil importer at about 2.5 MBPD) and hence can't substitute Iran. The only way Iran sanctions can work is if KSA and its GCC allies stand together and substitute Iran.

So, real question is about how India will balance GCC & Iran. GCC gives India $100 billion a year in remittance and investment whereas Iran's contribution is 0. Iran gives very little concessions to india and even kicked out India from Farzad-B as Iran. When Iran is behaving in an absolutely transactional manner without any regards to strategc relations, why should India favour Iran over KSA? After all, whatever India imports from KSA is essentially free as the remittance and investment pays for it whereas Iranian imports have to be paid by india.
 

DG7867

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How well can Iran hold off if shit hits the fan....
 

bhramos

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How well can Iran hold off if shit hits the fan....
War with Iran is not a joke War will destroy the entire OIL infrastructure of the Gulf Countries. Dubai Sharjah Abu Dhabi Jeddah Riyadh Doha Manama Tel Aviv Haifa will be vacated, US bases will be attacked and US naval fleet sunk No Oil Tankers will move
 

S.A.T.A

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the #UnitedStates Air Force (#USAF) has deployed 16X F-35 fighter jets in #AlAzraq Air Force Base E of Amman

This appears to be a genuine build up of War fighting capability for a possible invasion and not just Saber rattling. It was reported that the Americans could deploy up to 120,000 ground forces. This is a large force and full deployment would probably be completed by around September. This means the air strikes could start as early as November - December and a ground Invasion soon after.
 

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