IPI Pipeline Discussion Thread

Vinod2070

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One last point is that Brahmputra is much more important to Bangladesh than us.
 

p2prada

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The pipeline deal is crucial for India. We can perhaps sign a separate contract with Iran for an under sea link.

But, even if we do go through with the deal in its present form, Pakistan will sign an accord that says Pak has to provide uninterrupted flow to India. In case there is a block in the flow that cannot be fixed in a day, Pak will have to pay $700million as reimbursement to India. Atleast this was the rate in the first contract. Perhaps the amount will increase now. Still, the loss incurred due to the interruption of the gas flow will be more than $700million.

Would prefer two sealinks, one from Oman and one from Iran, built together that connects to Gujarat.
 

EnlightenedMonk

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The pipeline deal is crucial for India. We can perhaps sign a separate contract with Iran for an under sea link.

But, even if we do go through with the deal in its present form, Pakistan will sign an accord that says Pak has to provide uninterrupted flow to India. In case there is a block in the flow that cannot be fixed in a day, Pak will have to pay $700million as reimbursement to India. Atleast this was the rate in the first contract. Perhaps the amount will increase now. Still, the loss incurred due to the interruption of the gas flow will be more than $700million.

Would prefer two sealinks, one from Oman and one from Iran, built together that connects to Gujarat.
And, who will pay for both the undersea links ??? I wonder where the money will come from ???
 

p2prada

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The last time I heard, India was ready to pay $12Billion for the link with Iran.

Energy gets top priority in our budget, even higher than defence.

The Govt can even cancel the MRCA just to get the pipelines done.
 

Daredevil

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For the people who were wondering about Pakistan switching off the oil tap whenever they want. Iran has given assurances and will be part of deal if signed by India that if the levels of oil supply goes down to India, the oil supply levels to Pakistan will also be decreased relatively. If Pakistanis switch off our tap, Iran will switch off their tap.

My hunch says that, India will not sign this IPI deal in near future or may never sign at all. If India signs this deal, there should be zero leverage given to Pakistan.
 

ZOOM

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For the people who were wondering about Pakistan switching off the oil tap whenever they want. Iran has given assurances and will be part of deal if signed by India that if the levels of oil supply goes down to India, the oil supply levels to Pakistan will also be decreased relatively. If Pakistanis switch off our tap, Iran will switch off their tap.

My hunch says that, India will not sign this IPI deal in near future or may never sign at all. If India signs this deal, there should be zero leverage given to Pakistan.

Don't worry mate, Pakistan simply cannot switch off Supply of gas to India in case of IPI, even during the Border Conflict like scenario. Since, we have a Rivers which are flowing inside Pakistan through Kashmir, all we have to do is to switch them off through our Dams that we are building now and through exisiting one. Heck, India atleast manage to survive without Natural gas, but how will Pakistani's going to survive without Water.
 

Vinod2070

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True. Water is the strongest leverage we have over Pakistan.

We should use it to the fullest extent. There is nothing they can do if we use it skillfully.
 

ZOOM

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According various sources, ONGC Videsh Nigam is purchasing various stakes in Iranian Oil Companies by purchasing refinaries and Production facility on Iranian soil itself. At the same time, some of the Privatly owned companies as well are now looking towards Iran for possible stake purchase for Oil Production and transporting it to India through Marine Liners.

We also need to look towards all other avenues like African continent and Middle east, at the same time some of CIA countries where India is doing a great foray to fulfill its Oil demands.

Don't need to feel remorse about this inking of Gas deal between Iran and Pakistan.
 

NikSha

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This deal has been suicidal for India since the Day-1 of some genius adding the P in IPI.

It's hard to trust backstabbing terrorist nations who are killing our people and threatening nuclear wars every few days. India should just move on to the nuclear energy, the whole point of the nuclear deal.
 

Su-47

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This deal has been suicidal for India since the Day-1 of some genius adding the P in IPI.

It's hard to trust backstabbing terrorist nations who are killing our people and threatening nuclear wars every few days. India should just move on to the nuclear energy, the whole point of the nuclear deal.
The P had to be there. The shortest and cheapest route from Iran to India was thru Pakistan.

Also, this deal was seen by many as a step forward in peace relations between India and Pakistan. This deal was often nicknamed 'the peace pipe'.

Before relations deteriorated between India and Pak, this pipeline looked probable. Even now, it is possible to finalise the IPI deal.

But unfortunately, the security situation in Pak is beyond hope. The pipeline can be blown up by terrorists even if the GoP supports the deal wholeheartedly.
 

NikSha

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Before relations deteriorated between India and Pak, this pipeline looked probable. Even now, it is possible to finalise the IPI deal.

Not really. I remember reading a long time ago (before this "deterioration") about how government just wasn't comfortable with pipeline going through Pakistan for starters. That was the second big reason, or maybe the biggest reason over Iran rasing prices randomly forgetting all the "promises" they made when this drama was initiated.

Bottomline, government didn't follow through for more reasons than just money in the end for a long time. That's why this deal was going nowhere for so long.. as far as India is concerned (and it shouldn't).

Also, after nuclear deal it makes more sense spending resources getting something productive out of it for a change rather than more publicity for Congress.
 

johnee

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The P had to be there. The shortest and cheapest route from Iran to India was thru Pakistan.

Also, this deal was seen by many as a step forward in peace relations between India and Pakistan. This deal was often nicknamed 'the peace pipe'.

Before relations deteriorated between India and Pak, this pipeline looked probable. Even now, it is possible to finalise the IPI deal.

But unfortunately, the security situation in Pak is beyond hope. The pipeline can be blown up by terrorists even if the GoP supports the deal wholeheartedly.
I agree with Nik here. When will India learn that we can never depend on Pak to do the bare minimum required to keep our relations normal? Our relations with Pakistan being friendly is an utopian dream that never will come true, not in this generation or the next few.
And all those guys who are saying that Pak cant turn off the gas pipe becoz we have control of water pipe or that they would have to pay heavy expenses forget one simple thing. If we are talking about any other nation, perhaps these would work. But nothing works when we talk of rogue nations with many more rogue elements. Just look at 26/11, we had the proof, we caught the damn terrorist alive, we have the recordings of their interaction with their handlers, we know the handlers are/were in Karachi. Yet Pakistan has successfully derailed the process and has done absolutely nothing save some tamasha. And we know all that was tamasha, what have we done? Nothing! Why? They just increased the stakes and threatened us with nukes, and in steps the mighty Uncle. If ever we sign this IPI deal, then they would definitely use it as a leverage whenever there is an increase in tensions. For a nation that can threaten nuclear strikes to protect terrorists, stopping the gas supply amounts to nothing.
India should not give such direct leverage to Pakistan, besides the security situation in that country is so well known. They dont even have to do anything directly. They simply blame some non-state actors.
Lets concentrate on other projects and forget this IPI deal.
 

Singh

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Why India needs to look at Iran

Why Indian needs to look West (Iran)?

June 16, 2009 - The return of the incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as the President of Iran with 62.6% after the June 12, 2009 elections means that continuity is ensured in the Islamic Republic despite protests from the opposition candidate Hossein Mousavi’s criticism of alleged malpractice in the elections.

While Iran elections attracted interest in the West particularly among the United States policy makers, India should also be aware of the upcoming events in Iran. Indian’s strategic, political and economic interests are at stake in Iran.

On a positive note, there is continuity in the diplomatic relations with both India and Iran having the incumbent’s government back in power. However, the big question is how India will play its card to secure better ties with Iran?

To start up with India should reach out to Iran during the Shangai Co-operation Organization summit in Yekaterinburg, Russia. Both India and Iran is observer nations in the SCO which helps them get into scheme of things together. The greater that India could involve Iran in SCO means that it could have greater influence with direct diplomacy with Afghanistan and Track II diplomacy with Pakistan. . SCO is critical of U.S‘s role in Afghanistan.

Second, India should encourage the states involved in the Iran–Pakistan–India gas pipeline and not distance itself. The IPI pipeline starts from Asalouyehv in Iran stretch over 1100 kilometres through Iran. In Pakistan, it will pass through Baluchistan and Sind provinces in Pakistan So far, India has been reluctant to active participation in this pipeline project citing unrest in Baluchistan. Earlier, the deal reached a setback on July 2006, when Iran demanded a price of US$7.20 per million British thermal unit of gas against India's offer of US$4.20 per million British thermal unit. However, both India and Pakistan finally agreed in February 2007 to pay Iran US$4.93 per million, Also, India needs to understand that any reluctance in active involvement with Iran in gas and energy project means inviting its arch Asian rival China for more participation.

Third, India should allow greater participation of Iran in South Asian Association of Regional Co-operation (SAARC). India has encouraged Iran to have the status of observer nation in SAARC. India could do well a favour if it could make Iran a permanent member in SAARC.

India’s relations with Iran are tied with its relations with China, Pakistan, Afghanistan and U.S. By making huge influence in Iran, India can dictate terms in Afghanistan since Iran shares close borders with Afghanistan and have a stake in restructuring in the war-ravaged country. Also, India could nullify the Chinese effect in the Middle-Eastern countries.

Finally, closer relations with Iran could make U.S to think India’s greater important in not only in South-Asia but also whole of Asia. U.S has been making efforts to warm up the relations with Iran which would help them to wind-up military operations in Iraq and so eventually in Afghanistan.

U.S. President Barack Obama has been talking of direct diplomatic talks with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Recently, Obama acknowledged the role U.S. played in overthrowing a democratically elected government in Iran during 1953. U.S –Iran relations has been a strained one after the 1979’s Islamic Revolution in Iran. India could well be a mediator or facilitator in U.S-Iran relations.

However, India faces one reluctant issue on the relations with Iran is Israel. It is a similar dilemma faced by the U.S. How India will strengthen its ties with both Israel and Iran could be a challenge for the Dr. Manmohan Singh led United Progressive Government in India. Since India needs Israel’s co-operation in controlling terrorism and the purchase of weapons, it is caught in a cross-road of diplomacy. How India could balance its ties with both Tehran and Tel Aviv could be one of the main Foreign Policy challenge for the UPA government in the next five years?
 

Singh

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Memo to India: Look west, at Iran

TEHRAN: As the sun sinks behind wooded hills, the air is crisp, shadows lengthen on plush boulevards and the northern end of the city starts to
have a party. Every evening, smartly dressed young men with gelled hair and fashionably made-up girls in colourful hijabs and fragrant with European perfume gather at the city's squares. They carry photos of their favourite candidate for the June 12 presidential election.

The party kicks off when they start to shout slogans. Young men balance dangerously on the windows of speeding cars; horns honk furiously; the girls yell at biker boy-gangs. At the square, young boys and girls, colourful bands wrapped around their heads and wrists, ready for a rally. There is the roar of "Iran, Iran" and clenched fists rise and fall in rhythm.

Tehran is sleepless. Less than a week before an election that could be a turning point in their history, the young – 70% of Iran's population is below the age of 30 – are leading a campaign with slogans that symbolize their yearing: "Change"; "We can"; "Revolution". Every evening, the main gate of Tehran University becomes a battle zone, with supporters of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his main rival, former prime minister Mir Hossein Mousavi, exchanging slogans and, because this is Iran, roses.

On Wednesday night, as Ahmadinejad and Mousavi had an unprecedented 90–minute-long face-off on national television, Iran came to a halt. Some 50 million people – of a population of 70 m – watched. There are four more debates to go and everyone is waiting. "It's so interesting to see for the first time the candidates having an intense debate on TV. Now, we know which candidate has what in mind for our future, our jobs and education," says Fatemeh, a 21-year-old student at Tehran University.

It's interesting times in Iran. The country is changing. US President Barack Obama has acknowledged Iran's "legitimate need for nuclear energy" and accepted the CIA's role in the 1959 coup against the Mossadegh government. G8 leader Italy has invited Iran to a ministerial-level meet on Afghanistan later this month. Tehran and Baghdad have signed more than 100 MOUs, including joint oil exploration agreements within common borders and security issues. Iran and China have signed a $5 bn-gas deal to develop the giant South Pars gas field in the Persian gulf.

"Finally, our foreign policy is paying off. We took a principled stand on some crucial issues and the world has now acknowledged it," says an Iranian official, echoing Ahmadinejad, who boasted this week that he took a "tough stand against the bullies" and made the Western world understand that "Iran was strong".

But Iran has problems. Inflation is high - 25%. There have been terror attacks in the Zahedan area near the Pak-Afghan border. But Iranians are bullish. "The Americans have no right to tell us if we should have a nuclear bomb or not," says Hamid Hashemi, a shopkeeper. "They want to keep us down with sanctions, but Iran is growing, just like India which progressed despite the US sanctions after your nuclear blast," says the Mousavi-supporter.

That is the only mention of India. Iran's attachment to India is cultural and sentimental. The very word "Hindustan" makes ordinary people smile and shopkeepers generous. Thanks to Bollywood, people stop "Hindustanis" on the streets and talk to them in Farsi. Young people admire India's "software power". Bilateral trade has reached the $14-bn mark; Iran is India's second biggest supplier of oil; thousands of Iranians go to India for education and tourism every year; and in recent years Indians, particularly from Kashmir, have been coming to Iran to study. But there is bad news as well: around 80% of the bilateral trade is in oil; the gas pipeline deal has been stuck for years; and Iranians see India as moving too close to the US at its expense.

In private, Indian officials, admit that New Delhi needs to engage with Tehran more vigorously. "The Chinese are doing a lot of business here. They are even making Tehran's metro network. We could have done that," says an official.

Irrespective of who wins the election, change is in the air in Iran. The world too is looking at Tehran differently. Perhaps India should join the party?

Memo to India: Look west, at Iran - Deep Focus - The Times of India
 

thakur_ritesh

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india quite clearly has to play its cards to its interests and in no way should india get pressurised in any which way. iran is an important state from our point of view not only because of the huge energy reserves they have, which quite clearly is a very important thing for our growing economy but from the point of view of its strategic location for its close proximity to middle east, afghanistan to our two countries having common interests in afghanistan to them being the largest shia muslim state to their past support to us on the issue of kashmir. more importantly with the rise of prc this world is going to get divided between “with us” and “against us” and to some extent prc's “with us” states will be who do not support the view points of india as much and here it is very important that india has some very strong relations with states that are important in their region or globally. today is not the time for india to aggressively push its agendas and india needs to play a good boy with most other than with some in our immediate neighborhood, for the rest it will be good if we do not let them be any type of a threat to us at least in the foreseeable future. the only draw back of having good relations with the us is that they want their friends to toe their line and when it comes to them its another world altogether, so it will be better if india holds on to its interests no matter who says what and having good relations with iran is one such point in case.

economically the ipi might look like an expensive deal as per some estimates but with the way the price of crude is heading up north there will be some spill over effect on the price of gas and with the global economy expected to be back on its feet by 2012 its a sure shot the prices will be increased so the sooner we sign this deal the better but then this is yet another example of indian bubugiri where in it takes ages to come to a decision and yet another few ages in the implementation process. i wonder why do we keep cribbing over prc surging ahead and we keep getting stuck every now and then, when its all our making.
 

NikSha

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IPI is a suicide for India, who should be looking at nuclear energy for power needs after the much publicised nuke deal with US.

Other than that, I am sure there are many other ways to increase the friendship between the two countries.
 

Yusuf

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In the interest of getting energy security, it's in Indias interest to play the Baluchistan issue well. If it were to secede from Pakistan, it would reduce the risk to the project from a hostile government.
The Iran pipe line has to be realized. India traditionally had good ties with Iran, but those will be seriously tested by the Dollar weilding Chinese. China is doing a lot in Iran, more so since India made a port there. It troubles the Chinese as it sits on Hormuz and counters the port it built in Pakistan.
When it comes to Iran, India has to follow it's own interests and not the west. India can advice Iran to give up it's nukes. Nothing more than that. We need their oil and gas.
 

Soham

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In the interest of getting energy security, it's in Indias interest to play the Baluchistan issue well. If it were to secede from Pakistan, it would reduce the risk to the project from a hostile government.
IMO, that might not be the best card to play. It would just add more instability and infighting to the already unstable region. Further, alliances are not permanent. Look at Bangladesh, their ties with Pakistan are much better than 1971. Pakistan and China have made a place in Sri Lanka by supplying them with enough arms and ammunitions to take care of LTTE.
The Balochi support plan might just backfire on us.


China is doing a lot in China
??

I hope our relations with Iran move towards the better side, but I don't see that happening, especially in the light of increased cozying with the US.
The sudden diplomatic tilt towards the West, wouldn't really favour better ties with Tehran.
 

luckyy

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When it comes to Iran, India has to follow it's own interests and not the west. India can advice Iran to give up it's nukes. Nothing more than that. We need their oil and gas.
i don't think india is in any sorte of position to advice iran on nuke issue , nuke issue is iran's pride matter and it will not be good for india to put his legs into this matter ...
 

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