LETHALFORCE
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yes but to be successful the afghan war has to be won and pakistani is doing it's best to prevent that.
IPI Pipeline Discussion Thread
- Thread starter A.V.
- Start date
Wow, I think that you are a person who believes that everything which appears white is milk.
How can you change a country who had long believed terrorism as a state policy and used terrorism to acheive its needs? I don't think that Pak will abolish Taliban.
Remember.... It is not the end, The Taliban are not educated and they are strong against Education. They will tell that killing people is a Sacred act, There are youngsters who believe it without a second thought.
LETHALFORCE
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what i am saying is a lot of this will depend on how true pakistan is in getting rid of the taliban, which is probably not all, also China has their own Pipeline from Russia so they have secured their CA oil , I don't expect too much positive news in the afghan war even the supply routes are uncertain.
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Pakistan, Iran sign gas pipeline deal
Pakistan, Iran sign gas pipeline deal
By Syed Fazl-e-Haider
QUETTA, Pakistan - Officials from Pakistan on Sunday finally signed a gas pipeline accord with Iran, without India's participation, after 14 years of on-off negotiations over what was initially framed as the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline project.
Under the gas sale purchase agreement signed between the Iranian National Oil Company and Interstate Gas System of Pakistan, Iran will provide 750 million cubic feet of gas per day to Pakistan for the next 25 years. Officials in Islamabad termed the deal a major breakthrough and an achievement that would greatly help Pakistan meet its energy needs.
The two countries will sign the formal agreement for the multi-billion dollar gas pipeline project, to be completed in five years, in a third country within the next 15 days.
The project, when initially mooted in 1994, was intended to carry gas from Iran to Pakistan and on to India. New Delhi withdrew from the talks last year over repeated disputes on prices, transit fees and security issues. China has shown interest in joining the strategic gas pipeline project and last year said it would import about 1 billion cubic feet a day from Pakistan if India opted out.
Pakistan has faced severe criticism from the US over any kind of economic deal with Iran. The change of stance from the Pakistani government and the pace of developments at the project suggest that the strong US opposition has softened, Dawn newspaper reported, citing official sources.
The former George W Bush administration in Washington strongly resisted the IPI and had exerted considerable pressure on both India and Pakistan to abandon the project. The Bush White House instead supported purchase by South Asian nations of energy from the Central Asian republics contiguous to Afghanistan. Geopolitical considerations and continuing security issues in Afghanistan work against that from materializing. The present US administration of President Barack Obama has not yet given its views on the IPI project.
Some analysts in Pakistan had suggested the government in Islamabad should shelve the multibillion-dollar IPI project and instead invest in domestic resources such as coal, wind and water to meet energy requirements.
Beijing has been pressuring Tehran for China's participation in the pipeline project and Islamabad, while willing to sign a bilateral agreement with Iran, has also welcomed China's participation. According to an estimate, such a pipeline would result in Pakistan getting $200 million to $500 million annually in transit fees alone.
China and Pakistan are already working on a proposal for laying a trans-Himalayan pipeline to carry Middle Eastern crude oil to western China. Pakistan provides China the shortest possible route to import oil from the Gulf countries. Even so, passage over the Himalayas would be an expensive and challenging engineering feat, and once the oil reached China it would have to be shipped thousands of kilometers further east to coastal areas, where most energy demand is centered.
The pipeline, which would run from the southern Pakistan port of Gwadar and follow the Karakoram highway, would be partly financed by Beijing. The Chinese are also building a refinery at Gwadar. Imports using the pipeline would allow Beijing to reduce the portion of its oil shipped through the narrow and unsafe Strait of Malacca, which at present carries up to 80% of its oil imports. Islamabad also plans to extend a railway track to China to connect it to Gwadar.
The port is also considered the likely terminus of proposed multibillion-dollar gas pipelines reaching from the South Pars fields in Iran or from Qatar, and from the Daulatabad fields in Turkmenistan for export to world markets.
While India maintains that only issues over the IPI pipeline project are pricing and its commercial viability, Pakistan accuses India of adopting delaying tactics in signing a gas sales purchase agreement involving Iran, Pakistan and India. Iran has also got tired of waiting for New Delhi to come to terms on the proposed IPI project and last year it warned that China was eager to step in on the deal in India's place.
Syed Fazl-e-Haider ([email protected]) is a Quetta-based development analyst in Pakistan. He is the author of six books, including The Economic Development of Balochistan (2004).
Asia Times Online :: South Asia news, business and economy from India and Pakistan
Pakistan, Iran sign gas pipeline deal
By Syed Fazl-e-Haider
QUETTA, Pakistan - Officials from Pakistan on Sunday finally signed a gas pipeline accord with Iran, without India's participation, after 14 years of on-off negotiations over what was initially framed as the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline project.
Under the gas sale purchase agreement signed between the Iranian National Oil Company and Interstate Gas System of Pakistan, Iran will provide 750 million cubic feet of gas per day to Pakistan for the next 25 years. Officials in Islamabad termed the deal a major breakthrough and an achievement that would greatly help Pakistan meet its energy needs.
The two countries will sign the formal agreement for the multi-billion dollar gas pipeline project, to be completed in five years, in a third country within the next 15 days.
The project, when initially mooted in 1994, was intended to carry gas from Iran to Pakistan and on to India. New Delhi withdrew from the talks last year over repeated disputes on prices, transit fees and security issues. China has shown interest in joining the strategic gas pipeline project and last year said it would import about 1 billion cubic feet a day from Pakistan if India opted out.
Pakistan has faced severe criticism from the US over any kind of economic deal with Iran. The change of stance from the Pakistani government and the pace of developments at the project suggest that the strong US opposition has softened, Dawn newspaper reported, citing official sources.
The former George W Bush administration in Washington strongly resisted the IPI and had exerted considerable pressure on both India and Pakistan to abandon the project. The Bush White House instead supported purchase by South Asian nations of energy from the Central Asian republics contiguous to Afghanistan. Geopolitical considerations and continuing security issues in Afghanistan work against that from materializing. The present US administration of President Barack Obama has not yet given its views on the IPI project.
Some analysts in Pakistan had suggested the government in Islamabad should shelve the multibillion-dollar IPI project and instead invest in domestic resources such as coal, wind and water to meet energy requirements.
Beijing has been pressuring Tehran for China's participation in the pipeline project and Islamabad, while willing to sign a bilateral agreement with Iran, has also welcomed China's participation. According to an estimate, such a pipeline would result in Pakistan getting $200 million to $500 million annually in transit fees alone.
China and Pakistan are already working on a proposal for laying a trans-Himalayan pipeline to carry Middle Eastern crude oil to western China. Pakistan provides China the shortest possible route to import oil from the Gulf countries. Even so, passage over the Himalayas would be an expensive and challenging engineering feat, and once the oil reached China it would have to be shipped thousands of kilometers further east to coastal areas, where most energy demand is centered.
The pipeline, which would run from the southern Pakistan port of Gwadar and follow the Karakoram highway, would be partly financed by Beijing. The Chinese are also building a refinery at Gwadar. Imports using the pipeline would allow Beijing to reduce the portion of its oil shipped through the narrow and unsafe Strait of Malacca, which at present carries up to 80% of its oil imports. Islamabad also plans to extend a railway track to China to connect it to Gwadar.
The port is also considered the likely terminus of proposed multibillion-dollar gas pipelines reaching from the South Pars fields in Iran or from Qatar, and from the Daulatabad fields in Turkmenistan for export to world markets.
While India maintains that only issues over the IPI pipeline project are pricing and its commercial viability, Pakistan accuses India of adopting delaying tactics in signing a gas sales purchase agreement involving Iran, Pakistan and India. Iran has also got tired of waiting for New Delhi to come to terms on the proposed IPI project and last year it warned that China was eager to step in on the deal in India's place.
Syed Fazl-e-Haider ([email protected]) is a Quetta-based development analyst in Pakistan. He is the author of six books, including The Economic Development of Balochistan (2004).
Asia Times Online :: South Asia news, business and economy from India and Pakistan
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Pakistan, Iran finally sign gas pipeline accord
By A Reporter
Sunday, 24 May, 2009 | 10:41 PM PST |
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad shakes hands with his Pakistani
counterpart Asif Ali Zardari before convening for a trilateral summit in Tehran.—AFP
ISLAMABAD: After fourteen years of delayed negotiations over the Iran–Pakistan–India (IPI) gas pipeline project, Pakistan and Iran have finally signed the initial agreement in Tehran on Sunday.
The project, termed as the peace pipeline by officials from both countries, has been signed by President Zardari and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran on the sidelines of the tripartite summit on Afghanistan security in Tehran.
However, talking to the Iranian official news agency IRNA the Iran’s Oil Ministry had said that negotiations on the ‘Peace Pipeline’ project were still underway between Iranian and the Pakistani delegations, which would allow Iran’s gas to be exported to Pakistan.
The Pakistani delegation negotiating the project was led by the advisor to the prime Minister on Petroleum Dr Asim Hussain, who is accompanied by petroleum ministry officials and a technical team headed the managing director Inter State gas Systems (ISGC), Syed Hasan Nawab.
The ISGS is a semiautonomous body looking after Pakistani interests in the international gas pipeline projects to import gas from Iran and Turkmenistan.
The federal cabinet had earlier agreed to allow the import of one billion cubic feet of gas at the rate of 80 per cent of the price of crude oil.
‘The next phase was to sign the gas sales purchase agreement with Iran,’ member of the delegation told Dawn.
Official sources said that soon after signing of the gas sales purchase agreement work would start at the designing of the project.
‘Pakistan has already appointed a German designer is ‘ILF’ for the pipeline,’ petroleum ministry sources said, adding that the pipeline would enter Pakistan from its border near Gwader area to Nawabshah, which is the hub of gas pipelines in the country.
The IPI project was conceived in 1995 and after almost 13 years India finally decided to quit the project in 2008 despite a severe energy crises in that country. Pakistan is also facing severe criticism from the US over any kind of economic deal with Iran.
Official sources say that the sudden change of stance from the Pakistani government and the pace of developments at the project suggest that the strong US opposition has softened.
According to the initial design of the project, the 2,700 kilometre-long pipeline would cover around 1,100 kilometres in Iran, 1000 kilometres in Pakistan and around 600 kilometres in India, and the size of the pipeline was estimated to be 56 inches in diameter.
‘We are still hoping that India would join the project but in other case the size of the pipeline would be reduced to 42 inches as initially estimated,’ an official of ISGS said.
However sources in the ISGS said designing and finalising the reports of financial consultants would take up to one year and the work over the project can be started by mid of 2010.The estimated project completion time is between five years.
Sources in the petroleum ministry said that despite cabinet approval Pakistan would negotiate to get the gas prices lowered.
The official report prepared by the petroleum ministry and the ISGS said that the gas would be purchased for power generation and it would enable Pakistan to generate 5,000 megawatts (MW) power.
The petroleum ministry also said that power generation and usage of imported Iranian gas by heavy industries would result in annual saving of up to $1 billion in furnace oil imports, if the crude oil prices are at $50 per barrel.
The reports and calculations forwarded by the ISGS further said that there would be an annual saving of $735 million, compared to if the equivalent quantity of LNG was imported for power generation, and the saving will increase in line with the hike in global crude oil price.
http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect...Pakistan-sign-gas-pipeline-deal-media-szh--07
By A Reporter
Sunday, 24 May, 2009 | 10:41 PM PST |
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad shakes hands with his Pakistani
counterpart Asif Ali Zardari before convening for a trilateral summit in Tehran.—AFP
ISLAMABAD: After fourteen years of delayed negotiations over the Iran–Pakistan–India (IPI) gas pipeline project, Pakistan and Iran have finally signed the initial agreement in Tehran on Sunday.
The project, termed as the peace pipeline by officials from both countries, has been signed by President Zardari and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran on the sidelines of the tripartite summit on Afghanistan security in Tehran.
However, talking to the Iranian official news agency IRNA the Iran’s Oil Ministry had said that negotiations on the ‘Peace Pipeline’ project were still underway between Iranian and the Pakistani delegations, which would allow Iran’s gas to be exported to Pakistan.
The Pakistani delegation negotiating the project was led by the advisor to the prime Minister on Petroleum Dr Asim Hussain, who is accompanied by petroleum ministry officials and a technical team headed the managing director Inter State gas Systems (ISGC), Syed Hasan Nawab.
The ISGS is a semiautonomous body looking after Pakistani interests in the international gas pipeline projects to import gas from Iran and Turkmenistan.
The federal cabinet had earlier agreed to allow the import of one billion cubic feet of gas at the rate of 80 per cent of the price of crude oil.
‘The next phase was to sign the gas sales purchase agreement with Iran,’ member of the delegation told Dawn.
Official sources said that soon after signing of the gas sales purchase agreement work would start at the designing of the project.
‘Pakistan has already appointed a German designer is ‘ILF’ for the pipeline,’ petroleum ministry sources said, adding that the pipeline would enter Pakistan from its border near Gwader area to Nawabshah, which is the hub of gas pipelines in the country.
The IPI project was conceived in 1995 and after almost 13 years India finally decided to quit the project in 2008 despite a severe energy crises in that country. Pakistan is also facing severe criticism from the US over any kind of economic deal with Iran.
Official sources say that the sudden change of stance from the Pakistani government and the pace of developments at the project suggest that the strong US opposition has softened.
According to the initial design of the project, the 2,700 kilometre-long pipeline would cover around 1,100 kilometres in Iran, 1000 kilometres in Pakistan and around 600 kilometres in India, and the size of the pipeline was estimated to be 56 inches in diameter.
‘We are still hoping that India would join the project but in other case the size of the pipeline would be reduced to 42 inches as initially estimated,’ an official of ISGS said.
However sources in the ISGS said designing and finalising the reports of financial consultants would take up to one year and the work over the project can be started by mid of 2010.The estimated project completion time is between five years.
Sources in the petroleum ministry said that despite cabinet approval Pakistan would negotiate to get the gas prices lowered.
The official report prepared by the petroleum ministry and the ISGS said that the gas would be purchased for power generation and it would enable Pakistan to generate 5,000 megawatts (MW) power.
The petroleum ministry also said that power generation and usage of imported Iranian gas by heavy industries would result in annual saving of up to $1 billion in furnace oil imports, if the crude oil prices are at $50 per barrel.
The reports and calculations forwarded by the ISGS further said that there would be an annual saving of $735 million, compared to if the equivalent quantity of LNG was imported for power generation, and the saving will increase in line with the hike in global crude oil price.
http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect...Pakistan-sign-gas-pipeline-deal-media-szh--07
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I initially do not see how this deal is going to be profit-making. The demand from Pakistan will not be that high and now since the pipeline deal has taken it to Pakistan, I doubt whether India would be willing to sign up for it since it gives Pakistan unwanted leverage on our foreign policy.
Also, the security situation in Pakistan is not very good and there is always a chance of saboteurs wanting to blow up the pipeline and creating disturbances for supply to our country. Also, the ISI might even pay up to saboteurs to destroy the pipeline and later claim innocence and no knowledge of the entire issue.
I've read in other forums about this becoming an Iran-Pakistan-China pipeline, but I frankly do not see that happening either.
Firstly, the Himalayas and other mountainous regions are impregnable and hence the putting the pipeline through that will mean a significant amount of money spent which will increase the cost of the gas shipped through the pipeline to unacceptably high levels and I doubt the Chinese willing to pay up so much money for gas when they can possibly get it cheaper out of Myanmar or Vietnam.
Also, Pakistan-China pipeline means that the pipeline will have to go through the mountainous regions such as SWAT, NWFP etc all of which are terror hotbeds and I'm sure that China will be wary of allowing the pipeline through such unstable neighbourhoods. Because, they have a significant Muslim population in their own country, they will be afraid of the instability that the Taliban can cause there and the policy leverage that the Taliban might be given over the Chinese under such circumstances where they have control over the gas flowing into China.
So, all in all, I do not see any feasibility in this pipeline at this moment.
Also, the security situation in Pakistan is not very good and there is always a chance of saboteurs wanting to blow up the pipeline and creating disturbances for supply to our country. Also, the ISI might even pay up to saboteurs to destroy the pipeline and later claim innocence and no knowledge of the entire issue.
I've read in other forums about this becoming an Iran-Pakistan-China pipeline, but I frankly do not see that happening either.
Firstly, the Himalayas and other mountainous regions are impregnable and hence the putting the pipeline through that will mean a significant amount of money spent which will increase the cost of the gas shipped through the pipeline to unacceptably high levels and I doubt the Chinese willing to pay up so much money for gas when they can possibly get it cheaper out of Myanmar or Vietnam.
Also, Pakistan-China pipeline means that the pipeline will have to go through the mountainous regions such as SWAT, NWFP etc all of which are terror hotbeds and I'm sure that China will be wary of allowing the pipeline through such unstable neighbourhoods. Because, they have a significant Muslim population in their own country, they will be afraid of the instability that the Taliban can cause there and the policy leverage that the Taliban might be given over the Chinese under such circumstances where they have control over the gas flowing into China.
So, all in all, I do not see any feasibility in this pipeline at this moment.
We should enter this deal from a position of strength. We are the only large buyer available to Iran and they have to recognize this fact and not try to be extortionate.
And Pakistan should be given the routine charges for wheeling the gas. They can't charge us for the security which they anyway need for their own usage.
And Pakistan should be given the routine charges for wheeling the gas. They can't charge us for the security which they anyway need for their own usage.
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I agree with F-14, gives Pakistan too much leverage on us... should not be done...
As a counter balance, we might have to build dams on all rivers going into Pakistan just in case and ready to shut the tap on them in case they try anything underhand...
Well, the Pakistanis are claiming that we have already done that.
Yes, I agree that we need to control their water to make them shut down their terror tap and any thoughts of using the gas lever against us.
India does need energy and the Iran gas is one of the few options we have.
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They also claim that they're descendants of Arabs and Gengis Khan... I give no credence to their claims...
But, first, we need to scrap their water treaty... but, then again we have to look out for China, because China may just decide to play us with the Brahmaputra card...
We have to consider all options before we do anything...
I don't think we need to scrap it. We can do our stuff without being explicit about it.They also claim that they're descendants of Arabs and Gengis Khan... I give no credence to their claims...
But, first, we need to scrap their water treaty... but, then again we have to look out for China, because China may just decide to play us with the Brahmaputra card...
We have to consider all options before we do anything...
Chinese can't do anything with Brahmaputra. They have burned their hands already with the three gorges dam. The earthquake took its toll too.
Should keep them busy for the time being. Its not easy altering the course of such a mighty river in the face of mighty opposition. Many of the tributaries of Brahmaputra pass from India which we can block if required.
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What if he blocks anywhere on that single dark blue stretch on that map (Yarlung Tsangpo) ??? We won't get any water then... and, he can legitimately block there because it is his own country (even though it is Tibet)
And, just by being discrete do you think that the Chinese won't notice what we are doing, and you also think that the Pakistanis will also not notice ???
The Pakistanis will go crying to their Momma and Momma will intervene...
They can't just block it. They have to also conduct massive civil works to be able to use this water elsewhere. Its a project that will take decades! There is no indication that anything is in the works. The Chinese can't pull it off, nor are they planning to, by any indications.
What if he blocks anywhere on that single dark blue stretch on that map (Yarlung Tsangpo) ??? We won't get any water then... and, he can legitimately block there because it is his own country (even though it is Tibet)
And, just by being discrete do you think that the Chinese won't notice what we are doing, and you also think that the Pakistanis will also not notice ???
The Pakistanis will go crying to their Momma and Momma will intervene...
I don't accept that the Chinese are arbiters between India and Pakistan. They may notice and go to hell with it. If Pakistan carries out terror against India, we have every right to use every option available to us and China can do squat about it.
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China does a lot of things that don't seem plausible... they throw nuclear weapons around the whole world, they sell planes to rogue nations... do you think building a dam just to trouble us will be too difficult for him ??? Their Central Committee will be itching to give them money if it is just to trouble us...
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Anyways, let's stick to the discussion here... Post only related to the Iran Pakistan gas pipeline...
johnee
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EM,
building dams is more difficult than prolifirating business. Building dams requires proper geography, and other factors, As Vinod has pointed out, those factors are now against building a dam there. Further, China doesnt seem to be concentrating on that aspect.
