INS Vishal (IAC- II) Aircraft Carrier - Flattop or Ski Jump

[p2prada]

Meaning it will be finished a lot sooner since only ~60 are planned for the French Navy. By the time India gets around to holding an IAC II fighter competition (say, 2020), the F-35C will likely be the only competitor in mass production. Rafale M might still be a possibility, but India would have to pay top-dollar for a low-volume product that's middle-aged.

Rafale's production line is busy as of today for 180 units and this will go on until 2018, including M.

New orders will be placed in a few years for another 100+ units and production will continue on for another decade after that.
This is apart from India's orders for 126 and a highly likely UAE's order for 60. Rafale M will be in production well after IAF receives all 126 aircraft.

IN tender will most likely be released after 2015, maybe more, with at least 5 years before a contract is signed. Since we don't really have the money for current projects and the IN isn't placing carriers on top of the priority list.

The IN tender is the only chance for the F-35 to see service in India.

 

[p2prada]

IN has expressed firm requirement of 42 NLCA. Dunno where will they be used. IAC2.................

Gorky and Vikrant of course. LCA is only STOBAR.

Not all LCAs will see service on the carriers. IN is setting up new land based airstrips.

IAC2 will be CATOBAR.

 

[lookieloo]

New orders will be placed in a few years for another 100+ units...

Other than India, by whom and for which model? Why the hell would the UAE buy the M?

 

[p2prada]

Other than India, by whom and for which model? Why the hell would the UAE buy the M?

I don't think we are on the same page.

UAE and India aren't buying Rafale-Ms. The orders will be for Rafale Bs and Cs, air force version. The point is the potential production run is good enough for Dassault to maintain the line for M even if the MN does not place new orders for it.

A mix of M, B and C will be placed again since the French want a fleet of nearly 300 Rafales, up from the 180 on order today. Both ALA and MN (French Navy). Another 100+ orders at 8-12 a year equates to a decade or more of production.

If you are thinking Rafale-M won't be in production in 2025, then you are mistaken. The potential orders from India alone could be above 300, if we combine IAF and IN. Kuwait and Qatar are expected to follow suit with Rafale orders once UAE does, that much is guaranteed and the numbers between these three countries will be around 120.

Posting a guaranteed orders - potential orders list here.

France - 180 guaranteed - 114 potential = 294 in total.
India - 126 (IAF) - +63 (needs some more confirmation). These are nearly guaranteed. Potential orders are 80 for the Navy and 20-40 for SFC. = 309 in total. Not counting any future orders IAF may place in tranches like they did for other aircraft in the past.
UAE - 60 nearly guaranteed.

Potential
Kuwait - 24 to 36.
Qatar- 24 to 36.

Brazil - 36 to 120.

So, with a nearly guaranteed production run of 429 (equivalent to EF/SH sales) and a potential sale of 855 (exceeds SH and EF) you think Dassault cannot manage keeping assembly lines operational in 2025?

 

[lookieloo]

I don't think we are on the same page... If you are thinking Rafale-M won't be in production in 2025, then you are mistaken...

How so? Do you know something no one else does?

 

[p2prada]

How so? Do you know something no one else does?

Open source info. Potential future orders for Rafale M is 12, one more squadron, to be manufactured from 2019.

I think Dassault delivers at least 2 or 3 a year to MN. I am not 100% sure about the exact number. So you can guess how long 12 will take.

 

[lookieloo]

Open source info. Potential future orders for Rafale M is 12, one more squadron, to be manufactured from 2019.

Potential orders and no source? Is that all you have for me? Have you been paying any attention to trends in European defense spending? France isn't going to order more M unless they build another carrier, which is looking less and less likely.

My whole point is that unless REAL action is taken soon, the F-35C will be the only CATOBAR fighter in production by the time holding a tender for IAC II is practical. Vendors don't make long-lead purchases with "potential" money.

 

[Crusader53]

India has a bleak chance of going for a PAK FA and F-35 config due to the very fact that both are different aircrafts and would require immense logistical supports to maintain..in which case the PAK FA seems to have a higher probability of being accepted..Secondly, ya even I agree that the AMCA should be a 6th gen stuff..Its not that I am against the F-35 being taken for consideration but the problem with the US goods is they come with too many barriers to operate, I mean in case of a conflict with India's western neighbour the F-35s might face a situation where the system might not allow Indian pilots to take down the US-made aircraft they use, given the similarity with the systems..until the US supplies India with the source codes to change configurations..which is highly unlikely...The Russian stuff scores over that coz somehow the end-user law is not that stringent for India in their case, ofcourse there is a chance that they might sell the PAK FA to China, but aircrafts will have different source codes and ofcourse local customisations, which will make the difference...since future warfare will be more based on these little changes

Therefore, Indian orders for US made stuff as of now and probably in future might just remain confined to transport aircraft and smaller batches of combat aircraft...

Well, the US is the largest arms producer in the world and you don't see any of its customers complaining about such restriction. As for what India purchases for the US in the future. I think you will be surprised.

 

[p2prada]

Potential orders and no source? Is that all you have for me? Have you been paying any attention to trends in European defense spending? France isn't going to order more M unless they build another carrier, which is looking less and less likely.

My whole point is that unless REAL action is taken soon, the F-35C will be the only CATOBAR fighter in production by the time holding a tender for IAC II is practical. Vendors don't make long-lead purchases with "potential" money.

The French requirement is for 294 aircraft. They place orders in tranches, the last order was placed a few years ago for 60 aircraft. Once the F3+ are delivered, the French will place another order and so on.

The Russians and Indians do the same. We started with 200 Mig-21s and ended up with 950 at the end of the production cycle. We started with 50 MKIs and ended up with 272 over 4 different orders. And so on.

So assuming the French will not place their final order only shows your own lack of awareness of how these things progress.
Something out of the ordinary should happen to prevent the orders from being placed. That would be news. There was news in Dec 2011 that no new orders will be placed unless an export order was secured, just a month later, Rafale was selected as L1 in India.

Vendors do make long lead purchases based on potentials. LM is a fitting example of how they are trying to prove F-35 will be cheap "if" around 3000 are purchased.

I already gave you a list of guaranteed purchases, just getting those done will take forever. Rafale-M will be an in production aircraft or ready for production aircraft in 2025 simply because it shares the assembly lines with the air force version which has orders until then.

Anyway, to answer your question on how soon can IN place orders, it will be well before 2025 since we plan on having an operational CATOBAR carrier by then. The ship is in its design phase now, even if construction starts after 2015, we will need the aircraft a few years before the carrier is operational.

Assuming the Navy tender is released in 2015, followed by flight tests until 2018, contract can be signed by 2020 with delivery in 3 years as usual.

 

[p2prada]

@Decklander

Any thoughts on which aircraft you would prefer between Rafale and F-35 for IAC-2?

Also according to this article,

No India jet fighter deal before end March: minister | Reuters

One of the sources said France's Rafale jet was the likely winner, adding that the defense ministry was now considering buying another 80 or so jets and could invite bidders excluded from the current process to take part.

It seems to be hinting at the Naval tender.

 

[lookieloo]

The French requirement is for 294 aircraft...

Long since reduced to 180, including a French naval requirement for only 60. You seem to keep forgetting that we're talking about the M model only here, which is being built to serve the needs of one (count 'em, ONE) fairly small carrier. There's simply no reason for the French navy to order more once their run is finished.

 

[p2prada]

Long since reduced to 180,

No. The plan is still for 294. The French senate openly revealed budget info for 286 aircraft at a cost of 44 Billion Euros.

with a French naval requirement for only 60. You seem to keep forgetting that we're talking about the M model only here, which is being built to serve the needs of one (count 'em, ONE) fairly small carrier. There's simply no reason for the French navy to order more once their run is finished.

60 Rafale-Ms for a carrier where not more than 10 Rafale Ms are deployed. Are you kidding me?

I am not forgetting anything. Rafale's current orders are enough to maintain production lines far beyond your 2025 figure.

Btw, the French requirement is indeed for 60, but only 48 have been ordered to date.

The remaining 12 will be built after 2021 (new date). 2018 was an old date and was revised with a new production timetable.

This article will clear your misconceptions.
Mark Collins - Rafale Hits Stormy Weather (but takes cool pix)

Dassault Aviation will end production of its Rafale combat fighter jet if France does not land any export orders, the country's defense minister said on Wednesday [Dec. 6].

Construction would not stop until Dassault has completed an order from the French army for 180 planes, Gerard Longuet said. The last delivery is expected in 2021.

The Indian order or even a UAE order will pave the way open for the ALA and MN to buy more Rafales.

So at 2-3 a year, starting from 2021-2022, they will have Rafale-Ms in production well into the decade.

As I said, they order in tranches, so expect more to be ordered. An order for 60 was placed only in 2009 and it is to go on until 2021.

Also, even if MN does not order any more Rafale-Ms, it means nothing since the production line can still swallow the costs for maintaining a production line of 2 or 3 aircraft a year while expecting an order for 80 more Rafale-Ms by 2025.

 

[lookieloo]

60 Rafale-Ms for a carrier where not more than 10 Rafale Ms are deployed. Are you kidding me?

Seems like a lot, but it really isn't when accounting a comfortable margin for testing, training, maintenance, and attrition. Also, assuming India orders planes for the IAC II before 2021, I rather doubt 2-3 per year will be satisfactory.

 

[p2prada]

Seems like a lot, but it really isn't when accounting a comfortable margin for testing, training, maintenance, and attrition.

They don't need 6x the numbers for training, reserves and attrition. Else USN would need 3000 SHs.

At best 2 as reserve and 2 trainers for each squadron. That's 4 extra for a 12 aircraft squadron.

Also, assuming India orders planes for the IAC II before 2021, I rather doubt 2-3 per year will be satisfactory.

They can expand based on orders. Their production line allows expansion, but we don't know by how much. We may take over Rafale-M production in India for IN, if the French cannot deliver.

Anyway I doubt we would push orders to 2021, we may even end up releasing the IN RFP next year. RFI was sent out at least 3 years ago.

Anyway, the 2-3 per year figure is for MN, while it is 8 for ALA. OTOH, IAF would want anywhere between 14-20 / year.

 

[lookieloo]

They don't need 6x the numbers for training, reserves and attrition. Else USN would need 3000 SHs.

RFI was sent out at least 3 years ago.

1. There's a critical-mass factor to consider; so while the USN does not require 3000 SH for 10-11 carriers, the MN does require 60 Rafale M for just one.

2. I've heard nothing about an IN RFP for CATOBAR types; in fact, it's only meen fairly recently that they've started to firm-up the IAC II as such.

 

[Decklander]

@Decklander

Any thoughts on which aircraft you would prefer between Rafale and F-35 for IAC-2?

Also according to this article,

No India jet fighter deal before end March: minister | Reuters


It seems to be hinting at the Naval tender.

The requirement of fighters for replacing Sea Harrier and for equipping two Aircraft carriers, Vikramaditya and IAC-1 has been met by importing 46 Mig-29Ks/KUBs and N-LCA. IAC-2 will be a CATOBAR config so we have no requirment for more of these aircraft or for that matter even F-35. If Rafale deal goes thru, we will have about 36 Rafale-M for IN but if it does not, Than we will see more N-LCA being ordered.

 

[p2prada]

The requirement of fighters for replacing Sea Harrier and for equipping two Aircraft carriers, Vikramaditya and IAC-1 has been met by importing 46 Mig-29Ks/KUBs and N-LCA. IAC-2 will be a CATOBAR config so we have no requirment for more of these aircraft or for that matter even F-35. If Rafale deal goes thru, we will have about 36 Rafale-M for IN but if it does not, Than we will see more N-LCA being ordered.

I was more inclined to know your opinion based on the technical merits of the two aircraft.

Your analysis of F-35C and Rafale-M to be exact.

Also did I read right when you said the IAF Rafale deal will be linked to INs requirement rather than release a whole new tender for it?

 

[p2prada]

1. There's a critical-mass factor to consider; so while the USN does not require 3000 SH for 10-11 carriers, the MN does require 60 Rafale M for just one.

You are forgetting entirely about MN's land base requirements. No Navy has their entire air force on one or two ships alone.

2. I've heard nothing about an IN RFP for CATOBAR types; in fact, it's only meen fairly recently that they've started to firm-up the IAC II as such.

Obviously nothing's official until it is official.

STOBAR options are in plenty. We already have two options in the Mig-29 and LCA.

Since IAC-II is gonna be CATOBAR, we will obviously need CATOBAR capable aircraft.

RFIs and RFPs can always be redrawn or withdrawn, as was in the IAF's case.

 

[lookieloo]

RFIs and RFPs can always be redrawn or withdrawn...

The IN can do that as much as they want, but if they don't take palpable action soon (aka "spend real money"), they'll be stuck with the F-35C as their only option. Call me cynical, but I doubt India has the chutzpah for that.

 

[Decklander]

I was more inclined to know your opinion based on the technical merits of the two aircraft.

Your analysis of F-35C and Rafale-M to be exact.

Also did I read right when you said the IAF Rafale deal will be linked to INs requirement rather than release a whole new tender for it?

F-35 VSTOL version is not needed by IN. The CATOBAR version has serious design issues. of the MMRCA contendors, only Rafale has a marine version. IN had nearly gone in for another 45 MIG-29Ks when Rafale was announced L-1. So IN decided to have a relook. Rafale-M in its present form can operate from both SATOBAR & CATOBAR carriers.
Between Rafale and F-35, Rafale is a far better choice due to two engines more load and range.