a must read article on indo - russian realtionship.
The Emerging India-Russia Strategic Equation
By Brig Vinod Anand (Retd) Published : December 2009
The latest visit of Prime Minster Manmohan Singh to Moscow has cleared many of the cobwebs which had come to symbolize a certain cooling of Indo- Russian relationship. Despite a flurry of visits to and fro by the political leadership of both countries this year and in the past, a perception had grown that the Indo-Russian strategic equation remains weak and adrift.
While it was realized by both the sides that it is unlikely to reach the erstwhile pinnacle in the times of the Soviet Union yet the leadership in both India and Russia remained committed to reinvigorating the bilateral relationship. With the conclusion of a civil nuclear agreement with Russia which is much more beneficial to India compared to the still on-hold agreement with the US, Dr Manmohan Singh has a reason to be proud of. Clearing the muddy waters on the issue of the price of Groshkov aircraft carrier also indicates a willingness of both the sides to invest in strengthening their defence and strategic.
Earlier this year, Indian President Pratibha Patil had paid a visit to Russia in September accompanied by a large delegation. She had brushed aside the charge that India was moving away from Russia, and also remarked that New Delhi’s ties with Moscow are on strong foundations and “will not be at the expense of its relationship with other countries.” This was an indication of realisation among the Indian polity that India’s attempts at cozying up to the US may have had the effect of somewhat distancing away from close ties with Russia.
Dr Singh’s visit to Russia has come at a time when there are significant changes taking place on the geo-political firmament. US President George Bush, who had been pursuing a closer relationship with India in many ways, has now been replaced by the Obama administration which has different views on nuclear issues. Further, there is a perception that the US is softer on China and there could be a G 2 condominium evolving in Asian security dynamics.
In this background, Dr Singh has stressed during his Kremlin press conference that “India accords highest priority to its relations with Russia.
This is a relationship which stands on its own footing and is not influenced by our relations with any other country”, (read the US).
While speaking on the nuclear issue, President Dmitry Medvedev observed that nuclear cooperation has “very big, very good future”. He was hopeful that the agreement on nuclear cooperation will pave the way for greater cooperation in the years to come.
Sale of billions of dollars worth of reactors and allied equipment to India would definitely give a fillip to the Russian economy. Guaranteed supply of fuel and transfer of enrichment technologies are the clauses of the agreement which add strategic value and worth to the nuclear deal for India.
Earlier in 2007, a memorandum of intent to add four units to the nuclear power plant under construction at Kudankulam in Tamil Nadu was signed during Preident’s Putin visit as the chief guest at our Republic Day Parade.
Thanks to the NSG waiver, for which admittedly the US did a lot of backstage maneuvering, these plants are now being operationalised. Russia was one of the first among eight or so countries which have in the last one year signed the civil nuclear energy cooperation agreements with India.
A preliminary agreement between India and Russia was signed last December during President Medvedev’s visit; it needs to be remembered that Moscow has been consistently committed to developing India’s civilian nuclear capacity. The latest agreement also opens the way for about 20 or so Russian nuclear reactors to be established in India.
Emerging relationship between the two nations is also buttressed by the fact that there is a vast potential for expansion of cooperation in the fields of hydrocarbons, military technical cooperation, space and information technology in addition to the civil nuclear cooperation.
For bilateral trade, the target set for 2015 is $ 20 billion. Though, considering the present level of $7 billion of trade, this target is very ambitious.
There is a perception among some strategic circles that Russia is a declining power because of its negative demographic trends and its natural resource based economy which relies heavily on oil and gas sector besides defence exports. Thus, according to such a formulation, the Russian economy has little strength, lacks depth and is highly vulnerable to oil price swings and vagaries of the market.
What needs to be seen however is that the Russian and Indian economies have many complementarities and they have not been fully exploited so far due to geo-political and geographical environments. Cooperation in hydrocarbon and defence sectors besides in areas of high technology and space where Russia has proven strength remains of crucial importance for India to develop its comprehensive national power. The goal set for bilateral trade of $20 billion is an achievable target if concerted efforts are made in this direction.
The most enduring strategic relationship between Russia and India has been in the field of defence cooperation. Defence Minister AK Antony was in Russia mid-October for the 9th meeting of the annual Defence Minister-level India-Russia Inter Governmental Commission on Military Technical Cooperation (IRIGCMTC). It needs to be understood that no country in the world would lease its nuclear submarine to another nation which Russia did for the Indian Navy.
Another fact which needs to be noted is that while China in the immediate aftermath of the Soviet Union collapse was quick to engage highly qualified Russian scientists and engineers for giving fillip to its indigenous defence industry, India failed to exploit such an opportunity due to bureaucratic apathy.
However, Chinese do claim and complain that Russia does not give the latest technologies to them; for instance the version of SU 30 given to China is inferior to the one given to India. And Moscow has also complained that Beijing is stealing Russian technology in weapons and sophisticated systems.
As for Russia and India, Development of the next generation hypersonic Cruise Missiles - BrahMos- II, integration of the BrahMos with the SU 30MKI, modernisation of the frontline SU 30MKI and the indigenous production of Russian origin T-90S tanks were the issues that were part of the discussions at the Ninth meeting of IRIGC-MTC held in October this year during Defence Minister Antony’s visit to Moscow.
No doubt there have been delays and cost escalations in most of the projects but as the conclusion of the price agreement on Groshkov on the eve of the Prime Minister’s visit shows, a via media can be found if both sides have a political and strategic understanding.
Apart from the civil nuclear energy pact, three agreements in defence have been signed to remove existing bottlenecks and areas of friction and to enhance joint development and production. During Dr Singh’s visit to Russia in November 2007, the Inter-Governmental Agreement on Multi-role Transport Aircraft (MTA) was signed; this time it was revitalised.
India hopes to tie up a time-frame in which the development phase of the Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) is completed by 2016, so that induction of the aircraft into the IAF can start by 2017.
Given the recent history of delays in production in Russia, this timeframe appears to be quite ambitious. Nevertheless even India’s own procurement process despite a number of revisions and amendments has not been able to overcome its own procurement and acquisition woes. The fact that the fighter and transport aircraft would be inducted by both Russian and Indian air forces also underscores the importance attached by both the countries to their burgeoning defence relationship.
The other two defence agreements signed were for extension of military technical cooperation for another ten years and yet another initiative to streamline the supply of spares for Russian origin equipment.
In the global and regional context while the recognition by the Americans of India as a major emerging power has been of recent origin, the Russians had recognized the Indian potential much before.
During Boris Yelstin’s decade of 1990s in the wake of Soviet Union’s demise, the Indo-Russian equation did weaken. However, when President Putin appeared on the scene a concerted effort by both the nations was made to cooperate at the international level.
Prime Minister Yevgany Primakov had initiated the idea of a strategic triangle between Russia, India and China. Foreign Ministers of the three nations have been meeting regularly to find a common ground on the issues of multilateralism, climate change, economic and development issues.
The last such meeting was held in Bangalore, India in October this year. However the positive resonance of such meetings has been marred by the strategic tensions between China and India or rather to quote Prime Minister Manmohan Singh “by mounting assertiveness of China”.
Russia and India also have a common approach to the regional issues, the most important being that of the threat of instability and terrorism originating from the Af- Pak region. Moscow had organized a conference on Afghanistan under the auspices of SCO end-March which was attended among others by India also. The conference underscored the importance of sustained international efforts to achieve a stable, peaceful, prosperous and democratic Afghanistan and stressed that such assistance should be comprehensive under the leadership of Afghanistan and the central role of the UN in coordinating international assistance and based on strict adherence of the UN Charter.
While the US has also advocated a regional approach to Afghan issue yet nothing substantial has been done on the ground. Threat from a resurgent Taliban remains real; Russia and India along with other neighbours of Afghanistan share a mutual concern on the downward spiral of the Afghan crisis.
Russian and Indian cooperation would be of vital importance to stabilize the situation in Afghanistan. During a joint conference both Dr Singh and President Medvedev emphasized the importance of intelligence sharing, securing a Global Comprehensive Convention on Counter-Terrorism and using instrumentalities to pressure countries giving shelter to terrorist activity (read Pakistan).
Concerned with the global economic meltdown Russia and India also came together on the platform of BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) to find alternative paths to reviving economy. The BRIC summit was held in June in tandem with the SCO summit. Russia was very keen that India’s Prime Minister attends the SCO meet also. Generally, the Minister for Oil and Natural Resources has been attending SCO summits as India is only an observer and not a full participant.
Observers are not given access to summit’s deliberations. This time the SCO’s deliberations had Indian PM included.
Further, access to the energy markets of Central Asia remains the leit motif of India’s energy security strategy and cooperation with Russia in hydro carbon sector could be of mutual benefit to both. But the unstable situation in the Af-Pak region is a big stumbling block.
Yet, there is an enormous potential for India and Russia to cooperate in the gas and oil sector like it has been done in the case of Sakhalin I. India has been keen to acquire stake in Sakhalin III
Russia would continue to remain central to India’s endeavours in developing its comprehensive national power and in engagement of the evolving international system.
There is a congruence of approaches between the two countries on most of the issues of globalization, terrorism, centrality of the UN system and the need for a multi-polar system rather than the current unilateral dispensation.
The Indian Prime Minister’s visit to Russia is a reflection of the constants of all-weather bilateral relationship. Getting into strategic partnerships at the drop of hat has almost become a fashion in the current international strategic milieu
but most of these are in form only. The momentum of strategic drift between India and Russia has been reversed with Dr Manmohan Singh’s visit to Russia. Nonetheless, more political and diplomatic energy needs to be spent on engaging Russia in this uncertain and evolving world where India is working towards achieving the ever elusive but the much cherished goal of ‘strategic autonomy’.
The author is a Senior Fellow at USI-Centre for Strategic Studies and Analysis, New Delhi.
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