India's Nuclear Weapons Program 1944-1999 : Full History Must Read !!!

[warrior monk]

With the current stock, we can do the testing. India will only conduct test, once the economy reaches close to 5-6 trillion nominal or there is a chance of greater conflict in the region.

It can only happen when we are self sufficient in strategic as well as non strategic military sectors . We can't even manufacture aircraft engines , we need help from Israel in our AESA radar and the dependent on foreign weapons by our defense forces will prevent this from ever happening . Until we have atleast 95 % indigenization in defence we cannot test , look what happened to our LCA programme after 1998 tests.

 

[Screambowl]

It can only happen when we are self sufficient in strategic as well as non strategic military sectors . We can't even manufacture aircraft engines , we need help from Israel in our AESA radar and the dependent on foreign weapons by our defense forces will prevent this from ever happening . Until we have atleast 95 % indigenization in defence we cannot test , look what happened to our LCA programme after 1998 tests.

Inadequate funding in research at Universities and other institutions is the cause.

 

[warrior monk]

Inadequate funding in research at Universities and other institutions is the cause.

also because i think DRDO tries to make everything between mosquito repellent to ICBMs we should seriously diversify .

 

[no smoking]

Yes China had Yinhe-1 revealed in 1983 i give you that but it was only 100 million flops per second and India had world's second fastest supercomputer of 5 Gigaflops by 1991.

Yes, but that was 1983. And then....
1992, Yinhe-2, 1Gigaflops;
1995, Shuguang-1000, 2.5 Gigaflops;
1997, Yinhe-3, 13 Gigaflops.

In the case of India, no, 5 Gigalops was achieved by Param 8600 which was the improvement of Param 8000. Even this I still doubt it, because the top speed of Param 10000 unveiled 7 years later was only 6.5 gigflops. After 7 years, only 1.5 gigflops increase seems not right.

But, anyway, based on these public information, if you believe India can get her supercomputer ready in 1998 for nuclear bomb, then certainly we can say Chinese had a powerful enough supercomputer in 1996.

Secondly China like US has signed CTBT but not ratified it and has not been sending any data to CTBTO in Vienna as far as 2013 so get off the moral high ground. I never said India can simulate full spectrum weapons but 5 to 6 designs upto 250 Kt which confirms our current deterrence not future deterrence . India has 4 stage thermonuclear designs of multi megatonne yield but those need hot testing before cold testing can begin which the p5 can do and India doesn't claim it can so stop panicking.

Well, that is what I have been trying to tell your countrymen here: India need at least one more test.

Even boosted warheads can be made of 750 kt no need for thermonuclear warhead which can be designed but lack of fissile material prevents us.

No, you are not lacking fissile material. The things that prevent you is: time, technology and international pressure.

Our 3rd round of nuclear testing will begin after enough plutonium has been generated and after we have half a dozen breeder reactors and we are plutonium sufficient and our thorium reactors have started.

That is not true. Chinese accumulated enough material for 6 nuclear explosions including one H-Bomb in 9 years. With far better technologies and equipment, after 17 years since 1998, India still can't get enough material for next test? That is ridiculous.

 

[Screambowl]

also because i think DRDO tries to make everything between mosquito repellent to ICBMs we should seriously diversify .

Yes, but after the nutrino lab in TN, India will boost it's research capabilities multi-folds. This lab is very important in almost every field of research for us.

1) astrophysics
2) nuclear
3) quantum
4) general applied physics and chem.
5) production of equipments and supercomputer to support the research.

 

[warrior monk]

Yes, but that was 1983. And then....
1992, Yinhe-2, 1Gigaflops;
1995, Shuguang-1000, 2.5 Gigaflops;
1997, Yinhe-3, 13 Gigaflops.

In the case of India, no, 5 Gigalops was achieved by Param 8600 which was the improvement of Param 8000. Even this I still doubt it, because the top speed of Param 10000 unveiled 7 years later was only 6.5 gigflops. After 7 years, only 1.5 gigflops increase seems not right.

But, anyway, based on these public information, if you believe India can get her supercomputer ready in 1998 for nuclear bomb, then certainly we can say Chinese had a powerful enough supercomputer in 1996.




Well, that is what I have been trying to tell your countrymen here: India need at least one more test.



No, you are not lacking fissile material. The things that prevent you is: time, technology and international pressure.






That is not true. Chinese accumulated enough material for 6 nuclear explosions including one H-Bomb in 9 years. With far better technologies and equipment, after 17 years since 1998, India still can't get enough material for next test? That is ridiculous.

Nobody is denying Chinese supercomputing capabilities and you don't even require multi gigaflop computers for simulation and India like China could simulate nuclear explosions by mid to late nineties in supercomputers not a big deal.
As far as plutonium is concerned we have enough plutonium for many multi megatonne tests but what i meant was when and if India tests it will be sanctioned and India needs those plutonium for its MOX U-Pu breeders India is building not just for nuclear testing which we already have much more than we need.

 

[no smoking]

Nobody is denying Chinese supercomputing capabilities and you don't even require multi gigaflop computers for simulation and India like China could simulate nuclear explosions by mid to late nineties in supercomputers not a big deal.

So, it proves you are wrong when you claim that India was the third country of applying supercomputer in nuclear bomb design but number 6 at the best.

And India can't simulate nuclear explosions like P5 simply because your scientists need at least one more test to verify your simulation model if we assume your scientists can build up such a model based on the date from less than 6 nuclear tests, not to mention only one thermonuclear device. The least tests made by P5 was China and UK--46 each. They did so many tests for good reason, not simply for political show.

It is a big deal for your own country, which decides billions of dollars budget and your country's international status in next 30 years--a country with H-bomb and ability to design next generation nuclear bomb in computer will be a much higher position in current world order. But now, the rest of world don't believe it.

 

[Khagesh]

That is not true. Chinese accumulated enough material for 6 nuclear explosions including one H-Bomb in 9 years. With far better technologies and equipment, after 17 years since 1998, India still can't get enough material for next test? That is ridiculous.

We have enough for onlly 100 warheads which is lesser than even Pakistan, let alone China.

The least tests made by P5 was China and UK--46 each. They did so many tests for good reason, not simply for political show.

It is a big deal for your own country, which decides billions of dollars budget and your country's international status in next 30 years--a country with H-bomb and ability to design next generation nuclear bomb in computer will be a much higher position in current world order. But now, the rest of world don't believe it.

Wrong most of these tests were made for political show only. The scientists used whatever data they got out of these. That is how the Big 2 gathered so many test shots. Brits wanted it only because they wanted to be equal to Russians (centuries old habit) and French required it only to have insurance against Germany (very remote future) while China needed it because Chinese leadership knew that they would be back-stabbing everybody they deal with in future.

And count does not count because with each shot you got only one more step up on the basic edge of the experimental envelope. Something like Sergie Bubka breaking world records. Only the last record for Sergie counts as the real records and one more for having so many times broken his own prior records. Similarly for the experimetal purposes only the latest series of datas that can be gathered from the 'outlier' experiments are useful.

Compared to your bull, there were exceedingly well informed, probably well connected and very knowledgeable Indian critics/commentors on the net some years back (highly respected among Indian Defence Fanboys) who used to doubt the 200 kt TN because of the underlying doubts on the Shakti 1 but even they had changed their stances significantly later on. Mind you these guys used to speak with data and had been bitter critics of BARC in general and R. Chidambram in particular. The experimental data that is needed is well placed for BARC and they have stated so. They will do as much simulation as they think is necessary when they feel like.

We do need one more test but that has nothing to do with limitations in simulation. That has everything to do with near NIL possibility of scaling up the Shakti-1 beyond 200/250 Kt. No modification will allow Shakti-1 to go beyond that limit, again something stated clearly by Indian Scientists. That test devise was not intended to seed a warhead beyond 200/250 kt.

I am not sure if we need to go beyond that either. Infact I think the best approach for us would be to make super light boosted fission ones because that gives one of the best 'bang per unit mass per unit volume'.

 

[no smoking]

We have enough for onlly 100 warheads which is lesser than even Pakistan, let alone China.

That is not true. You already build up 100+ warheads and the number is still growing. I don't see why India has not enough material for more test.

Wrong most of these tests were made for political show only. The scientists used whatever data they got out of these. That is how the Big 2 gathered so many test shots. Brits wanted it only because they wanted to be equal to Russians (centuries old habit) and French required it only to have insurance against Germany (very remote future) while China needed it because Chinese leadership knew that they would be back-stabbing everybody they deal with in future.

Wrong again. It maybe true for USA and USSR, but not in the case of UK and China. Based on the book of some Chinese scientists, their budget was always so little that they had to do their best to make sure each of tests can server as many experimental objects as they can. 46 is almost the minimum times they need to push their design to current level. Simply they don't have resource to do this kind of political show.

By the way, the French nuclear program had nothing to do with Germany, they just don't believe American's nuclear umbrella.

And count does not count because with each shot you got only one more step up on the basic edge of the experimental envelope. Something like Sergie Bubka breaking world records. Only the last record for Sergie counts as the real records and one more for having so many times broken his own prior records. Similarly for the experimetal purposes only the latest series of datas that can be gathered from the 'outlier' experiments are useful.

No, each test helps scientists improve their understanding of nuclear reaction. There is no way you can sort out the whole area in just couple of tests.

Compared to your bull, there were exceedingly well informed, probably well connected and very knowledgeable Indian critics/commentors on the net some years back (highly respected among Indian Defence Fanboys) who used to doubt the 200 kt TN because of the underlying doubts on the Shakti 1 but even they had changed their stances significantly later on. Mind you these guys used to speak with data and had been bitter critics of BARC in general and R. Chidambram in particular. The experimental data that is needed is well placed for BARC and they have stated so. They will do as much simulation as they think is necessary when they feel like.

Comparing your knowledgeable Indian critics/commenters, I have read the book of even more knowledgeable American/Russian/Chinese nuclear scientists. From these books, I learned what is necessary to build up a simulation model on nuclear weapons.

Furthermore, I have always assume that Indian scientists did collected enough data in one single shot somehow (which scientists of P5 failed to do so) and create the model successfully. They still need one more test so they can compare the simulated result to actual test data to prove the accuracy of the model.

We do need one more test but that has nothing to do with limitations in simulation. That has everything to do with near NIL possibility of scaling up the Shakti-1 beyond 200/250 Kt. No modification will allow Shakti-1 to go beyond that limit, again something stated clearly by Indian Scientists. That test devise was not intended to seed a warhead beyond 200/250 kt.

Well, the scientists from the rest of world just think an explosion under 200/250kt is not enough to prove your design. But, of course, Indian scientists may smart out others.

I am not sure if we need to go beyond that either. Infact I think the best approach for us would be to make super light boosted fission ones because that gives one of the best 'bang per unit mass per unit volume'.

As long as India still sticks to "No first use" policy, the target of your warheads will always be those big cities instead of military objects. So you will definitely need the big bombs to kill as much people as you can--You won't have numbers to kill enemy's military force after nuclear retaliation.

 

[Compersion]

Tissue Anyone: When there is a sudden sneeze one always looks for tissue. Sometimes the sneeze makes the body feel fresh and sometimes it is emotional reasons a tissue is used and there is no sneeze.

How would a country conduct a nuclear test under the current international regimes. One has seen a few examples.

1) Exit the NPT and conduct the test. (ie. North Korea)
2) A Sovereign Nation that is not be part of the NPT in the first place and conduct the test. (ie. Pakistan)
3) Not be part of the international community including the NPT related peripherals. (ie. Special Area)

Can India conduct a test not in India. Even having monitoring and able to collect parameters in a advanced way. Many say the previous tests have been by PRC by such a proxy administration act in Pakistan and North Korea. Some say India has already conducted a Megaton device. Where would the candidates be:

Where is the place in the world where even the PRC intellectuals would think is a "grey" molecule in the body of things. Where in the place in the world can a nuclear test be conducted which is not covered by the international bodies. Where in the place in the world even the PRC would concur be a perfect candidate. Where in the place in the world even Japan and South Korea and even ASEAN would think when they think about North Korea.

Where in the place in the world India can get favorable conveyance and also preferably encouragement, support and sponsorship and others would be willing to allow such a test. Where in the world one can say that if North Korea does not give up Nuclear Weapons this area will test. Where in the world North Korea if keeps and tests again will be in the spotlight.

Where in the place in the world India can test that will make it safer for the region and the nearby nations would want a test and without breaking international agreement.

Which place would fit point number 3. Which place would fit such a favorable reason to test and accommodate the same reasoning why PRC assisted Pakistan and North Korea and not be illegal and the system able to accept it and India would not need to tell anyone it did the test.

Tissue Anyone:

 

[Khagesh]

That is not true. You already build up 100+ warheads and the number is still growing. I don't see why India has not enough material for more test.

You either didn’t read properly or you don’t understand things properly.
I never said we don’t have enough material.
I said we have 100 odd warheads.

You can consult a large body of literature by people from all nationalities, which claim that we have 100 or thereabout which could also be on the plus side. Unlike your belief pulled out of your Musharraf these numbers were reported based on some reasonable workings and some unreasonable ones. I don’t deny 100+ but then it is most likely not much beyond at present. Even in future its not going to radically change – probably 175 in total.

· About 20+ Agnis of high Beta RV design suggesting unitary warhead of megaton FBF range = 20+

· About 2 Jaguar+Su30MKI squadrons worth of smaller bombs @ 1 each for 1 aircraft most likely 25 KT FBF ones = 18*2 = 36+

· One Arihant - 4 large megaton range FBF or 200 KT of 12 Nos. = say about 12+

· Prithivi for Pakis – Say about 20 odd. Low count because Pakistan has only one Megacity and a small clutch of airbases to take care of. Not enough targets to hit. (I am a votary of the belief that high number of Prithivis are meant for conventional use)

· Some in storage/refurbishment = say around 2 in Megaton range and say 10 in 25 kt range.

Thus largest number probable being = 20+36+12+20+2+10 = 100 exactly


For Future possibility over next 10 years following could be the additional ones:

Arihant Class – 4*5 large megaton range FBF or equivalent KT of several smaller ones

40 modified Sukhoi worth of 25 kt mounted on Brahmos but for this the old count of 36 has to be forgone

Probably 50 for Nirbhays

Thus = 20+40-36+50=74

Wrong again. It maybe true for USA and USSR, but not in the case of UK and China. Based on the book of some Chinese scientists, their budget was always so little that they had to do their best to make sure each of tests can server as many experimental objects as they can. 46 is almost the minimum times they need to push their design to current level. Simply they don't have resource to do this kind of political show.

You can consult the flip-flop that your leadership did during 59-64 and guess well who supplied what and what was developed and why the absolute need to have more arsenal. You have antagonized pretty much everybody on the globe. There would be no military power more targeted than China. And there would be future nuclear powers in Far East (SoKo+Japan+Vietnam) all because they fear Chinese hegemony.

By the way, the French nuclear program had nothing to do with Germany, they just don't believe American's nuclear umbrella.

I will let the French say something about it. Haan bhai VIP Frenchie how would you like it if the Germans get their own nukes but you don’t have them.

No, each test helps scientists improve their understanding of nuclear reaction. There is no way you can sort out the whole area in just couple of tests.

Off course ‘each test helps’, you knucklehead. When did I say tests are not helpful.

Each test is basically pushed by the political leadership for a variety of reasons and then the scientists just try to test out as much as they possibly can after making sure the politicos have been delivered the goods they had asked for.

The problem is that the experiment envelope is always going to be determined by a few things like say –
1) Highest and Lowest yields possible for a design for as many designs as there are there in the arsenal
2) Different kind of fissile materials – Refined/Dirty - U235+U233+Pu239
3) Different kinds of base designs – FBF, TN, multipoint, two-point, flyer plate wagehra wagehra.

Thus there are only about 10 tests (with mix and match say 5 designs in total) that can reasonably be tested at any given point in the development cycle.

For example if say the Chinese were to stop in 1970/1980/1990s, at all points only the toughest 10 tests, presumably the latest ones that those points in time, tested on the edge of the design envelop would be relevant. All else is useless filler – if you can do the edgy ones correctly, only idiots would doubt your conservative designs. That is why the westerners keep raising doubts about Shakti tests because essentially the NPT was to stop India only and they think it would help their cause to seed FUD esp. if a Sonia/Rahul Gandhi type sarkar gets voted into power in Delhi.

In the case of BARC they have tested nearly all types except the megaton one. They may not actually need to do the Megaton ever. Its too big and too unwieldy for actual use unless the actual use envisaged is merely MAD type (USA) or unless you are willing to blow up half the countries resources (Soviets) sporting those kinds of weapons.

Comparing your knowledgeable Indian critics/commenters, I have read the book of even more knowledgeable American/Russian/Chinese nuclear scientists. From these books, I learned what is necessary to build up a simulation model on nuclear weapons.

Didn’t do much good to you now did it. You cannot even read posts hosted on forums but you claim you read the books seriously. I am sure you did.

Furthermore, I have always assume that Indian scientists did collected enough data in one single shot somehow (which scientists of P5 failed to do so) and create the model successfully. They still need one more test so they can compare the simulated result to actual test data to prove the accuracy of the model.

The only test we need is the megaboom. Which I believe is a waste of precious PBV space unless you have some really fine designs like the Big twos have or unless you want to emulate the Big twos (Britain, China, France).

Well, the scientists from the rest of world just think an explosion under 200/250kt is not enough to prove your design. But, of course, Indian scientists may smart out others.

Well then my advixe to the world should relax about Indian arsenal. Since that assessment would be based on what their scientists ‘think’. In which case we Indian should be allowed to do our business BARC without the unnecessary interference in our nuclear establishments.

For Indians my advise would be to make and test proper ICBMs and PGRVs. After all, we will only be mating these with harmless conventional strike options. No harm done .

As long as India still sticks to "No first use" policy, the target of your warheads will always be those big cities instead of military objects. So you will definitely need the big bombs to kill as much people as you can--You won't have numbers to kill enemy's military force after nuclear retaliation.

Big cities to be properly killed require a large number of smaller bombs. Big nukes will only prompt all out exchanges without doing much.

A typical city will have 3/4 railyards/stations, 3/4 bus inter-state terminals, 2 large water bodies, 5 large business areas, probably even a port and definitely 2 airports. No singular megaboom can do that. Only a larger number of warheads – whether 25 KT or 200 KT or 1 MT can do that. For added certainty you will also require either decoys or even more number of warheads. You can do the math.

 

[warrior monk]

You either didn’t read properly or you don’t understand things properly.
I never said we don’t have enough material.
I said we have 100 odd warheads.

You can consult a large body of literature by people from all nationalities, which claim that we have 100 or thereabout which could also be on the plus side. Unlike your belief pulled out of your Musharraf these numbers were reported based on some reasonable workings and some unreasonable ones. I don’t deny 100+ but then it is most likely not much beyond at present. Even in future its not going to radically change – probably 175 in total.

· About 20+ Agnis of high Beta RV design suggesting unitary warhead of megaton FBF range = 20+

· About 2 Jaguar+Su30MKI squadrons worth of smaller bombs @ 1 each for 1 aircraft most likely 25 KT FBF ones = 18*2 = 36+

· One Arihant - 4 large megaton range FBF or 200 KT of 12 Nos. = say about 12+

· Prithivi for Pakis – Say about 20 odd. Low count because Pakistan has only one Megacity and a small clutch of airbases to take care of. Not enough targets to hit. (I am a votary of the belief that high number of Prithivis are meant for conventional use)

· Some in storage/refurbishment = say around 2 in Megaton range and say 10 in 25 kt range.

Thus largest number probable being = 20+36+12+20+2+10 = 100 exactly


For Future possibility over next 10 years following could be the additional ones:

Arihant Class – 4*5 large megaton range FBF or equivalent KT of several smaller ones

40 modified Sukhoi worth of 25 kt mounted on Brahmos but for this the old count of 36 has to be forgone

Probably 50 for Nirbhays

Thus = 20+40-36+50=74




You can consult the flip-flop that your leadership did during 59-64 and guess well who supplied what and what was developed and why the absolute need to have more arsenal. You have antagonized pretty much everybody on the globe. There would be no military power more targeted than China. And there would be future nuclear powers in Far East (SoKo+Japan+Vietnam) all because they fear Chinese hegemony.





I will let the French say something about it. Haan bhai VIP Frenchie how would you like it if the Germans get their own nukes but you don’t have them.




Off course ‘each test helps’, you knucklehead. When did I say tests are not helpful.

Each test is basically pushed by the political leadership for a variety of reasons and then the scientists just try to test out as much as they possibly can after making sure the politicos have been delivered the goods they had asked for.

The problem is that the experiment envelope is always going to be determined by a few things like say –
1) Highest and Lowest yields possible for a design for as many designs as there are there in the arsenal
2) Different kind of fissile materials – Refined/Dirty - U235+U233+Pu239
3) Different kinds of base designs – FBF, TN, multipoint, two-point, flyer plate wagehra wagehra.

Thus there are only about 10 tests (with mix and match say 5 designs in total) that can reasonably be tested at any given point in the development cycle.

For example if say the Chinese were to stop in 1970/1980/1990s, at all points only the toughest 10 tests, presumably the latest ones that those points in time, tested on the edge of the design envelop would be relevant. All else is useless filler – if you can do the edgy ones correctly, only idiots would doubt your conservative designs. That is why the westerners keep raising doubts about Shakti tests because essentially the NPT was to stop India only and they think it would help their cause to seed FUD esp. if a Sonia/Rahul Gandhi type sarkar gets voted into power in Delhi.

In the case of BARC they have tested nearly all types except the megaton one. They may not actually need to do the Megaton ever. Its too big and too unwieldy for actual use unless the actual use envisaged is merely MAD type (USA) or unless you are willing to blow up half the countries resources (Soviets) sporting those kinds of weapons.





Didn’t do much good to you now did it. You cannot even read posts hosted on forums but you claim you read the books seriously. I am sure you did.





The only test we need is the megaboom. Which I believe is a waste of precious PBV space unless you have some really fine designs like the Big twos have or unless you want to emulate the Big twos (Britain, China, France).





Well then my advixe to the world should relax about Indian arsenal. Since that assessment would be based on what their scientists ‘think’. In which case we Indian should be allowed to do our business BARC without the unnecessary interference in our nuclear establishments.

For Indians my advise would be to make and test proper ICBMs and PGRVs. After all, we will only be mating these with harmless conventional strike options. No harm done .





Big cities to be properly killed require a large number of smaller bombs. Big nukes will only prompt all out exchanges without doing much.

A typical city will have 3/4 railyards/stations, 3/4 bus inter-state terminals, 2 large water bodies, 5 large business areas, probably even a port and definitely 2 airports. No singular megaboom can do that. Only a larger number of warheads – whether 25 KT or 200 KT or 1 MT can do that. For added certainty you will also require either decoys or even more number of warheads. You can do the math.

Brother it is no use arguing and no need to give explanations to foreigners as I tried to use as simple words as possible to explain but no use , some people think that only those who have confirmed 100% burnup in second stage only have staged devices .
Infact it is better the world doesn't recognize us so we can make all the Pu 239 , U-235 and U-233 fissile material we need without disturbance and international nuisance and all the " research reactors " we can build as we are harmless. The more harmless we look the better it is . Ok we have only 100 devices which may or may not blast now allow us our PUREX extraction plant LoL.

 

[Khagesh]

Brother it is no use arguing and no need to give explanations to foreigners as I tried to use as simple words as possible to explain but no use , some people think that only those who have confirmed 100% burnup in second ou stage only have staged devices .
Infact it is better the world doesn't recognize us so we can make all the Pu 239 , U-235 and U-233 fissile material we need without disturbance and international nuisance and all the " research reactors " we can build as we are harmless. The more harmless we look the better it is . Ok we have only 100 devices which may or may not blast now allow us our PUREX extraction plant LoL.

Lal Bahadur Shastri was the guy who gave the go ahead to Bhabha for the nuke research. Going against the wishes of the then Parliamentary Resolution.

And since we Indians lost both Bhabha and Lal Bahadur Shastri within a month of the other, both under suspicious circumstances, it serves our purpose well to not be upfront about anything. This is a program that is essentially designed to be Indrajaalic in its basic character. Who would like to lose his life for merely doing some mathematical calculations.

You get to see what you want to see and you don't get to see what you don't want to see. Only you never get the truth. Its too bloody risky for us to tell the truth .

Nonetheless somethings can be calculated to a reasonable judgement. So keep trying.

 

[power_monger]

Lal Bahadur Shastri was the guy who gave the go ahead to Bhabha for the nuke research. Going against the wishes of the then Parliamentary Resolution.

You are completly wrong here. Lal bahadur shastri was never for nuclear programme.


http://defenceforumindia.com/forum/...ogram-1944-1999-full-history-must-read.68475/

Nehru died on 27 May 1964 and was succeeded by Lal Bahadur Shastri who took office on 2 June. That summer and fall expectations of a Chinese nuclear test steadily increased. PM Shastri, a Gandhian, was strongly opposed to pursuing the Indian nuclear option, and Bhabha began making public statements in favor intended to increase public support and political pressure. On 4 October Bhabha repeated his estimate publicly that India could build a bomb within 18 months of the decision to do so. Interestingly, a U.S. National Intelligence Estimate issued on 16 October thought India capable of developing a weapon in one to three years.

India's prime nuclear facilities were having growing pains though. Cirus operated erratically after going critical, and India had problems supplying fuel rods of the required purity. Cirus did not reach full power until 16 October 1963. Likewise the Phoenix plant at Trombay operated unreliably with only a fraction of its rated capacity when it began receiving spent fuel from Cirus in mid-1964 (for example experiencing an explosion during its first several months of operation). It was officially inaugurated 22 January 1965, but produced very little plutonium for years, taking India until circa 1969 to acquire sufficient plutonium for a single device.

The much anticipated Chinese test finally came on 16 October 1964. Shastri's initial reaction was to reiterate his opposition to India following the same path. But on 24 October 1964 Bhabha made a now famous speech on Indian radio. Bhabha argued that "atomic weapons give a State possessing them in adequate numbers a deterrent power against attack from a much stronger State". He further claimed that such weapons were remarkably cheap citing cost estimates provided by the U.S. AEC for projected Plowshare (peaceful nuclear explosive) devices - $350,000 for a 10 kt device, and $600,000 for a 2 Mt device. From this he estimated that "a stockpile of some 50 atomic bombs would cost under $21 million and a stockpile of 50 two-megaton hydrogen bombs something of the order of $31.5 million " [Perkovich 1999; pg. 67]

It seems Bhabha could not have been unaware of how inappropriate such cost estimates were to the circumstances of India. The U.S. Plowshare cost figures were based on the the incremental cost of producing devices by a vast industrial complex costing tens of billions of dollars, which had already manufactured nuclear weapons numbering in the tens of thousands. And even so, it is very questionable that the U.S. Plowshare estimates - made by Plowhare advocates - constituted anything like full cost accounting for the usage of this vast infrastructure. And this also ignored the fact that the delivery systems for nuclear weapons typically cost several times as much as the weapons themselves. The real cost to India for any nuclear weapon program would be orders of magnitude greater than Bhabha's claims (China had spent over $4 billion in then-year dollars up to 1964 for its program).

Nonetheless his claims fueled debate about the desirability of India initiating a weapons program, and undermined support for Shastri and his "no weapon" policy within his own Congress party. With Bhabha continuing to campaign both publicly and behind the scenes, Shastri eventually found himself in an untenable position. The enormous public stature of Bhabha, and the tight control over nuclear information, left no effective scientific voice to act as a counterweight.

 

[Khagesh]

You are completly wrong here. Lal bahadur shastri was never for nuclear programme.

http://defenceforumindia.com/forum/...ogram-1944-1999-full-history-must-read.68475/

Nuke research spans a large area of very hard work. If you start thinking in terms of Nuclear Bomb+Lal Bahadur Shastri you will reach the conclusion you have. But if you are willing to search around and connect links you will reach a different conclusion. The history is a commie one. Just drop it and start searching for primary documents and claims of people involved. You are seriously underestimating Shastri - he died for a reason.

Here's something for you to read but before you start reading, remember well that Shastri ji was Bhabha ji's boss even though Bhabha ji was the one with brains and Shastri ji was merely following :

 

[ersakthivel]

What about the doubts expressed on thermo nuclear explosion?

 

[Khagesh]

What about the doubts expressed on thermo nuclear explosion?

My opinion in short – TN works though it is significantly more conservatively designed than what the leaders have notwithstanding the doubts expressed.


The nay-sayers claim the “measured yield vs. claimed designed yield” is discrepant.

They do not, wisely but tactically, claim that fusion did not take place. That primary worked perfectly is a given. That there was yield beyond the primary is clearly calculate-able, even from the alleged yields of the most trenchant of naysayers. This residual yield could only have come from the secondary. This residual yield is the dead give away that the thing worked.

Limitations while designing the tests and my personal opinions around them:

1) There can be an argument that BARC lied. But then even the most idiot would lie based on what was achieved to be able to explain it convincingly. BARC people know that what was observed by them, would be with somewhat greater degree of uncertainty, also observed by others. Though only in the seismic measurements. Within the observed overall yield they could easily have given different yield values to the TN and FBF such that the TN looks 5/10 times bigger than the FBF. You can always lie and claim that the 15 kt FBF was tested at reduced yield. Lying is always an option and people know that which is why even allies seek to observe the tests of their allies (US for France and UK, Chinese for Pakis and vis-versa). BARC did nothing of the sort and kept the yield distribution claim, between TN and FBF, too edgy. Outsiders can think anything about it. But the relevant question is what would the insider think about such a behavior.


2) Containment must be perfect because leakages would leave isotopes in the atmosphere. And Pakis would be more than happy to give space to Americans and Chinese and Brits to sample the air across the nearby border. Within the Indian borders too there is no real way to stop overflying aircrafts to sample the air for isotopes. Nobody hands out the design basis for their weapons. Since no aam-abdul is expected to understand the need for containment so the BARC et al simply lied about the absolute overarching need to protect Khetolai. The people could have been evacuated so there is no real danger to them because of tests. Evacuate and test the megaboom all you like. The reality is that the Shakti tests actually happened, either within or just outside, the village boundaries of one of the abandoned villages (perhaps Mangla village). Obviously abandoned because the residents were asked to. Also notice the Security Council members make all kinds of four lettered treaties but follow all of them only in breach thereof. But for some convenient reason, the PTBT is very well implemented by these people. Even countries like China and France who have not signed the PTBT follow it, unless they (like others) want to make it known what they are cooking.


3) Tests cannot be repeated fast enough because you cannot set right a wrong design within a few days. So the tests must be driven by what the politicos want and not by what the scientists want. The scientists can and they apparently did negotiate for extensive validation of the other ideas they had been cooking but which were not strictly relevant for the politicos ie. the two sub-kilotons (other than the dirty one) and the one devise that was taken out (totalling 3). From the scientists POV the tests were about science. From the Politicos POV (concerned about deterrence) only the TN was relevant and the FBF and Dirty sub-kiloton were relevant only as insurance. Beyond the already present 2 insurances it makes little sense to have Number 6 also as insurance. Some people have speculated that the Number 6 could have been the TN just to make sure things go right. My guess is it was a duplicate of the most edgy design - the 0.2 KT. From the scientists POV that one was the most relevant. Had the Number 6 been a TN duplicate, it would still have been a useless exercise to have it as insurance, had the Number 1 TN not worked. A TN design that works 1 out of 2 times, is not any better than, the TN design that fails 1 out of 1 time. Politicos cannot afford to mate both kinds of TN with the Agnis. In fact, if you want the Number 6 to be an insurance for the TN, then it makes far more sense to have a big FBF and lie about it all. On top that the biggest best shaft was already given to the TN. OTOH the edgy design 0.2 KT, which coincidentally, was the thing that the Chinese and French had when they claimed they gave up testing, would absolutely certainly require a duplicate. Because you cannot ever know if your edgy design failed, out of an inherent deficiency or because of an incidental deficiency. Sure as hell the BARC would like to count out the incidental deficiencies.


4) Now if the TN is the only political weapon and it already has 2 insurances w.r.t its political value (deterrence), then you would like to have a TN tests that is neither too edgy but not too outdated also. BARC could easily have re-designed a Mike but the politicos would not agree to it. A redesigned Mike would have given absolute certainty but for the politico its useless since it cannot be mounted on the Agni. The politicos would also not agree to, too radical a design also. One that would have substantial chances of failure denying them space, again making their Agnis nearly useless. BARC and R. Chidambram did claim that designs were 98 vintage. I take it to mean that the experiment was not really a true scientific experiment. An experiment to satisfy a scientist’s wishes must be about the future. This TN was not about the future. This TN was about the package that had to reliably go on the Agni which had been around for too long, in 98, without a relevant warhead.


5) For us the relevant question is what is 98 vintage in Indian context, with absolute certainty – my guess – conservative TN – Primary derived from the FBF and/or Dirty sub-kilotons and cylindrical secondary that had spark plug, longer channels, more distance between case and secondary, longer distance between primary and collimaters, thicker tamper/pusher and smaller Lithium layer. The kind that would force the follow on developments to focus around MARVs instead of MIRVs.


Hope I helped. And sorry about grammar.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

We have enough for onlly 100 warheads which is lesser than even Pakistan, let alone China.

Where did you get this number? From all data I have seen india may have the third largest fissile material stockpile? That will also increase in the future. For a non security council nation it probably has the highest military fissile material reserves.
When all the fast breeder reactors are complete a high ranking official conservatively said it will produce enough fissile material for upto 700 bombs annually. May be intentional to keep warhead size capped if the intentions are to mirv strategic missiles?