Indian Economy: News and Discussion

[Haldiram]

Live: Sensex Rises 300 Points; Garden Reach Makes Weak Debut

Market Update: Sensex Rises Over 300 Points, Nifty Reclaims 10,400

Maine toh kal hi bola tha...

Even with the steep fall, most companies are still overpriced on the market. There's scope for a 400+ point dead cat bounce in the short run before the market stagnates back to the current low.

 

[aarav]

India may receive 4 bn barrels of extra crude oil from Saudi Arabia in Nov

Reuters | New Delhi | Singapore | Last Updated at October 10 2018 17:12 IST

Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, will supply Indian buyers with an additional 4 million barrels of crude oil in November, several sources familiar with the matter said on Wednesday.

The extra cargoes indicate a willingness by Saudi Arabia to increase crude supply to make up the shortfall once sanctions by the United States on oil exports from Iran, the third-largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), start up on Nov. 4.

India is Iran's top oil client after China, though several refiners have indicated they will stop taking Iranian barrels because of the sanctions.

Reliance Industries Ltd, Hindustan Petroleum Corp, Bharat Petroleum Corp and Mangalore Refinery Petrochemicals Ltd are seeking an additional 1 million barrels each in November from Saudi Arabia, the sources said.

Three of the companies did not immediately reply to an email from Reuters seeking comment. MRPL replied "no comments" when contacted by email.

State-owned oil producer Saudi Aramco was not immediately available for comment.

Given their dependence on Iranian oil supplies, the Indian refiners are concerned about the loss of Iranian crude once the sanctions start and are seeking exemptions. Refiners in the country have placed orders to buy 9 million barrels from Iran in November.

One of the reasons for the additional demand for Saudi oil is that the crude arbitrage from the United States is shut so the Indian buyers have to turn to Middle Eastern barrels, said one of the sources.

India, the world's third biggest oil importer, is grappling with a combination of rising oil prices and falling local currency, which makes imports of dollar-denominated oil more expensive. Retail prices for gasoline and diesel fuel in India are at record highs and the government has cut its excise tax on fuel to ease some of the pain for consumers.

Indian Oil Minister Dharmendra Pradhan said on Monday that he spoke with Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih last week and reminded him that OPEC and other major oil producers had promised to raise their output at a meeting in June.

India imports an average of 25 million barrels per month from Saudi Arabia.

Reuters last week reported that Russia and Saudi Arabia, the world's two biggest oil producers, struck a private deal in September to raise output to cool rising prices and had informed the United States about the decision.

 

[indus]

When the discussion on fertility rates and religion is over, somebody do describe me the state of Indian economy. Rupee falling, high oil prices seem to blanket any other news related to economy. What is the way out and where are we heading. Any ideas...

 

[Indx TechStyle]

When the discussion on fertility rates and religion is over, somebody do describe me the state of Indian economy. Rupee falling, high oil prices seem to blanket any other news related to economy. What is the way out and where are we heading. Any ideas...

Would be discussing after meeting, I won't continue the fertility rate convo anymore.
Sorry for derailing thread.

Edit :Quoted the above post for PM.
One can only give other excuses to defend conservativeness but can't give any reason other than unreasonable pride.

 

[nongaddarliberal]

When the discussion on fertility rates and religion is over, somebody do describe me the state of Indian economy. Rupee falling, high oil prices seem to blanket any other news related to economy. What is the way out and where are we heading. Any ideas...

Trade surplus is the only way out, but the government along with many members in this forum seem to think otherwise. Of course trade surplus policy should have been formulated 20 years ago and executed. There is no quick way to gain a trade surplus without hurting your own consumers further. So India right now can only pray to the oil gods to reduce oil prices.

 

[Advaidhya Tiwari]

When the discussion on fertility rates and religion is over, somebody do describe me the state of Indian economy. Rupee falling, high oil prices seem to blanket any other news related to economy. What is the way out and where are we heading. Any ideas...

India has arrangement to get enough FDI to cover the extra oil prices. As oil prices inrease, FDI also increases

 

[sorcerer]

India's debt lower than best emerging market economies: IMF

India's debt is lower than the best or emerging market economies in the world, a top IMF official has said as he cautioned that the global debt has reached a new record high of USD 182 trillion in 2017.

Vitor Gasper, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Director of Fiscal Affairs Department, said India's debt was substantially less than the global debt as percentage of world Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

In India, private debt in 2017 was 54.5 per cent of the GDP and the general government debt was 70.4 per cent of the GDP, a total debt of about 125 of the GDP, according to the latest IMF figures. In comparison, debt of China was 247 per cent of the GDP.

"So, it (India's debt) is substantially less than the global debt as percentage of world GDP," Gasper said.

India's debt is below the average of advanced economies and below the average of emerging market economies, he said.

"There is a positive relation between the debt to GDP ratio and the level of GDP per capita. If you compare around the world with the best economies or emerging market economies, the level of debt in India is lower," the top IMF official said.

The IMF is very much stressing that global debt at USD 182 trillion in 2017 is at a new record high, he said.

Debt in advanced economies, since the global financial crisis, has increased quite substantially while the private sector has been very gradually leveraging, he added.

"If you look at emerging market economies, that includes India, you see that private debt in the last 10 years has increased quite substantially, although in the last two years, since the end of 2015, 2016 and 2017, there is a slowdown in the process of leveraging, but debt is very high and public debt is a very high as well," Gasper said.

In the last few years in India private debt has declined from almost 60 per cent to 54.5.

"So, it's very stable. So, what you do see is that emerging market economies, which is where India is, there's a very fast buildup in private debt with a slowdown in the last two years, But India is basically steady. So, India is not an emerging market economy where leveraging is progressing fast," Gasper said.

According to Gasper, in emerging market economies private debt has risen much faster than public debt.

"Take China, for example. Total debt is 247 per cent of the GDP. But the dividing line between what is public and private debt in China is blurry. This blurriness reflects the very large number of public units and corporations, the complex layers of government, and widespread subnational off-budget borrowing," he said.

"As a result, estimates of 2017 public debt vary considerably: the official government debt figure is 37 per cent of GDP, while the data reported in the latest World Economic Outlook show it at 47 per cent of GDP, and the 'augmented' debt measure, which includes more off budget borrowing by local governments, stands at 68 per cent of GDP," he said.

As China works to compile a full general government balance sheet, this picture will come into clearer focus, he added.

Gasper said China had substantial government assets, reflecting years of high infrastructure investment.

These assets are larger than its liabilities, putting net worth — the difference between assets and liabilities — well above 100 per cent of the GDP, the highest among emerging economies, he said.

"This is a significant buffer when compared to total debts of public corporations, particularly considering that public corporations also have assets. So, while debt-related risks in China are large, there are also buffers. Moreover, the government is taking steps to contain risks by reining in off-budget borrowing and strengthening oversight, resulting in a slowdown in the buildup of debt," he said.
Read more at:
//economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/66147583.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

 

[Jackd]

Trade surplus is the only way out, but the government along with many members in this forum seem to think otherwise. Of course trade surplus policy should have been formulated 20 years ago and executed. There is no quick way to gain a trade surplus without hurting your own consumers further. So India right now can only pray to the oil gods to reduce oil prices.

You can only have trade surplus if you have sufficient exports, Indian scenario. We don't have that. As one member pointed it out, we have a consumer driven economy and our exports are nothing to write home about. Investing in capital goods and infrastructure will help boost our manufacturing sector, which is currently nascent. It will take time but the wait will be well worth it.
Also, we can invest in green energy and technology to reduce our dependency on oil. Eg: Govt. mandating mixing of ethanol with fuel will reduce the oil bill by some amount, boosting production of oilseeds like groundnuts, encouraging usage of electric vehicles, sovereign gold bonds scheme to reduce dependency on importing physical gold, using biofuels in aviation etc can help reduce the import bill.

 

[Aaj ka hero]

Oi sirji log, being new member please this is BHARAT ECONOMY THREAD not HINDUISM AND ITS PROBLEM THREAD,
DON'T GO AND LAUNCH FROM DIFFERENT and UNNECESSARY LAUNCH PAD.
Stick to the economy only please
.....
xxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Mod: Post edited. Stick to one language and decent language please

 

[Defenceanalyst91]

Sensex and rupee continue their downfall

 

[Advaidhya Tiwari]

It's funny that people are arguing varna is diff. from caste. They are the same. If there was no rigidity in varna, then surely karna would've been accepted as a kshatriya. He wasn't. Even after he became great at fighting, they still called him a shudra. There are many more instances like that. Our kings were all mostly ksahtriya, no vaishya or shudra became king (except rarely). Doesn't this prove that varna system was also rigid, just like caste?

Point is, instead of defending the indefensible, let us learn to accept that our society had a lot of rigidity in the past, that the system to organise labour created huge disparity and inequality. Now we are correcting all that, and that's a good thing. This is what dharma is, changing according to times, not clinging to biased, rigid social structures.

Karna was called Suta-Putra, not shudra. That was because he was from fisherman family. Varna is not the only thing in life that matters. Kula and Vamsha matter too. Read Arthashastra to understand that there were 3 division - Kula, Vamsha and Varna.

Kula is household and that matters the most. If someone marries a fisherman's son with great talent, still she would have to live with the father-in-law who is a fisherman. One can't just look at talent alone as the parent and the social network a person has developed since childhood can't be changed.

Karna, after becoming a kshatriya under Duryodhana, Karna's son would now be considered as Kshatriya unless he gets some other job. If Karna's son becomes a farmer, then Karna's grandson will be considered as Shudra till he settles in any other job. When Karna was going to swayamvara, he was still a boy and not yet settled as Kshatriya. But the same Karna was considered Kshatriya due to his willpower by Parashurama even before.

All kings were kshatriya. Even Ravana was a Brahmana by birth but considered a rakshasa and Kshatriya. Once a person becomes king, he becomes kshatriya.

No one is defending the indefensible. You are too narrow minded to not understand the nuances of life. Life does not run on mere talent alone but also has other factors. So, all of them have to be considered holistically. Being fanatic is not an answer

 

[Kshatriya87]

Rs 6 Lakh Crore: That’s What India lost to Natural Disasters in 20 Years

 

[Kshatriya87]

Natural disasters cost India $80 billion in 20 years: UN report

HIGHLIGHTS

• A study released by the UN office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) said India suffered economic losses of $80 billion during the 20-year period of 1998 to 2017
• India has been ranked among world's top five countries in absolute economic losses
• Globally, disaster losses during this period have been estimated at $3 trillion

 

[Indx TechStyle]

Thread won't be polluted anymore. Move here.
https://defenceforumindia.com/forum...agnosticism-thread.29166/page-60#post-1455935

 

[sorcerer]

RBI sticks to data storage deadline, may take action against cos that don't comply by October 15

BENGALURU: The Reserve Bank of India has informed multinational payments companies that they must adhere to its mandate requiring them to store data pertaining to Indian users within the country by October 15, according to three senior bankers aware of the developments.

The central bank could also initiate action against those which do not comply with the instructions that were announced in April, said the people cited above.

“As per the RBI directive, all payments companies will have to submit a compliance report on localisation of payments data on October 15 and they (RBI) will decide what type of action needs to be taken based on these reports,” said a senior banker. “The chances for an extension are highly unlikely.”

Even if some firms are not able to comply with the directives fully within the given timeline, consumer interest will be protected. “Consumers’ credit and debit cards will continue to function unhindered,” a senior banker told ET.

Referring to the interaction between industry representatives and the RBI on Wednesday, a senior payments industry executive said the “RBI did not buy the argument about technological challenges. It said that in the worst-case scenario, companies can hire cloud services in the country and host their data locally. Technology is available.”

80% OF COS HAVE COMPLIED: INDUSTRY
The central bank was of the view that the six-month timeline was sufficient for companies to be fully compliant, according to the executive. RBI did not respond to email queries. One of the bankers quoted above said the nature of the punitive action will depend on the extent to which these companies have adhered to guidelines.

Industry sources estimate that 80% of the payments companies have already complied, which makes it imperative for the rest to follow suit. In addition to Indiabased PhonePe and Paytm, the payments arms of global giants like WhatsApp, Amazon and Alibaba have also adhered to RBI’s diktat, bankers said. Payments networks Visa and Mastercard have started work on hosting data locally, they added.

On April 6, the RBI had mandated that all digital payments data will have to be stored only within India by October 15. Paytm and PhonePe welcomed the move while multinational firms including Visa, Mastercard and American Express have appealed against it. Representatives of these companies met several top government officials seeking a relaxation of the norms on data storage and also an extension of the compliance deadline, citing technological challenges.

ET reported on October 9 that a top government agency suggested that the country’s central bank should mandate multinational payments companies to allow an audit of their global databases by Indian regulators and store a copy of data on local transactions within the country. Earlier in July the finance ministry had recommended the central bank issue a clarificatory circular on data storage norms. However the RBI had not issued any FAQ (frequently asked questions) with regard to the hot-button issue.

Bankers are of the view that the regulator was not in favour of supporting data mirroring as well. With digital payments growing in leaps and bounds, the need for storing the data being generated within the country has assumed paramount importance. Bankers said such a move would also help create new jobs as it will require many analysts and data specialists to process the stored data.


https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...comply-by-october-15/articleshow/66172644.cms

 

[Indx TechStyle]

India's September retail inflation rises marginally to 3.77%
India's retail inflation rose marginally in September, nudged up by food and fuel prices, but short of the central bank's 4 percent medium-term target, strengthening views it could tighten monetary policy in December following unchanged rates last week.

The monetary policy committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India left the repo rate at 6.50 percent while reiterating its target of keeping consumer inflation at 4.00 percent in the medium term on a "durable basis"."

In September, consumer prices rose 3.77 percent from a year earlier, compared with a 3.69 percent increase in August, the Statistics Ministry said on Friday.

For September, the median forecast of economists polled by Reuters was 4.00 percent, with estimates ranging from 3.60 percent to 4.70 percent

CPI inflation has started inching up on the back of rising prices of food and other goods and services, said Rupa Rege Nitsure, chief economist at L&T Finance Holdings.

"Given the massive depreciation of the rupee and elevated crude oil prices, RBI will have to resort to policy rate signals sooner than later."

Slower inflation in food prices, which make up nearly half of India's consumer price index (CPI), has so far cancelled out rises in imported goods following the weakening rupee.

Food inflation rose to 0.51 percent from a year earlier, against 0.29 percent in August.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel sectors, was seen at 5.8 percent, down from around 6 percent in August, according to analysts.

The RBI has projected inflation of 4.8 percent by June 2019, slightly lower than its August forecast of 5.0 percent.
It has raised its policy rate 50 basis points since June, and is widely expected to raise rates by at least 25 basis points more this year.

The next policy review is due on Dec. 5.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, eyeing a second term in general elections early next year, worries that rising retail petrol and diesel prices and a weakening currency could undercut his efforts to boost economic growth.

Nationwide protests prompted the government last week to cut taxes on petrol and diesel prices, which could hit federal spending on infrastructure.
Retail petrol prices have gone up 17.7 percent in the capital, New Delhi, and diesel prices are up 24.99 percent this year, denting demand for consumer durables and passenger vehicle sales.

Analysts said recent rates hikes and a weakening rupee, which has lost about 13 percent this year against the dollar, could hurt growth prospects in the second half of the fiscal year ending in March 2019.

The International Monetary Fund forecasts India's economy could grow 7.3 percent in the fiscal year ending in March 2019, versus 6.7 percent in the last.

Copyright: ET

 

[Haldiram]

Really good discussion (makes predictions relevant to the next 2 years)

 

[Indx TechStyle]

US says it could remove India from currency monitoring list

Representative image.​

WASHINGTON: India moved a step closer to getting off the US Treasury’s watchlist on currency after the central bank’s reserves accumulation showed a reversal of trend this year and the Rupee depreciated against the Greenback.

The half-yearly report to the Congress which also saw China escape the tag of currency manipulator, showed that India’s current account deficit worsened and foreign exchange reserves shrank due to flight of capital. That left only one criteria to be considered as a currency manipulator – India’s bilateral trade position with the US.

``India’s circumstances have shifted markedly, as the central bank’s net sales of foreign exchange over the first six months of 2018,’’ said the Macroeconomic and Foreign Exchange Policies of Major Trading Partner of the US posted on the Treasury Department’s website. ``This represented a notable change from 2017, when purchases over the first three quarters of the year pushed net purchases of foreign exchange above 2 percent of GDP.’’

Last year the Trump administration surprised economists when it put India, a country running current account deficit, on the currency watchlist along with China and Germany which run huge current account surpluses. That was due to the Reserve Bank of India’s USD purchases to prevent a strong appreciation of the currency. This year the tide has turned. The Rupee is down about 14 percent this year making it the worst performing currency.

``Recent sales have come amidst a turnaround in foreign portfolio flows, as foreign investors pulled portfolio capital out of India (and many other emerging markets) over the first half of the year,’’ the report said.

The Treasury’s observations are primarily based on three criteria, namely, a significant trade surplus with the US (more than $20bn), current account surplus at and above 3% of GDP and net purchases of foreign currency at and above 2% of GDP.

While India escapes the net on two criteria – it is still under the watch list as it runs a trade surplus with the United States even though the economy in general is in deficit.

``India has a significant bilateral goods trade surplus with the United States, totalling $23 billion over the four quarters through June 2018, but India’s current account is in deficit at 1.9 percent of GDP. As a result, India now only meets one of the three criteria from the 2015 Act. If this remains the case at the time of its next Report, Treasury would remove India from the Monitoring List.’’

 

[republic_roi97]

US says it could remove India from currency monitoring list

Representative image.​

Man, is it good or bad ?? I can't understand.........

 

[Indx TechStyle]

Man, is it good or bad ?? I can't understand.........

Good but a relaxation coz we suffered something really bad.