Do call me Adu, and the feeling is likewise, I feel that you are a rationalist rather than a Russian Fanboy! It has become nauseating to meet them.
Lets talk business.
I used to tell my friends, the power in a relationship lies with the person who cares the least.
In every relationship there is a matter of leverage. That defines how we can work it.
In the Indo-US relationship, India has many leverage's, we have economy, lot of Indo-Americans, third party countries like Israel , our reputation, our enmity towards China, our common goals like Terrorism, All of these separately with no central plan to make sure that Indo-US relationship goes from strength to strength. The fact of the matter is, US needs India much more than we need them. We hold the power.
we also have divergence in Pakistan, current world order structure etc etc. But those are issues we can tide over in time, when it is easier for US also. Just like, they have their Pakistan, We have our Iran. I am not saying Iran= Pakistan, but I hope you get my point.
When it comes to India-Russia relationship, We have NO such leverage. India is not the one who holds the power in that relationship, which is why we are treated badly by them! So, how can we fix it when we dont have any leverage!
India cannot be brushed away or ignored, the best thing for India to do to save the Indo-Russian relationship in India's favor is to lean into the US camp , this will make Russian nervous, and they will come behind us. We need to strike the balance, and clutch the power. We also need to raise tensions in the Chinese - Russian borders, increase other incentives while not being obvious about it etc etc.
Since we are on a thread specific to a military transaction, I must state points on two fronts – the strategic implications as well as the military wisdom of incorporating American hardware.
From a military hardware perspectivce:
- We are creating a monster with the variety that exists in our defence procurements. The number of weapons systems that are incompatible on different platforms is already a pain that we are dealing with – Russian, French, British and Israeli
- Our diversification in procurement is a double edged sword. We may or may not get access to technologies but even if we do it is at the cost of impeding our own development. We will end up doing what the Chinese do – only legally.
- The AESA development timeline is far shorter than the proposed procurement timelines. We would have also significantly enhanced the Astra BVRAAM by then – it will possibly be THE missile in 10 years. The LCA already uses more composites than any other modern plane. Do not underestimate the progress we have made in material and nano-science and hence stealth thereof. In the AMCA the DRDO and HAL finally have the opportunity to break the shackles and come up with a plane that counts among the best.
- Assuming the F 35 is even 25% better, the caveats it comes with are not worth it. In the longer run the AMCA will be far more beneficial to us than any foreign procurement. I really hope the FGFA will be the last big military hardware India will ever need to buy.
I just do not see military sense in buying the F 35 – too many strings attached and will impede our own development programs
From a geo-strategic perspective
- America does not have an EQUAL ally. They never have, they never will. I will not even try to explain this but you can choose to point out a single ally of America that is treated as an equal. (when the French said they did not want to fight in Iraq, the twats here renamed French Fries as Freedom Fries!!!).
As a fiercely nationalistic and independent Indian, I feel very strongly about anything to do with being sheltered by the US umbrella. Now you may say that's not how it is going to be, but not one American will think otherwise. Not one American will think of India being an EQUAL partner. Over time, this alliance is going to become one of such severe dependence that we will eventually have to start towing the US line on International Affairs. Pointer – Iran sanctions.
Now you may ask how does buying 200 jets result in this situation? The simple answer is we can't have a leg in each boat. Over time every action taken by the GOI that furthers the Indo-US song, drives another nail into the coffin of the Indo-Russian one.
Geo-politics is always evolving. Our Non-Alignment stance was hardly that. We still needed the Russians to help us. Why point fingers at anyone regarding the Russian – Chinese dilly dallying?
Vajpayee signed a strategic pact with Putin in 2000. What has the UPA done to further our partnership with Russia? The FGFA was conceptualized a decade ago and we were in talks then, no points to the UPA there either.
The Russian Chinese alliance is based on a simple fact that Russia has raw materials and China needs them. The Russians are a technology supplier because they get paid for it. There is nothing more to the Russian Chinese alliance than an economic one.
So, yes, buying the F 35 from the US will do irreparable damage to Indo-Russian ties. My personal opinion is we cannot afford that.
Thank you for reading through my long response.
