India will wipe off Pak, but at a heavy price: Report

[Martian]

No matter how you look at it, Pakistan can inflict serious damage on India in the event of a nuclear exchange. Shouldn't it be top priority for India to erect a multi-layer defense shield against the potential threat?

 

[Yusuf]

ABM is there for starters. AWACS to detect cruise missiles as well will be in full force in a few years.
But seriously, nuclear weapons are not a weapon of war. It was used 65 years ago and will never be used again. Its more of a bargaining tool and a deterrence.

 

[Energon]

The bombs your people landed on Japan have not kept killing people. The effects are minimal in such low yields. Ground Zero of Hiroshima and Nagasaki are vibrant communities today. The effects of waterborne viral disease has little to do with a nuklear explosion. There are not going to be new pathogenic microrganisms introduced into the water unless sewage facilties are off line. Indian river water is already heavily contaminated.

Other than the blast effect being much lower than what modern weapons would unleash today, the biggest reason for decreased long term morbidity and mortality was the unparalleled sophistication of the Japanese disaster recovery and public health systems that were launched after the Japanese surrender (funded by the US). These systems are analyzed and taught to public policy and MPH graduate students to date. India unfortunately has no such mechanism in place, and the record of its current public health infrastructure leaves much to be desired. In short, without a fantastic organizational structure (not to mention culture) and highly competent focal authorities (public health, disaster management/recovery etc.) the death toll will spiral out of control. Given India's status in these matters the numbers are fairly accurate IMO.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

No matter how you look at it, Pakistan can inflict serious damage on India in the event of a nuclear exchange. Shouldn't it be top priority for India to erect a multi-layer defense shield against the potential threat?

BMD will be a 3 layered defense almost 2 of the 3 layers are completed.

 

[Energon]

No matter how you look at it, Pakistan can inflict serious damage on India in the event of a nuclear exchange. Shouldn't it be top priority for India to erect a multi-layer defense shield against the potential threat?

A unilateral plan based on untested technology is not the best way to go about this. There has to be a comprehensive approach, which contrary to standard Indian belief isn't "optional." Sometimes you have orchestrate multiple objectives at a time knowing that one will not work without the other.

If numerous calamities and terrorist attacks have shown anything is that the greatest source of confusion, morbidity and mortality is the lack of infrastructure, not just in the physical sense but also in terms of a proficient emergency service and disaster recovery system. Less than a year ago, South Bombay, the defacto financial, cultural and economic capital of India was left burning for days on end because there was no set protocol to address large scale emergencies, and by large scale I mean what 10 well trained Pakistani terrorists could unleash in a matter of hours.

No amount of ballistic missile shields based on endless computer simulations are going to help prevent a grand scale catastrophe if basic social services can't be dispensed by proficient governmental authorities. There is an urgent need for not only multiple layers of ABMs, but also things like fire departments, police units, EMS, etc etc who operate with the assistance of state of the art technology designed around their operational fields.

 

[Vladimir79]

Other than the blast effect being much lower than what modern weapons would unleash today, the biggest reason for decreased long term morbidity and mortality was the unparalleled sophistication of the Japanese disaster recovery and public health systems that were launched after the Japanese surrender (funded by the US). These systems are analyzed and taught to public policy and MPH graduate students to date. India unfortunately has no such mechanism in place, and the record of its current public health infrastructure leaves much to be desired. In short, without a fantastic organizational structure (not to mention culture) and highly competent focal authorities (public health, disaster management/recovery etc.) the death toll will spiral out of control. Given India's status in these matters the numbers are fairly accurate IMO.

The mostly likely use of nukes would be to take out strategic Indian military targets which will hardly cause so many casualties. Even if they target the administrative centres they are cut off from 70% of the population. It is not numerically possible for such catastrophe to occur. They have survived for centuries without the bureaucracy of Indian and British administration. Knocking out a few cities is not going to turn the country into a graveyard.

 

[Martian]

This comment doesn't exactly fit in this thread, but you might find it amusing. A Neocon (i.e. right-wing conservative) stated that he hoped for a nuclear war between Pakistan and India. As I kept reading, the Neocon explained that he hoped for a massive cloud of radiation to drift into China and rain radiation onto Chinese soil. Thought you guys might find it interesting that there is at least one Neocon in the world hoping for a South Asian nuclear war.

 

[qsaark]

Well I am not surprised at all. I have had several conversations with some of the NeoCons (who are mostly evangelical Christians) in my University. They actually are the Taliban or the RSS equivalent folk found in the United States. These folks propose to go to any length if it is deemed necessary to fulfill what they think God wants them to do for him. Really scary stuff, and more scary is that they are also found in some very important posts in the United States government.

 

[Energon]

The mostly likely use of nukes would be to take out strategic Indian military targets which will hardly cause so many casualties. Even if they target the administrative centres they are cut off from 70% of the population. It is not numerically possible for such catastrophe to occur. They have survived for centuries without the bureaucracy of Indian and British administration. Knocking out a few cities is not going to turn the country into a graveyard.

Adversarial nations (and "non state actors") seemed to have figured out that India can be crippled far more efficiently by hitting its overcrowded population centers primarily due to the reasons I have listed in my earlier posts. Sure there will be attacks on the border regions with heavy military presence; but a lot of the upper echelons of military centers are spread out, dug in deep and equipped well enough to withstand nuclear fall out. Attacking megalopoli however would result in an epic disaster which would render India useless. All the simulations that I'm aware of show Indian cities being the primary targets of a nuclear attack.

 

[Vladimir79]

So show me these simulations you are aware of.

 

[Yusuf]

Yes all the Pakistani missiles will target indian cities. They will not target any military target with those. But we have the ABM coming up for that. Now that doesn't guarantee complete protection, but some at least.

Next, the yield of Pakistani nukes and the accuracy of the missiles will make sure a large section of the cities will survive. Also remember that they will have to let go of all the nukes and missile at one go. And the preparations of that will be detected. Remember they were picked up during Kargil war and promptly pressured by the Americans.

If they don't let gi all their nukes, indias military might will be put to take out anybremaining capacity. Also since pakstan struck first, nuke retaliation from India will certainly follow.

 

[Martian]

This isn't exactly on topic. I was curious as to whether India has any deep underground cities or military bases. I couldn't find anything on Google. The probability of a nuclear war with Pakistan is low, but not close to zero. A reasonable question is whether the government is building underground shelters to protect the lives of exposed Indian civilians.

 

[Rage]

This isn't exactly on topic. I was curious as to whether India has any deep underground cities or military bases. I couldn't find anything on Google. The probability of a nuclear war with Pakistan is low, but not close to zero. A reasonable question is whether the government is building underground shelters to protect the lives of exposed Indian civilians.

Yes, it does. In response to China's construction of the underground naval base at Sanya by tunneling into the mountainous shoreline of the southern Hainan island, India is building a similar large underground base at Rambilli in the south-central state of Andra Pradesh. Like China's Sanya base, Rambilli will allow submarines to enter and leave the facility while submerged and therefore away from the prying eyes of spy satellites, and also afford it a degree of nuclear immunity. The base is due to be completed by 2011 and will serve as the underground depot for the country's entire fleet of submarines, currently 16, but due to grow significantly in coming years with the construction of a class of domestically designed nuclear powered boats euphemistically called Advanced Tactical Vessels.


Other military and civilian underground nuclear shelters also exist- both from those constructed in the event of air raids during the Wars with Pakisthan, and others constructed more recently, particularly in the vicinity of the national capital and on the outskirts of other megapolises, but are beyond the purview of the publique sphere.

 

[Energon]

So show me these simulations you are aware of.

The one conducted by Richard Hoolbroke's group in 2002 sponsored by the Woodrow Wilson School.

The second was conducted by the Carnagie Endowment for International Peace. I have access to unclassified briefs of these reports through an organization of which I'm a member. I will not cut/past them here.

If you have a full membership with any of the major US policy groups you can access these documents. If not, I suggest you read Clarke and Scott- Levy's Deception: Pakistan, the United States and the Global Nuclear Weapons Conspiracy. It does a pretty good job of referring to multiple studies on the matter.

 

[Vladimir79]

You mean to tell me there is nothing on the net? Wow...

 

[Energon]

You mean to tell me there is nothing on the net? Wow...

I think it'll be really hard to get credible open source documents on this. Also mind you the declassified controlled literature isn't the same as the classified one. Books and composite reference materials are your best bet.

Either way the point is that all of these simulations always refer to atmospheric detonations over densely populated urban areas (between 15 and 29 in all of India and Pakistan) and do not take into account the long term casualties not only from the radiation but also from the breakdown of the social structure and the anarchy that is bound to follow. I imagine this would be very, very difficult to project. What is known however is that there are absolutely no mechanisms in place to conduct an effective evacuation of any major city in India.

Also, as I said, I think its dawning upon everyone that the size and scope of the Pakistani munitions themselves may have been underestimated in the past (especially the NRDC study).

 

[mehwish92]

Just the thought of a nuclear war in South Asia gives me the chills..

 

[ajtr]

buddy dont worry about chill have blanket and sleep peacefully. whether india's TN was fizzle or not .whether india has nukes or not ine thing is sure that indian leadership dont have balls to use nukes.today india dont need nukes and weapons wat it needs is a leadership of resolve that of sardar patel and indira gandhi.

india's ambassador to china miss.nirupama rao said correctly --india has power but its leadership dont know how to assert power.

 

[proud_hindustani]

both countries would have great losses and there wouldn't be any claims "We are Winner" ..nuclear toys are extremely dangerous and ruthless tyrants.

 

[proud_hindustani]

Nuclear toys are meant to keep a country protected from another nuclear country's invasion. Keeping nuclear bombs reduce the chance of waging a war.

There can be a big war between two nuclear countries but they won't go to press switch to launch nuclear missile as they know the consequences of nuclear effects.