India will wipe off Pak, but at a heavy price: Report

[Vladimir79]

Not really. India has far too many overburdened population clusters without infrastructural amenities. It's not like children (if they go to school that is) are taught about making a bee line for the nearest fall out shelter in case of mass radiation following a detonation as we were in the United States.

Not really, Pak only has only kilotonne devices which do not kick up mass fallout. Their nuklear arsenal is quite limited. 50 million was being generious based on the factors you listed.

If Pakistan were to launch nuclear weapons the detonations will most probably be atmospheric, not terrestrial in which case mass radiation would be the primary factor. Again, given the non existent infrastructure or organizational education, any mass calamity in India would result in an inordinate amount of deaths (as it always does even with natural calamities).

The only reason to detonate a nuke in the atmosphere is to induce an EMP wave or trying to intercept a nuke with another nuke. The casualties would be minimal.

Also, given that there is no modern concept of disaster recovery as yet, the burden of the long term morbidity and mortality will be far too great for any semblance of a civilization to remain.

With less than 100 warheads less than 100 kilotonnes, it will not be that pronounced.

Pakistan however will most probably be wiped out, third party projections (at least a couple conducted during Clinton's presidency) show the same thing.

The largest warheads India tested were 200kt. Pakistan will lose its major cities but the rural areas will remain.

 

[Yusuf]

Vlad indias largest tested device is 45kt. But yes scalable to 200.

 

[tiger usa]

Interesting topic, one update is that the official population of Pakistan as of March 2008 is 173+ million and unofficial as of Sep. 2009 is 180+ million. The 120 million is not correct.

 

[Yusuf]

Good you will still have 60 million remaining.

 

[natarajan]

then indian unofficial population will be more something like 1.3 billion:2guns: so still 80crore will survive

 

[Vladimir79]

Vlad indias largest tested device is 45kt. But yes scalable to 200.

Just looked it up, what happened with that test? Advertised as 45kt but people saying it was only 25kt.

 

[qsaark]

Just looked it up, what happened with that test? Advertised as 45kt but people saying it was only 25kt.

Who are the ‘people’? The American and the Western media. Do you think they will digest the success of the inferior dark skinned South Asians?

It is really funny that those who’s sole source of information is seismic data are given more credibility over those who have direct access to the test data through the telemetry devices planted along the test shafts.

 

[Yusuf]

Just looked it up, what happened with that test? Advertised as 45kt but people saying it was only 25kt.

Vlad we have a thread on it here. Pokhran II. Check it up. Some interesting stuff. I'm sure you will have something to add.

 

[Energon]

Not really, Pak only has only kilotonne devices which do not kick up mass fallout. Their nuklear arsenal is quite limited. 50 million was being generious based on the factors you listed.
The only reason to detonate a nuke in the atmosphere is to induce an EMP wave or trying to intercept a nuke with another nuke. The casualties would be minimal.
With less than 100 warheads less than 100 kilotonnes, it will not be that pronounced.
The largest warheads India tested were 200kt. Pakistan will lose its major cities but the rural areas will remain.

The radiation and the environmental factors would be enough to keep killing people in the millions for years to come. Heck just look into the impact of non radiation incidents to see the costs expounded upon human life including waterborne viral diseases in India. To not expect the projected casualties in the event of a nuclear disaster would be unwise.

Also, I think official estimates of the Pakistani arsenal are grossly under reported (for a reason of course). It seems Adrian Levy and Catherine Scott-Clark's assessment in regards to the Pakistani nuclear arsenal is gaining more and more acceptance, especially in light of China's heavy assistance.

It would be a mistake for India to overlook any of this and most of all to ignore the absolute lack of a public safety infrastructure without which a domino effect of epic proportions is guaranteed.

 

[nitesh]

I am doing some guess work here, need inputs also.

What is total destruction radius of 10kt bomb (10 sq km assumption). By assuming that Pakistan has 90 nos of 20kt bombs and ALL fall in to India successfully the maximum area that can be annihilated is 90 * 20 (no of bombs) * 20 (sq km area) = 36000 sq km area.

Now what is the area of India inhabitable. I m sure that this value is not even 10% of the annahilated area. and in that 10% of annihilated area we can't have more then 20% of population so max number is coming to 200 million. How the mgic figure of 500 million is reached no body knows.

Pl correct me if I am grossly mistaken

 

[Sridhar]

It could be even less.

What could a 20 kiloton weapon (equal to 20,000 tons of TNT detonating simultaneously) do? Bomb damage assessment charts suggest the following:

• People standing in the street at 2.7km from the blast have a 50% chance of being killed or injured — the closer you are, the worse your odds until you face a 100% guarantee of being killed.
• Buildings with a heavy reinforced concrete structure (most modern buildings) within 543 metres of the centre of the blast have a 50% of collapsing.
• There will be broken windows (with attendant casualties), minor fires and structural damage on all buildings within 3.8 kilometres.

Essentially, a 20 kiloton weapons in the heart of a modern city might cause as much physical damage as the 9-11 attack did, but it would do it instantly. At the World Trade Centre on that day, over 20,000 people had a chance to flee the buildings and as many more curtailed their trip to their offices. If al Qaeda had detonated a 20 KT bomb at street level outside the WTC say, around 9:30 AM, some 40,000 people would have been killed.


Nuclear War, Terrorism

 

[Sridhar]

Here are few inputs which may help

New York Nuclear Bomb Scare Kept Secret For Months

A 10-kiloton bomb detonated in Lower Manhattan could kill some 100,000 civilians, contaminate 700,000 more with radiation and flatten everything within half-a-mile of the blast, the news weekly reported.

Nuclear Terror Attack On New York Would Kill More Than 250,000: Study

The scenario is based on a bomb capable of yielding an equivalent TNT blast of 12.5 kilotonnes, smuggled into the port of New York aboard a shipping container and detonated at ground level.
"The blast and thermal effects of such an explosion would kill 52,000 people immediately, and direct radiation would cause 44,000 cases of radiation sickness, of which 10,000 would be fatal," the authors say.
"Radiation from fallout would kill another 200,000 people and cause several hundred thousand additional cases of radiation sickness."
Nuclear Terror Attack On New York Would Kill More Than 250,000: Study

HYDESim: High-Yield Detonation Effects Simulator


Results of Hydesim for 20 KT



15 psi:0.67 km
5 psi:1.23 km
2 psi:2.15 km
1 psi:3.17 km
0.25 psi:8.12 km
0.1 psi:16.64 km

HYDESim maps overpressure radii generated by a ground-level detonation; these radii are an indicator of structural damage to buildings. No other effects, such as thermal damage or fallout levels, are included in this tool. Note that the displayed rings are "idealized"; that is, no account is taken of terrain, urban density, ground type, weather conditions, and so on.
The data used in HYDESim are based on information found in "The Effects of Nuclear Weapons", 3rd Edition, by Samuel Glasstone and Philip J. Dolan.
Overpressure Key

15 psi Complete destruction of reinforced concrete structures, such as skyscrapers, will occur within this ring.
Between 7 psi and 15 psi, there will be severe to total damage to these types of structures.
5 psi Complete destruction of ordinary houses, and moderate to severe damage to reinforced concrete structures, will occur within this ring.
2 psi Severe damage to ordinary houses, and light to moderate damage to reinforced concrete structures, will occur within this ring.
1 psi Light damage to all structures, and light to moderate damage to ordinary houses, will occur within this ring.
0.25 psi Most glass surfaces, such as windows, will shatter within this ring, some with enough force to cause injury.

MAP of Hiroshima

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/56/Hiroshima_Damage_Map.png

Note the MAximum distance where structural damage took place was 4.1 miles (8 km approx).

 

[Sabir]

I dont find any logic in this type of calculation. Rather we can consider different scenarios-

Say if Pakistan attack first and India is too late to neutralise them....that means Pakistan got the opportunity to use a large part of its arsenal on Indian cities like Mumbai, Delhi, Bangalore, Ahmedabad etc. Oweing to the population density of Indian cities the direct and indirect casualties will be enormous. It will definately affect India's retaliating capacity to limited extent.

If India goes for a quick reaction or for a pre-emptive strike Pakistan will hardly get any opportunity to retaliate owing its lack of territorial depth. Most part of its second strike capability will be gone in the process. Even if they can retaliate the scenario will less devastating than first case.

I dont think any of these two countries will use nuke for strategic strike..i.e ....one or two limited attack...No chance....Both of will try to put others on knees when they will make up their minds for nuke.

There is hardly enough empirical data to guess the actual casualties.....

 

[MMuthu]

I can not recall when and where exactly; our ex army chief Mr. Padamnabhan had quoted something like that in a press meet.

He gave a Interview to Sun TV.

---------- Post added at 08:02 AM ---------- Previous post was at 08:00 AM ----------

There is hardly enough empirical data to guess the actual casualties.....

What ever may be the case, If Pakistan uses Nuclear weapons there will be no Pakistan in World map.

 

[MMuthu]

There is hardly enough empirical data to guess the actual casualties.....

What ever may be the case, If Pakistan uses Nuclear weapons there will be no Pakistan in World map.

 

[Yusuf]

Nuclear Warfare 101
Nuclear Warfare 102
Nuclear Warfare 103

Read this everyone.

Stuart Slade is a nuclear targeteer.
All misconception about the bigger the better and other misconceptions will be removed.

He says 80% of London can survive a one Megaton Impact.

Also for those talking about first strike, see what it takes to inflict a first strike.

OoE at my request has posted this link many times before, but i have never seen anyone read and come back.

 

[Vladimir79]

The radiation and the environmental factors would be enough to keep killing people in the millions for years to come. Heck just look into the impact of non radiation incidents to see the costs expounded upon human life including waterborne viral diseases in India. To not expect the projected casualties in the event of a nuclear disaster would be unwise.

The bombs your people landed on Japan have not kept killing people. The effects are minimal in such low yields. Ground Zero of Hiroshima and Nagasaki are vibrant communities today. The effects of waterborne viral disease has little to do with a nuklear explosion. There are not going to be new pathogenic microrganisms introduced into the water unless sewage facilties are off line. Indian river water is already heavily contaminated.

Also, I think official estimates of the Pakistani arsenal are grossly under reported (for a reason of course). It seems Adrian Levy and Catherine Scott-Clark's assessment in regards to the Pakistani nuclear arsenal is gaining more and more acceptance, especially in light of China's heavy assistance.

China only gave them 25kt designs. The total yield of their arsenal is not going to come close to wiping out half of India.

It would be a mistake for India to overlook any of this and most of all to ignore the absolute lack of a public safety infrastructure without which a domino effect of epic proportions is guaranteed.

70% of Indians still live in rural villages which are not going to be on a target list. Wiping out a a few cities isn't going to make much difference to them. They know what it is to survive on subsistance.

 

[musalman]

Nothings going to happen Martian. Its a rubbish report.
Trust you bottom cent, India and Pakistan will never use nukes.

I agree to that

India for sure never use nuke.. But Pakistan I am not sure maybe or not.
India hold no first use policy. But one lunch detected against india, Pakistan feel its consequence.

And you guys call us brain washed !!!

 

[dineshchaturvedi]

Seriously thinking this report is good for India, Pakistani's have stopped thinking about Nuking India and now talk of peace. I am not a supporter of nukes but Pakistan is blackmailing on nukes for long.

 

[Yusuf]

Its a BS report. And it has reached 4 pages of discussion on this thread.
Really not worth it.