I don't think the US considers China to be a major threat to the Western establishment. On the economic front sure China has made its presence felt but China isn't actually capable of projecting power and therefore is not a major threat to the West.
As for India becoming a super power in 20-30: highly doubtful. First I would start with definition of super power. I think it could be defined as a power that is capable of subduing any other adversary it meets along the way AND capable of influencing the world for its own interests at the expense of the adversary's interest or anybody else's interest. No, during the cold war there was NO super power; in the 80s the US emerged as the super power. Second, geography puts India at a disadvantage as far as the superpower game is concerned. For India to be able to enforce its will, it needs foremost a very strong Navy, not the case now or for foreseeable future. Third, India needs a strong manufacturing base, not there as of now. Next, India has several internal fissures which can conveniently be exploited by external powers, thanks to the fact the we have adopted Western democracy. So on and so forth
So as far as superpower stairway goes, India hasn't started climbing the stair yet. So difficult to say if and when it will become a superpower.
Though I would agree that India has got vast potential. It needs to be channeled properly.
Also in the future, if China is a power that is able to threaten and provide a viable opposition to India, automatically that means India is not a super power. There can't be 2 super powers. If India has to be "super power" then China can not be. In that case it may be a good for India, if Tibet and Xinjiang are not in Chinese grips and Han are confined to East Asia. But this seems far from possible as the Chinese have these two regions: the treasure chest of China and the water tower of Asia firmly in their grip. The Chinese must be thanking their lucky stars that the dalai lama and his groups went to India rather than some more powerful country.
It will be interesting to see how India reacts when China starts asserting more power on waters of rivers originating in Tibet. These rivers will have lowers output in the near future thanks to receding glaciers.
I think you are exaggerating, a bit.
-Everything in American policy, every recent military and strategic report names China as the number one threat to American dominance and security. The entire American policy is based on a shift to Asia to contain China.
-China isn't a threat to the west YET, but based on growth patterns it will become a threat soon, so the West is preparing now.
-India has a very strong navy, one of the strongest in the world already. It is growing at a rate much faster than other major nations except China.
-There were 2 super powers in the cold war, the USA after the fall of the Soviet Union is classified as a "Hyper-Power" according to most political textbooks.
-How do you figure geography puts India at a disadvantage? India's geography has many advantages as well, think cutting off the oil supply from the Middle East, massive coast lines, unrivaled major power in South Asia etc...
-India has 1/5th of the world's population and hence already affects a massive amount of humanity, that alone would be enough to consider yourself a super-power in one way. But being the 4th largest military and the 3rd largest economy by PPP or 8th by GDP nominal is also a good start on the path.
-Your point about "there can't be 2 super powers" is silly, you've just invented your own definition now of the term and it is incorrect.
To all the Anti-India nay sayers, let me point out a few things. World politics is very complex and you need not only look at how things are today but at "trends", the places things are headed. For example China has done very well, but that does not make it the only successful nation in the history of the world. There are many trade offs China has made for rapid growth, prices that will have to be paid long term. There will be more and more push for democracy and that transition will be very hard on China's economy eventually, there will be a price to pay when the never ending stream of cheap credit from having very kids and many working age members depositing their savings into banks suddenly start to pull their money out of the system for retirement.
-No I am probably under stating India's advantage.
1) China's economy matched India just 8 years ago in 2006. A few percentage points in India's favor could easily reverse the trend over the next 20-30 years. People who think it's silly to say India will be a super power in 20-30 years don't seem to understand trends. Look what China did in just 8. 20-30 years seems a VERY long time.
2) Since the 1970's the American economy has expanded roughly 3x, India's economy has expanded 24 times!!! Yes some Indian's might be poor or sh!t in the streets and I'm sure it's fun for Westerners and others to point that out, but the simple truth is India is rising and no one will prevent India from becoming a massive world power in the near future. In 1996-1998 when Bill Clinton visited India a US president hadn't visited India in 16+ years. Now the American media themselves are saying it would be unthinkable for a US president to not visit India at least once while in office.
