India to topple Japan as world's 3rd-largest economy

ejazr

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GDP was 1.5 trillion at the end of last year, growth was like 8%. Do the math. It ain't 2 trillion.
Actually according to the IMF, India grew at 10.4% faster than China at 10.3% You have to rationalize figures and growth numbers and that is what bodies like the World Bank and IMF do.
India outpaces China
Winning the growth World Cup

But really, its just a 1-2 year period before India becomes a 2 trillion economy and beats Japan in PPP. There is no question about that.
 
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nrj

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This was estimated several years back. Good to see recent economic crisis has not affected the outcome.
 

Singh

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Two-trillion India


India is poised to join the coveted club of economies whose national income, or gross domestic product (GDP), exceeds $2 trillion. According to recently released data, India's nominal GDP is expected to grow at 14 per cent in 2011-12, to reach Rs 90 lakh crores. At a dollar exchange rate of Rs 45, this works out to $2 trillion. However, if inflation is assumed to be 7 per cent and the real growth rate is 9 per cent as projected, the growth rate of 14 per cent may actually understate nominal growth rate by 2 percentage points, which means India's nominal GDP in dollar terms will actually exceed $2 trillion this fiscal!

India's nominal GDP crossed the $1 trillion mark in 2007-08, which implies GDP has doubled in four years. Applying the 'rule of 72' would mean India's average annual growth rate of nominal GDP during the period is a stupendous 18 per cent! That it was achieved in a milieu of pervasive economic gloom makes the feat even more impressive. Amidst the prevailing euphoria, it may be time to take a pause. The future may well be less perfect than we imagined. First, the magic number of $2 trillion is based on an exchange rate of $45 to the dollar. If the rupee were to depreciate, India's nominal GDP would be lower for the same level of output. Second, in celebrating the nominal as opposed to the real GDP, we may be losing sight of the contribution of inflation. The difference between real and nominal GDP is inflation, and so for a given level of real GDP, the higher the inflation the more rapidly would nominal GDP increase. This is clearly an undesirable outcome for everybody.


Statistical convolutions aside, the health of the Indian economy needs a candid review, particularly in light of potential downsides that could derail the genuine progress the Indian economy has made over the past two decades. The slowdown in virtually all sectors of the economy, barring a few select industries like 'transport, logistics and communication', which has been growing annually at 25 per cent, is indeed worrisome. Growth in the agriculture sector continues to be dampened by under-investment, despite some increase during the past five years. This has resulted in the sector being caught in a classic low productivity trap. Manufacturing too is spinning on its wheels, with annual growth rates stubbornly in the single digits. This reflects deeply embedded structural problems, which have been discussed in this space. India's economic growth continues to rely on the service sector growing at or around 10 per cent annually, which renders it vulnerable to global shocks.

The situation on the supply side also leaves a lot to be desired. This particularly applies to the tardy progress in the development of infrastructure and investment in human development, which is already holding India back. Apart from the bottlenecks and the shortcomings that are holding India back, the recent spurt in growth has also been accompanied by increased inequality, with the rich becoming richer. Hence, even as India pursues policies that enhance and sustain growth, there is a need to ensure greater equity in the growth process. India has much to celebrate by way of economic progress, but there is still some way to go in making this growth process more socially, economically and regionally inclusive.

http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/two-trillion-india/427402/
 

Poseidon

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Next Stop beat UK in GDP nominal followed by France ,Germany & then Japan.
 

amitkriit

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Congratulation, it's about time, India.

But watch out, you are gradually in US radar screen now. They will first promote you to the level you never have been, stir up your relationship with China and mess up both of you.
China is our neighbor we cannot change this fact. USA will not let go it's global status and will never allow China and/or India to topple it from the top of the pyramid. For me its very important that we don't let foreign powers to exploit any divide between us and our neighbors, we must be confident enough to deal with our problems on our own, bilaterally.

Asia must belong to Asians.
 

p2prada

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Two-trillion India


India is poised to join the coveted club of economies whose national income, or gross domestic product (GDP), exceeds $2 trillion. According to recently released data, India's nominal GDP is expected to grow at 14 per cent in 2011-12, to reach Rs 90 lakh crores. At a dollar exchange rate of Rs 45, this works out to $2 trillion.
Armand,

Our GDP is doubling every 4 to 5 years. This was the news in 2007-08 period.

The Hindu : Business : India joins trillion dollar club
India joins trillion dollar club
It is rooting-tooting obvious that we are gonna be a $2Trillion economy in the 2012-13 period even after facing the economic crisis. you don't need a new article to state the obvious.

We will be a $4-5Trillion economy by 2018 and that doubling every 5 years for the next 20 odd years. Do the Math.

One of our biggest industrialists(one of the Ambanis from Reliance Group, I am guessing Mukesh) claimed India will have a GDP of $9Trillion by 2020 with present exchange rate.
 

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