'India to gallop at 9% for 20 yrs'

[LETHALFORCE]

'India to gallop at 9% for 20 yrs' - Hindustan Times

Indian economy is expected to grow at an average rate of 9.3% per annum over the next two decades, said a report of Standard Chartered Bank titled 'India in Super-Cycle', released on Wednesday. The report said that India could become the world's third-largest economy by 2030, after China and United States.

"The Super-Cycle Report projects that China is likely to overtake the US to become the world's biggest economy over the next decade, while India could become the world's third-largest economy by 2030," said Gerard Lyons, chief economist and group head of global research, Standard Chartered Bank.

According to the report India is likely to grow faster, on average, than China over the next two decades. "We factor in a trend rate of growth of 6.9% for China, allowing for setbacks along the way, and of 9.3% for India, again taking into account the business cycle," said Lyons.

The report adds that India has tremendous potential to catch up with China and the developed world. "Based on our forecasts, India's nominal GDP (gross domestic product) could top $30 trillion by 2030, against its current level of around $1.7 trillion. By 2030, India could be 8.4 times bigger than it is today" he said.

The report defines a super-cycle as a period of historically high global growth, lasting a generation or more, driven by increasing trade, high rates of investment, urbanisation and technological innovation, characterised by the emergence of large, new economies, first seen in high catch-up growth rates across the emerging world.

The report also said that India would have some challenges to face. "India needs to overcome its regulatory burden and address its infrastructure needs to achieve the desired growth," he said.

There is a need for continued improvement in education, health care and skills as India provides the sizeable educated labour force needed for its private sector to grow, the report added.

 

[Armand2REP]

I have said it before about China and I will say it again for India... long term forecasts mean NOTHING.

 

[Yan Luo Wang]

I have said it before about China and I will say it again for India... long term forecasts mean NOTHING.

I completely agree.

People can't even predict what will happen in the next week, let alone 20 years.

 

[civfanatic]

People can't even predict what will happen in the next week, let alone 20 years.

Agreed.

If someone last week told me that Pakistan's largest naval base would get bombed, I would have laughed and told them to stay away from the Afghan opium.

 

[thakur_ritesh]

people in the business of making predictions make millions and billions so its certainly not as if these prediction only end up in the dustbins or account for nothing and are certainly used up by guys who look to invest or people looking for short/mid/long term market guidance and without a doubt there will be a lot of catch in between in the report with lots of ifs and buts, and a definite propaganda tool by the country which gets mentioned to attract investments, other than that yeah, with a uncertain future anything is possible, india could pretty well better that!

 

[satish007]

it is possible true even better because Indian are so smart ,but it base on if India could
1/ solved border dispute peacefully and intelligenttly
2/ stop caste system
3/ focus on infrasturture and industry

 

[Yan Luo Wang]

I think it is "reasonable" to say, that China and India will one day be among the largest economies on Earth, due to sheer population size and economic growth.

The question is, when.

And nobody really knows.

 

[utubekhiladi]

I think it is "reasonable" to say, that China and India will one day be among the largest economies on Earth, due to sheer population size and economic growth.

The question is, when.

And nobody really knows.

wait another 5-6 years... that's it...

 

[A chauhan]

it is possible true even better because Indian are so smart ,but it base on if India could
1/ solved border dispute peacefully and intelligently
2/ stop caste system
3/ focus on infrastructure and industry

Agree on 1 and 3 but caste system is not a problem in India at all, recent trends and urban life style show we are getting out of it, the most serious problem which we are facing is corruption :

According to the data provided by the Swiss bank, India has more black money than rest of the world combined. India topping the list with almost $1500 Billion black money in swiss banks, followed by Russia $470 Billion, UK $390 Billion, Ukraine $100 Billion and China with $96 Billion.

$1.4 Trillion India's Black Money Stashed in Swiss Banks

I wonder how much we can do with that huge amount of money, look at MMRCA which is considered mother of all defense deals is only about $10.5 billion as compared to $1500 billion black Indian money in swiss banks. Indian govt. should take some serious steps to get back that money.

 

[utubekhiladi]

I completely agree.

People can't even predict what will happen in the next week, let alone 20 years.

we don't even know what color of underwear we are going to put on tomorrow

 

[utubekhiladi]

Agree on 1 and 3 but caste system is not a problem in India at all, recent trends and urban life style show we are getting out of it, the most serious problem which we are facing is corruption :

$1.4 Trillion India's Black Money Stashed in Swiss Banks

I wonder how much we can do with that huge amount of money, look at MMRCA which is considered mother of all defense deals is only about $10.5 billion as compared to $1500 billion black Indian money in swiss banks. Indian govt. should take some serious steps to get back that money.

the trillon dollars is in term of rupees... not dollars.. correct me if i am wrong...

 

[Singh]

you are wrong, as you usually are.

 

[nrj]

The Mother of all evil is Speculation.

 

[civfanatic]

I can bet one month of wage with anyone that by 2030, while india could very well claim to have the 3rd largest GDP in the world, the quality of life for an average indian will not be significantly better than he/she has now.

So far, the facts have not matched your rants.

India's per capita income today is 7 times greater than it was in 1980, and it has been growing rapidly since 2000.

Be prepared to lose your one month's wage.

 

[amitkriit]

That's exactly what I was refering too. The GDP numbers have ballonend, but the actual output in goods has stagnated (1/10th of China's in amny sectors including foods) whereas the number of poor has actually gone up. Food consumption has not gone up, only the prices have gone up. (Real) illiteracy rate has stayed the same whereas number of starving children have gone up. The cites have basically remained the same as they were decades before, pitiful, dusty, smelly, but more crowded. The whole country is still more or less relying on the infrastructure built by the colonial masters. indians are natural-born optimists, but unfortunately their optimism is illfounded. Day after day they awake to face the harsh reality of their country, yet time again they are being told that their country is on the march to achieve super-power status.

Will you take the pain of supporting your claims through citations? You sound like Zaid Hamid's parrot.

 

[nrj]

The same kind projections have been made countless times before, starting no later than the middle 90's. I thought the self-claimed experts have learnt the peril of having a big mouth, but apparently they have not. For god's sake we are talking about a country that is home to 40% of world's absolute poor, where half of the population have no access to sanitary facility, where 46% of all children are malnutritioned, where the government has just defined a not-poor person as one who earns more than 19 rupee (50cents) a day.

I can bet one month of wage with anyone that by 2030, while india could very well claim to have the 3rd largest GDP in the world, the quality of life for an average indian will not be significantly better than he/she has now.

Firstly, thats again a speculation.

And seriously one month wage?? How much it can be?? That too in 2030?

 

[Falcon]

That's exactly what I was refering too. The GDP numbers have ballonend, but the actual output in goods has stagnated (1/10th of China's in amny sectors including foods) whereas the number of poor has actually gone up. Food consumption has not gone up, only the prices have gone up. (Real) illiteracy rate has stayed the same whereas number of starving children have gone up. The cites have basically remained the same as they were decades before, pitiful, dusty, smelly, but more crowded. The whole country is still more or less relying on the infrastructure built by the colonial masters. indians are natural-born optimists, but unfortunately their optimism is illfounded. Day after day they awake to face the harsh reality of their country, yet time again they are being told that their country is on the march to achieve super-power status.

I think you are more or less correct. The shiny part of our country (Malls, IT companies etc) is not the real face of the country. There is no control over law and order, food inflation, military strength etc. I live in Bangalore and the infrastructure is so poor that it cannot be described in one line. Government plans to build more and more flyover but the road below these flyovers sucks. They plan to build metro but power cut is a major issue. We see more and more restaurants everyday but access to clean drinking water is a dream for millions. Garbage lies at every corner and they are cleared once a day.

This seems to be a reality and as far as citation is concerned, people should find it for themselves. Living in dreamworld won't help us. We have so many poor people, young generation is far away from savings......list is endless. But that does not mean we are not trying. We need to try harder...

 

[Pintu]

GDP growth projection may be lowered

GDP growth projection may be lowered
BS Reporter / New Delhi May 28, 2011, 0:27 IST

The finance ministry is planning to lower its growth forecast of 9 per cent for the current financial year. The downward revision may come in the wake of rising global commodity prices and high inflation.

"This year, because of changing global scenario and many other important organisations having downgraded India's growth rate, we have decided that we would go back and take another look at our (GDP) numbers in mid-June," Chief Economic Advisor Kaushik Basu told a press conference.

The mid-term review of the economy was due in October 2011, but the finance ministry has decided to review its projections next month itself due to the changing economic scenario.

Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee has already said high inflation and any further rise in crude oil prices may pull down India's economic growth to 8 per cent from a projected 9 per cent.

Wholesale price-based inflation fell to 8.66 per cent in April from the revised estimate of 9.04 per cent in the previous month, but economists cautioned that risks to inflation were rising from the demand side and fuel prices, which might even catapult it to double digits as the current financial year advanced.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its credit policy statement on May 3, reduced the growth estimates to 8 per cent, as it increased the policy rates for the ninth time in over a year. RBI decided to go for a sharper-than-expected 50-basis-point increase in policy rates to rein in inflation.

Basu said there would be some downward correction but declined to give a number. "My expectation is that it will be a small change," he said.

Earlier this month, Economic Affairs Secretary R Gopalan had also indicated that the government's finances could go awry if there was a bad monsoon and global crude prices continued to remain high. He said these two factors would play a key role in determining the fiscal deficit.

India's GDP growth rate for 2010-11 is estimated at 8.6 per cent, while it was 8 per cent in 2009-10. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has pegged the country's economic growth at 8.2 per cent in 2011.

The average price for the Indian basket of crude oil this financial year stands at $110.55 per barrel, compared to $85.09 a barrel last financial year.

 

[mattster]

Tony4562 point is very valid. He may have overstated it a bit, but the fact remains that GDP growth has very little to do with the poor-man in the streets. That is not that big an issue if you dont have a large portion of your population in the poverty cycle.

For countries like India and China that have more than 30-40% living in desparately poor conditions - 8%, 9%, or even 10% may not mean jack. The people who benefit most from GDP are the mid-level and upper-levels of society. There is very little trickling down to the poor. China has been able to change this a little by investing huge sums in construction and infrastructure which creates blue-collar employment.

 

[p2prada]

India is planning a $1Trillion investment over the next 5 years in infrastructure and construction as compared to $500Billion invested over the last 5 years. So, that will help alleviate poverty and increase demand for Blue collar workers.

The first 10 years are the most crucial for sustaining a 9% growth for over 20 years. If China managed it, then I guess we can too. FM is trying to decrease govt expenditure as well, so I don't know how that will take us. PPP is very very crucial.