Once there's a void like NATO pull-out China and Russia would fill it in no time under the SCO flag. Both Russia and China have enough leverages on Uzbek and Tajik (There's also a population of Uzebek and Tajik in China) plus Pakistan's connection with Pashtoon majority.
Karzai has gifted the world's largest copper mine and oil fields to China for protection in order not to follow the fate of
Afghanistan Online: The Hanging of Dr. Najibullah after Soviet was out.
Therefore rest assured Pakistan's strategic depth in Afghanistan will be secured.
India's gateway to Afghanistan would be choked once the US and Israel attack Iran.
Your entire post is full of assumptions:
- Except the SCO is nothing but an ego-stroking organization for the Chinese and Russians.
- Majority denotes 50+1, therefore there is no Pashtun majority in Afghanistan.
- Americans are not going anywhere. Karzai is flying to Washington next week to ink a security pact through 2024, which may be extended if need be.
-How exactly will Pakistan secure strategic depth when no one dares to take a pro-Pak position in Afghan polity and their proxies are too weak to hold anything of value? If there is one thing Afghans can agree on, it is their hatred for Pakistan due to their support of proxies since 1992.
- And we have given massive iron blocks to the Indians. So what? The copper deal was not negotiated in good faith and the next government will take a serious look at it.
- The route may get chocked during the initial days of the war, but it might as soon open again. The route from Chabahar to Nimruz is populated by the Baluch who have no great sympathy for Iran, and the Iranian province of Sistan-Baluchistan will be of little consequence during an Israeli attack.
India has more leverage than Russia and China combined, by leaps and bounds. The latter countries can never hope to attain the cultural relativity we share with the Indians.
