India Takes First Step Towards Indus Water Treaty Withdrawal

[Yusuf]

Kashmir do, paani lo should be the message conveyed to pakistan in no uncertain terms. They are only laato ke bhoot. No matter what india does for pakistan and even bend over backward, the inherit anti indianism in pakistan will make sure they will come up with newer issues. India is plain unlucky to have such a neighbor who believes in drowning and taking others with it too

 

[ajtr]

"We will have to look beyond the Indus Water Treaty."

At the recent foreign secretary-level talks between India and Pakistan in New Delhi, Pakistan’s foreign office team presented a paper on water issues to India prepared by Pakistan’s Indus Water Commission. Although water is not a core issue for the resumption of talks between the two nuclear neighbours, differences over the use of rivers assigned according to the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty have undercut peace-making efforts. As Pakistan and India’s populations grow, water for agriculture and electricity generation is in short supply. Pakistan’s Indus Water Commissioner Jamaat Ali Shah talks to Dawn.com about the urgent need to resolve water-sharing disputes.

Q. India says the Kishenganga project does not violate the Indus Waters Treaty. What is Pakistan’s position?

A. The Kishenganga River runs through Kashmir, and becomes the Neelum River. Water flows through Azad Jammu and Kashmir for 165 km before joining the Jhelum at Muzaffarabad. Now 70-80 kilometres of this river also run through Occupied Jammu and Kashmir. So the water re-routed by the Kishenganga power project reduces the flow of water going to Muzaffarabad. And then, Pakistan also has one project on the Jhelum River – the Neelum-Jhelum hyrdro-electric power project.

What are the adverse impacts of this one project according to the Indus Water Treaty? One, it reduces our annual energy generation. Two, the Kishenganga project also has an environmental impact because the depth of the water is reduced and this has an impact on the flora and fauna in Azad Jammu and Kashmir through which the Neelum flows. Three, there are technical problems in the design of the Kishenganga project such as the height of the gates and so on.

Q. But India contends that that it started its Kishenganga project earlier than Pakistan’s Neelum-Jhelum project. According to the Indus Water Treaty, India may construct a power plant on the rivers given to Pakistan provided it does not interfere with existing hydro-electric use by Pakistan. Is this true?

A. Yes. But the Jhelum waters were given to Pakistan. And going by the spirit of the treaty, while the waters are Pakistan’s to use, both countries can accrue benefits. When India made its plans known to Pakistan, that did not mean Pakistan did not have the intention [of constructing a plant]. In 1989, we told India that we are constructing a project there. India wanted to inspect the site. At the time, it was only a small exploration tunnel. Now the intention has been shown, with the Chinese being given the project. So we have a legal case.

Moreover, while the total quantity of water has not been changed, there are no guarantees that India will not store or divert water into the Wullar barrage. Certainly, re-routing will impact the flow-time and therefore reduce the quantum of water [to Pakistan].

Q. Where are talks between India and Pakistan on the Kishenganga project now?

A. In 1988, we came to know about Kishenganga and we asked for details. We were told that India was just conducting investigations. India is obliged by the treaty only to give detailed plans six months prior to construction.

In 1992 or 1993, India asked to conduct its first inspection of the site of the Neelum-Jhleum project in Azad Jammu and Kashmir. That was when there was just an underground tunnel. India told us unofficially that the tunnel was an eye-wash.

Then in 1994, we were officially informed about Kishenganga, which was to be a 330 watt storage work. Now in a storage work, there is no mention of diversion.

The commission held five meetings between 1994 and 2006 and the storage height of the dam was ultimately reduced by 40 metres. But by 2006, Kishenganga became a run-off project. Pakistan’s position was that this is a new project, the run-off was not in the 1994 project, and the 1994 project should be considered abandoned.

In June 2006, we raised objections. Between 2006 and 2008 the commission held three meetings. In 2008, Pakistan informed India that it intends to seek the opinion of a neutral expert appointed by the World Bank. India said Pakistan has no case and that there is no controversy since the Kishenganga project does not harm Pakistan’s usage. India wanted to resolve the issue at the level of the commission. So the government of Pakistan agreed to meet representatives of the government of India, but the meeting proved inconclusive.

So India and Pakistan agreed to negotiations, and in March 2009, Pakistan proposed two names of negotiators. But the Indian stance remained the same. According to the treaty, if negotiations reach a deadlock than a court of arbitration can be constituted with seven experts: two from the government of Pakistan, two from the government of India and three jointly named umpires. If these names are not jointly agreed upon, then the World Bank would help.

Pakistan’s point of view is that the direction of flow and environmental impact of the dam should be addressed by the court of arbitration, while the matter of design would be decided by the neutral expert.

Now, the Pakistan Indus Water Commission has shortlisted several names and these are with the foreign office and the law and justice ministry who have to finalise Pakistan’s two names.

Q. Will Pakistan be taking up other Indian projects with the World Bank?

A. As I said, India is planning two more power projects on the River Indus. But those of concern are the ones on the Chenab because we don’t have any storage site there. So the Chenab is more vulnerable. After constructing three, including Baglihar, India intends to construct 10 to 12 more dams on the Chenab and its tributaries.

Certainly, the treaty gives India the right, but the designs should be compliant. Already, India constructed the Wullar barrage unilaterally without informing Pakistan.

Q. It is said that the Baglihar dam issue was settled by the World Bank in India’s favour because Pakistan did not raise the objections in time. Do you agree with that?

A. Both parties had different points of view. When we approached the World Bank, India blocked us because it did not want a neutral expert. So the fact that a neutral expert was appointed was a small victory. The expert asked for documentation from us, which we provided. India believed that Pakistan was maligning them, but the fact is that the neutral expert settled three points in favour of Pakistan and one in India’s favour. And both parties bore the cost of the proceedings.

Both India and Pakistan need these waters and there is a need for candidness and transparency. Political considerations should not shadow the technical aspects. Unfortunately, the technical side is subordinate to the political side.

For example, India did not provide us updated flow data. In August 2008, India violated the treaty by not providing accurate data on the initial filling of the Baglihar dam. The treaty says the initial filling should not reduce the water flowing into Pakistan. So the initial filling of the Baglihar reduced Pakistan’s water and India should compensate for the lost water.

Q. What impact has the construction of Indian power projects had on Pakistan’s waters? We are, after all, facing shortages for agricultural use and electricity generation.

A. Apart from the Baglihar dam, neither Pakistan nor India has had problems with the Indus Water Treaty. But looking to the future, I foresee problems, especially given climate changes. India has already constructed 50-60, medium-sized projects and it plans more than a hundred. One hundred and fifty will be in the small catchment areas in Occupied Jammu and Kashmir. This is human intervention: imagine how many trees will be cut, and the resulting environmental impact? They will also impact Pakistan’s water, given the environmental degradation and increased sediment flow.

I think we will now have to look beyond the treaty for solutions. India is allowed run-off hydro-electric projects according to the treaty, but two or three is different from more than a hundred.

In 1960, Pakistan did not want to give three of its rivers to India, but it did. But clearly the World Bank had not factored in climate change and the impact of human intervention. I think the World Bank treaty is likely to be jeopardised. Already, we are facing a shortage in the western rivers, how can we then compensate for the lack of water in the eastern rivers?

Q. Do you think it is time to expand the scope of the treaty?

A. There are some issues with that. Right now, we need to protect and implement the treaty in its full spirit without re-visiting it. But both governments should initiate talks along with expert stakeholders.

Q. Would this be in India’s interest?

A. Yes, because we are neighbours. The Indus Water Treaty was not a happy marriage but we accepted it. But Pakistan should take action at the appropriate time: what happens to the state of Bahawalpur where the rivers Sutlej and Ravi are dry?

 

[ajtr]

Right from horse mouth dawn news.akistan’s Indus Water Commissioner Jamaat Ali Shah says india is not stealing water but its the mis management of pakistan that they r feeling the pinch now.there is no scarcity of water in pak just the mismanagement.pak politician are blaming india for their own mismanagement.

 

[ajtr]

India fully complying with IWT: Krishna

NEW DELHI: The Indian government is in full compliance with the Indus Water Treaty of 1960, India’s External Affairs Minister SM Krishna said on Thursday.

Replying to a question in the Indian parliament, Krishna said Pakistan’s charge of denial of its share of water was “completely baseless”. Reacting to a statement by Sardar Aseff Ali, adviser to the prime minister of Pakistan, that Islamabad would go to the UN Security Council or the International Court of Justice if India tried to build more dams that affect Pakistan’s share of water, Krishna said all issues regarding the implementation of the Indus Water Treaty should be resolved through the existing mechanisms under the treaty.

Concerning the number of Pakistanis visiting India and vice versa, he said data compiled by the Bureau of Immigration revealed that 53,154 Pakistanis had travelled to India in 2009, while the number was 79,783 in 2008. He also said the number of Indians going to Pakistan had dropped from 85,672 in 2008 to 44,949 in 2009.

 

[ajtr]

read the following blog of tariq tufail from karachi in which he proves that india is not stealing water but its the pakistani politician/jihadi/army's rehtoric and they are feeding pak public with lies


Indo-Pak Water Issues 101 – Tariq Tufail

Last week, the foreign secretaries of India and Pakistan met in New Delhi to end a “diplomatic freeze” between the two countries since the 2008 Mumbai attacks. According to Reuters’ Myra MacDonald, they did “what they were expected to do — laid out all the issues which divide the two countries and agreed to ‘keep in touch.’” However, the issue of water-sharing has been cause for contention between India and Pakistan over the years [it is also an internal issue in Pakistan among the provinces]. Below, Tariq Tufail, from Karachi, delves into the issues that stem from the 1960 Indus Water Treaty:

The Pakistan-India foreign secretary-level talks took place as scheduled. But curiously, apart from the usual rhetoric of “terrorism” from the Indian side and “Kashmir” from the Pakistani side in the run-up to the talks, water became the more prominent issue.

Though the water issue has been raised in the past, and is one of the sustaining factors behind Pakistan’s continued interest in Kashmir, the articulation of water as a core India-Pakistan dispute in such a distinct and clear manner is unprecedented. Within the space of two weeks, water was mentioned as one of the principal disputes between India and Pakistan by our Prime Minister, our foreign minister, our Chief of Army Staff (COAS) and curiously, even Hafeez Sayeed of LeT/JuD. In order to understand the issue better, it is important to first provide a background of the Indus Water Treaty (IWT).Broadly speaking, the IWT grants exclusive use of the three eastern tributaries of the Indus River – the Sutlej, Ravi and Beas Rivers - to India and the three western tributaries – Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab Rivers to Pakistan. India is entitled to use all of the 33 million acre feet (MAF) of water from the eastern tributaries, of which it currently uses 30 MAF. Of the three western tributaries, the Jhelum, Chenab and Indus itself, which carries a flow of 143 MAF, India is entitled to store 3.6 MAF and is allowed to irrigate 13,43,477 acres of land. India does not store any water as of now and irrigates 7,92,426 acres. In addition, India is entitled to build “run of the river” hydroelectric projects, which do not store water on the western tributaries. The rise in the country’s usage of the water allocated to India (which used to flow to Pakistan earlier) is stressing the water availability in Pakistan. In addition, reduced snowfall and shifting weather patterns is reducing the water inflow.

Cutting through the usual rhetoric of India “stealing” water, several possibilities have to be analyzed:

Pakistan is heightening the water issue to moderate the Indian negotiating tactic of focusing on terrorism
India is really stealing water and violating the treaty
India is not violating the “letter” of the treaty but the “spirit” of the treaty
India is neither violating the letter or the spirit of the treaty, but due to increased water requirements, Pakistan is laying the ground to re-negotiate the Indus Water Treaty
It will be fruitless to speculate on (1), so let us concentrate on (2), (3) and (4).

At this point in time, the Pakistani government has not proven that India has stolen water. The allegation of Indian water theft has not been substantiated by either telemetry readings submitted by India or by water monitoring by Pakistan and has not been raised during the meetings of water commissioners of India and Pakistan. Moreover, because water sharing between Pakistan’s provinces is a contentious issue, water monitoring in Pakistan is a murky issue. To prevent discord among the provinces, monitoring sensors installed by Siemens are frequently tampered with and some monitoring sensors are regularly lost due to theft and sabotage. Even our Indus water commissioner Jamaat Ali Shah and ex-finance minister, Dr. Mubashar Hasan agree that no provable water theft is being committed by India.

Therefore, the inescapable conclusion is that India is not violating the “letter” of the treaty, even if it may be maximizing its usage as accorded to India by the treaty. This is not enforceable in any court of law, and stirring domestic sentiment over such perceived “violations” reduces our policy options and creates disastrous consequences as the Baglihar episode showed, (for background on the Baglihar dam conflict, see this piece).

So what are the disadvantages of the massive construction spree by India?

The national security elements in Pakistan are concerned that even as India is not reducing the flow of water to Pakistan, it is rapidly acquiring the capability to do so by building dams. This is certainly an area of concern, but the IWT does not prevent India from being able to stop water flow into Pakistan at a future date. It only prevents India from stopping water flow. A positive aspect is that the IWT has stood the test of time, with no violations reported during the 1965, 1971, 1989, Kargil, Parakram and Mumbai standoffs.
Increasing India’s usage of the Indus is affecting Pakistan’s water supply and power projects. That is, the water that was allocated to India, which was previously un-utilized and subsequently flowed to Pakistan and was utilized by our farmers, is becoming increasingly scarce as India builds projects to exploit its share. Even though it causes massive problems in Pakistan, this point cannot be protested, since India is not in violation of the IWT. (For example, complaints about the Sutlej and the Ravi running dry are superfluous since India has exclusive rights to use the water of those rivers.)
So what can be done?

As pointed out beautifully by lawyer Ahmer Bilal Soofi, India cannot be compelled to give “concessions” to Pakistan as long as it complies with the letter of the IWT. Furthermore, any extraneous discussions about water sharing can be stymied by India, since water sharing according to the Indian stance is already settled by IWT. From their perspective, as long as India is not in violation of the treaty, there is nothing to discuss.

Of the remaining courses of action open to Pakistan, re-negotiation of the IWT has a very small chance of success (since both sides will try to get better terms than the current treaty even if India agrees to renegotiate). The right course of action is to massively modernize our irrigation infrastructure (it is estimated that up to 40% of water drawn from our head-works are lost due to seepage in unlined canals, theft and evaporation), stringently follow the inter-provincial water sharing accord of 1991, and gain the trust of the provinces so that new water projects such as Kalabagh can proceed without their objection while seeking unofficial concessions from India to tide over the interim 5-10 year period. However, seeking unofficial concessions might be a hard task, since it has to overcome the prevailing climate of suspicion between the two neighbors, as well as India’s own domestic interests like its own water requirements as well as the impact on public opinion and Indian farmers.

At the end of the day, the wrong course of action would be to stir public sentiment through half truths and lies and to involve non-state and Jihadi actors, which reduces the space for policy flexibility in Pakistan, and further hardens the Indian position.

 

[ajtr]

Tenders for 690 MW Ratle project opening Monday

Jammu, March 06: For the first time in Jammu and Kashmir, hydro-power projects will be allotted through tenders, a state government official said Saturday.

Earlier, major projects such as Uri, Salal and Dul Hasti were allotted to public sector National Hydro-Electric Projects Corporation (NHPC) through a memorandum of understanding (MoU). Similarly, the 450-MW Baglihar power project was given to a private company, Jaypee, also through a MoU.
The official said Chief Minister Omar Abdullah had instructed that the entire procedure of awarding projects should be transparent and the terms and conditions of their execution should be made public.
The state government has received nine bids from national and international companies for the 690 MW Ratle project in Kishtwar district, northeast of Jammu. Among the bidders are Tata Power, Reliance Power and Larsen and Toubro Power Development Ltd.
“These tenders would be opened on Monday (March 8),” the official said.
He said the Ratle project, which would be completed by 2016, would be given for 25 years to the highest bidder and would thereafter revert to the state.
The developer is expected to invest more than Rs.5,000 crore for the project, which is going to provide substantial employment opportunities to the youth of the state.
Currently, the demand for power in Jammu and Kashmir is 2,500 MW, but the state’s own generation is only 700 MW. The state also gets 12 percent of the 1,700 MW power generated in the state by the NHPC-run projects.
Meanwhile, the minister of state for Power Shabir Ahmad Khan has said that J&K has a huge power potential of 20000 MW which needs to be harnessed properly to make the state self reliant. “The process for execution of 300 more Power Projects have been started. The construction work on Baghilar-II, Sawalakote, Sewa-I,II and III, Kishanganga, Lower Jhelum-II Hydro-electric Power Projects have been taken up under State and Centre Sector,” he said adding the government would also encourage the construction of power projects under Joint venture and public-private partnership mode in the State.

 

[Rage]

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[Rage]

Water : Between India and Pakistan

 

[ajtr]

GVKPIL likely to get Rattle contract

Jammu, Mar 9: The GVK Power and Infrastructure Limited (GVKPIL), which turned out to be the lowest bidder, is likely to bag 690-Megawatt Rattle hydroelectric project to be constructed by the state government on river Chenab in Kishtwar district on BOOT (Build, Own, Operate and Transfer) basis. “Tenders for the prestigious power project were opened here this afternoon in presence of representatives from at least nine power companies who had qualified for the global tendering,” sources told Greater Kashmir. They revealed GVKPIL’s bid turned out to be lowest. “However, the finalization of the process will take at least two more days,” sources said adding, “It has to be seen if the company meets other pre-requisites before the project is allotted” Process of selecting private developers for the 690-Megawatt Rattle hydropower project to be constructed with an estimated cost of Rs 3,805 crore, was underway since 2008 when Jammu and Kashmir Power Development Corporation (JKDPC) floated global tenders. Nine developers including Tata Power, Reliance Power, Moser-Baer India, Larsen and Toubro, GVK Group, Jaypee Associates had qualified for the tendering process.
When awarded, the project over River Chenab in Drabshalla area of Kishtwar district proposed to be developed under a 40-year concession period on BOOT basis would set a big precedent for more private enterprise and capital.
This would be the first mega power project to be developed by the state on BOOT basis. Earlier the state used to construct the project by means of entering into a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with private companies assigned to construct the project.
Currently, 10 projects aggregating 107 Megawatt have been awarded to the private companies and in the coming months, this number is likely to multiply.
The Detailed Project Report (DPR) of the Rattle power project has been prepared by the NHPC Ltd. “Initially National Hydro Power Corporation (NHPC) was supposed to take up the project for execution. However, it was decided later that it will be implemented as a BOOT project through private sector participation with Jammu and Kashmir State Power Development Corporation (JKSPDC) being the grantor of concession,” sources said.
The NHPC, sources said, prepared and submitted the DPR of the project to Central Electricity Authority in March 2007. “It was returned by the authority as the project was given to NHPC for preparation of DPR only and the JK government had not authorized NHPC to establish, operate, and maintain the project,” they added.
Following this, NHPC requested the state government to allocate the project along with Kiru and Kawar hydroelectric projects in the state. However, the J&K government turned downed the request and insisted on execution of the projects through IPP.
Rattle project is a run-of-river type development scheme, planned across Chenab river, after its confluence with Marusudar river and is located near Drabshala town in Kishtwar district of the Jammu region.
The proposed construction period is 5-years from the date of government sanction. The infrastructural facilities would be developed concurrently with the process of obtaining various government clearances.

 

[ajtr]

Neelum-Jhelum Hydroelectric Project

Pakistan, India in race to complete dams in Kashmir; WAPDA to use tunnel boring machines for early completion

Saturday, March 27, 2010
By Mansoor Ahmad

LAHORE: To complete the Neelum-Jhelum Hydroelectric Project before Kishanganga Hydroelectric Project being built by India, the Water and Power Development Authority has decided use tunnel boring machine that will reduce the construction time by two years, official sources said.

“It is vital for Pakistan to complete the 969 MW Neelum-Jhelum Hydroelectric Project before India completes a similar project on the same rivers, so that Pakistan can claim its right to water use,” sources in WAPDA informed The News.

They said though India has usurped the right of Pakistan on Neelum water by planning to divert it for the run of river 348 MW Kishanganga Hydroelectric Project, its completion before the Neelum-Jhelum project would give India the right to use the water for electricity generation.

WAPDA officials said that the Kishanganaga project would reduce the hydroelectric potential of the Neelum Jhelum Hydro Project. Originally Kishanganga Hydroelectric Project located in the Indian Held Kashmir and Neelum-Jehlum Hydroelectric Project being built in Azad Jammu and Kashmir were to be completed in 2016, the issue of right to use water has pitched both the countries in a race for the river.

Excavation of tunnelling network through tunnel boring machine (TBM) will reduce implementation period of the Neelum-Jehlum Hydroelectric Project (NJHEP) by about two years, which would establish Pakistan’s right over Neelum water and India would not be able to divert it for use in Kishanganga project.

WAPDA sources said the completion of NJHEP earlier than the schedule is very vital for Pakistan not only to cope with the increasing demand of electricity in the country but also to establish priority rights of water uses over the river Neelum against India.

The use of TBM has remained limited in the past due fear of impact of drilling on weak geological formations. However, in the past decade tremendous improvements in tunnelling technology have been achieved, removing the fears associated with use of TBMs.

In the recent past the use of TBM has taken over the charge from the conventional method of tunnelling by drill and blast (D&B) method, NJHEP requires over 55 kilometre of tunnelling network.

In the engineering design made by the Norwegian Consultants in 1996, the excavation of tunnels was proposed through conventional drill and blast method, to be spread over a period of 90 months.

However, the use of TBM will significantly reduce this period by 24-28 months. Moreover, the use of TBM technology will also pave the way for execution of the upcoming hydropower projects in a lesser span of time, including the 1100-MW Kohala and 7100-MWBunji hydropower projects.

Sources said acquiring the TBM technology and equipment is in final stage as a technical delegation led by WAPDA Member (Water) Syed Raghib Abbas Shah, has already visited the manufacturing facilities and project in Germany and Switzerland.

The team, comprising WAPDA experts, the project consultants and a panel of independent experts unanimously concluded that the use of TBM would be beneficial for hydropower projects in Pakistan with special reference to NJHEP.On commissioning, NJHEP will generate 5.15 billion units of electricity annually, while benefits of the project have been estimated at Rs30 billion per annum.

Q1. Current Status
The project parameters were revised a few years back to prevent submergence of the Gurez valley. Accordingly, the height of the reservoir and consequently the live storage etc were considerably revised down without impacting the power generation capacity of the project. The following is the status early 2009

Infrastructure works are under progress.
Revised CCEA approval accorded in December, 2008.
Turnkey execution of the project awarded to M/s Kishanganga Consortium with HCC ld. As lead partner, M/s Halcow group ltd., UK as partner and M/s SELI SJZA Italy, M/s BHEL, M/s DSD NOELL GmbH Germany & M/s PES engineers Pvt. Ltd. As subcontractor on 22.01.2009.

Q2. What is the definition of 'work started'

The IWT states in Paragraph 2, Article VII, entitled "Future Cooperation", the following:

(2) If either Party plans to construct any engineering work which would cause interference with the waters of any of the Rivers and which, in its opinion, would affect the other Party materially, it shall notify the other Party of its plans and shall supply such data relating to the work as may be available and as would enable the other Party to inform itself of the nature, magnitude and effect of the work. If a work would cause interference with the waters of any of the Rivers but would not, in the opinion of the Party planning it, affect the other Party materially, nevertheless the Party planning the work shall, on request, supply the other Party with such data: regarding the nature, magnitude and effect, if any, of the work as may be available.

The above is very important. It is the intention to start the project as conveyed with whatever data is available at that time that is important, IMO. In the case of Kishenganga, it was conveyed in the 1990s to Pakistan. That was why Pakistan demanded that if it were to allow the Tulbul Navigation Lock project (aka Wullar barrage in Pakistan), India must not execute the Kishenganga project. That objection was raised by Pakistan in february 1992 after the Tulbul Navigation project was agreed upon by both governments in 1991. Soon after that, Pakistan decided to develop its Neelum-Jhelum project and expected to complete it during 1994-1997. Obviously, without the Kishenganga project, the Tulbul Navigation project is a non-starter. Anyway, it means that Pakistan was aware of the Kishenganga project a long time back. Besides, it has regularly brought up the issue of the project in every PIC meeting.

Item d of Paragraph 2 of Article III vests India with the rights to generate hydroelectric power according to Annexure D.

Item 3 of Paragraph 15 of Part 3 of Annexure D entitled 'New Run-of-River Plants' states

where a Plant is located on a Tributary of The Jhelum on which Pakistan has any Agricultural use or hydroelectric use, the water released below the Plant may be delivered, if necessary, into another Tributary but only to the extent existing Agricultural Use or hydroelectric use by Pakistan on the former Tributary would not be adversely affected.

Note that there is no *existing* hydroelectric use on this tributary. Pakistan may have an intent to build a plant in 2020, but that does not count according to the above. The *existing* agricultural use will be more than covered by the discharge from the plant anyway as such use is meagre according to the joint PIC survey already made. While completion of hydroelectric or agricultural projects is a must for Pakistan to claim relief according to IWT, it is not so for India. Otherwise it will be a contradiction of the IWT as Pakistan can simply stall any Indian project that India makes in good faith.

Q3. Funding issue

Pakistan will still implement its Neelum-Jhelum project but only thing would be reduced power generation and conseqently the price per unit to the customer would be on the higher side. Pakistan will have to then subsidize the consumers and incur a loss. It won't be a dead investment especially in a completely power-starved Pakistan. Besides, KSA's investment is meagre, USD 80 million only and we also don't know how much of it will come through eventually. Recently, KSA has not been giving cash directly to Pakistan (like the rest of the donors) and wants to fund only on project-basis and after a green signal from the IMF.


Annual review of work on kishanganga as of 2008-09

11. Kishanganga H.E. Project ( 330 MW), Jammu & Kashmir

Ø Project was cleared by CCEA in July 2007. CCEA clearance for revised Cost Estimate of Rs 3,642.04 crores with scheduled completion in 84 months (i.e. by January 2016) has been received vide letter dated 14.1.2009.
Ø The Project is proposed to be completed by January 2016.
Ø Letter of acceptance for award of the project has been issued on 22.1.2009 in favour of M/s Kishanganga Consortium (HCC-Halcrow) for turnkey execution.
Ø Mobilization and survey work has been started at site by contractor.
Ø 208m of Diversion tunnel stands excavated departmentally.

 

[ajtr]

Landslide Lake in Northwest Pakistan

recent massive landslide on Hunza river in pakistan

Hunza Lake: a looming disaster

IT was in the third week of July 2004, while traveling toward Khunjerab, that we stayed for a few hours at Atabad. The locals drew our attention towards a ‘crack’ in the slope above their village.

The crack approx 1 1/2feet wide also passed through some of the hamlets. It was generally felt that the November 2002 earthquake caused this crack, while some felt that the heavy snow accumulation of glaciers could have put pressure on the slope.

Authorities were informed by the locals of the crack, which kept on widening, but no one took notice of it. I personally felt, that if no remedial measures are taken, this huge chunk of mountain side would one day slide into the river. No interest was shown at any level, and ignored was the willingness of the local people to be shifted to Punjab.
It was most disturbing, therefore, when on January 4, 2010 the news came, that the mountainside had actually collapsed, killing 13 people.

A steadily rising artificial lake, upstream of the blockage, continues to inundate vast stretches of agricultural lands and orchards, the only source of livelihood for thousands of people.

The increasing water pressure has the potential of breaching the massive debris, which has dammed the natural flow of the Hunza River for 2 km, if rapid preventive measures are not undertaken.

The effect a sudden breach would have downstream is unimaginable, as the Tarbela dam is the backbone of Pakistan’s economy, its agriculture and hydropower. Due to the loose nature of the debris which at its lowest point is 100m above the riverbed, and in the absence of any controlled spillway, this landslide dams may fail without any warning and can carry massive sediment (debris) with it. A common failure scenario may occur with a variety of failure processes which includes overtopping, seepage and sudden sliding caused by piping.

As the debris blocking the Hunza River is mainly fine-grained material, boulders and pebbles which do not have the capacity to support this dam much longer, especially since piping has already started. It is not unknown that a force of water can destabilise massive deposits and cause extreme devastation downstream.

The Indus River is one of the world’s largest rivers in term of water sediment loads and this massive debris (sedimentation) would have serious impact on Tarbala dam, as it could completely dislodge the vast delta which dramatically expanded over the past decades at the mouth of the Indus.

In case the dam created by the debris breaches, flash floods with a height of between 60 to 80 feet would create disaster along the embankments of the Indus River.

In other countries, risk analysis study would immediately have been undertaken by a team of remote sensing, GIS, hydrology and risk management experts to quantify the potential risk in case of a breach in the artificial lake/dam.

There is an urgent need to develop a high-resolution digital terrain model (DTM) to determine longitudinal profiles and cross-sections of the river at 500 meters interval up to Junction of Hunza and Gilgit River and then through to Besham Qila.

Simultaneously, a team of metrological department and Wapda needs to conduct a quick but comprehensive study using remote sensing images, digital elevation and housing data, hydrological and spatial analyses to quantify the potential risk in terms of affected population size and estimated property losses.

Emphasis needs to be placed on the characteristics of the breach, i.e. the geometry of a possible breach and how long it would take to develop needs to be formulated. Different types of dams tend to collapse in different ways and hence breach characteristics have to be defined first.

If this dam/lake is not thoroughly assessed and properly disposed of, it can pose a catastrophe for downstream areas including a major threat to Tarbela dam.

Given the loose nature of Attabad-Hunza landslide and the absence of a controlled spillway, this landslide dam may fail without any warning and can lead to downstream flooding with massive sediment (debris) flow.

A common failure scenario could occur by overtopping, seepage and sudden sliding through excessive piping. Therefore, priority should be given to engineered breaching with precise technique to control sediment flow before we have another “Zalzal Lake.” The “Zalzal Lake” was formed due to earthquake-2005 in Azad Kashmir and on February 09, 2010 its sudden failure caused water flooding onto the lower areas.

The best model for our experts is the case of the Tangjiashan Lake. It was created during 2008 Sichuan earthquake in an extremely rugged terrain of Tangjiashan mountain in China. The water level was rising at the rate of 8 feet a day.

When the capacity of lake reached more than 200,000 acre-feet, Chinese engineers, scientists, and army discussed the emerging threat and considered three options.

One was to use engineering techniques, including blasting, to release the water. The second was to reinforce the dam during the flood season. The third was to restructure the quake lake into a reservoir.

All three possibilities were evaluated after the speedy risk analysis study, including development of a high-resolution digital terrain model (DTM). After assessing all threats more than 250,000 people were evacuated from downstream area in anticipation of the Tangjiashan Lake dam bursting.

In May 2008, before the start of flood season it was finally decided to breach the dam. Chinese army took ten days to drain water from the lake.

Chinese army engineers used recoil-less guns, bazookas and dynamite to blast boulders and other obstructions in the channel and after final massive blasts broke through the “bottleneck” in the spillway, the water outflow speeded up drastically. So the Tangjiashan Lake was emptied and the threat of a huge disaster was averted.

 

[ajtr]

Pakistan-India water talks underway in Lahore

LAHORE: The three-day annual meeting of the Indus water treaty commission is underway in Lahore on Sunday where the agenda of the first round of talks is the two new power plants initiated by India.

The nine-member delegation of Indian water commission is headed by G Aranga Nathan while Jamaat Ali Shah is heading the Pakistani water commission.

According to Shah, the Indian commission has come to hear Pakistan’s point of view on the water dispute. The agricultural and hydroelectric uses of water allowed under the treaty will also be discussed.

The main agenda of first day is the decrease of water level in River Chenab and the construction of Nemobaaz Go and Chotak power plants at the River Sindh by India that will block 35,000 foot per acre water.

The Indian delegation has handed over the construction plan and map of the Nemobaaz Go power plant and briefing has been given in this regard by the Indian technical officers.

Moreover, the commissions have agreed to keep the free board height of Neemobaaz Go dam at one metre.

 

[ajtr]

No breakthrough expected in talks: Jamat Shah

Indus Water Commissioner of Pakistan Jamaat Ali Shah has said that no breakthrough has been expected in talks with Indian water officials. He was talking to media after completion of the first phase of the parleys. Pakistan has raised eight points of objections over Nimoo Bazgo water project in the talks with Indian water officials on Sunday. The Indian officials rejected six objections of the Pakistani delegation adding that remaining two objections will be responded after consultations with the country's top leadership. The three day talks on water related issues began in Lahore today with Indus Water Commissioner of Pakistan Jamaat Ali Shah and his Indian counterpart G Aranga Nathan leading the delegations of their respective countries.

 

[bhramos]

India plans 52 projects to control Pakistan's water

BUREWALA – Chairman Indus Water Treaty Council Hafiz Zahoor-ul-Hassan Dahr has said that previous 131 rounds of talks between Pakistan and India under Indus Water Treaty bore no fruits and the latest dialogue would meet the same result.

He also warned that Pakistan could become another Somalia and Ethiopia.

Talking to ‘The Nation’ on Monday, Zahoor pointed to various projects launched by India to divert the water flow of three rivers entering Pakistan from Occupied Kashmir and said these projects were aimed at controlling the water of Chenab, Jhelum and Indus rivers, which were illegal and a clear violation of Indus Water Treaty. He said India was constructing 52 illegal dams, including five large ones, of which as many as 32 small dams had already been completed while 12 others would be finalised in 2014.

Zahoor said New Delhi was also constructing Kargil Dam, the second largest in the world, on Indus, adding that that India was getting support from a consortium of nine non-Muslim countries, four multi-national companies, an international donor agency and three intelligence agencies to accomplish 17 mega water projects for controlling Pakistan’s water. He said India had seized 70 per cent water of Chenab and Jhelum rivers as a result of which over 0.9 million acres of land, being irrigated through Marala Headworks, was now presenting the view of Thar and Cholistan deserts.

Dahr said the Baglihar Dam was causing an annual loss of Rs140 billion to Pakistan and feared that India would soon stop entire water flow of Chenab and Jhelum rivers, turning 18 districts of Punjab and six districts of Sindh into a desert. He also accused Israel and the US for backing India, which resulted in bulldozing the Indus Water Treaty and lamented the fact that the international community was silent over the issue.

He urged the government to take the issue seriously to Indian water aggression. “If the rulers fail to adopt immediate measures, India will turn us into Somalia and Ethiopia,” he feared.

According to him, the anti-Pakistan forces have united and evolved a plan to turn the country into a desert and the irrigation system is being given to a Swedish company on contract to forward the vested interests of India. He said India was spending billions of dollars on this project with the financial support of Israel. He said it was very much clear that the Indian and Israeli lobbies were working on long-term projects to harm Pakistan.

http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-n...-plans-52-projects-to-control-Pakistans-water

 

[LETHALFORCE]

This is the first time I have heard of Israelis working on a water project in India?? Both Indian and Israeli lobbies working together to harm Pakistan.Pakistan's paranoia reaching new heights.

 

[Solid Beast]

This is an example of the purest form of Pakistani propaganda. dddddddddddddddddddd It makes no sense and to add injury to insult, pull 9 "non-Muslim" countries out of thin air to add legitimacy, like the whole world is after Pakistan just because Muslims happen to live there. This is another example of how Zaid Hamid is a true mouthpiece of ISI as is the source of this escalation trying to justify a possible future war over water.

 

[Yusuf]

The article is laughable at best. Pakistans own authority on indus river has said india has done nothing wrong or violated the treaty. Where does this issue of "non muslim" countries come into the picture? Why use that term? The involvement of three intelligence agencies takes the cake. Hights of paranoia. How can pakistan be ever taken seriously if they have zaid and clones being called strategic analysts? Are they really heard to by the authorities?

 

[Yusuf]

Come to think of it, its the same old victim card. non muslim world ganging up to parch pakistan.

 

[johnee]

hmm...why just 52, why not 72? Wouldnt that number look more impressive to the domestic audience that this figure is aimed at?

 

[ajtr]

cross-post

I'm curious about this report. The $200 billion Kargil dam on the Suru section of the Indus river is well within the western and northern boundaries of the Zanskar range. A flooded Indus river inundates the Srinagar-Kargil-Leh highway virtually every year. Just before Kargil, the Suru meets the Drass river and multiplies its volumes manifold. And the river itself is nourished by melting Himalayan glaciers, with the course of the Indus gradually shifting westward. So the Pakistanies have nothing to worry about this dam per say. Rather they ought to worry about such crude journalism talking about "non-Muslim" companies colluding to turn Pakisthan into another "Somalia and Ethiopia" (whatever the f^ck that means).

^^ its Shireen Mazari edited The Nation newspaper they always create America-india-israel or christian-hindu-jews or CIA-RAW-Mossad axis up against destroying pakistan.so you see this kind of yellow journalism from the trioka of Ahmed qureshi-Shireen Mazari-Zaid hamid.

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