India Shining - Goodbye

[Daredevil]

2012 Pew Survey on India Reveals Economic Pessimism

By Margherita Stancati


Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
The 'India Shining' narrative no longer strikes a chord with majority of the population. Pictured, New Delhi's India Gate.
Some argued it was gone long ago, and India's growth figures certainly suggested as much: India Shining is a thing of a past, a narrative that no longer strikes a chord with the majority of the country's population.

This is the bottom line of a new public opinion poll conducted by the U.S.-based Pew Research Center. The study, released Monday, reveals that more and more Indians are pessimistic about their country – especially when it comes to its economic performance.

This year, only 45% of people surveyed are hopeful the economy will improve over the next 12 months, a significant drop from last year's 60%. Compare this to Brazil and China, two other major emerging markets, where over 80% of people surveyed are confident their economies will improve over the next year.

Where does this pessimism come from?

"Faced with a slowing economy and political gridlock, Indians are dissatisfied with the ways things are going in their country, increasingly gloomy about the country's economic future and also worried about their children's economic prospects," the study said. "Gone is the sense of well-being and optimism that prevailed just a few years ago when many private economists forecast that Indian economic growth would soon surpass that in China," it added.

While the study didn't mention India Shining – conceptualized as a marketing slogan for the then-ruling Bharatiya Janata Party ahead of the 2004 election – this became the unofficial motto for the country's rapid economic growth in the mid-2000s.

But in recent years, growth figures started telling a different story.

India's economy expanded 5.5% in the April-June period. While this was higher than the 5.3% gross domestic product growth of the previous three months, it is a sharp drop from the over 9% expansion of early 2011.

Unsurprisingly, fewer people now describe economic conditions as "good": this figure has dropped to 49% from 56% in 2011, according to the study. The biggest economic worries were unemployment, inflation, and the rich-and-poor divide.

The study, based on a survey of 4,000 adults and conducted in March and April of this year, also looked at how India views the world.

There were few surprises when it came to Pakistan: only 13% of those surveyed said they viewed their neighbor favorably. This may change, as both sides are making efforts to improve bilateral relations. And, in India at least, public opinion seems to back this optimism: while they disliked Pakistan, most of those surveyed (70%) were in favor of improving relations.

There wasn't much love for China, either. The study found that only 23% of respondents had warm feelings toward the other Asian giant.

 

[Daredevil]

3/5 Indians dissatisfied with country's direction: Survey


As they confront a slowing economy and political gridlock, three-fifth of Indians are dissatisfied with the ways things are working in their country, a 13 percentage point decline in satisfaction since last year, a survey by a US-based research centre has said.

WASHINGTON: As they confront a slowing economy and political gridlock, three-fifth of Indians are dissatisfied with the ways things are working in their country, a 13 percentage point decline in satisfaction since last year, a survey by a US-based research centre has said.
The 13 percentage point decline in satisfaction is one of the greatest drops among the 17 nations surveyed by the Pew Research Center in both 2011 and 2012.

"Nearly six-in-ten Indians (59 per cent) say they are dissatisfied with India's direction; only 38 per cent are satisfied," the findings of the poll said.

It said Indians are increasingly gloomy about the economic future, and also worried about their children's economic prospects.

Indian satisfaction now trails that in China (82 per cent), Germany (53 per cent) and Brazil (43 per cent), but still exceeds that in the United States (29 per cent), it said.

Pew said falling satisfaction is coupled with widespread concern about the economy, especially unemployment and rising prices, which roughly eight-in-ten Indians say are very big problems.

Nearly half of Indians (49 per cent) think current economic conditions are good, but such sentiment is down seven percentage points from 2011.

Not surprisingly, Indians with relatively higher incomes are far more likely than those with low incomes to see the economy in a positive light, it said.

According to the Pew poll, the Indian public is also pessimistic about the economy's future.

Just 45 per cent of Indians think the economy will improve over the next 12 months, down from 60 per cent in 2011.

"Again, richer Indians are much more likely than poorer Indians to be optimistic. The public outlook in India is far more circumspect than that of India's emerging market rivals, Brazil (where 84 per cent foresee economic improvement) or China (83 per cent)," it said.

But such pessimism is consistent with a consensus view outside India that recent heady economic gains are now a thing of the past, it said.

In July, 2012, the International Monetary Fund forecast only 6.1 per cent growth in 2012 for India and a 6.5 per cent expansion in 2013.

Both forecasts reflect downgraded expectations just since April, 2012, Pew said.

The Indian public is still upbeat about personal finances. Nearly two-thirds (64 per cent) think their own economic situation is good.

Despite their increased economic gloom and doubts about their children's prospects, half of Indians say they are better off than they were five years ago, possibly reflecting a one-third increase in gross national income per capita over the same period, the survey results said.

 

[Daredevil]

Deepening Economic Doubts in India

The economic euphoria in India over the last few years, inspired by the country's seemingly inevitable march toward double-digit growth, has suddenly soured. Although still relatively upbeat compared with many other countries, the Indian public's confidence in their country's direction and future economic growth has declined significantly compared with just a year ago. In a world where the Americans, the Europeans and even the Chinese have reason to worry about their economies, it is the Indians who have lost the greatest faith in their economic fortunes.

Indians today are mixed in their assessment of their national economy: 49% say the economy is in good shape, while 45% describe the economy as bad. A year ago opinion was more upbeat, with a 56%-majority saying the national economy was doing well, compared with 43% who disagreed. Despite this decline, Indians remain more positive about current economic conditions than populations in most of the 17 countries surveyed in both 2011 and 2012 by the Pew Research Center's Global Attitudes Project. And Indians are more optimistic about their economy's trajectory over the next year than many of the publics surveyed in both years (for more, see "Pervasive Gloom about the World Economy," released July 12, 2012).

Nevertheless, the trend line in India conveys a more troubling story. Just 38% of Indians are satisfied with the way things are going in the country – a 13 percentage point decline since last year. This is among the largest drops in national contentment across the countries surveyed in 2011 and 2012.

Meanwhile, the proportion of Indians who think current economic conditions are good is down seven percentage points from 2011. And only 45% of Indians think their economy will improve over the next 12 months. Such optimism has declined 15 points since 2011, again the largest falloff among the 17 nations with comparable data.

A year ago, Indians' economic mood trailed that in China, bested that in Europe and the United States, and was comparable to that in Brazil. Today, Indians' evaluation of their current national economic situation trails that in China by 34 percentage points and Brazil by 16 points. And Indian optimism about the next year lags behind that in Brazil by 39 points and China by 38 points. Indian satisfaction with the direction of the country is descending toward that in Europe and the United States and hope for the future has been surpassed by that in America.

Contrary to their view of the health and future of the national economy, nearly two-in-three Indians (64%) say their personal finances are good. This level of personal contentment is higher than in 14 of the other 20 countries surveyed in 2012.

But Indians are not terribly optimistic about their children's economic prospects. About two-thirds (66%) think it will be difficult for their kids to get a better job or become wealthier than the current generation. Such pessimism is relative, however. Among the 21 nations surveyed, people in 17 countries are even more glum about their children's futures.

Not all Indians are downbeat. By a margin of 25 percentage points, higher-income Indians are more satisfied than lower-income Indians with their personal economic situation. Richer Indians are more likely than lower-income Indians, by 13 points, to say they are better off than they were five years ago. And by nine points, they are more likely to say that their children can do better financially than themselves.

These differences by income group are generally greater in India than those found in Brazil, China or Turkey, three other emerging market economies surveyed. And they exist at a time when roughly seven-in-ten (72%) Indians say the gap between the rich and the poor is a very big national problem.



Original Pew survey findings here

Deepening Economic Doubts in India | Pew Global Attitudes Project

 

[Zebra]

India Shining is a thing of a past,

That is what the UPA wants, I mean the feel no good factor (of UPA government).

Now compare feel good factor of NDA vs feel no good factor of UPA.

 

[amoy]

Comparison is inevitable,