India set to grow faster than China in 2010: World Bank

roma

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well it will be a great event and possibly the turning of the tide, possibly this will be a long wave .
 

roma

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Hey i gotta say neither did i ....but my Dad did

.

"I never thought I would see it during my lifetime but South Asia could grow faster than East Asia," he remarked.

BBC NEWS | South Asia | Can India's economy overtake China?


Hey i gotta say neither did i ....but my Dad did ; while i was expressig more likely it was unlikely to happen he always said it would . i dont know how he could see so far ahead

great news, keep it up india , well done and JAI
 

Martian

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I think there's a week-long holiday in China. I would guess that most of them are traveling.

Economic theory states that the bigger your economy, the harder it is to grow at a high rate. I'm surprised that China has managed to stay ahead of India for this long. The economic race is becoming more competitive and exciting.
 

Flint

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I think there's a week-long holiday in China. I would guess that most of them are traveling.

Economic theory states that the bigger your economy, the harder it is to grow at a high rate. I'm surprised that China has managed to stay ahead of India for this long. The economic race is becoming more competitive and exciting.
True. As China's economy grows larger, it will be harder to sustain high growth rates, although the growth in absolute terms will be much larger than India.

But it seems that China is going to grow around 2 percentage points higher than India next year, according to latest reports.
 

chingchungwingwung

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China has only another 30-40 years to complete its economic transformation before the population aging issue start to pull its dead weight. That's what happen when you go from 600 million to 1.5 billion in a span of 50 years. I would suggest India think hard about this issue and start trying to find a solution to its own population explosion issue.
 

badguy2000

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[mod] Liu , you can dig it anywhere , but not here, kindly make justification to yourself by making more sensible Post as 'Respected Member' [/mod]

I am very interested to watch what the thread starter will look like at that time....
 

amitkriit

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Being founder director of an Start-up company and keenly waiting for this tough time to go by, I must say I am eagerly waiting for 2010. Indian industrial and services output can compensate for decrease in agro output, as growth after recession means opening up of new segments, more/easier finance and a good time for small-to-medium sized industry which employs majority of skilled manpower.
 

redragon

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what India has done is amazing, given only a small fraction of the population participate the activities (outsourced IT jobs ... etc) which gave Indian economy the push. However, if India can't get more of its citizen to be involved in those activities, India will face some serious social unrests as what have been witnessed in recent years. China has the same problem as well, but because China is the factory of the world, so I would say a higher percentage of population were involved in those activities.
 

Vladimir79

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what India has done is amazing, given only a small fraction of the population participate the activities (outsourced IT jobs ... etc) which gave Indian economy the push.
Actually, it is rural consumption that is pushing economic growth.

BBC NEWS | South Asia | Rural India powering economic growth

However, if India can't get more of its citizen to be involved in those activities, India will face some serious social unrests as what have been witnessed in recent years.
That is how the Indian economy is growing, by getting people the luxuries of the city.

China has the same problem as well, but because China is the factory of the world, so I would say a higher percentage of population were involved in those activities.
Chinese domestic consumption is fueled by artificial subsidies. India's is fueled by real market forces.
 

Daredevil

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what India has done is amazing, given only a small fraction of the population participate the activities (outsourced IT jobs ... etc) which gave Indian economy the push. However, if India can't get more of its citizen to be involved in those activities, India will face some serious social unrests as what have been witnessed in recent years. China has the same problem as well, but because China is the factory of the world, so I would say a higher percentage of population were involved in those activities.
Actually, China and India has opposite problems. While India has lived with many social unrests due to poverty and lack of resources but they never threatened to disintegration of India because the people had a channel to vent their anger through democratic elections and peaceful protests against the governments. On the other hand, China is threatened by social unrest because people of China don't have a channel to vent off their anger. It is brutally suppressed and in turn the social unrest grows much more and will blow up one day when these people don't have jobs due to economic recession or some other reason.
 

amitkriit

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what India has done is amazing, given only a small fraction of the population participate the activities (outsourced IT jobs ... etc) which gave Indian economy the push. However, if India can't get more of its citizen to be involved in those activities, India will face some serious social unrests as what have been witnessed in recent years. China has the same problem as well, but because China is the factory of the world, so I would say a higher percentage of population were involved in those activities.
Contribution of Outsourced IT projects into Indian economy has been exaggerated, particularly by western countries. IT doesn't mean software alone, it also means telecommunication, network etc and a large part of produce of this tertiary sector is consumed by Indians alone.

Indian economy is driven by consumerism, and not by government funds and subsidies, government acts as facilitator, individuals/businesses drive the growth. India needs to decrease the economic gap creeping in between various verticals of society, to stop the spread of social unrest, as it is already happening (Naxal movements), but situation isn't as grim as shown, because of a simple fact: Indians are owner of their own destiny, and its evident by seeing so many self-employed people successfully running small/medium sized ventures, working hard to make money for their own, their families and for the country. Even if a social unrest ever happens it will be more like Labor and Student movements of 1970s which happened in west, which will have more positive than negative effect on the whole system.
 

Koji

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Actually, China and India has opposite problems. While India has lived with many social unrests due to poverty and lack of resources but they never threatened to disintegration of India because the people had a channel to vent their anger through democratic elections and peaceful protests against the governments. On the other hand, China is threatened by social unrest because people of China don't have a channel to vent off their anger. It is brutally suppressed and in turn the social unrest grows much more and will blow up one day when these people don't have jobs due to economic recession or some other reason.
Give me a break, Indian democracy is basically boiling down to corrupt nepotic system. Family ties is threatening to break the backbone of India's treasured jewel. Link here: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/12/world/asia/12india.html?ref=asia

Basically, what I'm saying is that the source of a stable growth rate in India is not in its political system. The answer lies in the individual entrepeneurs.
 

Daredevil

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Give me a break, Indian democracy is basically boiling down to corrupt nepotic system. Family ties is threatening to break the backbone of India's treasured jewel. Link here: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/12/world/asia/12india.html?ref=asia
It is of concern that politics has took the color of nepotism but politics is no different from other higher and middle class family professions. In India, a Doctor's/Actors/Journalist's son/daughter aspires and most likely choose the same profession as that of their parents(of course exceptions are there). So Politics is no different. That's the way the families of India do.

Even if the son/daughter gets into politics they are answerable to the voters. If they think they have not performed up to the mark, they will get a boot from the voters. Simple as that


Basically, what I'm saying is that the source of a stable growth rate in India is not in its political system. The answer lies in the individual entrepeneurs.
Where did I talk about the economy??. I talked only about social unrest in India and why they don't threaten as much it threatens China.
 

amitkriit

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Give me a break, Indian democracy is basically boiling down to corrupt nepotic system. Family ties is threatening to break the backbone of India's treasured jewel. Link here: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/12/world/asia/12india.html?ref=asia

Basically, what I'm saying is that the source of a stable growth rate in India is not in its political system. The answer lies in the individual entrepeneurs.
Its upto Indian electorate to accept/reject such candidates. Indian democracy isn't perfect, but it is functional, citizens' vote and wishes do count, even if it looks weird/illogical some time. System needs time to adjust and refine itself, and an open society provides enough opportunity for this endeaver, like it happened in JP movement, and other political movements which re-shaped Indian democracy for good.
 

redragon

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Actually, it is rural consumption that is pushing economic growth.

BBC NEWS | South Asia | Rural India powering economic growth



That is how the Indian economy is growing, by getting people the luxuries of the city.



Chinese domestic consumption is fueled by artificial subsidies. India's is fueled by real market forces.
If the rural power is the major reason for growth then it's not a stable growth, because it will all depend on Monsoon.

The Luxuries of the city??? I never seen any data to support that India is doing better than China, kindly provide some links.

The increase of Chinese domestic consumption keeps outperforming that of the whole Chinese economy in the past several years. If I remeber it right, the rate is average 15% on year to year basis. For example, China is the biggest auto market in the world now, and the trend will continue for years to come.
 

qilaotou

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If the rural power is the major reason for growth then it's not a stable growth, because it will all depend on Monsoon.

The Luxuries of the city??? I never seen any data to support that India is doing better than China, kindly provide some links.

The increase of Chinese domestic consumption keeps outperforming that of the whole Chinese economy in the past several years. If I remeber it right, the rate is average 15% on year to year basis. For example, China is the biggest auto market in the world now, and the trend will continue for years to come.
Redragon, how about GDP counting of those "self employed" or "Getihu" in China? I don't think those people pay much of tax. Are they called underground economy when talking about GDP? Do you know anything about similar economic feature in India? Thanks.
 

redragon

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Redragon, how about GDP counting of those "self employed" or "Getihu" in China? I don't think those people pay much of tax. Are they called underground economy when talking about GDP? Do you know anything about similar economic feature in India? Thanks.
Sorry to disappoint you, but I don't know the standards they are using, it could be quite different from country to country. I recommend you go to
www. ccthere.com and search for Laoguang's article, he has one to give you the details about how China and a lot other countries do the statitics.

I believe the grey area is much bigger in China than in India or USA
 

Rage

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If the rural power is the major reason for growth then it's not a stable growth, because it will all depend on Monsoon.

You've misread: the article delves into rural consumption as the primary driver behind economic growth in the last financial year owing to the global financial downturn. In the end, we know that the real engines of growth lie in the cities- which is why we are building new satellite and Tier-II cities galore:

Cities Mayors: New cities for India
IT Cities in India - India To Build 43 New IT Cities In 10 Years
List of cities in India - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


The Luxuries of the city??? I never seen any data to support that India is doing better than China, kindly provide some links.

World's luxury brands at India's doorsteps- Fashion / Cosmetics / Jewellery-Cons. Products-News By Industry-News-The Economic Times


"According to the McKinsey Global Institute, consumers earning more than Rs 1,000,000 a year will total 24 million by 2025, which will be larger than China's comparable segment. "

"India has been identified as an important source of this growth and is likely to grow at an annual rate of 28% in the next three years."


Further: Luxury Market In India set for Expansion and How?


China's most stellar years of luxuries growth (2004-09) have been around or about the 20% range.

hktdc.com - China luxury market highlighted atop financial crisis


In India, it is a cultural thing- we are attracted to everything that glitters like gold. While in China growth in China is far more equitable, India's growth rides on the back of a very wealthy and very influential 'middle class' of some 400 million people. These are the lot that are extremely sentient, brand conscious and ostentatious to the like.


The increase of Chinese domestic consumption keeps outperforming that of the whole Chinese economy in the past several years. If I remeber it right, the rate is average 15% on year to year basis.

Chinese 'consumption growth' figures have been far less than the '15% annual increase' figures falsely claimed by pseudo-economists such as yourself. The inflated figure arises because of how retail sales are calculated to include government purchases and shipments to retailers before any sales to actual consumers (could these healthy figures include, therefore, lots of unsold washing machines, fridges etc? China's government has introduced a huge subsidy scheme aimed at encouraging rural residents to buy more white goods, but is unsure of its success).


China's real consumption figures have infact been estimated to be somewhere in the 8-9% growth range.


See this blog by renowned financial economist Michael Pettis for an explanation why:

China?s retail sales growth figures are not consumption growth figures


Here also is an interesting take on China's power growth consumption and how it has not been reflected in official statistics for the same:

Again, China's Electric Consumption Does Not Support Official Growth Statistics-ChinaStakes.com


Furthermore, this is what the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace has to say about future Chinese consumption growth:

Brace for a Decade of Lower Chinese Growth - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace


You might want to take this Fund seriously, since the Carnegie Endowment, also the publisher of the world 'Foreign Policy' magazine and the International Economics Bulletin, is an International Endowment with headquarters in Moscow, Beijing, Beirut, Brussels, and Washington, D.C..


I've been unable to find the most recent per-capita consumption growth figures for India for 2008-09, but the Central Statistical Organization [India's central stat agency] estimates that per capita consumption rose by over 22 per cent in 2007-08 over the previous three years. That is an (approximate) growth of 7% annually- not too far from China's 8-9% range. Furthermore, the base year for which these figures are calculated based on average prices for 1990-2000 and not on a single year's prices, so that the effect of the reflected growth rates from the exponentially increased earnings due merely to prices of manufactured goods and farm commodities over the next decade - particularly since the 2005 period, when the economy grew between the 9-10% growth range - are not represented in the figures.


Future trends: Indian consumer spending to quadruple by 2025


For example, China is the biggest auto market in the world now, and the trend will continue for years to come.

No it won't.


India fastest growing auto market

Car industry in India ? fastest growing sector in the world

Indias Auto Car Market: A Phenomenal Growth Story - Free-Press-Release.com


Industry-specific: India is fastest growing source of cars in the UK as Chinese car sales fail to grow | AM-online news


Goldman Sachs also seems to be intent on predicting that "India will have the largest number of cars by 2050".
 

Rage

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Sorry to disappoint you, but I don't know the standards they are using, it could be quite different from country to country. I recommend you go to
www. ccthere.com and search for Laoguang's article, he has one to give you the details about how China and a lot other countries do the statitics.

I believe the grey area is much bigger in China than in India or USA

I disagree. The grey market in India is in all likelihood far more than that in China, primarily because of: a) the relative lack of effective controls; b) 'cultural' exports to a large section of South Asia: Indian films for instance are huge business in Pakistan, as are regional-language films in SriLanka and Bangladesh; c) the relative porosity of borders with neighbouring land-contiguous states; d) 'tax-havens' such as the Maldives and Mauritius, the former being a defacto Indian-protectorate state and the latter, an offshore enclave for millions of dollars in 'foreign funds' by nefarious Indian businessmen and crude politicians alike; e) the informal 'hawala' system of money transfers: which operates via a well-entrenched network of brokers, leaves behind no promissory notes and is consummated purely by the honor system; f) the very real cultural trait of Indian entrepreneurship: this is difficult to understand unless you live in India: even my local vegetable vendor who, for the longest time, has sold vegetableson a hand-cart, operates a "side-business" of two Mahindra-Trax vehicles that he rents out to people on guided tours, owns a 3-bedroom apartment in a new suburb of the city, has his son studying medicine in the U.K., and an auto rickshaw that he plies legally through one of his boys; the beggar/'sadhu' (religious hermit) who sits at the end of my lane, has a cell-phone via which he informs people how to put regular donations into his bank-account, and has a decent financial stake in the local temple trust.
 

no smoking

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Well, honestly, I hope china would be the one on the top for ever. But of course, it is impossible.

Anyway, I'm still exciting to see how india manages to takeover china on the development speed. As i have pointed out before, india is going through a complete different developing road, which has never been tried before. If india can succeeded, it would be a good news for the whole world.

Go, go, go, india
 

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