India push spurs US to knock at Myanmar doors

JAISWAL

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Globespotting : Indrani Bagchi's blog-The Times Of India
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New Delhi: When US secretary of state Hillary Clinton travels to Yangon later this week, the first such visit in 50 years, New Delhi can claim some credit for the US' change of heart.
"At least our policy to Myanmar is vindicated," said officials. Over the past couple of years, India has maintained an intensive engagement with the US on the reclusive south-east Asian nation. Since April, 2010, the MEA and US state department have begun an East Asia dialogue, where Indian diplomats have taken pains to explain to the US why engagement was better than sanctions that hit the poor.
To the extent that New Delhi has been able to convince the US, Myanmar may go down as the first success story of this dialogue. However, the decision by Myanmar's president Thein Sein in September to stand up to the Chinese by cancelling a $3.6-billion dam project in Myistone signaled more powerfully than anything else that Myanmar was ready to "balance" China.
India gave $500 milllion in credit to Myanmar in October soon after Naypyidaw's decision.
For years, India has fended off US criticism regarding its policy of engagement in Myanmar. When the US and the EU were piling on sanctions on Myanmar's regime, hoping to see it break under the pressure, Indian diplomats were expounding on the futility of the exercise. Many Indian strategists believe that Myanmar's isolation drove it into the arms of China. India's own decision to embrace the military junta was partly to offset this, partly in response to Myanmar's own desire to have options other than China. India's security concerns regarding north-east militancy have been addressed so some extent by Myanmar, which has spurred India to engage more deeply with the military regime.
When the junta decided to go in for a reconciliation programme, leading up to elections in March, 2011, India was cheering from the sidelines. In the past few years, India has intensified its own ties with Myanmar, even being one of the few countries whose diplomats were allowed access to Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi. And in December, Delhi will host a parliamentary delegation from Myanmar, led by Thura Shwe Mann, to take lessons in parliamentary democracy from India.
United States' engagement in Myanmar will be good news for India, because it balances India's fears of encirclement by China by its "string of pearls".
 

SADAKHUSH

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Globespotting : Indrani Bagchi's blog-The Times Of India
.
.

New Delhi: When US secretary of state Hillary Clinton travels to Yangon later this week, the first such visit in 50 years, New Delhi can claim some credit for the US' change of heart.
"At least our policy to Myanmar is vindicated," said officials. Over the past couple of years, India has maintained an intensive engagement with the US on the reclusive south-east Asian nation. Since April, 2010, the MEA and US state department have begun an East Asia dialogue, where Indian diplomats have taken pains to explain to the US why engagement was better than sanctions that hit the poor.
To the extent that New Delhi has been able to convince the US, Myanmar may go down as the first success story of this dialogue. However, the decision by Myanmar's president Thein Sein in September to stand up to the Chinese by cancelling a $3.6-billion dam project in Myistone signaled more powerfully than anything else that Myanmar was ready to "balance" China.
India gave $500 milllion in credit to Myanmar in October soon after Naypyidaw's decision.
For years, India has fended off US criticism regarding its policy of engagement in Myanmar. When the US and the EU were piling on sanctions on Myanmar's regime, hoping to see it break under the pressure, Indian diplomats were expounding on the futility of the exercise. Many Indian strategists believe that Myanmar's isolation drove it into the arms of China. India's own decision to embrace the military junta was partly to offset this, partly in response to Myanmar's own desire to have options other than China. India's security concerns regarding north-east militancy have been addressed so some extent by Myanmar, which has spurred India to engage more deeply with the military regime.
When the junta decided to go in for a reconciliation programme, leading up to elections in March, 2011, India was cheering from the sidelines. In the past few years, India has intensified its own ties with Myanmar, even being one of the few countries whose diplomats were allowed access to Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi. And in December, Delhi will host a parliamentary delegation from Myanmar, led by Thura Shwe Mann, to take lessons in parliamentary democracy from India.
United States' engagement in Myanmar will be good news for India, because it balances India's fears of encirclement by China by its "string of pearls".
Just as Secretary of State's visit was announced, it became very clear to me that India was the only country who helped USA to make it possible due to its policy of engagement with Myanmar. I think this will help raise the profile of India in the eyes of USA. I would not be surprised that in the near future India might score once more by bringing USA and Iran to the table to cool down the temperament.
 

Ray

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US is entering realpolitik!

The US must take care that they do not appear to be imposing her will or hectoring.

The situation requires careful handling taking into consideration the sensitivities.
 

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Clinton to weigh reforms in historic Myanmar visit

Clinton's trip to Myanmar follows a decision by U.S. President Barack Obama this month to open the door to expanded ties, saying he saw "flickers of progress" in a country until recently seen as a reclusive dictatorship firmly aligned with its powerful northern neighbor, China.

Clinton will be the first U.S. secretary of state to visit Myanmar -- also known as Burma -- since the military seized power in 1962, and diplomats are looking at her access and the tone of her reception as they assess the changes under way.

She will meet twice with pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who spent 15 of the last 21 years in detention after leading a mass popular uprising that was crushed by the army.

The visit could herald a broader rehabilitation of Myanmar, which is bordered by India, Bangladesh, China, Laos and Thailand. It may persuade Washington and other western powers to ease sanctions that have driven the country deeper into Beijing's embrace.

Clinton departed on Monday, headed first to a development conference in South Korea before flying to Myanmar's remote new capital of Naypyitaw on Wednesday where she will hold talks with President Thein Sein, Foreign Minister Wunna Maung Lwin and senior officials from parliament.

On Thursday, Clinton will travel to the main city of Yangon where she will hold the first of her meetings with Suu Kyi, according to sources in Myanmar.

Suu Kyi, a Nobel peace laureate, has endorsed Clinton's visit and plans to run in a parliamentary by-election later this year, highlighting gradual moves toward democracy.

Clinton will tour Yangon's dazzling gold-domed Shwedagon Pagoda, one of Myanmar's most revered historical sites and a frequent focus for political activists in the past.

U.S. officials say she will meet other civil society leaders and representatives of ethnic minority groups which have long battled the government. She will head home on Friday to weigh possible further steps, including easing U.S. sanctions in place since 1988 when the military waged a bloody crackdown on student-led protests.

DIPLOMATIC GAMBLE

Myanmar and U.S. officials have disclosed few details of Clinton's schedule, reflecting sensitivities over a trip which analysts say amounts to a diplomatic gamble that Myanmar's political reforms are genuine.

Clinton -- the first U.S. secretary of state to visit Myanmar since John Foster Dulles made the trip in 1955 -- could risk endorsing Myanmar's new leadership prematurely if the reforms are reversed and restrictions reimposed on Suu Kyi.

While her schedule does not include any "town hall" style meetings that have featured on other overseas trips, Clinton is expected to meet local people at various stops, giving her a chance to practice the direct personal diplomacy that has become her trademark.

For more than a week, plainclothes U.S. security personnel have been inspecting possible locations Clinton may visit, including the lakeside home of Suu Kyi in Yangon and a shelter for patients with HIV/AIDS run by supporters of her National League for Democracy party, witnesses said.

In remarks earlier this month, Clinton said Washington was ready to be a partner for Myanmar but only if its new military-backed civilian government carries through on promises to deepen political reforms.

"We'd like to see more political prisoners released. We would like to see a real political process and real elections. We'd like to see an end to the conflicts, particularly the terrible conflicts with ethnic minorities. But we think there's an opportunity and we want to test it," Clinton said.

"We're not ending sanctions. We are not making any abrupt changes. We have to do some more fact finding, and that's part of my trip," she told Fox News.

Clinton's trip caps a period of rapid change in Myanmar after the military handed power to a nominally civilian government following elections last November.

Since then, the new government has called for peace with ethnic minority groups, displayed some tolerance of criticism, suspended an unpopular Chinese-funded dam project, freed about 230 political prisoners and reached out to Suu Kyi

But political analysts say Myanmar's military remains strong behind the scenes, leading some analysts to question whether the generals are truly ready to cede power.

The president, Thein Sein, is a former junta member and parliament is packed with army-backed candidates. The military also continues to flex its muscles in some restive ethnic regions such as northern Kachin state, where sporadic fighting between the army and the Kachin Independence Army has continued since June despite progress in talks with other ethnic groups.

"Given the Burmese government's long history of authoritarian rule and systematic violations of human rights, vigilance is in order," Suzanne DiMaggio, vice president for global policy at the Asia Society, wrote in a commentary.

"But this is not the time to sit back, fold our arms, and wait for change to unfold. How Burma's transition plays out is a story that hasn't been written yet."

CHINA WATCHES FROM THE WINGS

Clinton's Myanmar visit looked certain to raise concern in China as part of an increasingly assertive U.S. stance in Asia.

Both Obama and Clinton recently made major diplomatic tours in the region, signaling both to longtime U.S. allies and to Beijing that the United States is not ready to take a back seat to China's political and economic influence.

Obama, unveiling a "pivot" in U.S. policy toward Asia as wars wind down in Iraq and Afghanistan, announced a new de facto U.S. military base in Australia and a new willingness to push back against China particularly in Southeast Asia where territorial disputes have caused tension.

Myanmar -- until recently seen as an economic and political satellite of China -- could be an important part of the puzzle.

Sino-Myanmar economic ties are booming with some $12.3 billion in Chinese investment in the country. But Myanmar's decision in September to shelve the China-backed $3.6 billion dam project has highlighted strains in the relationship that Clinton may hope to exploit.

"It reinforces Burma's new willingness to stand a little apart from China, but that should not be overdone. All in all, it's a great breath of fresh air after more than twenty years of policy stalemate," said Douglas Paal, an Asia expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
 

Tshering22

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Guess the financial bankruptcy of the USA is causing them to think more rationally compared to their haydays when they were on cloud 100. Good. At least after a terrorist attack and 2 severe recessions, at least they realized what is a real threat and what is not.
 

Drsomnath999

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well very good move ,indeed ,india should promote this as slowly & slowly we should break this string of pearls of chinese ,We have US for backing
india should DO some sakuni budhi to alienate myanmar from china & US should wooo myanmar too may be with more aid & diplomatic backing ,this would encourage myanmar to engage more constructively with WEST & good for india .
 

Ray

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US cannot be predicted.

They start of well and then they get too assertive and that spoils the icing on the cake.
 

Drsomnath999

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[B]How to create rift with myanmar & china ?[/B]
1,Slowly & steadily promote democracy in myanmar with promoting myamar in international arena & engaging US & west to invest in myanmar so the
myanmar would be less dependent on china

2. it would be good to have SUU kyi as election candidate as she has good relationship with india would be key to future realtions with india & myanmar

3. INvest more in oil & infrastructure development in myamar create a competiotion environment in which myanmar thinks it has other options apart from china

4. More engagement needs to be done in strategic poilcy with myanmar ,more training to myanmar army ,navy & airforce ,this would encourage strategic relationship & would create misunderstanding between china & myammr

5. last but the least CIA has to involved with india to have a west friendly regime in myammar that's good for india .
JAI HIND
 

Ray

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Elections and Opportunity in Myanmar

After taking office in 2009, U.S. President Barack Obama decided to use Myanmar (formerly known as Burma) as his Asian experiment in reversing Bush administration policy. As it did with Iran and Sudan, the Obama administration engaged with Myanmar's junta, although it did not push to end sanctions Congress passed in the late 1990s in response to massive human rights abuses. Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell has made two trips to Myanmar over the past year to try to spur dialogue about critical issues like the upcoming national elections, which will probably take place in late fall. They would be Myanmar's first since the 1990 polls won by the party of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, though the military never allowed that party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), to take its seats.

Engagement has delivered some results. A willingness to talk with the regime in Myanmar has signaled to the other members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) that Washington is committed to upgrading relations with Southeast Asia. The previous U.S. administration had allowed its poor relations with Myanmar to prevent it from meeting all ASEAN leaders.

And by attempting to engage with Myanmar, the White House at least demonstrates to its Asian allies that it is willing to listen to them, since many Southeast Asian nations have long advocated an engagement-oriented approach to the junta.

But just as sanctions delivered few results, engagement also seems to be delivering little, despite Campbell's good-faith efforts. The junta sent relatively low-ranking officials to meet with Campbell during his visit in May, a sign the regime is not taking the dialogue seriously. The junta also issued draconian regulations that essentially barred Suu Kyi from participating and forced the NLD into such a restricted position that it chose to boycott the poll. The junta then disbanded the party altogether.

Most worryingly, the regime appears to be pushing ahead with a reported nuclear program. The junta has in recent years built increasingly close military ties to North Korea, whose foreign minister just concluded a four-day visit to Myanmar. A report released in January by the respected Institute of Science and International Security revealed that the junta had been importing a range of items that had little civilian use in Myanmar, and could be used for nuclear or missile technology. Several months later, al-Jazeera and the Democratic Voice of Burma, working with defectors and nonproliferation experts, reported that the junta is mining uranium and amassing technology that could only be used to develop a nuclear program.

Though many U.S. officials doubt the junta has taken serious steps toward building or acquiring a nuclear weapon, the strategy makes sense, since actually building a nuclear weapon would inoculate the xenophobic junta from outside pressure. American officials who once dismissed any nuclear claims now admit there is enough suspicious evidence that other countries must press the junta far harder to reveal more about its cooperation with North Korea and about why it is purchasing and building--and seemingly hiding--dual-use nuclear technology, especially since it has signed the treaty declaring Southeast Asia to be a nuclear-free zone.

How Elections Could Matter

Despite the junta's intransigence with the United States, this year and next still promise a rare opportunity for the United States to play a larger role in Myanmar, and possibly gain some leverage over the regime.

And Myanmar has become increasingly important, as rivalry between regional powers increases. Myanmar sits in a strategically vital location in Asia and possesses some of the region's largest reserves of oil and gas. As a result, its future path is critical to the region, and to vital U.S. partners like India and Thailand.

Though the national election will undoubtedly be tightly controlled by the junta, which wants to maneuver its handpicked parties into power so that senior military officers can still wield influence from behind the scenes, some opposition politicians believe the election offers the best chance to change the direction of a country mired in political and economic stasis. As the International Crisis Group notes in a report on the run-up to the election, on the actual election day, the regime in Myanmar may very well allow voting to be relatively free and fair, as it did in 1990.

The junta has said that it will allow all parties contesting the election to have observers watching the counting. And though the NLD has chosen to boycott the election, a reasonable decision given the constraints placed upon it and Suu Kyi, the party was divided internally, with some younger members believing that, despite the restrictions, the NLD should have competed and reminded voters--and the regime--of its popular strength. Even with the NLD not competing, some NLD members have broken off and will contest the poll, as will a range of other small parties.

Together, these parties may deliver a handful of relatively independent-minded legislators. Though their freedom to act in parliament will still be constrained by the military, these legislators could build the foundation for a civilianization of the country and, down the road, a greater opening of the political system. If Myanmar moves toward a greater role for civilians in governance, it may allow a wider range of interlocutors with the United States and other regional powers. This could lift some of the veil of secrecy and xenophobia surrounding the government, perhaps even opening the way for greater U.S. influence.

Even more important, a serious humanitarian crisis now looms in Myanmar's ethnic minority regions, mostly located in the north and east of the country. These areas are patrolled by a range of ethnic minority armies, the most powerful of which, the United Wa State Army, has over twenty thousand men under arms and has supported itself by building one of the largest narcotrafficking organizations in the world. The junta wants to essentially disarm the ethnic minority militias roaming many of these areas, to make them part of a regime-controlled border guard force; until now, the junta had maintained fragile ceasefires with many of these ethnic insurgents. Not surprisingly, many insurgent groups do not want to lay down their arms, and several are boosting their arsenals, getting the cash to buy new weapons by upping drug sales.

There is now a real possibility of an outbreak of armed conflict in these regions, a conflict that would spark massive refugee flows, and, most likely, higher rates of HIV/AIDS and narcotrafficking, both of which flourish amid the instability and chaos of Myanmar's frontiers. Renewed conflict could destabilize the whole region, including parts of China, India, and Thailand--reason enough for Washington to be concerned.

Most worryingly, if such instability spreads, any nuclear components, fuel, or products built or imported by the junta could easily fall into the hands of criminal networks, insurgents, or even terrorists operating in the lawless areas of Myanmar's north and east.

Policy Options

U.S. options toward the regime in capital city Naypyidaw remain limited given the junta's isolation; the United States' distance from Myanmar; and the relative importance of other regional actors like China, India, Singapore, and Thailand. The junta does seem to crave Washington's recognition, in part to use the United States to hedge against China's influence in Myanmar. These options remain limited despite (justifiable) congressional interest in Myanmar's ongoing human rights abuses. Congress has imposed tough sanctions, yet other than isolating the junta's bank accounts in places like Singapore and Dubai, which are viable options, there is little more Congress can do to punish the regime.

Beyond these types of financial measures, the United States can use the potential crisis in Myanmar's ethnic areas to work more closely with Beijing to stabilize its border regions with Myanmar. In contrast to the Korean peninsula, Myanmar offers a real opportunity for U.S.-China cooperation, since Washington and Beijing have fewer hard security conflicts in Myanmar. And the potential dangers Myanmar poses to China are high, in the form of drugs, HIV infections, and refugees flowing across Myanmar's borders. Already, China has shown more willingness to cooperate on Myanmar, helping facilitate U.S. meetings with the junta and more publicly rebuking Naypyidaw for fomenting instability than it would ever dare do with Pyongyang.

Together, Washington and Beijing could boost humanitarian aid into the ethnic minority areas. It could be delivered either across the borders from China or Thailand, where there is already a sophisticated infrastructure for moving aid into Myanmar, or from inside Myanmar itself. Washington and Beijing could also increase outside contacts to the ethnic minority armies to monitor nontraditional security threats and help broker a renewed truce that allows for greater aid, prevents renewed conflict, and keeps Myanmar's borders stable. Finally, the United States and China could monitor Myanmar's potential nuclear program and, eventually, increase the pressure on Naypyidaw to reveal far more about its intentions, since Beijing certainly does not want the junta building a nuclear infrastructure.

Beijing's concerns could open a window for cooperation at a time when the U.S.-China relationship seems increasingly strained, particularly over Southeast Asia. Washington should be ready to seize the chance.

Elections and Opportunity in Myanmar
Though dated, this article gives some perspective of the Myanmar equation in the US political and strategic interests.
 

agentperry

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if we remain active and dynamic for next 10-15 years, myanmar and India can become chuddi buddies like India and bhutan or maldives
 

W.G.Ewald

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W.G.Ewald

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Poor lady of the Republican party has no clue of strategy.
She is a member of Congress. These are Mark Twain's quotes on The United States Congress.

Fleas can be taught nearly anything that a Congressman can.
- What Is Man?

...the smallest minds and the selfishest souls and the cowardliest hearts that God makes.
- Letter fragment, 1891

Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of Congress. But I repeat myself.
- Mark Twain, a Biography

Congressman is the trivialist distinction for a full grown man.
- Notebook #14, Nov. 1877 - July 1878

All Congresses and Parliaments have a kindly feeling for idiots, and a compassion for them, on account of personal experience and heredity.
- Mark Twain's Autobiography; also in Mark Twain in Eruption

The lightning there is peculiar; it is so convincing, that when it strikes a thing it doesn't leave enough of that thing behind for you to tell whether--Well, you'd think it was something valuable, and a Congressman had been there.
- Mark Twain's Speeches, "The Weather"

It could probably be shown by facts and figures that there is no distinctly native American criminal class except Congress.
- Pudd'nhead Wilson's New Calendar

It is the foreign element that commits our crimes. There is no native criminal class except Congress.
- More Maxims of Mark, Johnson, 1927

Whiskey is carried into committee rooms in demijohns and carried out in demagogues.
- Notebook, 1868

...I never can think of Judas Iscariot without losing my temper. To my mind Judas Iscariot was nothing but a low, mean, premature, Congressman.
- "Foster's Case," New York Tribune, 10 March 1873
 
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W.G.Ewald

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Poor lady of the Republican party has no clue of strategy.
I heard this on the radio this morning too:
And [Clinton] warned that better U.S. ties would be impossible unless Myanmar halts its illicit dealings with North Korea, which has repeatedly set alarm bells ringing across Asia with its renegade nuclear program.
 
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Virendra

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I think more than US or India, the Myanmar government is responsible for this change. China had a monopoly over them. Monopoly is not good, Myanmar got sucked out dry and felt trapped. Having to turn to the one man for everything doesn't make it better.
Good that the lessons are learnt now. Although it would be day dreaming to expect them turn a cold shoulder at China but even a neutral Myanmar is welcome across ASEAN. Good moves in tandem feel good :)

Regards,
Virendra
 

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