India must accept enviable friendship between China and Pak

bose

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Trying to block Chinese exports would piss off important business constituencies in nations around the world. Remember that exports only happen once somebody has paid the exporter; so that somebody has to take a loss when the goods don't end up in the dock, as the contracted delivery will be written off under the legal principle of force majeure. E.g. would India piss off GE, Apple, and all the other western multinationals just to bother Chinese exports in the IOR?
First:

The context of the post was to prove that China's sea routes are very vulnerable in war like situation... and there is no safe passage / route guaranteed for China's exports under such situation... mere war like situation will scare off all western & other importers from China... and China has no option for its exports but the Malacca Straits route for exports"¦

Second:

The intention was not war mongering but analysis on the possible route to China's safe exports in a war like situation"¦
 
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CCTV

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First:

The context of the post was to prove that China's sea routes are very vulnerable in war like situation... and there is no safe passage / route guaranteed for China's exports under such situation... mere war like situation will scare off all western & other importers from China... and China has no option for its exports but the Malacca Straits route for exports"¦

Second:

The intention was not war mongering but analysis on the possible route to China's safe exports in a war like situation"¦
Well, depends on war between China and who.
 

Ray

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Alright, then I use back the term "Cold Peace" I coined myself.

India will rival China? Oh fine. But as this thread is about Sino-Pakistan friendship let's move on. Never put all eggs in one basket. Hence Sino-Burma oil/gas pipelines are to complete this May. With Gwadar Port program China will have an additional gateway.



See? There're many alternatives to Malacca.

As for internal insurgencies Pakistan certainly can handle. What abt India? Isn't India still doing great despite all that in Kashmir, in NE ?
There are alternatives and f that there is no doubt.

However, the CAR nations and oil is under the Russian influence and the flow of depends on how Russia perceives the competition with China.

The sea route and the Pakistani or Myanmar or the Malacca is dependent on the US Naval activities.

The Persian Gulf is chockablock full of the US Sixth Fleet and the Malacca Strait is under US Naval surveillance.

In such a scenario, the only access is the Iranian oil and gas that will come through the Iran Pakistan pipeline and join the pipeline Gwadar - Xinjiang to China.

The other issue is that Xinjiang and Balochistan is restive!

Those who are inimical to China will try to ignite both the Balochis and the Uighurs to serve their purpose.
 

Ray

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Trying to block Chinese exports would piss off important business constituencies in nations around the world. Remember that exports only happen once somebody has paid the exporter; so that somebody has to take a loss when the goods don't end up in the dock, as the contracted delivery will be written off under the legal principle of force majeure. E.g. would India piss off GE, Apple, and all the other western multinationals just to bother Chinese exports in the IOR?
The scenario is of wartime and not during peace.
 

amoy

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First:

The context of the post was to prove that China's sea routes are very vulnerable in war like situation... and there is no safe passage / route guaranteed for China's exports under such situation... mere war like situation will scare off all western & other importers from China... and China has no option for its exports but the Malacca Straits route for exports"¦

Second:

The intention was not war mongering but analysis on the possible route to China's safe exports in a war like situation"¦
1) in the absence of westbound sea routes what's the use of all those landbridges like railways that're already in place through Russia + CAR, and that to Gwadar in the making?

2) in a wartime scenario, what is more important for sustaining the war, inbound energy or continuing outbound goods? China is already well prepared with all the overland pipelines connected to diverse sources. in contrast India is more vulnerable over reliant on the Gulf.

3) in the event of Indian adventure to cut off Chinese lifeline of course the Unbreakable Union wont be a sitting duck but will retaliate in IOR quid pro quo. PLAN doesnt even have to show up in the Indian Ocean. Beidou will guide missiles to target and blockade Indian traffick precisely.

Kudos to friendship


Sent from my 5910 using Tapatalk 2
 
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CCTV

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There are alternatives and f that there is no doubt.

However, the CAR nations and oil is under the Russian influence and the flow of depends on how Russia perceives the competition with China.

The sea route and the Pakistani or Myanmar or the Malacca is dependent on the US Naval activities.

The Persian Gulf is chockablock full of the US Sixth Fleet and the Malacca Strait is under US Naval surveillance.

In such a scenario, the only access is the Iranian oil and gas that will come through the Iran Pakistan pipeline and join the pipeline Gwadar - Xinjiang to China.

The other issue is that Xinjiang and Balochistan is restive!

Those who are inimical to China will try to ignite both the Balochis and the Uighurs to serve their purpose.
Some addition
1. China is the 4 th biggest producer of oil, and 6 th biggest producer of neutral gas.
2. SCS 's oil is enough for Chinese economy.
 

tramp

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sometime i think china should not bully with india and rather leave india to us alone..we are well capable of removing india as a potential threat to china in future.

you just need to handover some SSBN and along with slbm's and MIRV capable ballistic missiles.

china should not slow its growth by getting into a fight with a third world country.china is meant to compete with usa directly not a third world country.

meanwhile under possible next govt like imran khan,we will minimize the indian gdp to bangladesh level

this is far the best pakistan can do for china
Now that Sharif is in the saddle, you have to wait for the next government. That is if Imran survives the Pakistani Taliban guns when he gets down to do business with them in KP. ..

Its interesting Farhan, you are asking China to give you all the tools so that you can take on India. Why should China do that at all?

You can be sometimes really funny, dude.
 

Ray

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Some addition
1. China is the 4 th biggest producer of oil, and 6 th biggest producer of neutral gas.
2. SCS 's oil is enough for Chinese economy.
Country Analysis Brief Overview

China is the world's most populous country and the largest energy consumer in the world. Rapidly increasing energy demand has made China extremely influential in world energy markets.

China is the world's second-largest consumer of oil behind the United States, and the second-largest net importer of oil as of 2009.

China's largest oil fields are mature and production has peaked, leading companies to focus on developing largely untapped reserves in the western interior provinces and offshore fields.

Although natural gas use is rapidly increasing in China, the fuel comprised less than 4 percent of the country's total primary energy consumption in 2009.

China is the largest producer and consumer of coal in the world, and accounts for almost half of the world's coal consumption.

China's electricity generation continues to be dominated by fossil fuel sources, particularly coal. The Chinese government has made the expansion of natural gas-fired and renewable power plants as well as electricity transmission a priority.

The Three Gorges Dam hydroelectric facility, the largest hydroelectric project in the world, started operations in 2003 and completed construction in 2012.

China - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Coal still meets the majority of Chinese energy needsproviding about 70 percent of total energy consumption for the country in 2011.2

Currently, oil makes up only around 20 percent of the country's energy requirements. Even so, China's external search to secure an oil supply rightly dominates discussion of its energy security policieslargely because the country's growing dependence on foreign oil is seen by Beijing as an area of potential strategic vulnerability.

It is estimated that its 20.4 billion barrels of proven domestic reserves amounts to only around 1.2 percent of the world's proven total reserves.

Today, China relies on foreign imports for over 50 percent of the oil it consumes, expected to rise to 60—70 percent of total consumption by 2015, according to International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates. Outpacing overall rates of Chinese GDP growth, consumption of oil has increased by around 12 percent each year since 1980. In 2009, China overtook Japan to become the second largest importer of oil after the United States, and the increase in demand for oil over the next few years will exceed 1.1 million
barrels per day. To place this in context, such an increase in Chinese demand represents around 40 percent of the projected increase in global demand over the next few years.

The first kind of vulnerability this breeds in China is strategic, which is frequently highlighted by military planners. Around 80 percent of China's oil imports already come from the Middle East and Africa, with all but 10 percent of the oil on foreign-owned tankers headed to China passing through U.S. patrolled laneways of the Indian Ocean, into the Straits of Malacca and through the South China Sea. The fear of interdiction of China-bound oil tankers by the U.S. Navy is acute and real, with many Chinese strategists recalling Imperial Japan's vulnerability to maritime strangulation of its oil imports by the United States and allied navies in the Pacific Ocean leading up to World War II.

While this scenario is imaginable, it is only plausible in the event of a major war between the United States and China. The interdiction of China-bound oil tankers by the U.S. Navy would be otherwise unthinkable. Note that this potential vulnerability would only be erased, in China's eyes, by ending U.S.naval dominance in the Indian Ocean and South China Sea. Although it is arguable that China's sense of vulnerability is a significant driver of the ambitious expansion of the People's Liberation Army Navy's (PLAN) capabilities, U.S. control of these vital shipping lanes is better seen as an ongoing but long-term feature of a broader strategic regional landscape. Naval competition aside, Chinese energy security is defined by ensuring reliable foreign supplies of oil at stable prices.

http://csis.org/files/publication/twq12SummerLee.pdf
 

Ray

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A wold on The Chinese Politicization of Energy Security

It is trite to mention that reliable supplies of energy are essential for any economy to smoothly function. Governments in all major economies, democratic and authoritarian, view energy security as an inherent component of their national interest. Yet, defining energy securityand the gray line that differentiates it from insecurity varies from country to country. In China, the definition is much stricter than in other energy-importing countries (such as the United States and Japan) since Beijing considers not just reliable and uninterrupted but also cheap supply of energy as essential to its national and domestic political interest. Moreover, while securing cheap and reliable access to foreign oil is seen as essential for mitigating economic risk in all oil-importing. countries, securing such access is also essential for mitigating risks to the survival of the regime in China. In other words, the politicization of energy security in China occurs in a manner that does not apply to oil-importing democracies.

Conflating economic risk and risk to the regime in China stems from the fact that the modern CCP largely stakes its legitimacy on the capacity to continually deliver rapid economic growth.

A disruption of China's supply of oil could lead to twin forces of mass discontent: a stagnating economy and inflation caused by spikes in domestic energy prices.

As Premier Wen Jiabao explained to colleagues during the National People's Congress in March 2011, ensuring GDP growth of around 8 percent each year and keeping inflation below 4—5 percent is linked to social stability imperatives required for regime security.

At a minimum, such rapid growth is required to generate sufficient jobs to keep unemployment (and therefore discontent) under control; it is not lost on modern Chinese authorities that double-digit inflation was one of the major reasons behind countrywide protests in 1989 leading up to Tiananmen Square.

The link between energy security and maintaining rapid growth has deepened due to the evolving drivers of China's growth in place since the mid-1990s. In the first decade of economic reform (1979—1989), growth was largely driven by land reforms, which led to dramatic productivity increases in rural China.

It was not until the mid-1990s that mass, large-scale industrialization took place. From the late 1990s onwards, fixed-asset investment (and exports) replaced domestic consumption as the driver of economic growth. Indeed, fixed-asset investment was behind around 40 percent of Chinese growth at the turn of this century, rising to current levels of around 50—60 percent. During the global financial crisis (2008—2010), it drove over three quarters of GDP growth. At current levels, the contribution made by fixed-asset investment is the highest of any major economy in recorded history. China is literally building its way to sustaining its economic miracle. Fixed-asset investment is an immensely energy-intensive form of economic activity, especially in an economy that still uses energy extremely inefficiently compared to Western industrialized ones. Examining Chinese oil consumption over the last two decades makes this clear. From 1993—2010, oil consumption increased from about 140 million tons to about 440 million tons. China's gradual realization that access to foreign oil was becoming an issue of utmost importance must be understood alongside the evolution of the Chinese
political economy from being largely private-sector driven (prior to 1989) to state-sector driven (since the mid-1990s).

This is where the structure of China's authoritarian, state-dominated political economy tends to conflate political with commercial interests, and in doing so more intimately links energy policy, regime security, and national interest


http://csis.org/files/publication/twq12SummerLee.pdf
 

Ray

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sometime i think china should not bully with india and rather leave india to us alone..we are well capable of removing india as a potential threat to china in future.
@Farhan,

You have been trying to do so ever since Independence.

In the bargain you have been mauled and decimated.

Already many Bangladeshes are brewing in Pakistan.

Take it easy and instead try to consolidate whatever is there that is Pakistan!
 

bose

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1) in the absence of westbound sea routes what's the use of all those landbridges like railways that're already in place through Russia + CAR, and that to Gwadar in the making?
It all depends what India perceives those routes as, if India thinks it to be detrimental to India's interests it will do whatever it takes to stop them, mind it as I have mentioned earlier India has a stake in Afghanistan & CAR region too"¦ Implementing project in Baluchistan, Pakistan & Afghanistan will be very difficult proposition with multiple interests of conflict"¦

Yesterday I saw a western TV feature on China's difficulty in implementation of projects in Afghanistan and its special interest in Copper mining their"¦ China is in the verge of pulling out from the Copper mining project there just because of the bad ground situation there"¦

2) in a wartime scenario, what is more important for sustaining the war, inbound energy or continuing outbound goods? China is already well prepared with all the overland pipelines connected to diverse sources. in contrast India is more vulnerable over reliant on the Gulf.
As I said earlier that those routes will be an easy meat in a war time situation"¦ Chinese Navy is in no position to defend it interests there"¦ In first few hours of a probable war will be rendered useless"¦

In next possible confrontation in this region, India will not be alone, there are interests of USA & specially Saudi Arabia involved too"¦ USA is working closely with Saudia to have a good control over Pakistan's future activities"¦ In first step on this regard Saudia has come up with the $15 Billion aid and it will extract its pound of flesh under USA instruction"¦. The first casualty I can think of is the Iran – Pakistan – China pipeline"¦ hope I am right"¦

For your information India too is building a strategic reserve for oils and other essential goods"¦a similar port Charabar very close to Gwadar for access to CAR region specially for India's interests ...

3) in the event of Indian adventure to cut off Chinese lifeline of course the Unbreakable Union wont be a sitting duck but will retaliate in IOR quid pro quo. PLAN doesnt even have to show up in the Indian Ocean. Beidou will guide missiles to target and blockade Indian traffick precisely.

Kudos to friendship


Sent from my 5910 using Tapatalk 2
China will struggle to come out of SCS "¦ you will be bogged down by Japan & Vietnam"¦ Even you try to breakout will be your biggest blunder just like Japan's bombing of Pearl Harbor "¦ Know you strength first and then act"¦

Watchout for Nawaz Shariff in Pakistan in times to come "¦. He is under total Saudia control now"¦ and Saudia does not like Chinese too"¦

India's long range missile under the IRNSS system [in next couple of years] can also guide missile into all your ports and render them useless"¦
 
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amoy

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oh cool as if US or Saudi would take your side in case of a face-off btwn India and China. did they? will they?? pls check out how much their interests are interwoven with China not India.

and what a schiz u wanna have a trans IRAN gateway to secure your CAR interest while bragging of US doing the job for your sake?! tell who raised a great hue and cry when being instructed to stop import of Iranian crude or unable to have insurance covering tankers? who will Iran choose China + PAK or the pariah India?

with the unbreakable union Pakistan's strategic depth in Afghanistan is a sure thing.

as this thread is on Sino PAK friendship I'd encourage u to initiate threads to convince us of your friendship that'll motivate US or Saudi or anybody to come to your rescue.

Sent from my 5910 using Tapatalk 2
 

bose

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oh cool as if US or Saudi would take your side in case of a face-off btwn India and China. did they? will they?? pls check out how much their interests are interwoven with China not India.
India will fight its own war... We want American, European, Russian & Israel technologies which we are getting in large numbers... With each passing years India is gaining immensely it capability to wage a very destructive war against anyone who stands against its interests"¦

The interest of India & USA / Saudia are common in the Arabian sea... similarly the interests of India, USA, Vietnam, Japan, Philippines & Korea are also same in SCS region...don't you believe that ??...

For you information the India is building a Naval base in Karwar on the Arabian sea front considered to be biggest in the East of Suez Canal... once completed in 3-4 years of time supposed to hold 60 - 70 warships at any given point of time...

and what a schiz u wanna have a trans IRAN gateway to secure your CAR interest while bragging of US doing the job for your sake?! tell who raised a great hue and cry when being instructed to stop import of Iranian crude or unable to have insurance covering tankers? who will Iran choose China + PAK or the pariah India?
The Charabar [not sure of the spelling] port in Iran will also act as a bargaining chip for India.... just like we did for the Iran - Pakistan - India pipeline...India still is the one of the largest importer of the Iran crude oil in spite of all...

Iran has in the past and in the future too will choose India over Pakistan controlled by Saudia"¦ Learn the issues Iran have with Pakistan"¦

with the unbreakable union Pakistan's strategic depth in Afghanistan is a sure thing.

as this thread is on Sino PAK friendship I'd encourage u to initiate threads to convince us of your friendship that'll motivate US or Saudi or anybody to come to your rescue.

Sent from my 5910 using Tapatalk 2
Pakistan has ZERO strategic depth in Afghanistan, Pakistan cannot save their strategic assets [AWACS etc] in its own soil  "¦ have you forgotten what happened to their airbase attack very recently??? how all except one of their SAAB AWACS planes were destroyed"¦

I need not to convince anyone here"¦ I was only responding to your posts & feel good factor"¦
 
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roma

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FYI lady,
China is a charter member of the United Nations and one of five permanent members of the Security Council. China originally joined as Republic of China (ROC) on October 24, 1945. ROC was also a member of the League of Nations.
China and the United Nations - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

At that time, there is not a country called India in the world.
hahahaha chiang kai shek's ROC not maos's ccp and prc hahahahahahah

free- riding on chiangs humanity ! :rofl:

indeed at that time a nation called thr prc - did not even exist ! :toilet:
 
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Ray

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It maybe interesting to note that the US realises India requirement for oil and so repeatedly overlooks India's import.

This is called strategic convenience!
 

amoy

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It maybe interesting to note that the US realises India requirement for oil and so repeatedly overlooks India's import.

This is called strategic convenience!
So it's approved by US for continuing the import?

After visit of the all-weather friend Li continues his fruitful journey

China, Switzerland sign off on preliminary free trade deal - Business - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
"This free trade deal is the first between China and a continental European economy, and the first with one of the 20 leading economies of the globe," Mr Li told reporters after the two countries inked a preliminary agreement, paving the way for a final signature in Beijing in July.

 

CCTV

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hahahaha chiang kai shek's ROC not maos's ccp and prc hahahahahahah

free- riding on chiangs humanity ! :rofl:

indeed at that time a nation called thr prc - did not even exist ! :toilet:
Well, at least UN think so.

Now, tell me how your mr.n helped China in UN?
 

tramp

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I do not understand what's enviable in the relationship between Pakistan and China, when it's just a mirror image of China's relationship with North Korea. If at all, China has never come to the rescue of Pakistan when the country needed it most.. for eg Kargil or humiliating 1971 war that dismembered the country or the misadventure of 1965. If China did not help Pakistan even when it was about to lose its more populous half, what kind of all-weather friendship are you trumpeting about?

I can recall the fanfare with which Zardari went to Beijing soon after he assumed office with Pakistani media speculating on a huge financial package to haul the country out of its economic quagmire. And China promised little and delivered even less.

Pakistan is like a leech on the hide of the dragon and the relationship is a highly unequal one with little benefit for China. It must be countenancing this minor nuisance only because of the imaginary necessity of having to use the Gwadar port which in a warlike situation would in any case be rendered useless by mines and marauding Indian subs.

Chinese trade with Pakistan is minuscule compared its trade with India or Japan. In that case also there is nothing unique in the relationship.
 
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