India moves close to China in growth rate

Mad Indian

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Please explain to me how China's real GDP can be higher than its nominal GDP?

Nominal GDP is a gross domestic product that has not been adjusted for inflation, in other words, it has not been deflated to take into account the higher value of its currency.

Has China experienced deflation in the last few years? Strange? Because that would be the only case, where its real GDP exceeded its nominal.

You, my dear friend, I believe are referring to GDP PPP. :D
Are you saying that in China, Nominal GDP is lesser than Real GDP ? Because in India it is the opposite,- Nominal being ~2Tn$ while the Real GDP is about 4Tn$ +

So why is it different for China? If you provide some info here, it would be great, and I would learn something new:)
 

Rage

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Are you saying that in China, Nominal GDP is lesser than Real GDP ? Because in India it is the opposite,- Nominal being ~2Tn$ while the Real GDP is about 4Tn$ +

So why is it different for China? If you provide some info here, it would be great, and I would learn something new:)
I'm saying it can be no other way.

In fact, now that you've mentioned the $4Tn figure, I'm pretty sure you're referring to PPP GDP.

List of countries by GDP (PPP) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
 
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Mad Indian

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Rage

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Yeah . BY real GDP, I meant PPP in both my posts... Both are synonymous right?

Also, By the sources, the PPP GDP of China is 11Tn$+ and Nominal GDP is 7Tn$... Are you saying these might not be the case? If so, why...?
Nope. Real GDP ≠ PPP GDP.

Real GDP is "inflation-corrected" or "constant rupee" GDP. It reflects the value of all goods and services produced in a given year, in 'base year" prices. Suppose my "base year" was 2000, all real GDP values for 2001-12 will be calculated in terms of the value (of goods and services) in terms of the year 2000 INR, thus abstracting away from inflation. Nominal GDP, which is the measure most thrown out, is the value of goods and services in "current rupee" prices. So, to understand it simply, if my economy only produces widgets and if both the price and the production of widgets increases in 2001 as compared to 2000, I won't know how much of my nominal GDP comes from an increase in prices or an increase in production, unless I deflate for the increase in prices (inflation), which is real GDP.

PPP GDP is much more nuanced, country-specific and complex. It estimates the relative values of currencies and tries to calculate how much a standard "basket" of goods and services would cost in each country in terms of their respective currencies. Through this, it tries to measure the actual purchasing power (in terms of the basket of goods and services) of different currencies and then to arrive at an adjustment for the exchange rate between the two currencies that reflects the true purchasing power of the currencies. The concept is essentially based on the hypothetical law of one price: where if trade barriers and other transaction costs were removed, a good or a service would cost the same in all countries. PPP tries to determine what that equivalent price in terms of the other currency would be, so that if I sold the good in Uganda for Ugandan dollars for ex, I could trade those Ugandan dollars in America for exactly the same price I'd get if I'd sold the good in the US. Using that exchange rate adjustment, I then arrive at a value for the state of the economy's production in that year that reflects its true purchasing power in terms of the dollar, not just what it adds up to when I convert rupees into dollars at the prevailing exchange rate. In other words, for the sake of int'l comparison, it'd take $4.5Tn for Americans to buy all of the goods and services in India in 2011; and $11Tn for them to buy all of the goods and services in China 2011 in terms of the purchasing power of their dollar.

Now, I've simplified the above to suggest that the standard "basket" of goods and services is standard only to America, in which case America's PPP GDP = Nominal GDP. But obviously, it is not. Some goods and services may actually cost cheaper in America than elsewhere. Which is why you will see even America's PPP GDP is higher than its Nominal GDP. PPP is a good measure because it takes into account the relative costs and the inflation rates of the countries, rather than using just exchange rates which may distort the real differences in production/income.
 

Mad Indian

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Nope. Real GDP ≠ PPP GDP.

Real GDP is "inflation-corrected" or "constant rupee" GDP. It reflects the value of all goods and services produced in a given year, in 'base year" prices. Suppose my "base year" was 2000, all real GDP values for 2001-12 will be calculated in terms of the value (of goods and services) in terms of the year 2000 INR, thus abstracting away from inflation. Nominal GDP, which is the measure most thrown out, is the value of goods and services in "current rupee" prices. So, to understand it simply, if my economy only produces widgets and if both the price and the production of widgets increases in 2001 as compared to 2000, I won't know how much of my nominal GDP comes from an increase in prices or an increase in production, unless I deflate for the increase in prices (inflation), which is real GDP.

PPP GDP is much more nuanced, country-specific and complex. It estimates the relative values of currencies and tries to calculate how much a standard "basket" of goods and services would cost in each country in terms of their respective currencies. Through this, it tries to measure the actual purchasing power (in terms of the basket of goods and services) of different currencies and then to arrive at an adjustment for the exchange rate between the two currencies that reflects the true purchasing power of the currencies. The concept is essentially based on the hypothetical law of one price: where if trade barriers and other transaction costs were removed, a good or a service would cost the same in all countries. PPP tries to determine what that equivalent price in terms of the other currency would be, so that if I sold the good in Uganda for Ugandan dollars for ex, I could trade those Ugandan dollars in America for exactly the same price I'd get if I'd sold the good in the US. Using that exchange rate adjustment, I then arrive at a value for the state of the economy's production in that year that reflects its true purchasing power in terms of the dollar, not just what it adds up to when I convert rupees into dollars at the prevailing exchange rate. In other words, for the sake of int'l comparison, it'd take $4.5Tn for Americans to buy all of the goods and services in India in 2011; and $11Tn for them to buy all of the goods and services in China 2011 in terms of the purchasing power of their dollar.

Now, I've simplified the above to suggest that the standard "basket" of goods and services is standard only to America, in which case America's PPP GDP = Nominal GDP. But obviously, it is not. Some goods and services may actually cost cheaper in America than elsewhere. Which is why you will see even America's PPP GDP is higher than its Nominal GDP. PPP is a good measure because it takes into account the relative costs and the inflation rates of the countries, rather than using just exchange rates which may distort the real differences in production/income.
Thanks:thumb:
 

no smoking

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Yup all it'l take is for someone wanting to liberalise to take power. Same thing happened in USSR when Gorbachev came to power. He wanted to liberalise the market to make it more competitve. So he introduced Glasnost and Perestroika policies, but the rot had set in too deep and the USSR collapsed. Same bloody thing will happen to China
Yes, the same words have been repeat again and again since 1990 by people like you. The problem is that China is becoming with stronger.
Maybe it is time for you to check your wishful thinking in detail and find out what is the difference between China/USSR reform.
 

ice berg

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LoL.

Thank you for giving me lessons in economics. I suggest you learn what PPP actually means.

Until you have, just answer my questions.
If you know the difference you wouldnt ask the silly question in the first place. Read my post again. If you still dont get it, I will be happy to explain.
 

badguy2000

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Please give me a neutral source for that fact. A table comparing GDP's of various countries in 2012 will do.

At $7.318 trillion USD for 2011 (which is itself disputed by very reputable firms and economic intelligence agencies) 7.8% growth for 2012 would mean China's GDP is still under $8 trillion.

It would take a feat of stupendous alacrity for China's GDP to cross $10 trillion this year (a.k.a. it can't be done).
nominal GDP is affecte by 3 factors: real growth, inflation and exchange rate....

With all above 3 factors combined, China's nominal GDP is already about 8.3 trillion USD(2012) and might surpass 10 trillion USD this year.

you didn't take inflation and exchange rate into consideration.
 

cir

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nominal GDP is affecte by 3 factors: real growth, inflation and exchange rate....

With all above 3 factors combined, China's nominal GDP is already about 8.3 trillion USD(2012) and might surpass 10 trillion USD this year.

you didn't take inflation and exchange rate into consideration.
Wrong。Mainland China's 2012 GDP is 8.3 trillion US dollars using year-end exchange rate。

China's 2012 GDP that includes Hong Kong and Macau but excludes Taiwan,is well in excess of 8.65 trillion dollars。

2013 figure for Mainland China will be NORTH of 9.5 trillion dollars。

Only losers talk about their GDPs in PPP terms。:rofl:
 

cir

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nominal GDP is affecte by 3 factors: real growth, inflation and exchange rate....

With all above 3 factors combined, China's nominal GDP is already about 8.3 trillion USD(2012) and might surpass 10 trillion USD this year.

you didn't take inflation and exchange rate into consideration.
Wrong。Mainland China's 2012 GDP is 8.3 trillion US dollars using year-end exchange rate。

China's 2012 GDP that includes Hong Kong and Macau but excludes Taiwan,is well in excess of 8.65 trillion dollars。

2013 figure for Mainland China will be NORTH of 9.5 trillion dollars。

Only losers talk about their GDPs in PPP terms。:rofl:
 

ice berg

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Are you saying that in China, Nominal GDP is lesser than Real GDP ? Because in India it is the opposite,- Nominal being ~2Tn$ while the Real GDP is about 4Tn$ +

So why is it different for China? If you provide some info here, it would be great, and I would learn something new:)
It is a numbers game.

Nominal GDP = ∑ ptqt

where p refers to price, q is quantity, and t indicates the year in question (usually the current year say 2012)

Real GDP = ∑ pbqt

where b denotes the base year.


Now what do you see here?
The first you see is that the real GDP depends on what base year you are using. In other words you get different numbers of real GDP depends on you using year 2000 or 2005 as the base year. Now you see why I called this a numbers game.

That is because real GDP is only used when people want to compare GDP in one year with past years to study trends in economic growth.
By definition (since real GDP is calculated using prices of a given "base year"), real GDP has no meaning by itself unless it is compared to GDP of a different year. Now you see why it is silly to compare real GDP with norminal GDP in the SAME YEAR. That is how you discover the difference between people who really understand this and the ones who only copy and paste internet articles.


If you still want to compare those numbers in the same year, and if we assume the price is constant, then the only variable is the quantity.

In other words the size of real GDP in any given year will be dependent on the quantity of goods it produced. Now can the size of real GDP be bigger or smaller than norminal GDP? Sure it can. But does it really tells you something? A big NO.
 

Mad Indian

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Wrong。Mainland China's 2012 GDP is 8.3 trillion US dollars using year-end exchange rate。

China's 2012 GDP that includes Hong Kong and Macau but excludes Taiwan,is well in excess of 8.65 trillion dollars。

2013 figure for Mainland China will be NORTH of 9.5 trillion dollars。

Only losers talk about their GDPs in PPP terms。:rofl:
Nominal gdp measure per se is shit . PPP is a much better method of assessing a nation's economic output...
 

ice berg

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Nominal gdp measure per se is shit . PPP is a much better method of assessing a nation's economic output...
They measure different things. They are neither better nor worse than the other.
Like I said before we will have a more interesting discussion if we focus on what kind growth we want instead of purely GDP growth rate.

Let us stop comparing two different indicators to each other. Especially when India and China are in different stages of development cycle.
 

satish007

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India already overtook China's growth. It is easy to do when there is none.
Anand, we know we have money, we just do not know how much we should pay for clear air fresh water ,how much we should save for cancer. Or we should simply occupy India,africa. Mocking china is ok but even that need knowledge
 
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cinoti

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Nominal gdp measure per se is shit . PPP is a much better method of assessing a nation's economic output...
PPP is shittier, you are not doing good, the fourth quarter actually you have a negative growth.
New York Times satats on PPP:

 

t_co

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PPP is shittier, you are not doing good, the fourth quarter actually you have a negative growth.
New York Times satats on PPP:

I think that shut up the idiots like @Rage awfully quick. Bravo :lol:
 
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Rage

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If you know the difference you wouldnt ask the silly question in the first place. Read my post again. If you still dont get it, I will be happy to explain.
I'm asking you to explain to me how China's nominal GDP has now become "4 times that of India", keeping in mind an approximate 20% year-on-year appreciation of the yuan in the rupee-yuan exchange rate and the fact that the relative rates of inflation have not changed the ratio of PPP conversion factors by nearly half as much. You think that's a "silly question"? Why don't you try giving it an answer?
 

Rage

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nominal GDP is affecte by 3 factors: real growth, inflation and exchange rate....

With all above 3 factors combined, China's nominal GDP is already about 8.3 trillion USD(2012) and might surpass 10 trillion USD this year.

you didn't take inflation and exchange rate into consideration.
I know what Nominal GDP is affected by.

I'm asking you to demonstrate how China's "nominal GDP is 4 times that of India" as per your own assertion, given the disparate rates of inflation in both countries, the relative depreciation of the rupee vis-a-vis the dollar (approx. 7% YoY) and the smaller appreciation of the yuan vis-a-vis the dollar (approx. 3.2% YoY) using actual numbers and figures.
 

Rage

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PPP is shittier, you are not doing good, the fourth quarter actually you have a negative growth.
New York Times satats on PPP:


Christ! Things getting relatively more expensive does not mean a real growth rate that is "negative". The inflation rate has no bearing on the real GDP growth, in production of goods and services, which remained at 5.3% last quarter.
 

Rage

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It is a numbers game.

Nominal GDP = ∑ ptqt

where p refers to price, q is quantity, and t indicates the year in question (usually the current year say 2012)

Real GDP = ∑ pbqt

where b denotes the base year.


Now what do you see here?
The first you see is that the real GDP depends on what base year you are using. In other words you get different numbers of real GDP depends on you using year 2000 or 2005 as the base year. Now you see why I called this a numbers game.

That is because real GDP is only used when people want to compare GDP in one year with past years to study trends in economic growth.
By definition (since real GDP is calculated using prices of a given "base year"), real GDP has no meaning by itself unless it is compared to GDP of a different year. Now you see why it is silly to compare real GDP with norminal GDP in the SAME YEAR. That is how you discover the difference between people who really understand this and the ones who only copy and paste internet articles.


If you still want to compare those numbers in the same year, and if we assume the price is constant, then the only variable is the quantity.

In other words the size of real GDP in any given year will be dependent on the quantity of goods it produced. Now can the size of real GDP be bigger or smaller than norminal GDP? Sure it can. But does it really tells you something? A big NO.
Very good. This is what you learn in 1st year grad school. But that is not the way things work in practice.

China, for example, has growth rates at constant prices processed by either one of two methods: price index deflation method or volume index extrapolation method based upon convenience in each sector or industry. The single deflation gives the value added at constant prices of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing, industry, construction, information transmission, computer service, software, wholesale and retail trade, financial intermediation, real estate and leasing services; while the value index extrapolation method calculates constant prices for transport, storage, freight, power and post among others.

There are two reasons for adopting single deflation. One is in China, no product price system exists which can reflect all production results; and moreover, there is a lack of a pricing index which can reflect an intermediate situation of inputs and economic activity. On the other hand, the extrapolation method is not purely production based either, but combines both income and production approach.

In theory, the appropriate price index is the weighted mean of indeces for goods and service prices. But in fact, this ideal situation does not exist at all. For this reason, we have to combine the relative price index and complement some price info. to arrive at an industry specific deflation index in the calculation of GDP at constant prices. This is where Chinese fudging comes in.

But, even assuming your simple theoretical elaboration, what is the significance of your "numbers game" postulate in light of the fact that China's most recent base year (as revised) is 2010, thereby leaving real GDP growth rate for the series 2011-12 (retroactively) unaffected. India's real GDP numbers, in that sense, are understated because it continues to rely on FY2005-06 as the base year. Even discounting this significantly more upward revision for China, the bilateral conversion factor (which I have calculated to be) of 1.388 does not explain the allusion that "China's nominal GDP is 4 times that of India" considering the relative exchange rate appreciation and the different inflation rates.

Bear in mind also, that in the calculation of Budget deficits, as in the above figure, India's most recent base year is FY 2005-06; whereas, China's (1.1%) budget deficit is based upon a calculation with a more recent base year, 2010; and that therefore, China's budget deficit under this new series is lower than what it would have been had it been computed at the previous (and more comparable) base year 2005, since GDP would be larger in the new series for calculating national income.
 

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