India-Israel relations

[Cutting Edge 2]

Small tweet, big gesture.

 

[Hari Sud]

Arabs and Palestinians did not exercise care in diplomacy when they voted en-masse to appoint a commissioner for Kashmir at Pakistan’s behest at the recent Islamic meet. Now, the first Indian reaction is vote with Israel.

Diplomacy will argue that there is no linkage but there is reaction to every action.

 

[IndianHawk]

Arabs and Palestinians did not exercise care in diplomacy when they voted en-masse to appoint a commissioner for Kashmir at Pakistan’s behest at the recent Islamic meet. Now, the first Indian reaction is vote with Israel.

Diplomacy will argue that there is no linkage but there is reaction to every action.

Arab states are drifting apart with Qatar going on its own way and UAE's rising ambient. India must take advantage.


Sent from my C103 using Tapatalk

 

[vampyrbladez]

So guys the September 2019 Israeli elections have thrown up a hung coalition scenario. As per the latest polls :

Netanyahu’s Likud Party won 31 seats, and his Center-Right bloc a total of 54 seats. The Center-Left bloc of Blue and White leader Benny Gantz won 58 and his party won 33.

The other two polls gave the Center-Right bloc an advantage, 57-55 in Channel 12’s poll and 56-54 in Channel 11’s.

An exit poll on Channel 12 predicted 34 for Blue and White; 33 for Likud; 11 for the Joint List; eight each for Yamina, Yisrael Beytenu, Shas and UTJ; and five each for the Democratic Union and Labor-Gesher.

Channel 11’s poll gave 32 each for Blue and White and Likud, 12 for the Joint List, 10 for Yisrael Beytenu, nine for Shas, eight for UTJ, seven for Yamina and five each for the Democratic Union and Labor-Gesher.

https://www.jpost.com/Israel-Electi...winner-in-super-tight-Israeli-election-601964

As of 11:15 P.M. the tally via counting is as follows:

https://www.israelhayom.com/

Thus Avigdor Lieberman, head of Yisrael Beiteinu party has become the kingmaker for the future government coalition.

Some like the below analyst say that Netanyahu will promise the moon and woo Labor and/or Lieberman.


Likud has rallied behind Netanyahu and promised a third election if necessary.

This comes in the backdrop of corruption allegations against Netanyahu.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...uld-be-only-way-avoid-prosecution-corruption/

 

[vampyrbladez]

Contd.

Blue and White + Yisrael Beiteinu have a surplus vote sharing agreement. Thus they are in a technical block by proxy.

The Blue and White and Yisrael Beytenu parties signed a surplus vote-sharing agreement Monday, drawing instant rebuke from both left and right.

The move appeared to cement ties between Avgidor Liberman’s right-wing Yisrael Beytenu and Benny Gantz’s centrist Blue and White, which are expected to attempt to forge a unity government after elections and may try to oust Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Both factions were criticized for appearing to cross the aisle, though Liberman described the agreement as nothing more than a “technical matter.”

Joint List, the Arab party caucus have been toying with the idea of outside support to a Blue and White + Yisrael Beiteinu minority government short of the required 61 simple majority out of 120.

...sources said Odeh has also said recently that he could recommend that Gantz form the next government after not recommending any candidate after the last two elections.

Another possibility is that instead of joining a coalition, which would involve taking on collective responsibility for the government's decisions, the Joint List could reach an agreement with Blue and White on being part of a blocking majority that would prevent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from forming a government.

https://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Ayman-Odeh-Joint-List-601800

Polling shows that this move has the necessary support.

In response to the question "Do you support or oppose the Joint list entering the coalition?", 53% said they would enter a moderate-left government, 14% said they would support the Joint list joining a blocking majority and 11% say they would enter any government coalition.

A large majority (76%) supported MK Ayman Odeh's declaration that he would join a moderate-left government. 65% of those asked expressed their complete support of a Blue & White headed coalition, and 20% said they neither support nor oppose the move.

https://www.jpost.com/Israel-Electi...port-the-Joint-List-entering-coalition-599769

However this comes in the backdrop of a possible military incursion into Gaza against Hezbollah rocket attacks. This could be a major dampening factor to such an alliance.

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news...-no-choice-but-to-go-to-war-in-gaza-1.7835325

Asked if he'd recommend Gantz as PM, Joint List head
@AyOdeh
said "I haven't received a call from him yet". And then: We still have to hear his positions on: * Repealing Nationality Law * Recognizing Bedouin villages in Negev * Budgets for Arab local govts * The diplomatic arena

 

[vampyrbladez]

Labor aka Peretz is not OK with joining Netanyahu's coalition at the moment.

Israel: Labor-Gesher (Centre-left) party leader Amir Peretz vows that he will not join a Netanyahu (Likud-ECR) led government.


Lieberman demands for a national unity government.

.
@AvigdorLiberman
concludes #IsraElex19v2
by calling on Israel's President
@PresidentRuvi
invite both
@gantzbe
&
@netanyahu
to his residence this Friday, even b4 final results. And push for Unity Gov "as we are facing security & financial crisis".

 

[vampyrbladez]

Negotiations begin. Wait for final results to know the price of each horse.

'Establish a unity government to heal Israeli society'

MK Yoaz Hendel of Blue and White finds it difficult to see Netanyahu leading the next government.

Yoni Kempinski, 18/09/19 02:13




MK Yoaz Hendel (Blue and White) responded to the TV exit polls and told Arutz Sheva that the next step must be the establishment of a unity government without Binyamin Netanyahu.

"It is in Israel’s interest to have a broad unity government and I hope this will be the case. The bad thing that can happen with the true results is a government of 61 MKs that gives Netanyahu immunity. A unity government can cure Israeli society," he said.

Hendel was asked what such a coalition would look like, and replied, "I know that a broad unity government is first and foremost the big parties and also Liberman as well as others who will accept the fundamentals, but it is too soon to talk about that. We said that Kahanists and Arab nationalists would not be part of the coalition and we will stand behind our principles."

In Hendel’s estimation, Binyamin Netanyahu will not be able to form the next government. "I don't see how a person can be in court in the morning, dealing with his personal survival, and running a state in the evening."

MK Hendel also attempted to explain what his party meant in its promise to form a “secular unity government”.

"We are going to see a Zionist-national-liberal unity government whose worldview is civilian. This does not mean that it will not have religious or haredi members as we have been accused of. The spins are over and now it is possible to speak matter-of-factly."

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/269068

 

[vampyrbladez]

Yisrael Beiteinu trying to push out Netanyahu.

According to the official, Likud officials held meetings among themselves as well as with Lieberman to prepare for a scenario in which Tuesday's election would result in a tie between the right-wing and left-wing blocs. These meetings discussed possible ways of ousting Netanyahu and making another Likud MK party head and thereby responsible for assembling the next government, the official said.

https://www.israelhayom.com/2019/09...-to-have-netanyahu-replaced-as-head-of-likud/

 

[vampyrbladez]

Did Trump screw Netanyahu for spying on him?

DID TRUMP LOSE THE ELECTION FOR NETANYAHU? - ANALYSIS

Ahead of the April election, Trump delivered for Netanyahu recognition of the Golan Heights, a gesture to a consensus of Israelis that was celebrated at a Netanyahu visit to the White House.

This time, it was not Netanyahu who Trump sought to meet but Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, a courtship that caused many Israelis to question how much influence Netanyahu still has on the president of the United States.

Netanyahu also did not receive the defense pact he sought from the US, making do with only a vague promise from Trump to speak about it the next time they meet.

https://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Did-Trump-lose-the-election-for-Netanyahu-Analysis-602100

Coincidentally Bolton aka Trump's former NSA was also fired days before the election. He was a strong advocate for Israel and an Iran hawk.

Israel Fears Abrupt Trump Reversal on Iran After Bolton Fired

The Israeli prime minister has made much of his diplomatic prowess as he faces a tough re-election bid next week, playing up his close relations with U.S. President Donald Trump and his achievements on the global diplomatic stage. But Bolton’s exit delivered a blow to Israel’s policy of isolating and economically clobbering the Islamic Republic.

Israel’s big fear is that Bolton’s departure will be followed by the easing of Washington’s tough sanctions campaign in a bid to entice Iranian leaders to enter negotiations, an Israeli official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

“Trump is going to talk with the Iranians over Bibi’s head,” said Israeli political rival Yair Lapid, a leader of the Blue and White centrist bloc, in a Facebook video Tuesday. “It seems this whole legend of Netanyahu’s special ties with Trump is blowing up before our eyes.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...upt-trump-reversal-on-iran-after-bolton-fired

Could Bibi have tried to influence Trump via Kushner/Bolton to wage war on Iran for political gain? Maybe even spying on him!

Israel accused of planting mysterious spy devices near the White House

The U.S. government concluded within the past two years that Israel was most likely behind the placement of cellphone surveillance devices that were found near the White House and other sensitive locations around Washington, according to three former senior U.S. officials with knowledge of the matter.

Formally called international mobile subscriber identity-catchers or IMSI-catchers, they also can capture the contents of calls and data use.

The devices were likely intended to spy on President Donald Trump, one of the former officials said, as well as his top aides and closest associates — though it’s not clear whether the Israeli efforts were successful.

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/12/israel-white-house-spying-devices-1491351

 

[Willy3]

Why everyone assuming that bibi lost the election ?
His party got just one less seat that rival blue and white....

Likud+shas+YB+utj+yamina suppose to give Likud+ 64 seats against 61....

So is there any right wing party there which is against Bibi govt ?
@vampyrbladez

 

[vampyrbladez]

Why everyone assuming that bibi lost the election ?
His party got just one less seat that rival blue and white....

View attachment 38626
Likud+shas+YB+utj+yamina suppose to give Likud+ 64 seats against 61....

So is there any right wing party there which is against Bibi govt ?
@vampyrbladez

Yisrael Beiteinu aka Avigdor Lieberman's party is the spoilsport of the April 2019 election where Likud and their allies got 60 seats san YB. Lieberman was the former Defence Minister who got kicked out because he was drafting Haredim aka Orthodox Jews by other coalition partners.

Lieberman—who, just at the Wednesday-night deadline, refused to join Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition, prompting a second national election in four months, set for September 17th

ultra-Orthodox who seemed most beneath his contempt. Their two parties, the Mizrahi Shas and the Ashkenazi United Torah Judaism (U.T.J.), won sixteen seats in April, and their announced price for joining Netanyahu’s coalition was the rescission of a draft law—formulated by his last government, when Lieberman was the minister of defense—that required military service for a steadily increasing number of students in ultra-Orthodox schools. (The draft law’s conscription mandates were reinforced by Supreme Court rulings, in 2017, which held that exempting ultra-Orthodox youth was a violation of the implied equality required by the Basic Law of Human Dignity.) By the end of the talks, the U.T.J. leader, Moshe Gafni, said on Thursday morning, both religious parties had capitulated, asking only that, if the draft law was retained by the coalition, there would be no other demands to upset the religious status quo—reductions in funding for Orthodox schools, say. By then, however, Lieberman seemed unappeasable.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/dail...a-of-benjamin-netanyahu-and-avigdor-lieberman

 

[vampyrbladez]

Plus Netanyahu has corruption charges filed against him via Israeli deep state. Netanyahu needs to be PM to allow for legal immunity. Arab Parties with 12-13 seats will want to play Leader of Opposition and may allow minority government of Blue and White block's Gantz to form. However this is a highly dicey move and may backfire on both YB & BW due to racial, ideological and trust issues. So they effectively have 41 - 46 MKs (Member of Knesset) for starting point

Thus they want a unity government with Likud and may allow Haredim parties (Who now have possibly 17 seats thanks to their religious unity and high tech poll tracking) preferably without Netanyahu. However Likud's centre of gravity is Netanyahu and thus any move to usurp him by potential successors like Gideon Saar will massively backfire.

Netanyahu post election absorbed the Kulanu Party (4 MKs in April 2019) into Likud and thus pissed off their voters into Lieberman's arms. Election fatigue resulted in many Likud voters not showing up. This can also be in BW losing same number of seats (3) as Likud when compared to original tally. Arabs turned out in higher numbers since Joint List was reforged and got 2- 3 seats more.

Hence you have an Israeli Mexican Standoff in the coalition arena and people think Indian politics is complicated!

 

[vampyrbladez]

Now bargaining by YB has started.

Asked if he could still sit in a government with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu bearing in mind the rancor between the two, Liberman said there was “no personal issue,” and that “we don’t rule anyone out.”

https://www.jpost.com/Israel-Electi...-and-state-demands-for-entry-into-govt-602086

 

[Akula]

Yisrael Beiteinu trying to push out Netanyahu.



https://www.israelhayom.com/2019/09...-to-have-netanyahu-replaced-as-head-of-likud/

How good is Yisrael Beiteinu for India-Israel relations, as he is from left wing party?

 

[Willy3]

Bibi immediately need Amit Shah for a week

 

[Willy3]

Hard to see any combination here which can last for 5 years...even this parliament might dissolve like the april one

 

[vampyrbladez]

How good is Yisrael Beiteinu for India-Israel relations, as he is from left wing party?

YB is ironically more RW than Likud. BW is centre right by global standards. However they have 'khichdi' alliance. Likud's block is more tight knit so they have a better shot at coalition formation. Arab Joint List is simply being a nuisance to all.

 

[vampyrbladez]

All possible scenarios ....................................................

https://www.jewishpress.com/news/is...to-break-the-bibi-gantz-stalemate/2019/09/18/

 

[vampyrbladez]

At the Likud meeting, Netanyahu told the party ministers: "The campaign is not over, you are required for campaign discipline. We may have called for a third election campaign." He also promised to pass a Norwegian law to introduce those who were expelled because of the loss of the mandates. In addition, MK Mickey Zohar will be the Likud representative on the regular committee
@YoavYoavkrak

 

[vampyrbladez]

All parties coming to their aukat!

Likud ready to negotiate. Other parties urged to do the same.

Member of Knesset David Bitan (Likud) told Galei Tzahal radio Thursday morning, "Everyone will have back down [from their demands] to prevent elections for the third time.

The former coalition chairman explained that a unity government on the Blue and White Party's terms won't go. He said Likud would not agree to a Blue and White being the first party to lead the government, given the corruption charges Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu faces. He claimed, "if the Likud establishes a first government, the crumbling Blue and White will not stay together."

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/Flash.aspx/471697

Blue and White realizing that they need Netanyahu in power to even be part of government.