India Cold Start Doctrine and Pakistan's Tactical Nukes

[Hari Sud]

Pakistani PM although a seasoned politician was wrongly advised by a bunch of his advisors, who are mostly bureaucrats and including the Army to break open the lid on Pakistani nuclear developments in Washington.

The US bureaucrats really got pissed off with Pakistani bravado. They had just concluded a difficult nuclear agreement with Iran after five long years of negotiations, now they did not wish to start off again.

Pakistani PM did not get a patient hearing to what he had to complain about. Instead they extracted a promise from him to deal with LET more effectively. To cap their nuclear program was discussed but did not become a public knowledge yet. Soon US will be making rounds of Pakistan to determine the extent of nuclear bravado is true.

So this was a bad visit except eight F-16 fighter jets.

 

[Hari Sud]

Nasr missile and the response it will get

Impressive but how much is definitive, somebody else should second all what is said in the video. If it is true, then trust no more anything what Pakistan says.

 

[jackprince]

You highlight what Modi would gain. But I am concerned about what we would lose.
If India attacks Pakistan they will use nukes. We will retaliate with a heavy nuke on Karachi which will draw dozens on Pakistani missiles on us and it will go on.
If we have nukes they say they also have nukes. Their chest thumping is India has more to lose than Pakistan.
All I am asking is what solid deterrence we possess to make Pakistan think twice or even thrice before they push the N-button ?

If India attacks Pakistan MAY think of using nukes, as they actuall may be crazy enough to believe that they can get away with that, and that they can cry and hide in the lap of either USA and China. However impractical and insane it may sound, but there has to be some silly crazy guys in Pakistani leadership who might think that India could be restrained from retaliatory nuke strike by USA and China's pressure. However, if such a strike happens, all gloves will come off and Indian leadership, it not a clone of MMS, will have no option but to annihilate all strategic location inside Pakistan including all major cities and all nuclear assets which are known to Indian intelligence. So, I doubt Pakis will be able to respond in kind once India strikes. India has to annihilate Pakistan if Porkis ever press the N-button, period. The mad dog which bites once, will always bite twice given a chance, and sanity says a mad dog should be put down.

Furthermore, the porki bastards always count on people like you - too rational for one's own good or fainthearted - who always dithers on the issue of wiping off the bastard nation called Pakistan either for humanity's sake or for seeing rhe bigger picture. The SOBs like Porkis learn only the lesson of bigger stick. India should have psudo-declared policy that if any kind of nuclear weapon is ever used by Pakistan, the only answer would be total and complete destruction of all the major cities and all the infrastructure to the limit that no civilisation will ever grow in next 100 years there. That is the deterrence the Pakis can understand.

 

[DingDong]

Not once but many times after May 2014, the people in power have indicated to have adopted a "Middle Finger" approach towards the Pakistani Nuclear Blackmail.

India's Nuclear doctrine has been changed from "No First Use" to "No First Use against non-nuclear weapon states". In short, India won't allow Pakistan a chance to lob a missile in our direction.

 

[I_PLAY_BAD]

If India attacks Pakistan MAY think of using nukes, as they actuall may be crazy enough to believe that they can get away with that, and that they can cry and hide in the lap of either USA and China. However impractical and insane it may sound, but there has to be some silly crazy guys in Pakistani leadership who might think that India could be restrained from retaliatory nuke strike by USA and China's pressure. However, if such a strike happens, all gloves will come off and Indian leadership, it not a clone of MMS, will have no option but to annihilate all strategic location inside Pakistan including all major cities and all nuclear assets which are known to Indian intelligence. So, I doubt Pakis will be able to respond in kind once India strikes. India has to annihilate Pakistan if Porkis ever press the N-button, period. The mad dog which bites once, will always bite twice given a chance, and sanity says a mad dog should be put down.

Furthermore, the porki bastards always count on people like you - too rational for one's own good or fainthearted - who always dithers on the issue of wiping off the bastard nation called Pakistan either for humanity's sake or for seeing rhe bigger picture. The SOBs like Porkis learn only the lesson of bigger stick. India should have psudo-declared policy that if any kind of nuclear weapon is ever used by Pakistan, the only answer would be total and complete destruction of all the major cities and all the infrastructure to the limit that no civilisation will ever grow in next 100 years there. That is the deterrence the Pakis can understand.

Fainthearted ???
LOL.....
We are not animals like Porkis. We are humans and we must 'think' of these kind of scenarios during peace time and respective consequences.
Because at war you fire back when you get fired. This is the right time to discuss these scenarios and issues.
We have to be in a ready state to do what you briefed. Are we, is my ask ?

 

[charlie]

Will show you Pakistani perspective

 

[jackprince]

Fainthearted ???
LOL.....
We are not animals like Porkis. We are humans and we must 'think' of these kind of scenarios during peace time and respective consequences.
Because at war you fire back when you get fired. This is the right time to discuss these scenarios and issues.
We have to be in a ready state to do what you briefed. Are we, is my ask ?

We are ready or we will be shortly. Agni series is solid fueled and soon will be canisterised, which means the launch time will be short. Once Arihant is commissioned we will get 8 K4 ready to launch any minute. So, yeah, we will be ready. Also, Strategic Command will ne ready with its weapons if the war starts, and that us a no brainer.

Yes, at war you fire back when you are fired at. Actually, if you are able you fire back at overwhelming rate where you try to damage your enemy to such level that they cannot fire back. The Porkis are animals and as I have stated before, they understand only the language of stick, and our policy of overwhelming saturated nuclear strike to destory Pakistan as whole is the only deterence that can prevent them from launching Tac Nuke. India has a lot to loose in a nuke exchange, however even use of a tac nuke will damage us a great deal. Losing a brigade size column can not only cripple our momentum, it will potentially demoralise our forces if proper and devastating reply is not given in retaliation. Pakistan has to be made to understand that when India has a lot to lose, they have everything to lose if nukes come to play.

 

[bennedose]

Impressive but how much is definitive, somebody else should second all what is said in the video. If it is true, then trust no more anything what Pakistan says.

Hari Sud - my original intention was to write a detailed analysis of low yield nuke as an article for DFI. I may still do it - giving all the sources of information. But it was more fun and quicker to do a video. Most of the stuff in the video is open source and I have references.

 

[Abhishek Verma]

I suggest a full scale war , surprise attack and capture all Pak nukes in one shot before they wake up ....

 

[jackprince]

I suggest a full scale war , surprise attack and capture all Pak nukes in one shot before they wake up ....

If you are talking about full scale war how long do you think it will take our corps to move to the border that it can be a surprise attack? We can destroy their known nuke arsenal by surprise attack by using CMs or fighters, but capturing those nukes will require boots on the ground where our boys will have to attack and capture highly secured locations and get the warheads which weigh tons, away before reinforcement to guard force comes in. Even if they are supposed to blow up individual warhead, that is also hardly practical or rational thing to do given the time constraint of any such op. It simply is not feasible given the numerous conditions need to be met including getting several battellion size spec ops team inserted with their gears stealthily in the heartland of enemy who is alert, having extraction route planned and so on.

Now the surest way to deny Pakis using their nukes is to nuke the known installations or sites Paki nukes are in, but that would be counter productive, won't it?

 

[blueblood]

O yaar khuda ka khauff karo.

I am posting this for the umpteenth time. Naswar is nothing but a Porki bluff and the decision makers on both sides know it. Armoured thrusts, be it in accordance of Sundarji doctrine, CSD or post cold start doctrine will carry on just as they were supposed to.

And by going tactical they will end up getting a strategic response shoved up their every single orifice.

The Limited Military Utility of Pakistan’s Battlefield Use of Nuclear Weapons in Response to Large Scale Indian Conventional Attack

http://www.princeton.edu/sgs/faculty-staff/zia-mian/Limited-Military-Utility-of-Pakistans.pdf

 

[Abhishek Verma]

If you are talking about full scale war how long do you think it will take our corps to move to the border that it can be a surprise attack? We can destroy their known nuke arsenal by surprise attack by using CMs or fighters, but capturing those nukes will require boots on the ground where our boys will have to attack and capture highly secured locations and get the warheads which weigh tons, away before reinforcement to guard force comes in. Even if they are supposed to blow up individual warhead, that is also hardly practical or rational thing to do given the time constraint of any such op. It simply is not feasible given the numerous conditions need to be met including getting several battellion size spec ops team inserted with their gears stealthily in the heartland of enemy who is alert, having extraction route planned and so on.

Now the surest way to deny Pakis using their nukes is to nuke the known installations or sites Paki nukes are in, but that would be counter productive, won't it?

Thanks friend !! what was thinking of is A heavy attack on islamabad or Naval attack on karachi (as diversion) , followed by surprise attack on Pak nuke centers from afgan base , capture nukes and carry by transport helicopters and back to afgan base.. Paki's second or 3rd strike capability may not be a bluff (not sure with the way china is supporting them). I heard retd Army chief saying that we can capture Pak in 2-3 hrs , thats why i came to this conclusion.

 

[no smoking]

Now the surest way to deny Pakis using their nukes is to nuke the known installations or sites Paki nukes are in, but that would be counter productive, won't it?

That is mission impossible for India:
1. You don't have the satelites to cover Pakistan 24x7, so bascially you don't know where Pakistan's nuke is in this mintute, nor their position in next 5 minutes;
2. Your missile armed with nuke is not accurate enough to target Pakistan's nuke;
3. Your nuke force was not designed and trained for this kind of mission;
4. the time you need to get your nuke ready is long enough for Americans to find out, they won't stand still;

 

[jackprince]

That is mission impossible for India:
1. You don't have the satelites to cover Pakistan 24x7, so bascially you don't know where Pakistan's nuke is in this mintute, nor their position in next 5 minutes;
2. Your missile armed with nuke is not accurate enough to target Pakistan's nuke;
3. Your nuke force was not designed and trained for this kind of mission;
4. the time you need to get your nuke ready is long enough for Americans to find out, they won't stand still;

1. We have the sattelites for the job. Pakistan does not have enough depth, hence the sattelites which cover our domestic needs, can cover Pak as well. Again, we have been sending military sattelites for some time now. So, if not already, soon dedicated military satellites to cover Pakistan will soon be there. May be you don't know about ISC.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Integrated_Space_Cell

2. And how do you know? I presume you are neither a technician of DRDO involved in the development of the missiles nor a personnel at strategic command to have the knowledge. So it is just hot air. Btw, Agni series ain't developed by Pakistanis with Chinese help, hence accurate enough. The claimed accuracy figure is 25m for Agni-I, and for roasting porki missiles by a nuke warhead, how accurate do you think it needs to be?

3. What the Strategic Command's training parameters are and what training they get for what probable missions is now an open secret to Chinese forum members? Funny, I doubt even the Indian forum members with armed forces background know that. Or are you the new clairevoyent messiha dropped from heaven to save Porki souls?

4. How long a time does a canisterised missile or a silo based missile need for launch? I would guess from the word go, not more than a few minutes. So when you may think that Yanks have some superman to prevent launch, I doubt they can effect anything within those few minutes.



Now that I have proven that your post is nothing but a hot stinky gas manifesting itself into digital form in texts and appearing in this forum, I would like to point out this underlines part of my original comment : but that would be counter productive, won't it?

What did you think it means? In common inderstanding the sentence means that appeoach would not be productive from preventing a Nuke war. Whether nuke is used by us or them, the fall out will hurt to some degree. So that is a step when can assuredly prevent a nuke strike from Porkies, will not be the prefered 1st step for India if India can help it.

Learn the context before commenting.

 

[Hari Sud]

Since I initiated this topic for discussion, three points have emerged in this forum, namely:

1. Pakistanis may have lied to tell the world that they have miniaturized a nuclear device to fit into their Nasr missile.

2. Effectiveness of 0.2 kilo tone nuclear device is Limited to stop an advancing large column of tanks and armoured cars.

3. What would be Indian / US response if a nuclear device is exploded by any means over Indian troops whether in Indian territory or Pakistanj territory.

I very much doubt that Pakistani scientists have reached a level of sophistication to miniaturize a sub-kilo tone bomb. It is a propaganda and a morale booster for their own public opinion. Moreover if this device is of a limited value in a battlefield where opposing forces are not more than a thousand yards away or the civilian population is close by then it not only is a disaster in the making for themselves.

The world's policeman, the US will either prevent Pakistan from using it or use its own might to immobilize these bombs within Pakistan. It is well known that under garb of preventing the nuclear bombs falling in the terrorist hands, US have managed to place electronic locks on the bombs. In addition SEAL teams have rehearsed many times to capture these bombs and take them away. Rest of the work of destroying the factories would be left to India.

A more peculiar thing has emerged in last two years that Pakistani guided missiles are paper tigers. These rely on US and Chinese GPS system. These would be turned of to prevent them from hitting precisely, in other words these are useless. Nobody in China would like to see a nuclear holocaust in South Asia, hence would cooperate to turn their GPS off.

Please do continue this discussion, it is getting interesting.

 

[raja696]

It is not right ethically but wars need unjustifiable means some times.

loollll how come? pakis small nukes is like suicide bombers ...... only used in its own territory when our soldiers are in move at bulk. How can we justify counter nukes with our nuke strike when they have not used on our land. only answer to there strategy is that India mobilize huge numbers in smaller groups of soldiers. So pak left nuking all over its territory... which is highly unlikely but if it happens our cold strategy should aim to annihilate all nuclear inventories of pakistan out of use.

 

[sabari]

well if thats the case then 26/11 must have been done by raw to start a war?

Why should we need a war on Pakistan . Pakistan will be Chinese colany in few dacade .

 

[Nicky G]

A more peculiar thing has emerged in last two years that Pakistani guided missiles are paper tigers. These rely on US and Chinese GPS system. These would be turned of to prevent them from hitting precisely, in other words these are useless. Nobody in China would like to see a nuclear holocaust in South Asia, hence would cooperate to turn their GPS off.

This is the key point that most people miss out in these discussions - even on defense forums. This is also what makes the Paki propagandists - those few who understand these things , piss their pants when this point is raised. I have personal experience of such behavior, the response was hilarious.

A nation that has to reply on guiding systems from others does not have independent delivery systems - which is why operationalizing our own must be a key priority.

 

[Chinmoy]

This is the key point that most people miss out in these discussions - even on defense forums. This is also what makes the Paki propagandists - those few who understand these things , piss their pants when this point is raised. I have personal experience of such behavior, the response was hilarious.

A nation that has to reply on guiding systems from others does not have independent delivery systems - which is why operationalizing our own must be a key priority.

Please note that Babur and Ra'ad do use INS and TERCOM too. These may not be as effective as GPS or GLONAS, but either way, they would use it.

 

[Nicky G]

Please note that Babur and Ra'ad do use INS and TERCOM too. These may not be as effective as GPS or GLONAS, but either way, they would use it.

Sure, but there are serious limitations in pre-recorded navigation systems. For flexibility, you need GPS and the like.

Paki systems are already less accurate, without GPS, they'd be partially blind given the enemy plays smart.