India Cold Start Doctrine and Pakistan's Tactical Nukes

[Dovahkiin]

I would actually go further and say, in the event of next war India should tactically nuke its few soldiers to justify using nukes against all Pak cities. India is super big and can easily withstand nuclear bombing of few cities.

bro this is just not right at all, are you suggesting we nuke our own soldiers ? or am I getting this wrong ?

 

[Sakal Gharelu Ustad]

bro this is just not right at all, are you suggesting we nuke our own soldiers ? or am I getting this wrong ?

It is not right ethically but wars need unjustifiable means some times.

 

[blue marlin]

Keep Cold Start. If they use tactical nukes when we are waging war for a just cause (26/11-styled terrorist attack), then their tactical nukes invite a strategic nuclear second-strike. But we do have tactical missiles like Prahaar and Prithvi.

The world won't care whether it's a small tactical nuke or a big strategic one, NORAD will pick up exactly who fired the first nuke, although I suspect Pakistan will detonate the first nuke on its own soil to make it appear as if we fired the first nuke. They're capable of that savagery.

The thing about small missiles is that it's hard for satellites to track trajectories. The only thing they can detect for sure is a detonation.

norad is specifically for the detection of missiles that are near the us and canada or very high. missiles such mrbs' and small are too low and over the horizon to be detected. and if you beg to differ how can they detect cruise missiles.

i like what you said here:

I suspect Pakistan will detonate the first nuke on its own soil to make it appear as if we fired the first nuke. They're capable of that savagery.

do you think that someone/country have already used this idea of self damage and blame another?

 

[FRYCRY]

Instead of doing conventional war we should target porkistan through our proxies, target VIPs (ISI officials and army generals). It is the time of modern warfare, we need to break them internally and diplomatically isolate them so that they literally beg us to stop. Few years back we used to cry ISI is doing every 2nd thing in India and pakis used to get happy that ISI is such a powerful agency but recently it has completely changed pakis cry that RAW has fucked pakistan. Im sure RAW is not even doing all this with their full capability, Doval should give free hand to RAW, just keep on banging porkies so that the sound of bomb blasts become there daily routine.

 

[FRYCRY]

norad is specifically for the detection of missiles that are near the us and canada or very high. missiles such mrbs' and small are too low and over the horizon to be detected. and if you beg to differ how can they detect cruise missiles.

i like what you said here:

I suspect Pakistan will detonate the first nuke on its own soil to make it appear as if we fired the first nuke. They're capable of that savagery.

do you think that someone/country have already used this idea of self damage and blame another?

Yes ISI did peshawar attacks to gain sympathy and more foreign aid

 

[blue marlin]

Yes ISI did peshawar attacks to gain sympathy and more foreign aid

well if thats the case then 26/11 must have been done by raw to start a war?

 

[FRYCRY]

well if thats the case then 26/11 must have been done by raw to start a war?

RAW is behind the birth of jinnah, RAW agents also bang raheel sharif's wife

Kasab tera abbu tha?

 

[Hari Sud]

I believe this whole nuke thing is "irrespective of whether true or not" is a blackmail tactic as usual. Blackmail is being done by two parties Pakistan and US.

Pakistan as usual wants more military aid, same tactics are used by noko.

Americans are attempting to gain leverage over Indian strategic discussions, by playing the "we are trying to stop Pakistan from nuking you".

If we have any brains, we should develop overwhelming counter strategy. this paki strategy is a counter to CSD. New strategy is required which can sit on top of CSD. Some doctrine which will scorch the the paki side of battlefield even before our first strike forces set foot on the battle field. Precision guided pinaka maybe ?

So true!!!

US has played the double game with India for a long time and ultimately got away with it.

In 1993/94, President Clinton went after Prime Minister Narsimha Rao and extracted a promise not test nuclear weapons. He pretty well knew that Pakistan had already built a nuclear weapon with US, China and Korean help and had dry tested it in China. But he listened more to Pakistani version that they are doing it because India is doing it.

Again during the height of 2002 attack on Parliament situation, they played the Pakistani card and stated that their nukes are ready, although they were far from it.

During 26/11 they protected Pakistan by spreading the rumour that any Indian retaliation would result in Nuclear War. They never told that the looser would be Pakistan, instead the rumour mill projected that Pakistan has opened the gates to the underground bunker at Sargoda which houses ready to use nuclear missiles. It was a rumour only. It was designed to force India to back off. At that time Pakistan was having trouble mating the weapons with missiles. The missiles came from different source and nukes from a different source hence mating was a big problem.

An overwhelming counter strategy is the answer for such a wanton misuse of propaganda to scare the aggrieved party. US may not like it but tough luck. We have to wait for Obama to exit the Whitehouse and a Republican take over of the levers of power.

 

[Screambowl]

Use intelligence based covert ops inside Pakistan. There will no situation arise even for pressing the CSD button. Forget Nuclear War. That's how you deal with Pakistan.

 

[Screambowl]

Doval should give free hand to RAW, just keep on banging porkies so that the sound of bomb blasts become there daily routine.

it has happened,
actually they did some study where people in peshawar region and quetta fear that every big sound is an attack. They have generated phobia of loud sounds.

 

[Dark Sorrow]

Pakistani are over simplifying things.
Currently Pakistan C4ISTAR are not mature/capable enough to find, locate, target and neutralize Indian attack force effectively using tactical nukes in real time in face of sophisticated advancing enemy. Its easy to say such things during peace time sitting in AC rooms but during war due fog of war and chaos its really difficult to pull of a successful tactical nuclear strike. Till today no one has pulled such strike.
You need to first find/identify the enemy, have his exact geographical locations (not make guesses about his location in thin air). You need to find out enemy formation and make best guess of types of units deployed and their location (infantry and light skinned vehicle can take damage even if they are in blast radius however hard targets like tanks with NBC suite need detonation in proximity to destroy them). If the enemy is mobile (a very high likely case) then you need to anticipate where the enemy will be and drop the bomb their. You need to find out where to hit so that the enemy will cause much damage using the above mentioned information.
You need to do all this at the same time protect your nuclear assets from enemy who is closing in and trying to destroy them. This makes moving your nuclear assets from location to another to avoid tracking and destruction necessary which again complicates things.
Accuracy of missile is also the important. Is easy to hit a big city compared to mobile army. Missile dropping 100-500 meters from the target will have very less of desired effect and may even fail to attain objectives. Continuously movement of the missile to avoid destruction by Indian forces will even complicate things with regard to accuracy. Environmental effects like terrain, wind, etc. must also be taken in account must also be taken in picture.
Dropping a nuke using air-planes has better better accuracy but equally complicates things with Indian air-defense and IAF. Even battlefield BM doesn't guarantee 100% hit chance due to ABM capability for Indian air-defense.
Only venerability on Indian side is when their is bottleneck like on river/channel crossing or if our infantry goes mechanized mobility to foot mobility.
Then comes a question where the tactical nuke will be used. Will it be used on Indian land or Pakistani land. Some Pakistani authors have suggest quick capture of Indian territory (50-100kms) and use that territory for nuclear offense against advancing Indian forces. The extent of damage suffered by our forces and where the nuke was detonated will have a huge bearing on our response.
Pakistan also has take in account civilian causalities if they lunch attack on their side of border. Pakistan settlements are much closer to border than Indian settlements.
In general Pakistan is over simplifying and painting a rosy picture. We should/can continue with cold start with much hindrance with whatever they may throw.

For Pakistan it is equally difficult to use nuclear option as it is like a Pandora's box; once you use them you should be ready for anything that comes next and mainly because nuclear brinkmanship works till first launch.

 

[A chauhan]

well if thats the case then 26/11 must have been done by raw to start a war?

Kasab was a Pakistani and India didn't start a war ! so it was ISI+LeT.

You highlight what Modi would gain. But I am concerned about what we would lose.
If India attacks Pakistan they will use nukes. We will retaliate with a heavy nuke on Karachi which will draw dozens on Pakistani missiles on us and it will go on.
If we have nukes they say they also have nukes. Their chest thumping is India has more to lose than Pakistan.
All I am asking is what solid deterrence we possess to make Pakistan think twice or even thrice before they push the N-button ?

We'll have to respond one day; current govt have the balls it seems, govt will use diplomacy, RAW and finally force for such punitive attack, not alone the force. Pakistan will lose everything and their everything is less than what we'll lose, but unlike Pakistan, India can recover.

Further I think their tactical nukes are not more than a bluff.

However I would like to divide Pakistan into parts and sealing borders rather than nuking them.

 

[DingDong]

My stand is to not hurt innocent civilians by hitting hard on their basic needs.
But looking at the way Pakistan is blackmailing India I think we don't have a better option than disrupting their water resources.

That is the whole idea behind having Weapons of "Mass" Destruction. The purpose of having these "STRATEGIC" weapons in military store is to hit the Civil Population, Production Facilities and the Economic centres to such an extent that it cripples the supply chain and hits the morale of the political leadership. Do you think that we are going to drop our Nuclear tipped missiles in desert over Pakistani armour?

 

[Hari Sud]

Choosing Wrong Place for Nuclear Blackmail

This time the Pakistani diplomacy which has been so successful to extract $30 billion from US since 9/11, failed. They chose official Nawaz Shariff visit to US to boast about Pakistani achievements in the area of low yield tactical nuclear weapons. Nobody doubted it prior but this time they boasted about it to the wrong effect. If there was any chance to get anything even close to Indo-US nuclear deal, they killed it.

Any talk of using nuclear weapons during any circumstances is hateful to the Americans. The Pakistanis played the wrong tune in front of a wrong audience and lost it. They got nothing from this trip, except bad press and bad publicity. Instead they have to content with only 8 F-16 fighter jets........ Pity you Pakistani diplomats.

Reasons were simple, it was not Nawaz Sharrif saying anything, it is the people who were sent with him by the Pakistani army chief to keep an eye on him. They did the damage.

To get eight F-16s, Nawaz Sharrif had to promise strong action against LET and other terrorist groups who create havoc in India from time to time. He got no promise of economic aid, no promise of being helpful in the diplomacy to bring the dead issue of Kashmir or major military aid.

Who was the worst looser here, it was the Pakistani army which has been setting the foreign policy agenda. Also a strong rebuke to use nuclear weapons was the top story of the day.

Nobody knows how successful Pakistan is to miniaturize the nuclear weapons, they claim more than they succeed. US now will use all its agents in Pakistan to find out the state of art in this field. Even accidental use of these weapons by a local commander, who has lost the battle is of grave concern to US. It could trigger a nuclear holocast.

India was well aware of these developments and had tweaked it'd Cold Start Doctrine to prevent Pakistanis gaining upper hand. A fast moving attack column from India will very quickly mix with defending Pakistani column or with a major Pakistani civilian population base and prevent its use. It is theorized that Pakistani delivery system is inaccurate hence could hit their own armoured column or a major urban centre in a close quarter battle.

India does not have to use nuclear weapons as long as Pakistanis are hitting their own columns. Moreover sooner than later America will activate its network inside Pakistan to grab these weapons and save the nuclear holocaust.

Cheers! Pakistan for bad policy and propaganda.

 

[I_PLAY_BAD]

That is the whole idea behind having Weapons of "Mass" Destruction. The purpose of having these "STRATEGIC" weapons in military store is to hit the Civil Population, Production Facilities and the Economic centres to such an extent that it cripples the supply chain and hits the morale of the political leadership. Do you think that we are going to drop our Nuclear tipped missiles in desert over Pakistani armour?

The things you listed are more with us than with Pakistan.
If Pakistan has 5 production facilities then India has 30 of them.
That is one disadvantage with India having lesser desert than what Pakistan has.
Their rhetoric is they have many nukes and they will fire all of them on all of our economic centers.
What can we do when they do it ? I do not completely trust our BMD system.

 

[A chauhan]

The things you listed are more with us than with Pakistan.
If Pakistan has 5 production facilities then India has 30 of them.
That is one disadvantage with India having lesser desert than what Pakistan has.
Their rhetoric is they have many nukes and they will fire all of them on all of our economic centers.
What can we do when they do it ? I do not completely trust our BMD system.

If we manage to develop BMD which can stop Shaheen-III then no problems.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

At 5-10 Kiltons to 90 percent of pak nuke arsenal can be considered tactical nukes.

 

[Kyubi]

The things you listed are more with us than with Pakistan.
If Pakistan has 5 production facilities then India has 30 of them.
That is one disadvantage with India having lesser desert than what Pakistan has.
Their rhetoric is they have many nukes and they will fire all of them on all of our economic centers.
What can we do when they do it ? I do not completely trust our BMD system.

i would not go that far even if they did launch a single nuclear missile our Integrated Air command and control system would be able to pinpoint the intended trajectory of the missile and activate our BMD,
A recognised air situation picture or RASP would be generated with the information from 2d and 3d radars located in the western hemisphere , intended flight plan , target identification.

Also SFC would be ready with a counter strategy with our PMO to intiate a counter strike which i believe would certainly obliterate PAK's any ability to fire further NUKE's . Launching Nukes is not like MBRLS, and i doubt whether PAK has the capability to launch all the missiles at one go !!

There Chaklala base is one major military base which is very close to Rawalpindi and our western border, IT houses its SFC and any rogue response from them will be countered by our AFB's at Ambala, Ayanagar or Jodhpur which houses Sukhois

 

[LETHALFORCE]

Any use of a tactical nuke being used might be a good opportunity for India to test a neutron bomb or an EMP weapon . AtleAst India should clearly state any nuke used against India will result in Indus water treaty being thrown out.

 

[bennedose]

Nasr missile and the response it will get