India's Stakes in Afghanistan
India's Stakes in Afghanistan
October 6, 2011
Indranil Banerjie of SAPRA India Foundation on 12 May published a compilation of views of various defence and security analysts about what stakes India have in Afghanistan. This question gains relevance in the wake of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's visit to Kabul on 11-12 May 2011. Furthermore, the visit comes in the aftermath of the strained US-Pakistan relations and the death of Osama Bin Laden on 2 May in Abottabad, Pakistan. Some of the views are given below:
India's Vital Stake
India has a vital stake in Afghanistan and that explains our robust reconstruction assistance programme. Our linkages go back to antiquity. Historically, our ties have generally been very good. Indians today are the most popular foreigners in Afghanistan. There is a natural empathy between the peoples of the two countries. Moreover, it is our natural gateway to Central Asia and beyond. Should it become a breeding ground for terrorism, particularly under Pakistan's dominance that would naturally not be in our interest because of its geographical proximity to us and the possibility of export of terrorism to India. Finally, Afghan-Pak differences on the issue of the Durand Line and arising from Pakistan's desire to dominate Afghanistan make it a natural ally of India. Our non-threatening approach commends us to the Afghans and makes them look at us in a more friendly manner than Pakistan. We therefore need to preserve and build upon our relationship with Afghanistan.
Satish Chandra, former deputy National Security Advisor, New Delhi
India's Strategic Space
We have a very major stake in Afghanistan. In fact, much more than Pakistan, which has been busy destroying the cohesion of Afghan society. We have gone a long way toward achieving our aims. The building of the Zaranj-Delaram Road which has freed Afghanistan from its exclusive dependence on Pakistan was not only a major feat, but it has also allowed the Afghan government to increase its revenues because of greater access from Iran into Afghanistan at several points. For India, linked to the Chah Bahar Port, that the the Iranians are developing with Indian help, India for the first time has direct access to Central Asia for trade and energy security for a long time to come. Linkage or access to Central Asia is something that the Pakistanis and Chinese have been denying to India. We have rebuilt institutions in Afghanistan. India is the most respected country in Afghanistan as of now. Under these circumstances, regardless of what the US, Pakistan or other interested parties feel, India has to carve out its own 'strategic space', due to its own efforts not merely waiting for hand outs from the US. If you do nothing, you will get nothing. India has several options that it can and must exercise.
Maj. Gen. (retd.) Vinod Saighal, author and security analyst
Short & Long Term Goals
We have a stake in Afghanistan, for two major reasons: 1. Long-term: If and when relations become semi-normal between Afghanistan, Pakistan and India, probably not in our life-times, the trade connectivity will help revert the entire region to stability – maintaining of good relations helps. 2. Short-term: For exactly the same reason that worries Pakistan – good relations with any Afghan regime can allow us to maintain a military pressure on Pakistan from their west, which will prevent their removing both the two Army Corps worth of troops from their western border in case of any Indo-Pak hostilities. This military pressure has to be from the Afghan Army and any future re-created Afghan Air Force. I believe we should give them back their own Kashmir strategy – support the Pashtunistan issue and the 'azadi' of Balochistan from Pakistan. Pashtunistan needs to be played not as 'azadi' but as merger with Afghanistan.
Gautam Das (Retd.), writer on strategic and military matters, New Delhi
Afghan Stability
Instability in Afghanistan benefits the Pakistani military-security institutions, in terms of leverage and control in domestic and international affairs. Stability in Afghanistan benefits Indian foreign policy, domestic politics, and economic development. An unstable Afghanistan that spawns and shelters terrorists will mean more expenditure on the internal security establishment in Pakistan and India, which decreases funding for pressing developmental projects. Ceding control over Afghanistan to Pakistan is no solution, if recent history provides us with lessons. The Pakistanis will use Islamic fundamentalists to balance both Iran and India; and Islamic fundamentalists will use Pakistani resources to spread all over Central Asia and South Asia.
Vasabjit Banerjee, Political Risk Analyst and Doctoral Candidate at Indiana University, Bloomington.
Pashtuns at Stake
We seem to forget that the vital stake we have in Afghanistan are the Afghan people. The economic and social contribution we are making in Afghanistan will yield dividends if it were to also involve the Pashtuns and not just the Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras. Yes, a price may have to be paid in blood once in a while but that can be minimised if we open channels of communication with various Pashtun tribes. I think it is short sighted on our part to label all the Pashtuns as being Taliban. The Pashtuns are as fragmented as our polity and society on every issue including the future role of the Taliban. A united Afghanistan is in our interests if we are indeed serious about the TAPI and the pious statements we make about reaching out to Central Asia and its natural resources. The proxies of Pakistan will do everything they can to prevent India from expanding its influence in Afghanistan, but that does not mean we turn around and bolt. To be a 'global power', 'will power' is essential to stay the course in a tough neighbourhood.
Raviprasad Narayanan, Assistant Research Fellow, Institute of International Relations, National Chengchi University, Taipei, Taiwan
Expanding Indian Goodwill
India has a lot good will in Afghanistan but this does not call for active engagement except through development cooperation. Military engagement in alliance with the ISAF or Western allies would be a death trap for India, which I am sure, foreign policy mandarins at MEA are well aware off. India can engage with Afghanistan by re-building its army, providing training for Afghan policemen, sharing its experiences in dealing with insurgency, but nothing more than that. India could help Afghanistan in redeveloping its power and energy sectors which will increase access of India to Central Asian Republics (CAR) countries. Another area of engagement with Afghanistan could be with its diverse groups within the civil society, for instance, political parties, NGOs, educational and research institutions, media groups etc.
Rahul Mukand, South Asian Affairs political analyst, New Delhi
The China Factor
Afghanistan is important to India from long-term strategic interests. Afghanistan for us is a gateway to Central Asia. Our presence in Afghanistan is necessary to keep a diplomatic physical presence close to Iran and importantly to gather intelligence. Afghanistan is a conduit for transfer of gas and oil from Iran and Central Asia. China & Taliban also loom large. China's influence in Afghanistan is steadily increasing. Since 2002, China has pledged nearly $1 billion in aid to Afghanistan (though it disbursed only a fraction of it). In 2008, a state-owned Chinese firm provided the largest single foreign direct investment in Afghanistan, dropping $3.5 billion to develop the Aynak copper field in Logar province. And despite the continuing security concerns and infrastructure challenges that have hampered progress at Aynak-the ambitious proposal also called for the construction of a freight railway, a power plant, housing, a mosque, and a hospital. Beijing has started shaping Kabul's post-2011 regional alignments. China is now expanding its engagement in Afghanistan into the realm of security and possibly be persuaded to deploy PLA forces to Afghanistan. The problem with India is that Obama administration appears eager to promote greater Chinese involvement in Afghanistan on all fronts. China is a growing influence all over South Asia, which is where the importance of the long-term U.S.-Afghanistan strategic partnership arises. It is no secret that China's close ties with Pakistan and its continuing efforts to improve relations with Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka are a means of hemming in India, its regional rival.
Maj. Gen. (Retd.) Sudhir Jatar, strategic analyst, Pune
Regional Co-operation
India has surely an interest in a peaceful Afghanistan. It has suffered from Taliban and the Al Qaeda in Kashmir and elsewhere in India. Second, a peaceful, orderly Afghanistan would open the way to economic integration of the whole area, including central Asia, Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan and India. All kinds of exchanges in gas/oil from Central Asia to South Asia, industrial goods from South Asia to central Asia, services, MNC role, transit advantages for Afghanistan could follow. It may also lead to better cooperation between India and Pakistan. To sum up there would be plenty of win-win opportunities.
Gilbert Etienne, Prof. Emeritus, Institute of International and Development Studies , Geneva, Switzerland
Multiple Stakes
We do have a vital stake in Afghanistan because of several factors. Firstly, we have had very good relations with them over centuries, for which reason we do have a big aid programme. Secondly, it does matter to us if the region becomes unstable due to fundamentalists gaining ground, as is happening in Pakistan. And Afghanistan too is infested with it, but under control due to the western army there. Thirdly, the gas pipelines coming from Turkmenistan as well as from Iran, though both pass through Pakistan also. With the same logic and more strongly, we do have a vital stake in Pakistan. We not only share a long border with them but also that instability there can spill over to India.
Pradeep Mehta, Director CUTS, Jaipur
Prevent Great Games
Unstable Afghanistan will keep the region destabilised and will remain a staging ground for `great games`. Besides our traditional links, we have a great stake in the stability of a large Muslim neighbouring country. An unstable Afghanistan will mean the dominance of radical groups or criminal warlords in the country which will have serious impact on our security vis-a-vis terrorism, drug trafficking and transnational crime. Unstable Afghanistan will have a dominoes effect on Pakistan and other countries around it. The impact of such turn of events on India could be a nightmare in terms of radicalisation and consequent spread of extremism and terrorism as a result. An unstable Afghanistan will also invite all kinds of external players into the region, a scenario which would undermine our own strategic interests and security. A Taliban domination or presence in Afghanistan for the above reasons are against our interests at all costs.
Wilson John, Senior Fellow Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi
Strategic Partnership
For India, Afghanistan is undoubtedly a very important partner in the region to project its power status and to secure its entry into energy rich and untapped markets of Central Asia. The latest visit by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to Kabul on 11-12 May 2011 further reiterates India's commitment to building long term partnership with Afghanistan. In the joint declaration made on 12 May, Singh announced the implementation of a 'Strategic Partnership' between India and Afghanistan to discuss and cooperate on issues of mutual concern and to closely coordinate at the UN and other international and regional summits. A stable Afghanistan is always in the interests of India. India needs to show the Afghan political leadership and people that it is not only a responsible power but also a regional stake holder in the future of this country and the region. It does not mean that India needs to align her foreign policy in line with the US or Western interests, but it should be something which is in the mutual interests of these two great nations. The popularity of Indian cinema among the Afghans should be efficiently used in order to project India's 'Soft Power'. Pakistan's support for Afghan Taliban and various other terror groups (who are all anti-India), makes it even more significant for Indian officials to be committed in their relations with Afghanistan. It is not in India's strategic and economic interests to see an Afghanistan ruled by a pro-Pakistani regime. Furthermore, the increasing Chinese presence and investments in Pakistan underscore the need for India to have a clearly defined and long term vision in its relations with Afghanistan. India cannot afford to make the mistake of giving a wrong signal to Afghanistan that there is a lack of interest towards it. Such a move could jeopardise our long standing friendship with the Afghans and will definitely be a set back to India's ability to convince the international community about itself as a responsible and important player in regional and international issues.
Chacko Philip, Intercultural Managment consultant, New Delhi
Low Stakes, High Popularity
It is true that India does not have a boundary with Afghanistan and therefore, the stakes are not as high as they could have been if the two countries were joined. But India's problem stems from Pakistan's attempt to change the historic role that Afghanistan has played. It has been a buffer and today, Pakistan feels that if does not have control over Afghanistan it can be hemmed in by both sides from the Afghans and the Indians on the eastern border. India's problem vis-a-vis Afghanistan came only after it was under the control of the Taliban in the mid-1990s. Before that for a long time it had been on the boil but did not really affect India. The Taliban's presence in Afghanistan and the Pakistani control over it and the way the country was used for not only training Kashmiri and other terrorist outfits against India but the Kandahar hijacking incident only confirmed India's worse fears. This was one of the main reasons why it had joined with Iran and Russia to prop up the Northern Alliance–the only pocket of resistance against the Taliban. Post 9/11 and after the ouster of Taliban from Kabul India had been working with the Afghan government closely, especially with the Panjshiris in the establishment, including with Hamid Karzai. But despite having made an investment worth over a billion dollars, I would agree India's stakes are not as high in Afghanistan as they are for say Pakistan or Iran. India has been working on small projects and on areas that directly benefit Afghan people. This I have seen when I visited there last year. Several polls conducted by independent agencies shows India being on top of the popularity list in Afghanistan. Even with a change after the withdrawal of most of the US and NATO troops from there, I think India will continue to enjoy a lot of popularity. Moreover, it would be difficult for any country, particularly Pakistan to recreate a situation with a regime like Taliban being in total control in the near future.
Pranay Sharma, Deputy Foreign Editor, Outlook, New Delhi
End game in Afghanistan
It is an end game for now in Afghanistan. The reality is that the US has lost the war against the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan has emerged backing the winner. The Indian role in it will dwindle along with the US withdrawal. When the US forces withdraw from Afghanistan by 2014, it will essentially go back to where it was prior to the US attack after 9/11 when also Indian presence was minimal. The window of opportunity that India has had since then will end, with Pakistan establishing firm influence over Afghanistan. This will be no great loss for India, merely a status quo ante. India can and will continue with its trade and investment initiatives in Central Asia. Consider the state of Pakistan, it can do good neither to itself nor Afghanistan. US withdrawal will only give the Pakistani Army and ISI one more territory to fiddle around in. They will preside over an impoverished and volatile Af-Pak. Let them.
India's Stakes in Afghanistan : Strategic Briefings
