If Pakistan Splinters - Bharat Verma

[bennedose]

You must be daft if you think that China would not close the entire Pakistani border in the aftermath of a Pakistani collapse. In addition, the PLA would have no compunctions about using drones, snipers, and heliborne RRFs to set up a shoot-on-sight policy for sensitive areas of the border.

My mental state is irrelevant. Do you believe Pakistan will collapse? Didn't you say that Pakistan was not about to collapse? Maybe you didn't say that, but if Pakistan is fine, the border with Xinjiang will remain open and all will be well between China and Pakistan. Roads and railways will be built for free trade. Indian will gnash their teeth and be frustrated.

So there is no problem is there? I am waiting eagerly for all those roads and railways to be inaugurated so there is free exchange between Pakistan and Xinjiang.

 

[t_co]

My mental state is irrelevant. Do you believe Pakistan will collapse? Didn't you say that Pakistan was not about to collapse? Maybe you didn't say that, but if Pakistan is fine, the border with Xinjiang will remain open and all will be well between China and Pakistan. Roads and railways will be built for free trade. Indian will gnash their teeth and be frustrated.

So there is no problem is there? I am waiting eagerly for all those roads and railways to be inaugurated so there is free exchange between Pakistan and Xinjiang.

I said that if Pakistan collapses, then the PLA would close the border. I made no views about whether Pakistan would collapse.

And what about my original argument regarding how India could respond to a terrorist nuclear attack without a Pakistani state to retaliate against?

 

[bennedose]

Then what will India do if Pakistan disintegrates and a Nasr warhead then goes off in Delhi?

There is no such separate entity as a "terrorist nuclear attack" and a nuclear attack. Any attack that is deemed to have come from Pakistan will get a nuclear response on Pakistan. No differentiation between terrorists and others. All wil be treated like terrorists.

Effects of a 50 kiloton Nuclear Bomb on Rawalpindi
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B3JNY4IY8u2ba0lET2ZVWU9MQjA/edit?usp=sharing

 

[Ray]

I am waiting eagerly for all those roads and railways to be inaugurated so there is free exchange between Pakistan and Xinjiang.

And the fun and game begin?

 

[bennedose]

I said that if Pakistan collapses, then the PLA would close the border. I made no views about whether Pakistan would collapse.

That is an action to be expected by any sensible nation.

Right now Pakistan is not collapsed (yet). China still has the choice of keeping an open border and then getting its oil supplies via Gwadar at some future date (before Gulf oil dries up I guess).

My guess is that China will not be able to do this. Pakistan is too unstable and closing of the border is a more likely action from China than an open border. Pakistan is a liability and China realizes this. However China sees Pakistan as an ally and the army as a particular friend. Hence China agrees to the pretence that the JF-17 is a "jointly developed aircraft" and that the two countries are all weather allies. In actual fact a splintered Pakistan will cause a great deal of anger in Pakistan against China that has not been giving the sort of aid Pakistan needs to defeat India. Closing the border will lead to even more anger of the type that Pakistanis are now showing towards the US because the US has not fought and defeated India as was hoped.

Pakistan is a policy failure for China and its break up scares a lot of people. I am suggesting that its break up would be less scary for India and more scary for others. Pakistan is already broken up in my view - but held together by artificial glue - a Pakistan army funded by the USA and China

 

[bennedose]

Just one point about the possibility of a "terrorist" nuclear strike.

Pakis are not stupid. They are clever enough to set off a nuke somewhere in Pakistan AND another nuke in India and claim that it was a terrorist nuke and that they were not responsible. This scenario is so well known to Indian planners that the response will be one and the same - that of massive retaliation. No doubt about that. In fact even better if India's leadership is knocked out. If that happens some army officer somewhere will open an envelope, read the instructions for retaliation and follow his orders to the letter

 

[datguy79]

Then what will India do if Pakistan disintegrates and a Nasr warhead then goes off in Delhi?

A NASR will not reach anywhere close to Delhi.

If Pakistan disintegrates politically, the military will similarly disintegrate between Pashtuns, Punjabis and Sindhis. Now you have three groups of people who are more interested in securing their own territory and less concerned with India.

Militarily, it is no secret that most of the Pakistani military's assets are based in a comparatively (relative to India) tiny strip of land i.e. Pakistani Punjab. A salvo of cruise missiles and airstrikes which will take out most of their non-mobile assets and push them out of Punjab will be the death kneel of the Paksitani army. India can just move back after destroying the terrorist camps and reseal the border. No need to conduct COIN operations.

 

[bennedose]

Militarily, it is no secret that most of the Pakistani military's assets are based in a comparatively (relative to India) tiny strip of land i.e. Pakistani Punjab. A salvo of cruise missiles and airstrikes which will take out most of their non-mobile assets and push them out of Punjab will be the death kneel of the Paksitani army. India can just move back after destroying the terrorist camps and reseal the border. No need to conduct COIN operations.

Too true. And this whole business of making creating the Taliban and making Afghanistan a client state was all about changing this lack of depth and acquiring "strategic depth"

 

[bennedose]

When the US started supplying weapons to Pakistan in 1954, it was stated that those weapons would be used against "their common enemy" the communists of the USSR. After the US-China detente of 1971, China supplied nuclear weapons designs, nuclear weapon grade material and other systems to Pakistan to work against "their common enemy" India.

Now for those who assume that all Pakistani nukes are destined to be used against India here is some news:
BBC News - Saudi nuclear weapons 'on order' from Pakistan

Saudi nuclear weapons 'on order' from Pakistan
Earlier this year, a senior Nato decision maker told me that he had seen intelligence reporting that nuclear weapons made in Pakistan on behalf of Saudi Arabia are now sitting ready for delivery.

Last month Amos Yadlin, a former head of Israeli military intelligence, told a conference in Sweden that if Iran got the bomb, "the Saudis will not wait one month. They already paid for the bomb, they will go to Pakistan and bring what they need to bring."

Now what if Uighurs need nuclear weapons? Some kind country with money can give them the money they need to buy a few weapons. The soon-to-be-constructed Karakoram highway and railway, carrying oil to the urbanized east of China from Pakistan will be the preferred route. Money can be transferred to Pakistan via hawala.

If Pakistan splinters, everything will become cheaper and easier.

 

[Decklander]

Why would India need to give Pakistani nukes to militant Tibetan exiles, when India has nukes of its own?

every nuke and plutonium/uranium enriched has a distinctive trace by which you can make out where it was fabricated. If we give our nuke, it will become known to the world so if we give a pak nuke to Tibbetans, it will be traced as a pakistan nuke whose explosives were manufactured in China

 

[Simple_Guy]

The Pakistan government has decided to ban three alleged Islamic militant outfits on China's demand, the BBC reported on Wednesday.

These outfits include East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and Islamic Jihad Union (IJU).

The Chinese authorities had apprised Pakistan of the activities of these groups while the matter had been discussed at the top level meetings of both the countries' military leadership.

Paki China friendship is sweeter than honey, saltier than pork.

 

[drkrn]

I said that if Pakistan collapses, then the PLA would close the border. I made no views about whether Pakistan would collapse.

And what about my original argument regarding how India could respond to a terrorist nuclear attack without a Pakistani state to retaliate against?

first by commenting about pakistani disintegration you say china is prepared for the worst.even china is deeply aware of the possibility

a terrorist nuclear attack is hypothetical,but in case it happens there will be no pakistan.and if you say that what if an attack happens after disintegration of pakistan i have no answer.

my thanks to you,you have opened a new corridor which needs to be surveyed

 

[drkrn]

every nuke and plutonium/uranium enriched has a distinctive trace by which you can make out where it was fabricated. If we give our nuke, it will become known to the world so if we give a pak nuke to Tibbetans, it will be traced as a pakistan nuke whose explosives were manufactured in China

never heard that.can you detail it more

 

[t_co]

first by commenting about pakistani disintegration you say china is prepared for the worst.even china is deeply aware of the possibility

Yep. China has prepped unified operating scenarios (coordinated action plans between the military, Foreign Ministry, state security, and overseas Chinese businesses) for events such as

1) Sudden regime change in a neighboring state (Pak, NK, Central Asia, Vietnam, Burma, Mongolia, Laos etc)
2) Thai-Cambodian War
3) Afghanistan security emergency
etc.

Most of these action plans involve ID'ing critical Chinese interests via overseas businessmen and state security, sealing the border with conventional forces, coordinating with the host governments (or de facto authorities) to guarantee the security of said Chinese interests, playing a double game between the sides with economic/political 'active measures' (cyber support, arms shipments, money to finance a civil war, etc) if said government or authority does not cooperate, and inserting drones and special ops if the situation continues to deteriorate. The target timeline in all these action plans is to guarantee the safety of said Chinese interests within 1-2 weeks, and then approaching the UN with a diplomatic solution.

a terrorist nuclear attack is hypothetical,but in case it happens there will be no pakistan.and if you say that what if an attack happens after disintegration of pakistan i have no answer.

my thanks to you,you have opened a new corridor which needs to be surveyed

Your welcome. Unfortunately, India does not have any easy way out of nuclear terrorism after the dissolution of a Pakistani state. That is why I stated if the only way India can secure its borders is to destabilize a nuclear-armed neighbor with organized religious extremism to the point of dissolution, then India has already lost the 'security game'.

 

[drkrn]

Your welcome. Unfortunately, India does not have any easy way out of nuclear terrorism after the dissolution of a Pakistani state. That is why I stated if the only way India can secure its borders is to destabilize a nuclear-armed neighbor with organized religious extremism to the point of dissolution, then India has already lost the 'security game'.

no country does have an easy way out,including china.
destabilized pakistan is not in the interest of the world as a whole.

 

[prohumanity]

[I agree with a lot of your analysis. One fact I want to mention...it's not China anymore who is helping Paki. That is old news when there was a stategic axis....US..China..Paki.....That axis is broken and now, its only US and Paki. Some in US..esp. zionists lobby still dreaming that Paki can be used to harass India or China and can be used as a pawn ..to balance the rising Giants.
China is a prudent, practical power who never in history..had imperialistic aspirations. Why would they make a Chinese Wall....that's their philosophy..for centuries...you stay in your home and we will stay in our home. But, Western propaganda machine is very powerful.it can create false imopressions...it is west who always tried to dominate rest of the World. Time to read history with an open mind and remove your Western Glassses then, only you will see the real truth. Enough of China bashing..lets be honest now.

 

[bennedose]

Your welcome. Unfortunately, India does not have any easy way out of nuclear terrorism after the dissolution of a Pakistani state. That is why I stated if the only way India can secure its borders is to destabilize a nuclear-armed neighbor with organized religious extremism to the point of dissolution, then India has already lost the 'security game'.

India has no way out of nuclear terrorism even before dissolution of the Paki state. The idea is to make China feel pain as Pakistan dissolves. There are various ways of doing that. One is to ensure that Chinese projects in Pakistan do not make headway. Another is to be normal - that is to foster peaceful Islam of all denominations in India so that Islamic extremism is exported to all nations who suppress innocent Muslims - such as the Chinese in Xinjiang. Another thing to do is to keep just enough conventional military pressure on Pakistan to make them spend too much on arms - so China has to give them aid and get little in return. Another is to keep the possibility of a Chinese land route via Pakistan under permanent threat.

These things were more difficult when Pakistan was not breaking up on its own. Pakistan was then coherent and united enough pose a conventional threat t to India so that there was a threat of conventional attck from Pakistan long before anything became nuclear. Right now the conventional attack threat has diminished to random terrorism so India can concentrate on making things difficult for China.

Nuclear weapons cannot simply be set off by a bunch of ragtag terrorists. They require state support and a robust physics/engineering backing. And even if two or three nukes are set off in India - India can take it. Pakistan, and one of China's threadbare "string of pearls" will be finished. Japan became better after two nukes. Why not India? Maybe a post-nuke india will then help improve China similarly, with Pakistan out of the way.
The fact that China must prepare for closure of its border with Pakistan shows how much this "friendship" has degenerated and how badly China's South Asia policy has floundered. Getting any satisfaction from saying "India has already lost" is simply a form of rhetorical onanism that seeks to get joy from a theoretical future setback to India while denying and ignoring China's epic failed policy with its "Taller than highest mountain, deeper than deepest Ocean, sweeter than honey" whore, Pakistan.

 

[mikhail]

And I suggest you take a basic English course if those sentences are too hard for you to understand.,:cool2:

so now you're gonna teach us about the importance of a basic English course,considering the fact that you can't even write a simple English sentence without the help of the Google translator......

 

[bennedose]

How does a missile find its target? Whatever the guidance system, the missile must first "know" (or have programmed into its guidance system) the coordinates of the launch point. That means that a Pakistani missile that is driven off into the wild blue yonder by terrorists is not simply going to find a target unless accurate coordinates are fed in. That means state support for terrorists.

A nuclear bomb is a complex system that cannot be simply goaded to explode like an IED. Having mated warheads - i.e warheads "ready for launch" has the disadvantage that they need heavy security and they also need maintenance from time to time - because a ready to use warhead stored for months or years will slowly degenerate as some nuclear materials decay and other materials are affected by radiation. Pakistanis claim that their warheads are not "ready to use" i.e that the warheads are not mated. This adds an extra layer of trouble for the terrorist who wants to simply steal and lob a warhead at India - because it takes trained physicists and technicians who are familiar with that particular design. So a "terrorist Pakistani bomb" is impossible. If a bomb goes off at all it will have the full involvement of Pakistani nuclear technicians, physicists and the Pakistani army. Now all these people need not wait for Pakistan to break up to launch a nuke at India. If Pakistan breaks up, funding will go and technicians may disperse from the chaos. So an intact Pakistanis the one that has the best chance of lobbing a nuke at India - not a Pakistan that has broken up.

If you look at Pakistani deaths over the last 10 years - the maximum number of Pakis have been killed by other Pakistanis who hate each others guts. They all may hate India, but they are busy killing each other. Some of these groups would love to lob a nuke at their personal enemies. And Pakistan has already faced some serious attacks on nuclear facilities and bases where nukes are said to be stored. For these reasons, security is heavy and fissile material is probably stored separate from the rest of the warhead and delivery vehicle.

So this business of "terrorist nuke" is something that is advantageous for people to talk about to scare others. In fact the Pakistani army has regularly used the scare tactic that unless they are funded and supported, terrorists will get nukes. China believes this and pays money to the Paki army. If India believed it India would pay money too. In fact nothing of the sort will happen. If a nuke is used it will inevitably be the Pakistani army alone. That the Pakistani army is a terrorist army is another matter.

In other words this entire argument that "If Pakistan breaks India will become more unsafe as terrorists get nukes" is pure bullshit.

 

[bennedose]

Pakistani air force technicians are, I am sure, familiar with Sidewinder missiles. At a stretch, one could imagine that at least some technicians wil be familiar with how to store, transport, load and arm AMRAAM missiles which the US is giving to Pakistan. But what if Pakistanis suddenly got a gift of Rafael Python missiles. They would not be able to instantly know how to transport,m store, load and arm them. The would need more information in the form of written material or hand-held guidance. These missiles are specialized equipment - not self explanatory and simple like washing machines and cellphones. Or ceiling fans.

Now imagine a nuclear bomb. A nuke has several components. A fissile core that is radioactive and requires special storage and transport. A conventional explosive component that is very specialized in size and shape. it also must have very precise electronics that are connected up to cause that conventional explosive to set off the nuclear explosion by exploding in a very precise sequence. And to top all this the damn thing must not go off in a Paki bunker like that Patna soosai bomber in a Patna railway toilet.

To meet such requirements, nuclear bombs require a specialized team trained and experienced in handling all the components and readying them. A basic core team with all the necessary skills must be present to arm and ready the nuclear bomb for use. because nukes are small in number and subject to very strict secrecy in all nations, the number of such teams are small - probably smaller than the number of teams familiar with Sidewinder missiles in Pakistan. But at least one of these teams have to all turn rogue and become terrorists who launch a strike against India. And that has to be done right from the middle of a secure Pakistani base.

But guess what" Pakistanis are already anti India to the highest degree. As one Chinese visitor to this thread pointed out, they have all been indoctrinated to hate India. So if they all hate India how is the risk to India suddenly going to increase if Pakistan collapses? Logically the implication is that there must be some India lover now who is stopping nukes from hitting India now, but suddenly when Pakistan collapses the India lovers will simply vanish leaving only the India haters as a complete team to launch a rogue nuke. How can that assumption be made? If Pakistan collapses, the nuke launch team itself may break up. Or the people who take over may hate the US because of drone strikes or they may hate China and its supporters in the Pakistan army because of crackdowns on Islamic groups. They may hate Israel or Shias. So there is no logic other than high hopes in the statement that a collapsed Pakistan will increase nuclear risk to India.

It only suits an internet based argument to reach that narrow conclusion. The possibilities that one could expect if Pakistan collapses are far less certain and no one should imagine that ONLY India will be at risk. Now I am not the only person who believes this. The US and China know that risk to everyone else increases if Pakistan collapses. That is why they are supporting Pakistan. India need not do that. The risk to India actually decreases if Pakistan collapses.