If Pakistan Splinters - Bharat Verma

[bose]

And I suggest you take a basic English course if those sentences are too hard for you to understand.,:cool2:

Can you suggest a good Chinese school that teaches basic English course ??

 

[Ray]

Can you suggest a good Chinese school that teaches basic English course ??

Do they have any?

Why are you wasting your time with him?

 

[t_co]

I fully agree with your view and infact it has been my line of argument with many of my coursemates and classmates in services and GOI. pakistan disintegrated is the only solution to all our security problems. Anyone who says that a strong unified pakistan is in India's interest is a bloodyfool IMHO. We must do our best to break away Baluchistan from Pak asap followed by Sindh. The Pakistan which came into existance on 14th Aug 1947 was a state with just Punjab, Sindh and NWFP. They annexed Baluchistan in 1948/49 forcibly.
Once Pakistan is broken up, the balance of power will shift decisively in India's favour against China and China will be much lesser a threat in Asia for us.

If the only solution to your security problems is the disintegration of a nuclear-armed neighbor with religious extremists, then you have already lost.

 

[bennedose]

If the only solution to your security problems is the disintegration of a nuclear-armed neighbor with religious extremists, then you have already lost.

Has China lost then? The USSR broke up after 1990. If one nuclear armed country breaks up, why would a neighbour lose? In fact China, Pakistan's "taller than the tallest mountain, deeper than the deepest ocean, sweeter than honey" all weather friend stands to lose more by Pakistan's break up than anyone else. Pakistan's degeneration after Chinas robust support to Pakistan against India is one of China's worst politico-military defeats. You can still turn it to victory by supporting and stabilizing Pakistan.

I think the Chinese should help Pakistan by quickly repairing the Karakoram highway between Islamabad and Xinjiang. Indians are simply killing Pakistanis at the border and Pakistanis will look to China for relief. Allow Pakistani refugees to resettle in Xinjiang, and the Han will be allowed to setttle in Baluchistan. Maybe that could be the start of a new "Pako-Han", "Islamo-communist empire/caliphate"

 

[aerokan]

If the only solution to your security problems is the disintegration of a nuclear-armed neighbor with religious extremists, then you have already lost.

The alternative is worse which is the existence of Pakistan. Let's say we are willing to do this little favor to the world. Ofcourse, there is no need for nuclear blackmail everytime. We heard it the first time and we are willing to take our chances if it means a total annihilation of the enemy.

"I don't care if I follow your rules. If you can cheat, so can I. I won't let you beat me unfairly — I'll beat you unfairly first." -Ender Wiggin

 

[Ray]

Has China lost then? The USSR broke up after 1990. If one nuclear armed country breaks up, why would a neighbour lose? In fact China, Pakistan's "taller than the tallest mountain, deeper than the deepest ocean, sweeter than honey" all weather friend stands to lose more by Pakistan's break up than anyone else. Pakistan's degeneration after Chinas robust support to Pakistan against India is one of China's worst politico-military defeats. You can still turn it to victory by supporting and stabilizing Pakistan.

I think the Chinese should help Pakistan by quickly repairing the Karakoram highway between Islamabad and Xinjiang. Indians are simply killing Pakistanis at the border and Pakistanis will look to China for relief. Allow Pakistani refugees to resettle in Xinjiang, and the Han will be allowed to setttle in Baluchistan. Maybe that could be the start of a new "Pako-Han", "Islamo-communist empire/caliphate"

That is a rather interesting thought.

However. they Chinese would stand to lose if they allow Pakistani refugees to settle in Xinjiang.

It will horribly change the demography that the Chinese have so assiduously woven to ensure a Han majority with all sorts of incentives for the Han to settle and prosper at the cost of the Uyghurs.

 

[bennedose]

However. they Chinese would stand to lose if they allow Pakistani refugees to settle in Xinjiang.

Ray - I'm not sure if you recall a Hindi movie character called "Ajit" who was the source of many jokes. One joke was "Isko liquid oxygen mein duba de - liquid ise jeene nahin dega aur oxygen ise marne nahin dega" IOW "Immerse this chap in liquid oxygen. The liquid will not allow him to live but the oxygen will not allow him to die'

China and its all weather friend Pakistan have a relationship that is like Ajit's adversary in liquid oxygen.

To maintain their contacts they not only have to repair and build solid communication links between Xinjiang and Pakistan, but permit constant movement of vehicles and people. But then Pakistan is the IT capital of the world - yes the IT -International Terrorism capital, and Uighurs have found safe haven and received training in Pakistan. That will get easier with the close links between the brothers, Pakistan and China.

If you go back to Musharraf's days, the Lal Masjid standoff was the start of the civil war in Pakistan. Islamists with a heavy contingent of girls had occupied the Islamabad mosque. One day they kidnapped a few Chinese women who were running an Islamabad massage parlour - a euphemism for a brothel where Chinese women (already in short supply in China) "service" wealthy Pakistani men. China complained to Musharraf and he, ever anxious to please his all weather friends, attacked the mosque. So this is a huge chip on the Taliban's shoulders and there is a direct Chinese link. I have a video lying around somewhere - I will locate it and post somewhere

 

[Ray]

Yeah I remember Ajit.

He is the Mona Darling chap.

And Sab hame Loin kehta hai!

 

[t_co]

Has China lost then? The USSR broke up after 1990. If one nuclear armed country breaks up, why would a neighbour lose?

1. The original argument in this thread is whether India will lose, not whether China will.
2. On that argument, if Pakistan loses disintegrates, it is extremely probable that Islamist elements will get their hands on nuclear devices.
3. If Pakistani Islamist elements get their hands on nuclear devices, India will be their first target. (Yes, I know China, the US, and Russia would also be possible targets for said elements, but India would be the most convenient and most hated target).
4. Ergo, if Pakistan disintegrates, it is likely that India would suffer nuclear terrorism.
5. If India suffers nuclear terrorism while Pakistan does not exist as a state entity, there is no legal target for Indian nuclear retaliation. (e.g. If India retaliates by nuking a Pakistani city when it is clear Pakistan's government did not nuke India since Pakistan's government has ceased to exist, that would be an illegal act, and the GoI is complicit in a massive war crime. Under international law, civilians of a specific area are held as innocent of the actions of a non-governmental entity that happens to also reside in the area.)
6. Ergo, if Pakistan disintegrates, it is likely that India would be placed in a situation where it had to suffer nuclear attacks without being able to respond in kind. The only solution would be occupying Pakistan with a mix of infantry, spec ops, and drones to hunt down terrorist figures.
7. Certainly, the IA would be justified in occupying Pakistan to root out terrorist elements - but that would make the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan look like a brawl between primary school students; the casualties would be horrific; since COIN is messy, the IA would inevitably be complicit in war crimes.
8. If the IA occupies Pakistan, the constant drain of manpower and materiel for pacification and rebuilding parts of Pakistan would impose long-term economic costs on India at a time when the Indian economy would already be weakened by the specter of nuclear attack.

In fact China, Pakistan's "taller than the tallest mountain, deeper than the deepest ocean, sweeter than honey" all weather friend stands to lose more by Pakistan's break up than anyone else. Pakistan's degeneration after Chinas robust support to Pakistan against India is one of China's worst politico-military defeats. You can still turn it to victory by supporting and stabilizing Pakistan.

9. Returning to your argument, the occupation of Pakistan by the IA would also weaken India's strategic position vis a vis China, by tying down large parts of the Indian army in COIN campaigns in a deeply hostile land as well as diverting large chunks of the budget from high-end platforms to fight a conventional war to low-end platforms designed to counter an insurgency.
10. It would also trigger a response by the entire Muslim world against India. Saudi Arabia, in particular, would be enticed to support an insurgency campaign against any IA occupation. Think Syria, but worse.
11. The Western powers, Russia, and China would all thank India for shouldering the noble burden of killing so many terrorists, and go on their merry way of making each other rich while India loses a decade of growth, perhaps more.

In summary, a disintegrated Pakistan creates immense strategic issues for India. I am curious to hear what benefits for India you think could exist, and why they would outweigh such costs.

 

[Decklander]

@t_co, did you ever think about the ethenic muslims within your own country? What stops them from using those bombs to blow up Beijing? You have been suppressing muslims unlike India where they enjoy full freedom.

 

[bennedose]

2. On that argument, if Pakistan loses disintegrates, it is extremely probable that Islamist elements will get their hands on nuclear devices.
3. If Pakistani Islamist elements get their hands on nuclear devices, India will be their first target.

This is where I disagree - which is why the rest of your arguments are irrelevant to my opinion. You have your view and I have mine, which I will spell out below.

The Pakistani army as Islamist as they come, especially with regard to their mortal enemy, India. Their behavior is more secular with their aid givers the USA and China. . And Pakistan and its army has already threatened India with nuclear weapons (yes direct open threats) several times.

India is already under maximum threat. There cannot be "more threat" to India simply because some other Paki dik-sucker gets his dirty hands on nukes. The only thing that changes is that "islamist elements" will start looking at nuking others - and that incudes the US and China.

That is why Chins is so keen on an intactt Pakistan

In fact if your argument was right, why would China desire an intact Pakistan? A split Pakistan would really get India into trouble. After that China can help itself to whatever land it wants from India. But no. If Pakistan has 100 nukes, all 100 are aimed at India today. If Islamists get nukes. Only 50 will be aimed at India. The other 50 will kiss China and the USA. Everyone knows this and that is why the US and China are bribing the Pakistan army.

India of course can do nothing but watch this drama. Hence its beer and popcorn time. At worst there is no change in threat levels. At best our threat levels reduce. :cool2:

 

[t_co]

@t_co, did you ever think about the ethenic muslims within your own country? What stops them from using those bombs to blow up Beijing? You have been suppressing muslims unlike India where they enjoy full freedom.

I have, and there is that possibility (along with the possibility they would be used against Russia or the US). But Pakistan has been indoctrinating its extremist elements to hate India rather than China for the past 50 years (aside from a brief spell where they were told to hate the Soviet Union). It has also trained lots of them to assault Indian targets. Finally, it is much, much easier to head from Pakistan to India than it is from Pakistan to China. From both a motives and a capabilities standpoint, India would be, by far, the largest target for any Pakistani terrorist - even more so in the aftermath of a humiliating disintegration of Pakistan.

 

[Decklander]

I have, and there is that possibility (along with the possibility they would be used against Russia or the US). But Pakistan has been indoctrinating its extremist elements to hate India rather than China for the past 50 years (aside from a brief spell where they were told to hate the Soviet Union). It has also trained lots of them to assault Indian targets. Finally, it is much, much easier to head from Pakistan to India than it is from Pakistan to China. From both a motives and a capabilities standpoint, India would be, by far, the largest target for any Pakistani terrorist - even more so in the aftermath of a humiliating disintegration of Pakistan.

FYI, inspite of your best efforts to support Pak govt, muslims from your regions are getting trained by ISI to ensure that you do not ditch Pak armed forces. What makes you believe that we Indians will not ensure that nukes are carried to your land and bursted there? We love eachother to death, don't we? You are my enemy and I am your enemy. What if we Indians get hold of pak nukes and give them to Tibettans? If Pakistan disintegrates, India will take over the airspace over POK. You will loose access to pak mainland and we will be free to hurt you with your own nuke bombtech which you gave to Pakistan.

 

[bennedose]

Finally, it is much, much easier to head from Pakistan to India than it is from Pakistan to China.

Oh I am sure that problem will be solved very soon by China. Pakistanis say that the Chinese are going to take over the port at Gwadar and then China will get all its oil supplies by train or road from Pakistan to Xinjiang. So there will definitely be great land links between Pakistan and China and China's long and tenuous sea lanes will no longer be needed for oil. India on the other hand has a fence at the border and kiills every Pakistani who tries to cross. But Pakistanis and Chinese are all weather friends

It really is Catch 22 for China. If they want to use Gwadar and bypass the sea lanes, they have to let Pakistanis in. If not Pakistan will collapse. I'm lovin the things that are happening in Islamist circles of Pakistan and Xinjiang. All that India needs to do is to ensure that Islam rules unopposed in the Islamic Republic of Pakistan and land created for pure Islam. Bismilla ur Rahman ur Rahim.

 

[datguy79]

Am I missing a memo here? When has India said it will occupy Pakistan (minus PoK), much less conduct COIN operations there?

 

[t_co]

FYI, inspite of your best efforts to support Pak govt, muslims from your regions are getting trained by ISI to ensure that you do not ditch Pak armed forces. What makes you believe that we Indians will not ensure that nukes are carried to your land and bursted there? We love eachother to death, don't we? You are my enemy and I am your enemy. What if we Indians get hold of pak nukes and give them to Tibettans? If Pakistan disintegrates, India will take over the airspace over POK. You will loose access to pak mainland and we will be free to hurt you with your own nuke bombtech which you gave to Pakistan.

Why would India need to give Pakistani nukes to militant Tibetan exiles, when India has nukes of its own?

 

[bennedose]

Am I missing a memo here? When has India said it will occupy Pakistan (minus PoK), much less conduct COIN operations there?

Someone is hoping that India will be stupid enough to do that and is basing an entire argument on that hope. India loves Pakistan and wants it to survive. We weep as we watch it splinter.

 

[t_co]

Oh I am sure that problem will be solved very soon by China. Pakistanis say that the Chinese are going to take over the port at Gwadar and then China will get all its oil supplies by train or road from Pakistan to Xinjiang. So there will definitely be great land links between Pakistan and China and China's long and tenuous sea lanes will no longer be needed for oil. India on the other hand has a fence at the border and kiills every Pakistani who tries to cross. But Pakistanis and Chinese are all weather friends

It really is Catch 22 for China. If they want to use Gwadar and bypass the sea lanes, they have to let Pakistanis in. If not Pakistan will collapse. I'm lovin the things that are happening in Islamist circles of Pakistan and Xinjiang. All that India needs to do is to ensure that Islam rules unopposed in the Islamic Republic of Pakistan and land created for pure Islam. Bismilla ur Rahman ur Rahim.

You must be daft if you think that China would not close the entire Pakistani border in the aftermath of a Pakistani collapse. In addition, the PLA would have no compunctions about using drones, snipers, and heliborne RRFs to set up a shoot-on-sight policy for sensitive areas of the border.

 

[t_co]

Am I missing a memo here? When has India said it will occupy Pakistan (minus PoK), much less conduct COIN operations there?

Then what will India do if Pakistan disintegrates and a Nasr warhead then goes off in Delhi?

 

[Dovah]

Then what will India do if Pakistan disintegrates and a Nasr warhead then goes off in Delhi?

Hi, are you aware what a NASR is?