How Long Will It Take for India to Surpass China?

Kay

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How long? - Not before the last quarter of this century - Possibly not in our lifetime.
True that Mao's Central Planning was not working well for China's economy - but he did gave a foundation to China in terms of education and healthcare. Some other social problems were removed.
Deng Xiaoping focused equally on agriculture and industry - as well as defense and science and technology. Four Modernizations - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
All of these are important for the success of a nation. China is corrupt - but can deal with it more effectively than in India.
 
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Kay

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To be fair - China's state control and concessions allowed them to compete successfully. Free market is a myth - everyone looks at their own interests. Everything is about the degree and sophistication of regulation.
 

no smoking

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Whether you believe it or not, the difference in economic policies is the only reason China is ahead of India by around 10 years. We liberalized 13 years after China, and that is the reason, period. We will never be able to say for sure whether India would have been "ahead" or China would have been "ahead", but India and China would have been pretty close if we had liberalized in 1978.
No, on 1949, India was far ahead of China on almost every single Industrial product and every single human development index! But by the year of 1978, the tie was turned. China already surpass India on most of sectors except GDP per capita.

Economic policies are the only thing that matter. Look at the way Taiwan developed compared to China initially. Look at North and South Korea, East and West Germany...
The question is: how China managed to close her gap with India in just 30 years?

By the way, @Mad Indian never said that you were "lucky". He said that you reformed your economy on time. I would attribute some element of luck to it - if Mao had stayed alive for another 13 years we would have been in the same boat today (more or less).
The thing you guys don't know is: "Opening up" policy was implemented by Mao. He was the one turning the boat around, not Deng.

The reason totalitarian China opened up 13 years before India is because China got a visionary ruler called Deng Xiaoping. We were saddled with Rajiv Gandhi and co. It took near-bankruptcy to force India into action and reform.
Wrong again. Deng certainly should be credited for his leading role in the reform. But he was not the unique one. Actually, by the end of cultural revolution, almost every faction in CCP had their own liberation plan for China, different in detail but same direction.

If totalitarian China had got another Mao after 1978, you would have been in deeper shit than ever. So, while it is "possible" that China may steal another ten-year March on India, the reverse is also possible.
No, I doubt it.
It was Mao who settled with Americans.
It was Mao who first started to rebuild up commercial relationship with West.
It was Mao who started to send Chinese students to study in western universities.
Without Mao, Deng would need another 10 years to even start the whole policy.
 
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amoy

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To be fair - China's state control and concessions allowed them to compete successfully. Free market is a myth - everyone looks at their own interests. Everything is about the degree and sophistication of regulation.
IMO state control has its limits mostly confined to so-called strategic sectors, in which private stake is also partaking by public listing. beyond that free market shall play in full swing. nevertheless in the global competition a staunch state backing is indispensible ~ that's why US state sec. Hillary lobbied u for opening up retailing, with her 10 ACs sailing 24/7 across oceans to safeguard the freedom.

~Tapa talks: Orange is the new black.~
 

Jatt.Hindustan

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Liberalize with what?

First fact is bith China and India most prosperous years were under monarchy. Yes, the son wasn't always made king but it was ksytrii raaj. Yes China followed vedic dharm as well google Chinas mahabharat.

Second West shipped off its dactory to Chuna, service sector to us. You want India to have destroyed world most fertile kand, to make toy guns for little white boys?

--
Goras looted 2 3 continents, N S America and Australia. They were propelled forward, but fact is youth unemployment

In mant european countries is beyond 50% They can go back to marrying their cousin, and being serf on a farm but that's abiut it.

Watch yiur tongue, when you say something bad abiht my mother.

50% of Us doctor and scientist are hindus, the only true sons of sat sindhu.

Simple fact is, cong gov ruined us and sonia was cut above other gandhis in being melech.


All you actually need is an industrial base for military. Everything else is consumerism greed which is ahainst hindu culture, as we worship nature not destroy and molest it fir our iwn insatiable materialist ambitions.

It's called maya,

This 'consumerist' cukture is abiut ego. You believe creator and creation are separate, so you want to create to elevate yourself above animals.

Why di abrahamic countries have so many perversions? From their pov, they are marveling at god's creation of woman. A vessel for their pleasure not that western women are not psycotic randis, but for the men that is their ideology.

We only take out of nature what is nessecary for our survival. All we need to manufacture is military equipment. Yes some thunfs like internet and mobile device speed uo communication. Even then not every person needs and when not every person needa a radio for larfer agricultural hubs works well, enough.

The difference between technology as a tool and a religion is: the abrahamic meme, ideology or culture can dishuise itseld in ant shape. There is abrahamic version of sikhi and hindu as well remember that.

You can use either technology for your purposes or just admire its creators which is what they want. If you know your 'indian' history you won't do the latter.

batan faquiri, zahir amiri,
shastar garib ki rakhya, jarwan ki bhakhiya,
Baba Nanak sansar nahi tyagya, Maya tyagi thi

Internally a hermit, and externally a prince. Arms mean protection to the poor and destruction of the tyrant. Baba Nanak had not renounced the world but had renounced Maya,

Guru Hargobind Sahib's response ti Samarth Ramdas (Guru of Shiva Maratha)

ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾ।।ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਹਿ।।
 
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Bangalorean

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No, on 1949, India was far ahead of China on almost every single Industrial product and every single human development index! But by the year of 1978, the tie was turned. China already surpass India on most of sectors except GDP per capita.

The question is: how China managed to close her gap with India in just 30 years?

The thing you guys don't know is: "Opening up" policy was implemented by Mao. He was the one turning the boat around, not Deng.

Wrong again. Deng certainly should be credited for his leading role in the reform. But he was not the unique one. Actually, by the end of cultural revolution, almost every faction in CCP had their own liberation plan for China, different in detail but same direction.

No, I doubt it.
It was Mao who settled with Americans.
It was Mao who first started to rebuild up commercial relationship with West.
It was Mao who started to send Chinese students to study in western universities.
Without Mao, Deng would need another 10 years to even start the whole policy.
You are wrong. India and China were fairly the same in 1978. India had a greater GDP, GDP (PPP) and GDP per capita, it has higher forex reserves, it had better railway and road networks. China had better indicators of literacy, health, etc. So, by and large, both nations were at the same level. From 1949 to 1978, India made some progress in some aspects while China progressed in some other aspects. India had a pool of supremely talented world-beating engineers even in 1978, who formed a massive chunk of expats in the US high-tech industry. China took time to start sending their folk out of the country.

You are giving credit to Mao for some things, and yeah - every leader has done some good things. NO one is 100% bad. Even the worst Indian leaders have done a few good things. But it is the overall balance that needs to be measured. On the whole, Mao was a terrible thing to happen to China, and to the world.

It is laughable to say that "without Mao, Deng would need 10 years to start the policy". That's crap - without Mao, Deng would have started these tasks even earlier.
 

Sylex21

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I have seen that a lot, China opened its economy a decade earlier hence it's ahead, blah, blah... as if India could have surpassed China had India started reforming at the same time, which in my opinion is very argumentative.

But that is not my point, the point I want to make is that India is behind because of that mentality displayed by "Mad Indian", who fails to look deeply into the causes of the growing gap between India and China, but simply attributes it to China being lucky.

let's me ask you a simple question, have you ever thought about the reason why a totalitarian China managed to open up ten years before a democratic India? If that ten years was what makes China ahead India as you suggested, how is it not possible that China steals another ten-year march on India next time?

Sent from my HUAWEI P7-L07 using Tapatalk 2

Ummmmm a totalitarian communist government SHOULD move faster than a stable democratic one. Also you mean "shrinking gap". India's economy is growing faster than Chinas. China has about 900M workers predicted to SHRINK to 600M by 2050. China's be lucky to show any growth at all as their one child policy catches up long term. China is like a kid who got a job after high school bragging about how rich he is, India is like a student who went to college and is about to graduate with an advanced degree.
 

Aravind Sanjeev

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Let's look at the population and workforce of each countries.

China has as of currently higher population than India and a matching Work force. (people below 35 years old)
By 2020, China's average population is going to be 40 above. in Japan, it's going to fall deep in to the 40s, in Europe -49 and US -40 while India it would be 29.
The workforce of India will be the combined workforce of US, Europe and China which is around 1 Billion people. It's a sure fact, investment in India will rise.

Also, standard of living in China have considerably increased. China is the primary source of cheap labor in the world. But if India is going to provide even more cheap labor, Chinese economy will have a hard time while Indian economy will have a great one.

The most noted problem with China is half of the corporate out there are partially owned by the Chinese govt. It has made bad mark for the country and negative impact on the investment.

India has problems too, mainly in India, both governments is trying to neutralize or balance what the other govt have done during their previous reign. If we keep on tying and untying, the economy will be fatigued.
 

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