Bullet Train: Dreamers & visionaries usually win the day, cynics don’t
Steve Ballmer, former CEO of Microsoft Corporation, is probably not remembered as well as the other `Steve’ of Silicon Valley,
Steve Jobs and there are a number of good reasons for this. One particular instance stands out though. He predicted in 2007 that the
iPhonehas no chance of any significant market share and the Windows Phone would probably corner a greater share. To be fair to Steve (Ballmer that is), he wasn’t the only one predicting doomsday for Jobs’ crowning achievement. Others like the online journal Techcrunch, tech columnists and rivals such as
BlackBerryand Nokia also said the same. iPhone, they said, would achieve nothing.
We all know what happened after that and and the reason why we remember the iPhone and several other projects and initiatives considered `dumb’ or `expensive’ when they started is the ill-considered and hysterical response to proposed the
bullet train service between Mumbai and Ahmedabad.
One can understand partisan sniping but the fact this criticism has been propagated by serious journalists and academicians means there is something more at play. Maybe it is Modi Hatred (MH), a peculiar phenomenon prevalent to critics of the government and the BJP and which rears its head whenever it comes to debating discussing prime minister Narendra Modi’s performance or policies.
What are the immediate advantages of a bullet train? There are several of them. It could lead to speedier travel between two bustling, business-oriented cities, increase tourist flows, develop the stretch of coastal land that runs between the two states, reduce congestion in Mumbai. The possibilities are endless. Critics say that the flying time between the two cities is about an hour and if you add another one hour to airport waiting time it is two hours and the bullet train is not really faster. Actually, that is not true. As any traveller in Mumbai knows, you need to get to the airport fairly early to avoid hassles at security and check-in counters.
These delays are there even if you do a web check in. So, if you factor all that in the two-stop bullet train it is actually quite competitive. Even with the 12-stop train, you will get to Ahmedabad faster from Mumbai.
Secondly, everybody is not a flyer. Even with cheap airfares, many people prefer train travel. This is because they may be travelling to other places on the Mumbai-Ahmedabad route like Vapi, Surat, Vadodara, Boisar etc. If the pricing is right, this train can cater to them and cut down their travel time substantially. Everything about the bullet train cannot be about financial viability. Rail travel is also about convenience and productivity.
If a service cuts down by travel time by half while being slightly dearer on my pocket, would I necessarily spurn it? Many people may decide it is worth the money.
Thirdly, as Vinayak Chatterjee, chairman of Feedback Infra Pvt Ltd points out, there is a Make In India component in the agreement with Japan which will kick in in the next couple of years. Localised manufacture and transfer of technology are recognised as twin, complementary objectives under the project, he writes in an article in the Indian Express. One should not forget these benefits.
Fourthly, one should not underestimate the impact on the reduction in travel time and the prospects for tourism, especially weekend travel.
Will people in the Mumbai suburbs like Virar and Thane shift to further locations on the route and travel to work in Mumbai. With the bullet train, that is now a distinct possibility. What about tourism? Why can’t more beach resorts like Daman, Silvassa open up on that route to take advantage of the shorter travel time between two big cities?
Last but not the least. This is a dream project. By this I mean it is a project that is calculated to deliver specific economic benefits while also making Indians feel good about themselves. It is like ISRO’s space launches. It does not deliver any economic benefit to the nation but makes us feel good and proud of our abilities.
The bullet train combines this with specific economic advantages. If executed properly across the country, it can have the same impact as Maruti did in the 1980s on automobile industry and rise of the middle class.
PM Modi may or may not be a dreamer but he is definitely a disruptor. Like FDR in America of the 1930s who ended that country’s fascination with gold, Modi is trying to fundamentally change the way Indian economic system thinks and operates. Demonetisation, GST, electric vehicles and yes, now bullet trains. History will judge whether he is successful or not but this is a momentous occasion for India with all this massive change.
Also, history remembers those political and business leaders who are disruptors. FDR, De Gaulle, Henry Ford, Bill Gates, Steve Jobs and
Elon Musk. PM Modi’s economic policies and programmes will either put him in that pantheon of leaders and disruptors or dump him in the forgotten bin of history. Only time will tell but the omens are looking good for him and his team.
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