GDP growth slows to 5.3 percent in January-March quarter 2011-12

[charlyondfi]

We are seeing a global slow down. In India's case, it's far from recession (yet), so let's stop talking about gloom for specific country. "Export economy" country like China should stay alert -- just alert, NO need nervous nor even panic (yet, also), considering it still has quite a few leverages. Nevertheless, we may see more bad signs ahead.

Eurozone unemployment at record high 11%
Poor unemployment report points to troubled US economy

One doubt in my mind is the key/top concern, like low inflation as P2 mentioned. Instead, I believe India will soon need to make tough decision on currency exchange rate ("manipulation"?), as it seems already started, and interest rate, too. IMO.

 

[Mad Indian]

Yes. The Rupee is weak and 8% is still a good figure.

But with a weak rupee, our services revenue should have shot up no? Correct me if I am wrong.

Academics had pegged the growth between 5.5% and 6.5% for the quarter. It went a bit lower than the lowest median, hence all the jittery reaction.

I Still doubt we can get a 7% growth or even 6.5%

EDIT: High growth is not the answer to the economic hiccup we are facing. Low inflation is the key and Pranab understands that as he mentioned it several times himself.

And what has his highness, Pranabji done about it other than Chit chat?

 

[p2prada]

But with a weak rupee, our services revenue should have shot up no? Correct me if I am wrong.

Our companies have a more global presence now. A weak Rupee is good for our service industry, but not this weak.

I Still doubt we can get a 7% growth or even 6.5%

Can't guess so easily. The year has just started after all.

And what has his highness, Pranabji done about it other than Chit chat?

Only he can answer.

I really hope they allow 100% FDI in retail. That way our distribution would increase by many times with the infusion of technology. Directly benefit our farmers who number over 700Million.

 

[Armand2REP]

The upside here is that India's growth is coming mainly from the services sector. That means more sustainable consumption growth. Everyone is getting hit on the industrial side, China has been contracting for the last 7 months while India still grows.

 

[Sakal Gharelu Ustad]

I really hope they allow 100% FDI in retail. That way our distribution would increase by many times with the infusion of technology. Directly benefit our farmers who number over 700Million.

I am not sure about the benefit to the farmers but definitely it will infuse new life and some competition into the Bania class.

 

[LurkerBaba]

I am not sure about the benefit to the farmers but definitely it will infuse new life and some competition into the Bania class.

Hence the huge opposition to FDI in retail

 

[p2prada]

The upside here is that India's growth is coming mainly from the services sector. That means more sustainable consumption growth. Everyone is getting hit on the industrial side, China has been contracting for the last 7 months while India still grows.

I think our industry growth during Jan-Mar was 2.5%, down from 10% at the same time last year.

I am not sure about the benefit to the farmers but definitely it will infuse new life and some competition into the Bania class.

Walmart will deal directly with the farmers instead of going through petty dealers as is the case today. These guys are the worst. Someone has to bring the produce from the villages to the cities and these guys are scamsters. Inflation is good for them you see. The high rate of food does not benefit the farmers as much as it benefits the middlemen. Our inflation is calculated on WPI not CPI and farmers sell for even lower.

The supply chain that exists currently can be shattered and replaced with a more advanced version, at least in some parts of the country. Domestic retailers will feel the pinch with the competition and infuse more money into the sector. This will be the first time we will actually see FDI in agriculture. You can only imagine the benefits for our farmers in such a setup?

Bania class is the least of our concerns, they can survive even with the extra competition. The political class needs to take this decision once the next election comes up. Whichever party wins needs to allow FDI. They will have 5 years to survive the political blow back. This will definitely benefit our economy.

One of you economics students read up on the effect on the Chinese economy before and after they allowed FDI into their country and let us know. I am sure we can take a page from there.

 

[Sakal Gharelu Ustad]

I think our industry growth during Jan-Mar was 2.5%, down from 10% at the same time last year.



Walmart will deal directly with the farmers instead of going through petty dealers as is the case today. These guys are the worst. Someone has to bring the produce from the villages to the cities and these guys are scamsters. Inflation is good for them you see. The high rate of food does not benefit the farmers as much as it benefits the middlemen. Our inflation is calculated on WPI not CPI and farmers sell for even lower.

The supply chain that exists currently can be shattered and replaced with a more advanced version, at least in some parts of the country. Domestic retailers will feel the pinch with the competition and infuse more money into the sector. This will be the first time we will actually see FDI in agriculture. You can only imagine the benefits for our farmers in such a setup?

Bania class is the least of our concerns, they can survive even with the extra competition. The political class needs to take this decision once the next election comes up. Whichever party wins needs to allow FDI. They will have 5 years to survive the political blow back. This will definitely benefit our economy.

One of you economics students read up on the effect on the Chinese economy before and after they allowed FDI into their country and let us know. I am sure we can take a page from there.

Indian farmers are really small, so some kind of intermediate would be needed. How new retail chains would take this challenge would be interesting to see. But we cannot eliminate the role of middlemen even in this scenario. I know this from the sugar-cane industry, because there the firms make farm societies to overcome this problem of small land holdings. But the upside of these societies is that they guide farmers about new technologies and farm practices and also survey the total acreage under sugarcane. We can see something similar for other crops as well with the coming of these big retail chains.

I will try to look at the Chinese case.

 

[Iamanidiot]

Walmart is good for India the Farmers,The end users and The small kirana storewallahs will benefit.The bania class will get a bloody blowback the upside we will have low inflation.Iam seeing it already in Vijaywada

 

[Bangalorean]

I have long maintained that FDI in retail will be a good thing overall. Opposition to it is entirely driven by vested interest, financial and political. Hysterical madwomen like Uma Bharti use this issue to take up maximum political mileage. And today we had Baba Ramdev making some statement to a crowd of mesmerized followers that "FDI is also kaala dhan".

 

[Yusuf]

Walmart is good for India the Farmers,The end users and The small kirana storewallahs will benefit.The bania class will get a bloody blowback the upside we will have low inflation.Iam seeing it already in Vijaywada

dont under estimate the banias.

 

[Iamanidiot]

dont under estimate the banias.

Neither underestimate walmart also my community Thugs and assholes inc

 

[Yusuf]

Neither underestimate walmart also my community Thugs and assholes inc

There is a place for everyone under the sun.

 

[p2prada]

Indian farmers are really small, so some kind of intermediate would be needed. How new retail chains would take this challenge would be interesting to see. But we cannot eliminate the role of middlemen even in this scenario. I know this from the sugar-cane industry, because there the firms make farm societies to overcome this problem of small land holdings. But the upside of these societies is that they guide farmers about new technologies and farm practices and also survey the total acreage under sugarcane. We can see something similar for other crops as well with the coming of these big retail chains.

I will try to look at the Chinese case.

That intermediate will be better than the setup we have currently.

China is important because both countries are very similar when it comes to the ratio between urban and rural populations. Their solutions can be replicated, maybe even more advanced solutions.

They have this internet link called Retail link.
Wal-Mart China : Retail Link Overview

Lot of interesting things in this article
Wal-Mart China : Newsstand of Wal-Mart

Walmart said it will keep its focus on smaller cities in China. "So far, 80 percent of our Chinese stores are in second-, third- or even fourth-tier cities," Chan said. "I believe the lower-tier cities will see faster economic development than first-tier ones. So, Walmart China will increase its investment in lower-tier cities."

According to Kantar Worldpanel, a British research firm, Taiwan-headquartered RT-Mart is the biggest retailer on the mainland, with a 6.3 percent market share in the year ending June 17. Foreign chains such as Walmart, Carrefour and Tesco have a smaller market share in China than RT-Mart.

"The scale of online sales in China is expanding rapidly and is projected to match US online sales in the next few years," said Wan Ling Martello, executive vice-president of global e-commerce for emerging markets at Walmart. (My note: Brilliant benefits to the end user here).

1996 to 2012 would have seen major changes in China overall, ever since Walmart came to town. We are pretty much in a similar stage of economic conditions as China was from 1995-2000.

Edit: Another interesting article.
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2005/07/25/8266651/index.htm