India's fourth quarter GDP grows at 5.3%, below expected 6.1%
NDTV, 31 May 2012 | 12:54 PM
India's economy grew at a dismal rate of
5.3 per cent in the quarter ended March 2012, against expectations of 6.1 per cent projected by a poll of 31 economists.
The rate of growth in gross domestic product (GDP) was 6.1 per cent in the December quarter.
The GDP numbers means that growth has now slowed for eight successive quarters through the three months ended March 2012. It is also the lowest GDP growth rate in 13 quarters; the last time India registered the same rate of growth was in the quarter ended December 2009, when the global financial system had all but collapsed in the aftermath of the bankruptcy filing by Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
GDP growth for the full year was 6.5 per cent, the slowest pace in three years, and well below the 8.4 per cent last year. The Reserve Bank of India had projected GDP growth of 6.9 per cent.
"This is still a respectable rate of growth in the context of the world situation. In the current year, would expert 6.5-7%," said C. Rangarajan, chairman of the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council.
However, the investment community is unlikely to share his optimism, particularly given legislative action that they see as being inimical to private enterprise in the country, such as the retrospective tax rule and flip-flops over FDI in sectors such as multi-brand retail and aviation.
"Investors have taken a backseat in India," said U R Bhat, managing director of Dalton Capital, adding that fiscal policies need to be tightened.
"We should expect a slowdown if investment does not pick up," he said.
"I'm hoping the power imbroglio can be sorted out. The other thing is if FDI is announced, and limits on FII inflow are eased, that could bring some life into the market," said Rajiv Kumar, secretary general of industry body Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry, or FICCI.
Economic growth in the country has been shaken by a global economic slowdown, a currency at record lows and a government that has been unable to take strong action to curb the fiscal deficit as well as any meaningful reforms to further liberalise the economy.
The fiscal deficit came in at 5.9 per cent, in line with Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee's estimates in his Union Budget for fiscal 2013. The revenue gap was at Rs5.2 lakh crore, with government spending zooming to Rs13.19 lakh crore.
The fiscal deficit is seen by most experts as a major piece in the Iindia's economy jigsaw, which now seems to be falling apart. High government spending -- largely on account of entitlement programmes and subsidies on key commodities -- has pushed up government borrowing, leaving less liquidity in the system for private enterprises.
Mr. Mukherjee, in his Budget for fiscal 2013, had projected a fiscal deficit of 5.1 per cent of GDP -- lower than last fiscal, but much higher than what most experts are comfortable with.
"Maintaining the fiscal deficit would act as a great stimulant for investment," Mr. Rangarajan told NDTV Profit.
"I agree much of what is happening is due to domestic factors, the external situation has affected but the basic reason has to be seen in domestic factors, it is important to recognize that," said Mr. Rangarajan.
The farm sector, which is the single largest employer in the country but one of the lowest contributors to absolute GDP, grew at a measly 1.7 per cent against 7.5 per cent in the corresponding period last fiscal.
But the key drag on the growth numbers were the industrial and services sectors -- both key drivers of growth -- which came in lower than expected, at 1.9 and 7.9 per cent against 7 and 10.6 per cent in the year-ago period. Indian industrial production accounts for about 15 per cent of GDP. Manufacturing contracted a sharp (-) 0.3 per cent from 7.3 per cent in the same period last year.
"Manufacturing has not been doing well, finally it has turned out that growth was below estimates, it has pulled down growth. We have to improve manufacturing, agriculture will do well this year since normal monsoon expected," said Mr. Rangarajan.
India's car sales, a leading indicator of growth, rose in April just 3.4 per cent from a year earlier, the weakest pace since a surprise 24 per cent drop in October and sharply below the 13.2 per cent annual growth in April 2011.
A sluggish global economy has also cut demand for India's goods overseas, despite the falling rupee, which means exports may also not grow enough to compensate for the domestic weakness.
The weak rupee—which has shed nearly 12 per cent from its 2012 high on pressure from imports ane the euro's weakness—adds to policymakers' headaches by elevating import costs, most notably for crude oil, 80 per cent of which is imported. It also adds to the burden and risk exposure of Indian firms with foreign-currency debts.
A number of Indian companies resorted to raising money overseas when the rupee was stronger, and liquidity conditions at home were tight as the RBI kept interest rates high to tame inflation. However, inflation has continued to grow, while growth has slowed, prompting suggesting that India might have entered a period of 'stagflation'.
High inflation, stoked in part by the falling rupee, leaves the central bank little room to cut interest rates further. The RBI in April delivered a larger-than-expected 50 basis point cut in benchmark rates but warned that it sees limited scope for more reductions. Mr. Rangarajan, however, said help from the government was unlikely, saying there is "scope for financial stimulus is very limited".
However, India's growth rate will still remain higher than many Western economies, which are either contracting or showing only anemic expansion.
The euro zone economy came to a standstill in the first quarter of the year, while the United States grew at an unimpressive 2.2 per cent annualized rate.
Other major Asian economies are also slowing down. China's economy grew 8.1 per cent in the first quarter from a year earlier, its weakest pace in almost three years.
(With inputs from Thomson Reuters 2012)
India's fourth quarter GDP grows at 5.3%, below expected 6.1%