Endgame Looms In Fighter Competitions
While "legacy" platforms strive for supremacy in ongoing fighter battles, the "fifth-generation" contender's present fight is in Washington, with cost, test schedule and an alternative engine as critical issues.
Though absent from the flight line and flying display, the Lockheed Martin F-35 will remain a prominent point among military aerospace attendees at this year's Farnborough International Air Show.
A raft of combat aircraft procurements are now underway—including from Brazil and India, a slew of smaller projects in Europe, and prospects in Asia-Pacific. Pending decisions between now and Farnborough 2012 will likely determine the future of some of the West's fourth-generation stable of combat aircraft.
Slated for display at this year's show for the first time is China's Chengdu FC-1/JF-17 light fighter now entering service with the Pakistan air force. The aircraft could provide an attractive low-cost option for a number of states—mainly in Africa—looking to move from obsolete Soviet-era fighters. China also has ambitions in the export arena for the Chengdu J-10, a substantially more capable platform than the JF-17.
Another talking point among the fighter afficionados at the show will be Russia's Sukhoi T-50 prototype, which is now in the initial stages of its flight-test program. Putting aside the ambitious fielding date of 2015, there will be considerable interest in the projected capabilities of the platform, and its associated weapons and systems. Similarly, if to a lesser extent, will be the interest in the Su-35S, potentially the apogee of the single-seat Flanker family. Moscow's military presence at the show, however, is a shadow of its previous participation, as it is now focusing more on regional domestic shows.
The other notable military debut will be in the airlift arena, where the Airbus Military A400M will finally grace the show with its presence. The European multinational effort has had to negotiate technical and political hurdles—however, recent progress in the flight-test program is providing a fillip.
In the combat aircraft arena, India's $11-billion, 126-aircraft fighter procurement is the plum. "This is the big one," says one European industry executive involved in the pitch, though the competition may also require Herculean endurance.
Three European, two U.S. and one Russian manufacturer remain in the fray. The European contenders are the Dassault Rafale, Eurofighter Typhoon and Saab Gripen NG; the U.S. bidders are Boeing and Lockheed Martin with the F/A-18E/F and F-16I, respectively. Russia's MiG is pitching the MiG-35 derivative of the Fulcrum.
Underway since 2008, all six candidate platforms have been evaluated by the Indian air force, and the anticipation is that there will be a "down-select" by the end of 2010.
Down-select there may well be, but there is scant expectation New Delhi will move straight to a final choice. One or more of the candidate platforms could be ruled out, though it is also conceivable that all six will receive further evaluation.
With the emphasis being given to active, electronically scanned array (AESA) radar in the Indian competition and elsewhere, fighter manufacturers and radar houses will also be setting out their respective related stalls at the show. The Eurofighter consortium is close to announcing its development plan for an AESA for the Typhoon, though this will run in parallel with a U.K. national research effort.
It is possible that Brazil's somewhat messy program covering an initial order for 36 aircraft (some contenders believe this could eventually be around 100) could be concluded shortly. Boeing, Dassault and Saab notionally remain in contention, though President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva's September 2009 preemption of the decision in favor of the Rafale undermined the procurement process.
Even if a final decision is taken, it is unlikely the contract can be completed before the general election this October to determine Lula's successor. Some industry executives involved in the competition suggest that the most likely outcome is the decision will be put on hold pending the election.
Political change—or more accurately, upheaval—also continues to affect Japan's F-X fighter procurement to replace the air force's remaining F-4EJ aircraft. The go-ahead for the acquisition program has already been delayed for a number of years and the resignation of Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama in June has added to the holdup. A request for proposals may now have slipped into next year.
Attracting renewed interest in the region is South Korea; its FX-3 fighter procurement could be substantive enough to justify a competition, rather than simply an additional follow-on order of Boeing F-15Ks. Some European industry executives suggest Seoul may be looking for 40-60 aircraft.
Alongside traditional combat platforms, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), unmanned combat air vehicles (UCAV), unmanned air systems (UAS), remotely piloted air systems (RPAS), or the favored nomenclature on the given day, will also be in greater evidence.
Europe is attempting to play catch-up with Washington with regard to medium-altitude long-endurance UAVs. London, Paris and Berlin are all offering collaborative options.
BAE Systems' Mantis and a derivative of EADS's Talarion—dubbed X-UAS—are being proposed to meet the U.K. interest in a medium-altitude long-endurance platform for an armed intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition and reconnaissance requirement, as part of Project Scavenger. As well as an endurance UAV, Scavenger is also considering using low-Earth-orbit satellites as part of the sensor mix.
The significance of the U.K. requirement is that it may provide the catalyst for an Anglo-French collaborative program, with the potential for Italian involvement. EADS has been trying to orchestrate a trinational program for Germany, France and Spain built around Talarion, but so far the potential partners have not funded the endeavor.
What remains at issue is whether European industry would be willing to sustain the costs of developing two medium-altitude long-endurance platforms. Given the comparatively limited number of platforms required, the U.K. has previously indicated it would need 18 air vehicles in this class; it is arguable whether the European market is substantial enough to justify funding two programs. This however, does not take national industrial imperatives into account.
Similar, if slightly longer-term, positioning is also underway for Europe's UCAV efforts. The BAE Systems-led Taranis UCAV demonstrator airframe is nearing completion, while Dassault is the industry prime on the broader European Neuron program.
In the rotary arena, the AgustaWestland AW159 Lynx Wildcat will appear on the static display for the first time. The Wildcat is being developed to meet army and navy requirements, with the first helicopters to enter service with the army in early 2014, and with the navy 12 months later.
The Wildcat has suffered from the vagaries of the U.K. procurement process. It has been delayed and acquisition numbers have been cut. This, however, simply reflects the upheaval in the U.K. military helicopter process that still has not entirely played out.
The latest U.K. program to be affected is the proposal to privatize the military's search-and-rescue helicopter capacity. The Defense Ministry selected the Soteria consortium, comprising CHC, the Royal Bank of Scotland, Thales UK and Sikorsky, in September of last year. In mid-June, however, the recently elected Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition government announced the £4.67-billion ($6.94-billion) project was being suspended. The S-92 helicopter-based bid is being further scrutinized by Treasury officials, with a final decision expected by the end of July.
The extent of the potential impact of the U.K.'s ongoing Strategic Defense and Security Review, due to be released in the fourth quarter of this year, will also garner interest given its potential impact on the domestic industry.
The review encapsulates a challenge now facing the defense-industrial aerospace sector among Western nations. Leading-edge air power does not need to justify its capability, but rather to ensure that it can be afforded in adequate numbers to justify its procurement.
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