Expect a Chinese attack by June/July!

[bhramos]

Colonel Anil Athale (retd)
It is time the ministry of defence got cracking in building up the Indian Army's military capability to face the Chinese threat, warns Colonel Anil Athale (retd).
Last year when this author wrote about a Kargil- style foray by China in the near future, the idea was more in the realm of speculation. But the events of the last few months seem to move the likelihood from the speculative to the possible.
But it seems that New Delhi is in deep slumber or has no time to pay attention to such 'minor' issues like national security when all attention is focused on the upcoming assembly election in Uttar Pradesh.
It is, however, unfair to blame the government alo#8800 even the Opposition is equally busy in its perennial game of one 'UP-manship' and has never effectively taken up the issue of defence preparedness in Parliament.
The media is frivolous as ever and is chasing TRPs; unfortunately there are no TRPs to be gained on defence issues.
This is an attempt by a student of history to give a wake-up call.
Colonel (Dr) Anil Athale (retd) is coordinator of the Pune-based think-tank, Indian Initiative for Peace, Arms-control & Disarmament and co-author of the official history of the 1962 India-China conflict.

Expect a Chinese attack by June/July - Rediff.com News

 

[nrj]

War mongering...................................

Biggest trade partners won't get into full fledged war over a border dispute.

 

[anoop_mig25]

even if it happens congress would in no position to take on slaught because they would like to heave their yuaraj to be crowned as king therefore they would be ready to give bloody nose to chinses rather then timid response of 60`s

 

[Soorya Dhanush]

China cannot wage war that easily .Situation is not that feasible.If it does then Will be a gang war...china will be doomed...

 

[W.G.Ewald]

I like the photo. If Chinese troops clump together like that on the battlefield, it will be easy to target them. :-D

 

[noob101]

We need to stop viewing all of China's actions as being hostile towards India, This isn't Mao's China anymore the leadership now is far from perfect but a lot better than during the 60's...plus the Chinese wont risk a war that they might loose... I agree that the military build up in Tibet could be a threat to India but there are many other reasons why the Chinese might have done it ex. they might have just wanted to get more control over the population of Tibet...

Its like when the Pakistanis always view our military acquisitions as hostile acts them. They seemed to be crying bloody murder when we got the Nepera, but IN got nuclear submarines to show our global power status not necessarily to use it against them. In the same light we should see the PLAN, its modernization and expansion is mainly aimed at the USN not the IN. Most of China's military establishment has the US military on their mind first then India...

This doesn't mean that we should turn our guard down... after all Chinese seem more than happy to supply Pakistan with all kinds of weapons... but we shouldn't be warmongering thinking that Red mass are gathering on our north eastern border to over take India....

 

[trackwhack]

War mongering...................................

Biggest trade partners won't get into full fledged war over a border dispute.

China is our biggest trade partner, we are not China's biggest trade partner. There are no critical resources that China sources from India. I'd always be wary of them.

 

[nrj]

China is our biggest trade partner, we are not China's biggest trade partner. There are no critical resources that China sources from India. I'd always be wary of them.

Who said to become carefree or declare them friendlies?

Added Later: In the coming days, its quite possible that India grabs larger share in chinese imports of agri products. India is one of few countries which can export agri goods to china at cheaper prices.

 

[trackwhack]

Who said to become carefree or declare them friendlies?

I did not mean it to be that way. Rather that there is more reason to be wary of them this year because

1) Leadership Change
2) Economic Difficulties
3) Increasing Tibetan restlessness
4) Waning Chinese advantage on the Arunachal border - if they intend to use force, every day they wait makes their chances more difficult
5) Resolve for good the border row prior to India operationalizing nuke sub and Agni 4 & 5.

Yes, Chinese aggression is unlikely but definitely cannot be ruled out. And their posturing is not helping.

 

[nrj]

I did not mean it to be that way. Rather that there is more reason to be wary of them this year because

1) Leadership Change
2) Economic Difficulties
3) Increasing Tibetan restlessness
4) Waning Chinese advantage on the Arunachal border - if they intend to use force, every day they wait makes their chances more difficult
5) Resolve for good the border row prior to India operationalizing nuke sub and Agni 4 & 5.

Yes, Chinese aggression is unlikely but definitely cannot be ruled out. And their posturing is not helping.

Actually leadership transition phase in CCP can help India prepare itself for adversary from Dragon. I agree that border dispute may lead to conflict but full fledged war is very unlikely.

Resolution of border dispute remains in land trade. Indians need to be realist if they desire settlement imo.

I am yet to figure out if rising Bangguo lobby in CCP is good for India in lorn run or not.

 

[trackwhack]

Wu Bangguo will retire along with the current leadership. Expect nothing.

 

[Payeng]

Even the intelligence were not able to figure out Kargil incursion by Pakistan, but for in case of PRC the press did well in advance

 

[kickok1975]

No wonder Colonel Anil Athale got retired. He is living in fantasy land!

 

[Ray]

No wonder Colonel Anil Athale got retired. He is living in fantasy land!

Col Anil Athale took premature retirement.

Yes, he is a person with very strong views that may not have been shared by many, and he was like that also when he was in the Army.

In the Staff College course, which is a career course and which one enter through an All Army competitive exam and is a very difficult exam, he suddenly half way during the course gave an application that he did not want to pursue the course any further since it was not benefiting him professionally! No one had ever done that!

He is a very interesting chap.

While I wonder if China will attack, yet, I will not dismiss his view perfunctorily.

I believe China will not attack since that will push India firmly into the US camp. That would be to serious disadvantage for China, given that all neighbours of China are up in arms.

That apart, the IA is not quite a pushover as some may believe. And if China attacks this time around, things will be real different and China knows that. China also knows that nukes cannot be used with retaliation!

 

[Bhadra]

No wonder Colonel Anil Athale got retired. He is living in fantasy land!

He was sent home due to pressure from PLA, he being anti Chinese in his views?

Come on, it is the duty of every defence analyst to remind the country to remain fully prepared for war every time and every place. Has PLA been disbanded that there can not be a war? Or have all troops from Tibet been withdrawn ??

 

[kickok1975]

Col Anil Athale took premature retirement.

Yes, he is a person with very strong views that may not have been shared by many, and he was like that also when he was in the Army.

In the Staff College course, which is a career course and which one enter through an All Army competitive exam and is a very difficult exam, he suddenly half way during the course gave an application that he did not want to pursue the course any further since it was not benefiting him professionally! No one had ever done that!

He is a very interesting chap.

While I wonder if China will attack, yet, I will not dismiss his view perfunctorily.

I believe China will not attack since that will push India firmly into the US camp. That would be to serious disadvantage for China, given that all neighbours of China are up in arms.

That apart, the IA is not quite a pushover as some may believe. And if China attacks this time around, things will be real different and China knows that. China also knows that nukes cannot be used with retaliation!

China won't attack India. What's in it for China? Do you think India will attack Pakistan in next 6 months? I don't think so. Some retired officers always regret they missed the "great" war. But come on, no war is better than any great war.

 

[Yusuf]

If an Army officer writes something like this, lend him an ear.

People like him have made sure the government woke up from its slumber and raised mountain divisions, purchased light howitzers, stationed MKIs at the Chinese borders, started upgrading infrastructure in north east.

War may not happen tomorrow but people like the Good Colonel have made sure they pushed the government into taking steps that will stand us in good stead and a 62 will not happen again.

 

[kickok1975]

It would be better for him to say "keep an eye on China and gear up our defense" than speculate that China will attack India in June/July

 

[lemontree]

I will not argue if CHina will attack India or not - I am just curious about the time line mentioned by Col Anil Athale. Why June/ July?
- The monsoon rains will make life miserable for the attacker, landslides cut off roads, rations get destroyed, the rivers are in spate.
- If they use Pak Army, then armour cannot be used due to the soggy ground.
- The June/ July time line gives the IA enough time to recover and counter-attack across the border at a place of own choosing.

- The likely time line would be Oct/ Nov - to hit hard and pull back so that the winter snow blocks the passes and limits the counter-action from IA, preventing any further escalation of the conflict.

 

[Bhadra]

China won't attack India. What's in it for China? Do you think India will attack Pakistan in next 6 months? I don't think so. Some retired officers always regret they missed the "great" war. But come on, no war is better than any great war.

If China has no intention of war, why have they amassed more than a Brigade strength in Northern Pakistan ?? Are they there for sight seeing ..Why PLA strength in Tibet has been made up to 12 Divisions from earlier two Divisions !!

Any answer.