Eurozone Crisis online

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Almost 90% would 'consider moving abroad' for better financial prospects

Nearly nine in 10 Britons would consider leaving the UK for a better - and wealthier - life abroad within the next five years


The current recession combined with the perception that property is cheaper overseas and job prospects better collectively accounted for nearly a third of all reasons for emigrating, according to a survey by Skyscanner.

Almost 90% would 'consider moving abroad' for better financial prospects - Telegraph

I did not know that Finland was so high on the list. Why has this been hidden from the public by our government. They should promote these positive news, instead of all the negstive euro news.

@Ray

@jouni, with reference to the above news, how many % of Finland's population you have in this regard, any positive news? :ranger:

 

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Merkel said Tuesday that full debt sharing would not occur "as long as I live."
June 27, 2012

On the eve of a European summit, German Chancellor Angela Merkel touts tighter budgetary controls and says debt sharing will not occur 'as long as I live.'

BERLIN — As European leaders gather in Brussels on Thursday for a two-day summit aimed at resolving the Eurozone's debt crisis, German Chancellor Angela Merkel's response to the most aggressive proposal pushed by her neighbors is, in essence: Over my dead body.

With borrowing costs for Spain and Italy approaching unsustainable levels, European Union leaders have stepped up their pressure on Germany to accept solutions it has long resisted. But Merkel, whose country has Europe's largest economy and probably will foot the highest share of the bill for rescuing its struggling neighbors, has dug in her heels.

In response to the widespread call for euro bonds, which would allow European countries to issue debt jointly and could ease the cost of borrowing for highly indebted southern European countries, Merkel said Tuesday that full debt sharing would not occur "as long as I live."

A road map issued Tuesday by four senior European officials — European Council President Herman Van Rompuy, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi andJean-Claude Juncker, head of the group of Eurozone finance ministers — laid out a range of proposals for discussion at the summit, including possible moves toward debt sharing.

However, Merkel said Wednesday that the focus should be on tighter budgetary controls across the Eurozone, the 17 nations that share the euro currency.

"I'm afraid that at the summit there will be much too much talk about joint liability and far too little about improved oversight and structural measures," Merkel said in an address to the Bundestag, the lower house ofGermany'sParliament. "Oversight and liability must go hand in hand. There can only be joint liability when adequate oversight is ensured."

Merkel's deputy foreign minister, Michael Georg Link, likewise criticized the road map as a "wish list" that wouldn't win German backing.

Germany is wary of proposals that would allow debt-ridden countries to relieve their burdens without first implementing painful cost-cutting measures, particularly when German taxpayers' money is on the line. But with fear growing that Italy and Spain — the Eurozone's third- and fourth-largest economies, respectively — are fast reaching the point where they cannot sustain their debt, critics say the Merkel administration is not acting with due haste.

"In Germany, the feeling of urgency is still not strong enough," said Sebastian Dullien, a Berlin-based economist and senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

In Madrid, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy told lawmakers that the cost of borrowing since Spain recently requested a bailout for its banks has climbed so steeply that the nation might not be able to finance itself much longer through debt.

"We can't keep funding ourselves for too long at the prices we're currently paying," Rajoy said. The summit may yield agreement on a number of small measures to ease the continent's debt crisis, such as removing the so-called preferred creditor status of the Eurozone's permanent bailout fund in order to reassure other lenders to struggling countries that they would get their money back. Germany appears open to the idea, at least for Spain.

But few expect progress at the summit on more decisive measures to reassure nervous investors, such as debt sharing. Dullien considers it unlikely that Germany will consent to the major controversial proposals of the road map.

Germany leader opposes full debt sharing in Eurozone crisis - Los Angeles Times

 

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Income inequality growing faster in UK than any other rich country

Top 10% have incomes 12 times greater than bottom 10%, up from eight times greater in 1985, thinktank's study reveals

Income inequality among working-age people has risen faster in Britain than in any other rich nation since the mid-1970s, according to a report by the OECD.

The thinktank says the gap has come about due to the rise of a financial services elite who, through education and marriage, have concentrated wealth into the hands of a tiny minority.

Economists from the group, which is funded by developed-world taxpayers, say the annual average income in the UK of the top 10% in 2008 was just under £55,000, about 12 times higher than that of the bottom 10%, who had an average income of £4,700. :coffee:

This is up from a ratio of eight to one in 1985 and significantly higher than the average income gap in developed nations of nine to one.

However, the report makes clear that even in countries viewed as "fairer" – such as Germany, Denmark and Sweden – this pay gap between rich and poor is expanding: from five to one in the 1980s to six to one today. In the rising powers of Brazil, Russia, India and China, the ratio is an alarming 50 to one.

The OECD warned about the rise of the top 1% in rich societies and the falling share of income going to poorer people.

This trend is especially pronounced in Britain, where the dramatic rise in inequality has been fuelled by the creation of a super-rich class. The share of the top 1% of income earners increased from 7.1% in 1970 to 14.3% in 2005.:ranger:

Just prior to the global recession, the OECD says the very top of British society – the 0.1% of highest earners – accounted for a remarkable 5% of total pre-tax income, a level of wealth hoarding not seen since the second world war.

At the same time as accumulating great wealth, the rich have seen tax rates fall. The top marginal income tax rate dropped from 60% in the 1980s to 40% in the 2000s, before its recent increase to 50%.

The buildup of riches was partly economic: the higher-paid worked longer. Since the mid-1980s, annual hours of low-wage workers remained stable at around 1,050, while those of high-wage workers rose almost 10% to 2,450 hours.

But the concentration of resources in the highest rungs of Britain's society was also a social phenomenon. Unlike in many other nations, the earnings gap between the wives of rich and poor husbands in Britain has grown from £3,900 in 1987 to £10,200 in 2004.

Although the OECD figures stop just before the recession, experts say the trend continued into the downturn.

Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies said that in the UK "2009-10 incomes went up incredibly fast (at the top end) possibly because the new top rate of tax was coming in".

He pointed out that the growth in the City and bankers' bonuses had played a large part in creating this divide. "If you look at who is racing away, then half the top 1% of high earners work in financial services," he said.

He cited the research of Mark Stewart, a professor of economics at Warwick University, who has shown that "almost all the increase in inequality has come from financial services" in the past 12 years.

Such disparities, the thinktank said, could not be blamed on globalisation but a trend in labour and social policies in rich nations that had helped the wealthy.

Although spending on public services in Britain had gone up in the past decade, at the same time benefits to the poor were worth less and taxes were less redistributive.

The effect has been a dramatic weakening in the state's ability to spread wealth throughout society. From the mid-70s to mid-80s, the tax-benefit system offset more than 50% of the rise in income inequality. It now manages just 20%.

The OECD warned of sweeping consequences for rich societies – and pointed to the rash of occupations and protests, especially by young people, around the world. "Youths who see no future for themselves feel increasingly disenfranchised. They have now been joined by protesters who believe they are bearing the brunt of a crisis for which they have no responsibility, while people on higher incomes appeared to be spared," the OECD said.

It was a paradox, said the OECD, that such moves had not been grounded in popular support. Michael Förster, author of the OECD's Divided We Stand report, said: "In almost all countries apart from the US and Japan, more than 50% of people say that inequality is too high. In the UK, it is 65% so I think everyone agrees it is a problem."

To rebalance society "for the 99%", the authors call for a series of measures focusing on job creation, "increased redistributive effects" and "freely accessible and high-quality public services in education, health and family care".

When it was pointed out that British government plans would instead lead to public sector job cuts of 710,000, more child poverty and a hike in university fees, the OECD's authors said debt was an issue for governments but urged them "not to cut social investments".

Monika Queisser, the head of OECD's social policy division, said: "The OECD agreed that fiscal consolidation was important. We want to governments to see social expenditures as investment so we would want to see, say, early years [funding] rising."

Income inequality growing faster in UK than any other rich country, says OECD | Society | The Guardian

 

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Switzerland arming in preparation for European meltdown
12 October, 2012

The Swiss Army is preparing contingency plans for violent unrest across Europe. A nation mostly famous for its banks, watches and chocolate fears it may face a massive influx of European refugees in the near future.:ranger: @Ray

One of the world's richest nations openly expressed concerns over the possible outcome of Europe's continuing financial troubles, and is currently conducting army exercises against the possibility of riots along its borders.

In September, the Swiss military conducted exercises dubbed 'Stabilo Due,' with scenarios involving violent instability across the EU.

Switzerland has maintained an avowedly neutral stance for decades, and refused to join the eurozone when presented with the opportunity.

Bern's biggest fear is likely the disorganization of neighboring nations' armies that would follow general instability; the eurozone crisis and the severe austerity measures in the EU are forcing member-states to significantly slash their military budgets. If protest continues to spread across Europe, police and armed forces may find themselves ill-equipped to manage the unrest.

"I will not rule out that we will need the army in the coming years," Swiss Defense Minister Ueli Maurer said last Sunday.

The Swiss Defense Ministry has pressed ahead to modernize the country's army despite political opposition. With its multibillion-Franc military budget and an army of around 200,000 soldiers, the country also plans to purchase new 'Saab Gripen' jet fighters.

"Minister Maurer, accompanied by whispers from the top uniformed leadership in Switzerland, is trying to raise awareness that Europe's massive fiscal-cum-political crisis could get very unpleasant," John R. Schindler, a professor of national security affairs at the US Naval War College wrote in an article for the XX Committee website.

The Chief of the Swiss Armed Forces, Lieutenant General André Blattmann, likewise revealed plans to deploy an additional four battalions of military police (1,600 soldiers) to protect strategic points across the country. Blattmann is expected to present the plan in December.

Professor Schindler predicts that, "if the next Anders Brievik were to target Muslims, not fellow Europeans, things could get unimaginably ugly very quickly," which could trigger widespread Muslim uprisings in Europe.

Switzerland, however, stands in stark opposition to the multicultural policies and thinking now common in other European nations. In 2009, Switzerland passed a national referendum banning the construction of Islamic minarets . :ranger:

And while the global economic crisis has forced several European nations to cut military expenditures, Switzerland has maintained relatively consistent levels of defense spending.

Switzerland arming in preparation for European meltdown? — RT News

 

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Nationwide Spanish protests turn violent
20 July, 2012

Spanish police have clashed with protesters who marched against the latest batch of austerity measures. Over a million public employees, trade union members and fed-up citizens have taken to the streets in over 80 Spanish cities.

*Violence erupted in Madrid around midnight. Police used rubber bullets and tear gas to disperse the crowd as it tried to reach the congress building. In some more urban areas, activists set garbage containers on fire and tried to block police vehicle access. No injuries or arrests have been reported.

In Barcelona, similar scenes were reported. About a dozen protesters were arrested there, outside the local parliament building.

*Demonstrators carried flags and banners decorated with scissors, symbolizing the country's harsh spending cuts. The streets of Madrid were paralyzed by the boundless crowds of people.

The protests were organized by unions, who have been outraged by the government's new measures – which include an elimination of Christmas bonuses for civil servants.

Earlier Thursday, Spanish Parliament approved a new package of spending cuts and tax hikes aiming to save $80 billion in a bid to take a bite out of the budget deficit. Since the measure was announced last week, Spain has witnessed a series of daily demonstrations, some of which have erupted into violence. :ranger:

Europe's fourth-largest economy also has the EU's highest unemployment rate. About a quarter of working-age Spaniards are unable to find work.

Meanwhile, Germany's lower house approved a $122 billion rescue package for Spanish banks in a bid to help the country cope with "excessive" market fears and prevent the eurozone's debt crisis from spreading further.

Spain, Madrid: Riot policemen remain on a street of Madrid during a protest against the Spanish government's latest austerity measures, on July 19, 2012.

Spain, Madrid : people demonstrate against the Spanish government's latest austerity measures in the center of Madrid on July 19, 2012

Protesters march during a demonstration against government austerity measures, in central Valencia

Demonstrators fill Madrid's Puerta del Sol square during a protest against government austerity measures. (REUTERS / Sergio Perez)

Firefighters pose naked in front of a banner during a demonstration against government cuts inside their fire station in Mieres (REUTERS / Eloy Alonso

Firemen participate in a protest against government austerity measures in Barcelona.(REUTERS / Albert Gea)

Spanish rallies turn violent as million people protest in 80 cities (VIDEO, PHOTOS) — RT News

 

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Five million paid less than living wage
29 October 2012

One in five workers in the UK is paid less than required for a basic standard of living, a report has said.

The proportion is much higher among waiters and bar staff, at up to 90% of workers, the research for accountants KPMG suggested.

It said that nearly five million people failed to command the living wage - a pay packet that enabled a basic standard of living.

BBC News - Five million paid less than living wage, says KPMG

 

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Almost 90% would 'consider moving abroad' for better financial prospects

Nearly nine in 10 Britons would consider leaving the UK for a better - and wealthier - life abroad within the next five years


The current recession combined with the perception that property is cheaper overseas and job prospects better collectively accounted for nearly a third of all reasons for emigrating, according to a survey by Skyscanner.

Sam Baldwin, Skyscanner's travel editor, said: "For many people the idea of 'living the dream' abroad is very alluring. The survey revealed that our perception of life abroad is very positive – perhaps overly so – and many people come back from a holiday enamoured with their destination. Interestingly, Spain and USA were two of the most popular places even though both countries are currently suffering from their own economic problems, which suggests that the dream of moving abroad to improve financial prospects may be just that - a dream.

The dream may be more realistic if, rather than moving abroad to look for new work, you are sent abroad as part of an existing job. Around 750,000 British workers are being posted abroad on assignments with their existing employer, and a massive 84 per cent believe this is helping them to climb the corporate ladder, according to the NatWest International Personal Banking (IPB) Quality of Life Index. :ranger:

They also feel they benefit from an improved lifestyle, backing up the Skyscanner research results, and the increasing use of temporary global workers means that the traditional definition of 'expat' is now being blurred, said Dave Isley, head of NatWest International Personal Banking.

He added: "The growth of the global worker has brought with it an opportunity to share knowledge and experience around the world. The great brain exchange is a fantastic concept of other economies temporarily sharing the strengths of British workers.

Almost 90% would 'consider moving abroad' for better financial prospects - Telegraph

Argentina opens doors to migrants, but settling elsewhere is harder

As growing numbers of Europeans leave the continent and its economic woes, how easy is it to go and live in a new country?

Ipanema beach in Rio de Janeiro. Some European immigrants work in Brazil illegally by repeatedly renewing 90-day tourist visas. :ranger:

Argentina opens doors to migrants, but settling elsewhere is harder | World news | theguardian.com

 

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@jouni @W.G.Ewald @Ray

as discussed in the news of the above post#47, "yes, settling in the Slum of Brazil is easier."

 

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World Bank data suggest that the UK is a net remittance-receiver

The UK is a receiver as well as a sender of remittances. As shown in Figure 1, the World Bank estimates suggest that since the mid-1990s the UK has been a net-remittance receiver. The main countries from which remittances are sent to the UK include Australia, the United States and Canada (World Bank 2010). Real remittance inflows (inflation adjusted) for the UK have increased by an annual average of 6% since 1989, reaching close to GBP 4,647 million in 2009. However, these inflows represent a small share of the UK GDP (about 0.3% in 2009). The UK occupies the fourteenth place in the world in value of remittances received and the sixth place in Europe.

From 1989 to 2009, remittance outflows from the UK increased by an annual average of about 4% in real terms, reaching close to GBP 2,352 million in 2009.

The UK accounted for around 7% of annual remittances to Bangladesh in 2010 (about GBP 533 million) and about 10% of annual remittances to Pakistan during that year (about GBP 627 million) :ranger:

Bangladesh and Pakistan occupy the seventh and eleventh positions respectively in terms of the global inflow of remittances

Migrant Remittances to and from the UK | The Migration Observatory

 

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Net Migration from Mexico Falls to Zero—and Perhaps Less
BY JEFFREY S. PASSEL, D'VERA COHN AND ANA GONZALEZ-BARRERA

The largest wave of immigration in history from a single country to the United States has come to a standstill. After four decades that brought 12 million current immigrants—most of whom came illegally—the net migration flow from Mexico to the United States has stopped and may have reversed, according to a new analysis of government data from both countries by the Pew Hispanic Center, a project of the Pew Research Center.

The standstill appears to be the result of many factors, including the weakened U.S. job and housing construction markets, heightened border enforcement, a rise in deportations, the growing dangers associated with illegal border crossings, the long-term decline in Mexico's birth rates and broader economic conditions in Mexico.

It is possible that the Mexican immigration wave will resume as the U.S. economy recovers. Even if it doesn't, it has already secured a place in the record books. The U.S. today has more immigrants from Mexico alone—12.0 million—than any other country in the world has from all countries of the world.1 Some 30% of all current U.S. immigrants were born in Mexico. The next largest sending country—China (including Hong Kong and Taiwan)—accounts for just 5% of the nation's current stock of about 40 million immigrants.

Looking back over the entire span of U.S. history, no country has ever seen as many of its people immigrate to this country as Mexico has in the past four decades. However, when measured not in absolute numbers but as a share of the immigrant population at the time, immigration waves from Germany and Ireland in the late 19th century equaled or exceeded the modern wave from Mexico.

Beyond its size, the most distinctive feature of the modern Mexican wave has been the unprecedented share of immigrants who have come to the U.S. illegally. Just over half (51%) of all current Mexican immigrants are unauthorized, and some 58% of the estimated 11.2 million unauthorized immigrants in the U.S. are Mexican (Passel and Cohn, 2011).

The sharp downward trend in net migration from Mexico began about five years ago and has led to the first significant decrease in at least two decades in the unauthorized Mexican population. As of 2011, some 6.1 million unauthorized Mexican immigrants were living in the U.S., down from a peak of nearly 7 million in 2007, according to Pew Hispanic Center estimates based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Over the same period, the population of authorized immigrants from Mexico rose modestly, from 5.6 million in 2007 to 5.8 million in 2011. :ranger:

The net standstill in Mexican-U.S. migration flows is the result of two opposite trend lines that have converged in recent years. During the five-year period from 2005 to 2010, a total of 1.4 million Mexicans immigrated to the United States, down by more than half from the 3 million who had done so in the five-year period of 1995 to 2000. Meantime, the number of Mexicans and their children who moved from the U.S. to Mexico between 2005 and 2010 rose to 1.4 million, roughly double the number who had done so in the five-year period a decade before. While it is not possible to say so with certainty, the trend lines within this latest five-year period suggest that return flow to Mexico probably exceeded the inflow from Mexico during the past year or two. @W.G.Ewald

Of the 1.4 million people who migrated from the U.S. to Mexico since 2005, including about 300,000 U.S.-born children, most did so voluntarily, but a significant minority were deported and remained in Mexico. Firm data on this phenomenon are sketchy, but Pew Hispanic Center estimates based on government data from both countries suggest that 5% to 35% of these returnees may not have moved voluntarily.

In contrast to the decrease of the Mexican born, the U.S. immigrant population from all countries has continued to grow and numbered 39.6 million in 2011, according to the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey.

In addition, the number of Mexican-Americans in the U.S.—both immigrants and U.S.-born residents of Mexican ancestry—is continuing to rise. The Mexican-American population numbered 33 million in 2010.2 As reported previously (Pew Hispanic Center, 2011), between 2000 and 2010 births surpassed immigration as the main reason for growth of the Mexican-American population.

The population of Mexican-born residents of the U.S. is larger than the population of most countries or states. Among Mexican-born people worldwide, one-in-ten lives in the United States.

This report has five additional sections. The next section analyzes statistics on migration between Mexico and the United States from data sources in both countries. The third uses mainly Mexican data to examine characteristics, experience and future intentions of Mexican migrants handed over to Mexican authorities by U.S. law enforcement agencies. The fourth, based on U.S. data, examines trends in border enforcement statistics. The fifth looks at changing conditions in Mexico that might affect migration trends. The report's last section looks at characteristics of Mexican-born immigrants in the U.S., using U.S. Census Bureau data. The appendix explains the report's methodology and data sources.

Net Migration from Mexico Falls to Zero—and Perhaps Less | Pew Research Center's Hispanic Trends Project

 

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Net A8 migration down 88 per cent
NOVEMBER 26, 2009

Net migration to the UK from the eight European Union accession countries fell to just 9,000 last year – down from a peak of 78,000 in 2007. The figures, released today, show that overall net migration was down 70,000 to 163,000 – the lowest figure since A8 Accession. :ranger:

Migrants from Estonia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia accounted for just five per cent of net migration last year, dealing a blow to the likes of UKIP and MigrationWatch who obsess over the numbers of east Europeans coming to Britain.

The contribution A8 nationals make to the economy is clear: The employment rate amongst working age males born in A8 countries is 91 per cent – the highest of any nationality,:thumb: the majority of those working in 'Elementary occupations' (35 per cent), as 'Process, plant and machine operatives' and in 'Skilled trades occupations', though they fail to earn as much as UK born workers.

The headline figure from today's Office For National Statistics release was that emigration hit a "record high" of 427,000, of which 255,000 were non-British, a rise of 86,000 overall.

Net A8 migration down 88 per cent | Left Foot Forward

 

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Future Migration Flows from Eastern Europe

Summary
1. The recent fall in the number of migrants arriving from Eastern European members of the EU has led to suggestions that the immigration problem is on the way to solution. That is far from the case. This paper confirms that Eastern European immigration is likely to come approximately into balance in three or four years. However most immigration is from non EU countries; these are countries from which immigration could be restricted if it were government policy to do so.

How many have come?
2. It is difficult to estimate the true extent of net immigration from Eastern Europe since 2004. The coverage of the International passenger Survey (IPS) has not covered all the points of arrival. Furthermore, it asks questions, on a voluntary basis, about intentions. It is quite possible that intentions will change, especially as freedom of movement within the EU encourages people to come to the UK on a 'trial' basis. In the 12 months to June 2008 only 11% of registered workers said they would stay for a year or more but this seems a very low figure.

3. The Workers Registration Scheme records arrivals but, anecdotally, a significant number are unwilling to pay the £90 registration fee. Nor does it include the self employed, nor dependants who arrive after initial registration. Critically, it gives no information about departures. :ranger:

4. An alternative would be to look at the Labour Force Survey to see what proportion the rise in the stock of A8/A2 nationals is of the rise in all foreign nationals between Q1 2004 and Q42007. This yields 45% or roughly one in two. However, it would be wrong to compare stocks of foreign nationals because non-EU nationals become British citizens and EU nationals generally don't. So, if you compare stock, much of the inflow of new non-EU migrants would be offset by the reduction in existing non-EU foreign national caused by these nationals becoming British citizens. For example, in 2007- 5,880 EEA citizens were given nationality compared with 158,775 non-EEA citizens; the stock of foreign citizens would be reduced accordingly.

5. According to the official (IPS ) figures, net East European migration between 2004-2006 totalled 181,000 out of total net foreign immigration of 960,000 =19% or for 2006 alone it was 71,000 out of 316,000 = 22%. This may be an underestimate for the reasons given above. A further approach would be to take unofficial estimates (by the IPPR) that half have gone home, leaving 500,000 still in the UK; dividing this by four gives 125,000 a year. In 2006 the IPS figure was only 71,000 so 54,000 should be added to net foreign immigration, bringing it to 370,000. This suggests that Eastern European immigration has accounted for about one third of net foreign immigration since 2004.
How many will come in future?

6. Net migration flows into the UK from the countries which acceded to the EU in May 2004 (the A8 countries) will be a factor of:

The levels of gross immigration flows
The length of time migrants remain in the UK.

7. Both of these factors will in turn be largely driven by the following:

The relative economic levels of the UK and the Eastern European economies
Unemployment levels, especially in the East European countries
Demographics
The policy of other EU countries towards the admission of east European workers
These factors are discussed in more detail below.

Economic levels of UK and Eastern European economies
8. The following graph plots the number of workers who have registered on the UK Workers Registration Scheme per head of population against the GDP per head (in dollars) for the eight Eastern European countries which joined the EU in May 2004. This shows that GDP is a major determinant of the rates of migration to the UK:

9. The four countries which have the highest registration rates are Poland, Slovakia, Latvia and Lithuania (in ascending order). Poland, which is the source of the highest number of registrations overall, has an estimated GDP per head (on a purchasing power parity basis) of $14,400 compared with the UK's $31,800. Its growth rate in 2006 was 6.1% compared with the UK's 2.8%. It can expect to continue to witness rapid economic growth resulting from the introduction of a free market economy, the benefits of being part of the EU free trade area and substantial funding from the EU. Assuming that Poland continues to grow at a rate of say 2.5% above the UK rate it would take about 12 years for Poland's GDP per head to reach a level (of $19,000) at which migration rates may be expected to halve (based on the above trend line).

10. The effect of a rising GDP on emigration has already been seen with Portugal and Greece. They have GDP's per capita of $19,800 and $24,000 respectively, well below the UK's level of $31,800 but sufficiently high to have resulted in low levels of net migration to the UK from these countries.

Unemployment
11. Clearly unemployment in Eastern Europe could be a driver of emigration from these countries. In 2006 the unemployment rate in Poland was 14.9%. It is now about 10% as the economy grows and as the number of workers in Poland is reduced by emigration. Unemployment is therefore unlikely to be such a strong driver of emigration as it has been in the past. However, graduate unemployment could remain high.

Demographics
12. 82% of all the registered workers from May 2004 to June 2008 from the A8 countries were in the age group 18-34. The age profile of registered workers has remained remarkably consistent with just a very slightly lower percentage (79%) of 18-34 year olds registering in Q2 2008. It is likely that, after over 4 years of access to the UK labour market a large percentage of those who are likely to come to the UK will already have decided to do so. Most of this population will also have had friends and family who have moved to the UK and will have provided feedback which will have helped to crystallise decisions as to whether to move to the UK. :ranger:

13. The number of young people who are reaching an age at which they might decide to move to the UK is rapidly declining. In Poland, for instance, the population of 18 year olds will fall from 600,000 in 2005 to 400,000 in 2016[1].

EU policies
14. Nine countries of the EU have now opened their labour markets to the A8. The other 6, notably France, Germany and Austria must open their labour markets from May 2011 at the latest. It is likely that this will cause some reduction in the number of East Europeans seeking work in the UK. However, the UK may remain the preferred destination for most Poles because of English being the preferred language in the Polish educational system and because of the strong ties which will exist with the UK as a result of the high numbers of Poles already here.

The likely number of arrivals
15. It is impossible to be sure but it seems likely that the combination of the economic and demographic factors sketched out above and the full opening of EU labour markets will lead to a significant fall in migration from the A8 countries to the UK. Our guess is that the number of workers from the A8 registering to work in the UK will follow the pattern below.

Length of stay of migrant workers

16. Both the official migration statistics and the workers registration scheme (WRS) statistics point to the majority of A8 migrants staying for only a short period of time. Answers given under the WRS suggest that 61% of workers will stay for less than 3 months with a further 9% staying for up to 2 years. Only 7% said they intended to stay for more than 2 years with 24% saying they did not know.

17. Anecdotal evidence would suggest that a much greater percentage than this are in fact staying in the UK. This was supported by a survey carried out by ARC Market and Opinion, a Warsaw based market research firm, which found that only 45% of Poles surveyed planned to go home within 4 years. A further 45% said that they would stay at least 5 years and 10% said they would settle in Britain for good.

18. We have used this survey as the basis of our calculation but have also assumed that:

A significant proportion of those who plan to leave in the first four years will be seasonal workers and will leave within a year of arriving in Britain.
Many of those who stay for 10 years or more will remain in the UK permanently even if this is not their intention initially.

19. This leads to the following assumptions regarding rate at which East Europeans will leave the UK:

25% in the year of arrival
5% in each of years 1 to 4 inclusive.
4% in each of years 5 to 9 inclusive.
This makes a total of 65% who will leave within 10 years of arriving in the UK with the remaining 35% staying permanently.

Probable net immigration
20. The following graph shows the likely inflows and outflows of A8 citizens using the assumptions about inflows and lengths of stay described above. For the number of arrivals we have used the numbers of actual and projected registered workers in paragraph 10 and added 20% to it as an estimate of the number of self-employed workers (who do not have to register on the WRS) and a further 25% to the combined total to allow for dependants. (The latter figure is higher than the number of dependants recorded in the WRS which was just 7% in 2004 increasing to 17% in Q2 2008. Our figure of 25% allows for dependants joining after the registered worker has become established in the UK).

21. As can be seen from the above this would point to net migration flows of A8 citizens into and out of the UK being brought broadly into balance from 2010 with a small net outflow in the following 3 years. :thumb: Any outflow would probably be offset, in time, by an inflow from Romania and Bulgaria which will enjoy full access to the UK labour market from January 2014. Inflows from these two countries are, however, likely to be relatively low because other countries have opened their labour markets to them before the UK and the two countries will have full labour market access to all EU countries in 2014. Anecdotal evidence also suggests that southern European nations are the preferred destination of migrants from these countries.

Notes
Eurostat 2004 medium variant

MigrationWatchUK | 4.8 : Future Migration Flows from Eastern Europe

 

[santosh10]

Real remittance inflows (inflation adjusted) for the UK have increased by an annual average of 6% since 1989, reaching close to GBP 4,647 million in 2009. However, these inflows represent a small share of the UK GDP (about 0.3% in 2009). The UK occupies the fourteenth place in the world in value of remittances received and the sixth place in Europe.

From 1989 to 2009, remittance outflows from the UK increased by an annual average of about 4% in real terms, reaching close to GBP 2,352 million in 2009.

The UK accounted for around 7% of annual remittances to Bangladesh in 2010 (about GBP 533 million) and about 10% of annual remittances to Pakistan during that year (about GBP 627 million) :ranger:

Bangladesh and Pakistan occupy the seventh and eleventh positions respectively in terms of the global inflow of remittances :ranger:

Migrant Remittances to and from the UK | The Migration Observatory

MigrationWatchUK | 4.8 : Future Migration Flows from Eastern Europe

@Ray

A8 countries and Western Europe, the future's immigration trend

sir, the major positive outcome of EU's economic fall is the reverse trend of immigrants, specially from the Eastern European countries (A8 countries). and as this trend is more consistent, we would see further news in this regard in future......

here, as per the above news confirming UK receiving remittances, more than twice to what goes out from UK, so we hope Western European countries like UK to be more beneficial in future because of this reverse trend :ranger:

here, how do you see half of the remittances outflow from UK going to just 2 countries, Pakistan+Bangladesh. while we find them the poorest community living in UK at present?

the community which is the highest dependent on Social Security, send half of the remittance out from UK????

(total remittances outflow from UK at GBP 2,352 million in 2009, and to Bangladesh about GBP 533 million and to Pakistan during that year at about GBP 627 million.)

75% of Pakistani and Bangladeshi Children "Live in Poverty"

http://www.bnp.org.uk/news/how-immi...stani-and-bangladeshi-children-“live-poverty”

Risk of poverty is unevenly spread in terms of region, ethnicity, household structure and disability status. Over half (52%) of Pakistanis and Bangladeshis are in relative poverty, while children living in families with at least one disabled member have a 29% chance of living in poverty, compared with 20% for those living in families with no disabled member. The additional costs associated with (religious) disability mean that a narrow focus on incomes does not fully capture the levels of disadvantage experienced

http://webcache.googleusercontent.c...-poverty-report.pdf+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=in

 

[santosh10]

UK sees Reverse in migration trend from EU

For the first time more Eastern European migrants, from countries like Poland, Latvia and the Czech Republic, are leaving the UK than arriving, according to Home Office figures published this week.

The trend marks a reversal in movement for the first time since large-scale immigration in Europe began in 2004 when the A8, or accession eight, countries joined the EU.

The then Immigration Minister famously estimated number of Eastern Europeans who would come to the UK was just 13,000. Since 2004 around 1,000,000 people have migrated from the former eastern bloc nations, the biggest movement in peacetime history.
But last year 45,000 A8 nationals arrived, compared with 57,000 departures.

The new EU members include Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and Slovenia.

The overall net UK migration figure – the number of immigrants minus numbers emigrating – for the 12 months ending in September 2009 was 142,000, down from 160,000 for the same period the previous year.

The data comes from the International Passenger Survey of long-term international migration, a broad guide to migration movements.

The figures do not take into account adjustments for asylum seekers, people who stay longer or less than intended, and migration to and from Northern Ireland.

UK sees reverse in migration trend from EU

 

[Ray]

@santosh 10,

Carry on with your debate with calling the attention of others by doing a @xyz.

If someone wishes to comment, then he will do it without any drawing of attention.

Thank you.

 

[santosh10]

1. The recent fall in the number of migrants arriving from Eastern European members of the EU has led to suggestions that the immigration problem is on the way to solution.

MigrationWatchUK | 4.8 : Future Migration Flows from Eastern Europe

we find a silver line on the fall of EU's economies, mainly on the side of solution of their immigration problem. the reserve trend of immigrants, and the consistency it has, would simply help UK/Britain regain their original identity. but the main problem of UK is the growing number of Muslims, which itself has a consistent rise in their population....

Population of Muslims rising at the speed of more than 10 times to rest of the people in UK. hence, with decline of the East European population, I don't see UK helping itself on the side of immigration problem.

only fall of Mexican born people in US, is something going to benefit US in future, true :thumb:

 

[santosh10]

double post

 

[santosh10]

Eurozone's Drop in Inflation Carries More Fears of Another Recession
September 30, 2014

FRANKFURT — The drop in eurozone inflation reported Tuesday was, in one sense, just a decimal point, another digit in the daily flow of depressing economic data. Yet it raised an increasingly urgent question: What will it take to arrest the Continent's slow-motion descent toward another recession and, possibly, a renewed existential crisis? :ranger:

It has been almost two years since inflation in the eurozone was at 2 percent, right around the level that the European Central Bank considers optimal for stability and growth. In September, according to an official estimate published Tuesday, the annual rate of inflation fell to 0.3 percent from 0.4 percent the month before.

Inflation is at a five-year low, leading many economists to warn that the eurozone economy is in danger of officially tipping into deflation. But even the current low level of inflation can cause consumers to delay making purchases, companies to lose revenue and unemployment to soar from already high levels.

Joblessness in the 18 countries in the zone remained at 11.5 percent in August, the European Union's statistics office, Eurostat, also reported on Tuesday. Nearly one out of four youths in the eurozone is jobless.

The figures came two days before the European Central Bank is scheduled to discuss monetary policy, and they are sure to increase calls for more aggressive stimulus action. But analysts are nearly unanimous that none will be coming when the central bank's governing council convenes in Naples on Thursday during one of its twice-yearly road trips outside Frankfurt.

The central bank faces an array of obstacles preventing it from undertaking the same kind of broad-based asset purchases that the United States Federal Reserve and the Bank of England have used to revive their economies.

Since the financial crisis began in 2008, so-called quantitative easing has become a standard weapon in the central banking arsenal, except in the eurozone. That is true even though the central bank has consistently underestimated the severity of the decline in inflation.

Mario Draghi, the central bank president, remains constrained by divisions on its governing council, the fragmented structure of the eurozone financial system, and political resistance in Germany.

The central bank has offered banks four-year loans that are practically interest-free in an effort to restart lending, and it plans to begin buying private-sector assets in October. Mr. Draghi has promised to offer more details on the asset purchases on Thursday.

Purchases of government bonds, an essential component of full-blown quantitative easing, remains taboo for many Germans, who regard it as a way of transferring wealth from richer countries to poorer ones. They fear that, if any countries defaulted on their debts, the central bank would pass on the losses to other member countries.

"That's the big question — if the E.C.B. can deliver something substantial," said Zsolt Darvas, a senior fellow at Bruegel, a research organization in Brussels. "My theory is that they won't."

Continue reading the main story
To be sure, inflation could pick up in the coming months because of the decline in the value of the euro, which on Tuesday sank below $1.26 for the first time since September 2012. A weak euro makes imported fuel and other goods more expensive for residents of the eurozone and contributes to higher inflation.

Slumping energy prices were one reason for the decline in inflation in September. But there was also a decline in the so-called core inflation rate, which excludes prices for food and energy because they tend to fluctuate often. Core inflation fell to 0.7 percent from 0.9 percent, Eurostat said.

The decline in that rate is potentially more worrying for the central bank because it is a more direct reflection of slack demand and the poor health of the eurozone economy.

"The E.C.B. will hardly be pleased at the outlook of very low inflation rate for a longer period of time," Christoph Weil, an economist at Commerzbank, said in a note to clients.

The decline in the overall inflation rate to 0.3 percent was a preliminary estimate by Eurostat. The figure, which could be revised, was in line with analysts' expectations but still well below the bank's target of just under 2 percent.

The decline in consumer prices has been greater than the central bank expected. As recently as March, central bank economists forecast that inflation this year would average 1 percent. In June, they lowered the forecast to 0.7 percent, and in September, to 0.6 percent.

Gains in recent state elections by a conservative anti-euro party, the Alternative for Germany, could make the central bank even more cautious in the coming months. More aggressive monetary policy might nourish support for populist right-wing parties in Europe, which have fed on resentment toward European institutions like the bank.

"The E.C.B. is ready to do everything but buy government bonds," Joachim Fels, chief global economist at Morgan Stanley, said last week during a meeting with a small group of journalists. "That shows how great the resistance is to this normal and widely used measure."

To return to meaningful growth, economists say, the eurozone probably needs a combination of measures, including more-powerful stimulus from the central bank, like government bond buying; more government spending by countries that can afford it, like Germany; and deep changes in the regulations that govern business and labor in France and Italy.

The European Central Bank is preparing to buy so-called asset-backed securities, bank loans that have been bundled for resale on financial markets. It also plans to buy covered bonds, which are similar. The purchases are seen as a preliminary form of quantitative easing and a way to arrest a decline in bank lending.

By selling off existing loans, banks would raise money to issue new ones. But analysts doubt that the central bank would be able to find enough asset-backed securities and covered bonds that meet its quality standards and allow it to achieve the larger goal — pumping more money into the eurozone economy.

The region registered zero growth in the second quarter, threatening to interrupt a tentative decline in joblessness.

Although the unemployment rate in the eurozone was unchanged at 11.5 percent, the absolute number of jobless people fell by 137,000 to 18.3 million, Eurostat said. The incremental decline suggests that unemployment will fall in the coming months but at a painfully slow pace.

"We continue to expect only a modest and gradual fall in unemployment rate in the coming quarters," analysts at Barclays said in a note to clients.

As in previous months, Greece and Spain had the highest unemployment rates, with 27 percent and 24.4 percent. In both countries, though, the rate has been edging slowly downward. The rate for Greece is from June, the most recent reported.

Austria, with 4.7 percent, and Germany, with 4.9 percent, had the lowest unemployment rates in August.

Unemployment among those under age 25 remained at 23.3 percent in the eurozone. In Greece and Spain, the jobless rate among youths remained above 50 percent, while in Italy and Croatia, it was over 40 percent.

Mr. Draghi has emphasized in recent weeks that he cannot solve such economic problems alone. He has pleaded with eurozone leaders to cut taxes and red tape and to remove impediments to entrepreneurship and hiring.

"No monetary — and also no fiscal — stimulus can ever have a meaningful effect without such structural reforms," he told members of the European Parliament on Sept. 22.

Indeed, there is evidence that bank lending is held back not by a shortage of credit but by a dearth of creditworthy borrowers who are confident enough about the future to want to invest in new employees and in expanding their businesses.

"There is no demand, because nobody is doing anything," said Stefano Micossi, director general of Assonime, an Italian business group. "Everybody is waiting."

nytimes.com/2014/10/01/business/international/eurozone-inflation-falls-but-unemployment-remains-steady-data-show.html

 

[santosh10]

Any New 2008 type Recession would make a Difference in World

it was always good when we find one category of developed nations and one of 3rd world countries. things were easy to discuss, US/UK/Aus etc are always best places, and its your good luck if you may have even transit visa in Australia type developed countries. but now things changing and getting complex. for example, these so called Industrialized nations have already lost Industries to emerging markets to an extent and losing the remaining ones too with a constant pace. all the techs are getting common for emerging economies and they have at least 6.0%+ a year average growth even since 2008 recession.

while even if its rude to say, but this is how its going to be working. at 90%+ Debt to GDP level, UK and other EU's economies have to make many spending cuts., which would have undermined any further growth prospects. even at 200% Debt to GDP level, an emerging economy would have reduced debt on long run, as it does grow by at least 6%+, with high inflation too. while EU at hardly 1.0%+ growth a year, would hardly match its population growth, while its Per Capita Income adjusting inflation is still around 5% lower than early 2008.....

its really not about saying wrong about any country, but there is a point on what i say. and the worse we will see if we get any other recession like 2008, dont get surprise but the issues of 2008 recession is still present. China type emerging economies have hollowed out the industries of OECD economies, in fact, and there is no sign that China is stoppable...... and if we get any 2008 type recession again, then i dont think they may again borrow debt in the same way like how they did since 2008. for example of UK, its national debt raised from 45% by early 2008 to 95%+ to date, and one more recession like the same will simply make then unanswerable. even if UK recently regained it pre-crisis economic size, its per capita income is still around 5% less than the early 2008 level because of population growth since then. and its the same story of Eurozone as whole, whose economic size is still around 2% lower than early 2008 level, along with twice debt since then.....
even National Debt of US and many of EU's economies is just doubled since early 2008 itself..

only Australia, Canada type mineral rich low population countries would have strong economic future, along with Japan, France, Germany type highly advanced countries would also withstand any new recession, i think. as, even if US with 320million+ people has been doing so much oil/gas pumping since 2009 itself, its National Debt level is well over 105%+ to date.....

=> and the main fun will be to see the circumstances when Industries back to many of today's OECD economies. very high debt they have put to date, and if the industries back, just one more recession is needed in this regard, then they will have very high inflation in beginning, which does mean for high interests payment on the debt they have borrowed to date........ we may see many funny things in coming years
things are so complex that, the interest payment would occur on the Total Debt, which may result in social unrest too in many of those countries :ranger:

//topforeignstocks.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Gross-Debt-by-Countries-2012.png

cdn.static-economist.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/original-size/t1-overall_0.png

 

[santosh10]

Russia's economic fortunes rise as West sinks

Despair, which is judged on the 'despair index' as inflation + unemployment + poverty, in the West is now higher than in Russia, says Ben Aris. :ranger:

The traditional way of measuring pain in times of crisis is to look at the misery index: inflation + unemployment. But to really capture the pain people are feeling, you need to look at the despair index: inflation + unemployment + poverty.

The shocking fact is that despair in the West is now higher than in Russia.

In October, the US Census Bureau announced that one in seven Americans is living in poverty — the highest number since record-keeping began 53 years ago.

Two weeks later, the UK announced that the number of people out of work has reached its highest level in 17 years, and youth unemployment has hit a historic high at well over 20pc, according to the Office for National Statistics. Spain capped the round of bad news by announcing that unemployment there is 23pc — its highest figure ever and the highest in the EU. Even with the West's low inflation, the misery index is already very high. :coffee:

But unemployment coupled with inflation alone doesn't really tell the whole story. What does it matter if the cost of an iPod rises by 10pc a year if you can't even put food on the table or heat your home?

The despair index allows a direct comparison between the West and emerging markets. The surprise is that central and eastern European states are doing better than the developed economies of the West.

And thanks to record low poverty and unemployment numbers in November, Russia's despair index score of 25.5 is now lower than that of the United States, which has a despair level of 28.1.

Russia's score highlights the transformation the country has been through since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Life for Russians at the start of the Nineties was truly horrible. Russia's misery and despair indices were into the thousands thanks to hyperinflation, but as the decade wore on, the despair index fell steadily from around 90 in 2000 to the current level.

It is easy to blame the rising despair on the current crisis, but the US Census says poverty levels in the US have been rising since well before the current crisis began. Economists say that most American families were worse off in 2000 than they were in 1990.

There are some problems with comparing poverty across countries. With a poverty line of $11,139 (£7,160) per annum, America's poor are a lot better off than most Russians, who earn an average of $9,600. However, the US Census Bureau says half of those living in poverty live in "deep poverty" with incomes half of the official poverty rate, which would make them poor even by Russian standards. :ranger:

The existence of poverty in the "rich" world only underscores the fact that western democracy is flawed and emphasises the increasingly desperate need for deep structural reform. There has been a lot of talk of emerging markets overtaking the West, but for the majority of people, the Brics have already caught up. If you are rich, then you are better off living in America, but if you are poor, then the chances of your life improving are now brighter in Russia. :thumb:

Ben Aris is the editor and publisher of Business New Europe.

Russia's economic fortunes rise as West sinks - Telegraph
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telegraph.co.uk/sponsored/rbth/business/8989603/Russia-economic-fortunes-rise.html