EU warns of collapsing Pakistan, upbeat about India ties

[LETHALFORCE]

Pakistan is going nowhere.
Talibans is nothing.
Once they controlled afghanistan look at them now.

Its so funny when you guys talk about it and worry so much.
Nothing to worry about.

if it was that easy USA would have had better results by now it is 7 years since the war in afghanistan started

 

[Fighter]

if it was that easy USA would have had better results by now it is 7 years since the war in afghanistan started

I think the us and nato have done well... talibans are all scared...
What more can you ask for.

 

[Vladimir79]

they won't go away but a good portion may kill each other of in a power grab.

And then you will have millions having to choose sides of the power struggle. You would have four different states emerging with two of them being terrorist havens poised against India.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

And then you will have millions having to choose sides of the power struggle. You would have four different states emerging with two of them being terrorist havens poised against India.

if the taliban make their way deeper into Pakistan this could occur, and it would impact India,China, and the Central Asian states.

 

[Pintu]

I think the us and nato have done well... talibans are all scared...
What more can you ask for.

Thanks Fighter for giving the comments but personally I am of the opinion that Afghanistan's internal security is still not very good to be controlled by the Afghan forces itself and current balance of security is maintained by the Coalition forces , themselves there, and the obviously the huge presence of the US Army in it. It would be very difficult to control Afghanistan's security by Nato if the USA opts for withdrawal, though current situation does not indicate to that.

As for Pakistan's collapse is concerned , I don't think that going to be happened in any moment for now, but a warning sign shown : Pakistan is still in the list of top ten of the failed nation status.

Regards

 

[Pintu]

if the taliban make their way deeper into Pakistan this could occur, and it would impact India,China, and the Central Asian states.

I completely agree with you LF, if Pakistan collapses, again no time limit , the Taliban gains unpper hand some how, it would seriously affect internal security of India, China and other Central Asian states.

Regards

 

[thakur_ritesh]

eu needs to be told to mind their own business than worry too much of what is happening in rest of the world and stop terming others failed or successful, just reminds me of their comments and resolutions on kashmir where once they say PoK has no freedom and then to please pakistan they comment something on similar lines on J&K, though its another thing that pakistan today is in no such position to tell the eu to mind its own business when they depend on them on the aid, least we allow these countries to be the global policemen and be dictated.

pakistan has failed on a lot of fronts no doubt in that and even today they survive on international financial aid that flows into that country, or in a country where frequent outages can get people on the streets then one can only wonder what would have happened if pakistan would have defaulted on its payments due which in the end would have led to hyper inflation of one of the worst kinds.

taliban a threat seems to have been hyped up or the so-called imminent threat of pakistan's take over would have happened by now and the same hype today is being linked up with the financial aid pakistan got from the us, it is surprising even ms clinton, sect of state, has gone quite on this threat post the passage of bill of financial aid to pakistan. on a second thought, when was taliban a real threat to pakistan which at the end of the day was and is nothing more than a strategic tool of pakistani establishment, which functions directly under the isi.

past experience has shown pakistani establishment directly sheltering the top command of the taliban, where their conversations have been tapped of giving instructions to the taliban top command, or one of their maj gen seen with one such talib and at least for the moment there are no valid reasons to believe the pak army version which always has been trying to play to international/domestic tunes when the on ground situation has been very different. an army that took over 7 years to accept that men in kargil were their own or in 71 during the liberation of bangladesh this same army was supposedly winning till the time the surrender happened then there is no way on earth one can ever believe the version of pak army where they every day claim to have made substantial gains.

the way it seems now, all this drama is being played to assure financial aid to pakistan which was on the verge of being bankrupt an act ably supported by the us administration which in no way can afford pakistan to fall in the fold of prc more so given the strategic location of pakistan which is at a stone throw away distance off india and prc, which both have a potential of tipping the us as both these economies race away to take the top slot and both could emerge as a challenge to the us's super power status which could alter the world power dimensions for ever.

 

[Vladimir79]

With the Pak Army gone, it would be just a matter of time before the IA and IAF finish them off.

Then India would have suicide bombings more than Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan combined. That is what you want?

 

[Known_Unknown]

How could that happen? Without economic, strategic and diplomatic support from Pakistan, LeT is nothing. When the Pak establishment collapses, who will prevent the IA from hunting them down like animals? In the examples you gave, the terrorists were homegrown and hence could easily move among the population without being noticed. It's not possible for terrorists to cross over the border so easily and wreck havoc without training and backing by the Pak Army.

 

[kautilya]

Then India would have suicide bombings more than Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan combined. That is what you want?

Terror thrives from Pakistan today because terrorists are armed, trained and supplied by a state that also protects them with conventional and nuclear arms. e.g. Pakistani provide covering fire for inflitrations along the LoC

Take away that state protection and they're thugs that can be dealt with. Insurgencies historically need a state sponsor to stay alive for any length of time against a determined state.

 

[Vladimir79]

How could that happen? Without economic, strategic and diplomatic support from Pakistan, LeT is nothing. When the Pak establishment collapses, who will prevent the IA from hunting them down like animals? In the examples you gave, the terrorists were homegrown and hence could easily move among the population without being noticed. It's not possible for terrorists to cross over the border so easily and wreck havoc without training and backing by the Pak Army.

Were the Mumbai attacks so difficult? They infiltrated all over the city. Pakistanis blend in to Indian society rather easily. You will have thousands of suicide bombers flooding the borders for retalation for an Indian takeover. Ex-ISI will be setting up their own training camps with no strings attached. It will be a complete terrorist haven with full support from the disbanded wings of the intelligence and security organisations and tens of thousands of recruits, if not hundreds of thousands under Indian rule. The US can't stamp them out, hatred over India would be several times worse.

 

[Known_Unknown]

Vlad, where would they get the funding, and arms from? I agree that in the short term, there might be retaliatory attacks against Indian targets, but in the long term, say over 10-15 years, wouldn't the best way to safeguard against perpetual terrorist attacks be to reform Pak society? Install a government friendly to India that is more concerned with development than with a state policy based on Islamic expansionism?

How do you think this problem could be resolved?

 

[Vladimir79]

Vlad, where would they get the funding, and arms from? I agree that in the short term, there might be retaliatory attacks against Indian targets, but in the long term, say over 10-15 years, wouldn't the best way to safeguard against perpetual terrorist attacks be to reform Pak society? Install a government friendly to India that is more concerned with development than with a state policy based on Islamic expansionism?

How do you think this problem could be resolved?

They would get the funding from Wahabi donours the same as all the fundamentalists do. There would be retalitory bombings for years or decades depending on how quickly you can quash nearly two hundred million potential rebels. Reforming Pak society can only be done if you control the educational institutions of that society. You would have to start destroying Madrasas and putting in secular institutions of learning. This will not only upset the religous right of that country but many of your own Muslims. The reaction would be like a nuklear bomb going off... maybe even one or two of those as well.


To prevent all this from happening I would allow them to partition Pakistan and set up regional governments that can police these groups. If they want to join the UN and avoid sanctions they will have to respect the rule of law. I would keep Indian involvement in this a million miles away. At the very most I would institute all Muslim brigades to help with peace keeping operations under a UN mandated international force. Nukes would have to be dismantled and used for power plant fuel. Pak military equipment could be sold to fund humanitarian missions to feed the millions of refugees that are going to come. Military factories could be converted to civlian products. We could come in and drill all the natural gaz reserves off their shore and install a stabalisation fund. The school curiculum that would be set up would meet local demands but must be approved by a UN council on human rights. Constiutions would be drawn up the same way. Terrorist organisations that arise would not be nearly as severe as if Hindus were seen imposing their thumb on their lives. The fact they would be given national soveriegnty would go a long way to appeasing their demands... especially the Pakhtoons.

 

[Fighter]

Vladimir what have nukes got to do with talibans.
If we dont have nukes we would be finished by the indian army and perhaps other countries.

 

[Vladimir79]

Vladimir what have nukes got to do with talibans.
If we dont have nukes we would be finished by the indian army and perhaps other countries.

If there is complete collapse we don't know where nukes end up. Taleban infiltration of Army and ISI say they get some.

 

[Flint]

Fixed. Apologies everyone, we mods tend to cause trouble sometimes

 

[Fighter]

If there is complete collapse we don't know where nukes end up. Taleban infiltration of Army and ISI say they get some.

I see you point, but i dont think they can do it.
Another options could be, moving them to china if there is any danger.

 

[Vladimir79]

Why are the two different threads merged all of a sudden?

Anyways, congrats to the gay community, hope this ruling will bring in some changes into the society (and in the minds of people hell-bent on holding everyone back).

Gay thread merged with Pakistani collapse thread... that has a certain humour to it.

 

[Fighter]

Gay thread merged with Pakistani collapse thread... that has a certain humour to it.

Russian humour.
:2guns:

 

[Ratus Ratus]

Well want to think about it a bit more carefully.
If Pakistan breaks down/collapses what will you get as a result?

So:
Will the crows gather and try to get their bit and expand their borders, so what was Pakistan vanished into other countries?
Will the crows gather and annex little lucrative bits hence expand their borders, so what was Pakistan disappears into some menial state or two?
Leave what was Pakistan as small meaningless states, all trying to get one over each other?

Result:
I see refugee issues no one wants to deal with.
I see lots of conventional military equipment disappearing into various dark holes
I see stateless actors having fun big time.
I do not see a passive time for India, Iran, Afghanistan and possibly areas of China.

The collapse and destruction of the state Pakistan is actually in no ones interest.

The suggestion of no more state sponsored terrorism, fine but you will get worse than that. Non state sponsored terrorism, or new states sponsoring terrorism.

Remember, “the grass is always greener on the other side of the fence”.
Ask my horse, they know this is true till they break that fence and get to the other side and discover that it is the same grass or worse little grass, but it was greener when they were on the other side of the fence. Ask them they will tell you this.

Yes you want and need Pakistan whole.
Yes you need no more terrorists
Yes Pakistan needs to deal with the inherent problem that has developed over time with little long term thought.