Estimation of Indian Nuclear Arsenal.- Present and Future

[HariPrasad-1]

vsdave2302 said: ↑
There is no confusion about the stages. I am just arguing that Missile can not be very sleek. Because making them sleek would invariabally result into increasing the height of Missile to acomodate required fuel. Plus decreasing in dia of motor shall constraine Power generation. That is why A2 has 1 m dia motor, A4 has 1.3 m dia motor and A3 and A5 has 2 m DIa motor.
Agni series is not bulky. A4 is among the light weight long rane missile. Weight of A3 was reduced to 22 tom from Initial verson weighing 48 tons. A5s weight is also very low and in range of 23 to 26 tons.
Click to expand...
I said early Agni series were bulky as compared to new versions.
The new versions have been introduced with new guidance system replacing the older guidance systems used in older versions but because of our space capabilities we have reduced lot of mass of Agni series BM. Which are being tested every year. The major changes done are
1.The redundant navigation systems, very high accuracy Ring Laser Gyro based Inertial Navigation System (RINS) 2. the most modern and accurate Micro Navigation System (MINS) had ensured the missile reach the target point within a few meters of accuracy. The high speed onboard computer and fault tolerant software along with robust and reliable bus apart from these technologies the indigenous technology which were developed are incorporated in new Agni series have been navigation,guidance and Engine.
vsdave2302 said: ↑
Uranium enrichment is a process of separating U235 from other Urenium isotops. How can Tritium be produced out of that? More over what is the use of tritium in fueling the N submarine? We do not have a fusion reactors in which the tritium may be used as a fuel. We can only use Uranium and plutonium as the fuel.
Click to expand...
Why would tritium be used in N submarine? It will be used in SLBMs
No one has a fusion reactor yet in the world that's why tritium is being used for two stage TN especially in SLBMs.

Source: http://**********/threads/india-s-n...y-a-full-analysis.394249/page-6#ixzz46MYUVFTn

 

[HariPrasad-1]

Yes ,

I had never got the information I got from Mr. locker. They are my communications with Him. I asked him a lots of questions and tried to extract as much information as I could. He was a very knowledgeable fellow. It was a delight to communicate with him.

 

[HariPrasad-1]

Yes ,

I had never got the information I got from Mr. locker. They are my communications with Him. I asked him a lots of questions and tried to extract as much information as I could. He was a very knowledgeable fellow. It was a delight to communicate with him.

@HariPrasad-1 , friend you did a very good job sharing these here. I wanted to read something like these to clear my doubts. Whenever I ask/mail some defence experts about what is max. blast yield of Indian warheads, they always reply that they can't divulse the details/highly classified/not for public kinds of statements. And that's where my doubt grow. It must be well above 1MT; otherwise why everyone is so tightlipped!

 

[HariPrasad-1]

Locker said that A VI will be sleeker and shall incorporate best technology.

 

[SajeevJino]

.

Somebody clean this thread from these idiot discussions

 

[Chinmoy]

What replies????????????????????

You told these were posted in PDF. Just wondering what were the replies to this post there.

 

[HariPrasad-1]

You told these were posted in PDF. Just wondering what were the replies to this post there.

I have posted the subsequent communication between me and locker. Very interesting. Pl read.

 

[HariPrasad-1]

.

Somebody clean this thread from these idiot discussions

Which idiot discussions???????????????

 

[warrior monk]

I post here a very nice analysis of India's nuclear capability here from PDF. This is an opening post by a member named locker. This is his own analysis and he has not posted that from any other source. I post hear with a lots of thanks to him.
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There has been lot of misconception about India's real and imagined nuclear capabilities and make belief comparing with small countries like Pakistan so I am posting about India's fissile material capability since these so called Think Tanks use Fissile material as a yard stick for comparing India with Pakistan's military nuclear infrastructure.




India India has the capacity to reprocess at least 350 metric tons of heavy metal per year (MTHM/yr) in four facilities.

The official estimate of India’s natural uranium reserves provided by the Indian Govt stands at 210000 tons of uranium“reasonably assured resources” (RAR) plus an additional 500000 tonnes in AP –Telengana region of discovered conventional resources so that makes it a grand total of

210000 +500000 = 710000 tonnes.


Now where does India produce plutonium

1) CIRUS ( 40Mwt) assuming 1,000 (MWD/MTU) is necessary for producing weapons-grade plutonium it would have generated 9.4 kgs of plutonium ( WG) per annum so total WG Pu generated 413.6 Kgs till 2010 when CIRUS was shut down.

2) DHRUVA ( 100 Mwt) assuming low burnups of 665 MWD/MTU to 1000MWD/MTU with an operating factor of 0.7 woud have generated till now 626 Kg of WG Pu.


Now India has 8 PHWRs outside safeguards assuming .29 conversion factor so total thermal rating == 8233 to 8410 Mwt


that a single 700 MWt PHWR is committed for the production of weapons-grade plutonium rather than the production of electricity at low BURNUPs of 1000 MWD/MTU will generate 180 kgs of WG Pu per year .

If all are used at low burn ups it would yield 1400 Kgs of WG Pu per year which is ggod for 280 nuclear heads a year , but it would require annual fuel loading of 2000 MTU but we only prduce 1200 MTU/yr but we can increase our capacity and fast refuelling capacity which our CANDU derivatives are capable off but it would tax our refuelling machines.

These eight CANDU derivatives would have a requirement for natural uranium would increase to 60000MTU for their complete lifetime , as i have mentioned above we have the Uranium .

Our online reuelling machines will have problems if we fast fuel full core for all the reactors but it is possible.

So if India goes with this maximalist stance of agressive fissile material buildup through its CANDU derivatives at 1000 MWD/MTU and 0.7 loading factor India would be able to produce--------- 1400 Kgs of WG Pu /yr which is good for----------------------280 warheads/yr

Due to the above mentioned problems of 2000 MTU fuel and technical difficulties if only

1/4th or 1/3rd of the core is used for the production of weapons-grade plutonium operated at a 0.7 capacity factor and low discharge burnup of 1,000 MWD/MTU for a single 700 Mwth reactor ----50 Kgs for 1/4th core and 86 kgs 1/3rd core of WG Pu per year.


700 MWth 50Kg(1/4th core) 86 Kgs ( 1/3rd core ) 1000 MWD/MTU at 0.7


If all 8 reactors are used WG Pu generated per year


8200 Mwth 538 Kgs ( 1/4th core ) 995 Kgs ( 1/3rd core ) 1000 MWD/MTU



The fuel requirement for 1/3rd core low burup operation 1100 MTU/yr which is in India’s capacity

So India can operate all PHWR at ¼ th or 1/3rd core and can make

¼ th core---------- 107 warheads /yr

1/3rd core-----------200 warheads/yr


Here I will not include our PFBR which itself can generate 146 Kgs of WG Pu / Yr in its radial and axial blanket.

Again I will not include our ongoing expansion of our cemtrifuge program which is for our SSBN and SSN cores and also for Staged fusion ( Thermonuclear secondary)

Again i am not going into our AVLIS and MVLIS program

Pakistan's Heavy water reactor capacity to produce plutonium == 275 Mwth
India's Heavy water reactor capacity potentially to produce plutonium== 8233 Mwth
Total plutonium India has outside safeguards including fuel grade and weapons grade === 16000 Kgs
Total plutonium Pakistan has outside safeguards in weapons grade form == 125 kg to 150 kgs


Total number of bombs Pakistan can produce per year == 9 nuclear bombs
Total number of bombs India can produce per year ==== 156 bombs

In case anyone is mentally challenged 156 bombs > 9 bombs

In here I am not including India's fast breeder reactor which only one country in Asia operate.
Pakistan's reprocessing capacity is in the gutters and most important you are running out of Uranium ore before long you will be operating on depleted tails while India has enough uranium to last 60 years of weapons program and our Three stage program can last for 500 years .

The game changer on India's part will be the invention FAST BREEDER REACTOR.
Once it is done then according to experts India can produce 700 warheads annually.

Source: http://**********/threads/india-s-nuclear-military-capability-a-full-analysis.394249/#ixzz46M2rmznd

Oh my God somebody shamelessly copied my post and put it in PDF that godforsaken of a forum of all places .

Who is this " locker guy " and why did he copy my post word to word .

I had posted it in Aug of last year and One for the reply to that mullah Zarvan Ali

You can see the ORIGINAL POST HERE

http://defenceforumindia.com/forum/threads/indias-military-nuclear-capability.69442/#post-1069398

http://defenceforumindia.com/forum/...pment-in-south-asia.69304/page-2#post-1066182

@HariPrasad-1 Where did you find this ??

 

[HariPrasad-1]

K4 based on the Agni III

K4 is based on A4. ..........................

 

[Chinmoy]

I have posted the subsequent communication between me and locker. Very interesting. Pl read.

But all of these were sane discussions. I was looking for something to .

 

[warrior monk]

I first posted India's fissile material calculation in this very thread and people copied it and put it in PDF


http://defenceforumindia.com/forum/...clear-arsenal-present-and-future.35184/page-9

 

[HariPrasad-1]

Oh my God somebody shamelessly copied my post and put it in PDF that godforsaken of a forum of all places .

Who is this " locker guy " and why did he copy my post word to word .

I had posted it in Aug of last year and One for the reply to that mullah Zarvan Ali

You can see the ORIGINAL POST HERE




http://defenceforumindia.com/forum/threads/indias-military-nuclear-capability.69442/#post-1069398

http://defenceforumindia.com/forum/...pment-in-south-asia.69304/page-2#post-1066182

@HariPrasad-1 Where did you find this ??

I found it on one PDF forum here.

http://**********/threads/india-s-nuclear-military-capability-a-full-analysis.394249/

I found it to be very much interesting so I posted it here.

So you deserve the credit. Thanks for that highly informative posts.

However, It has a lot more information than your posts. I posted it subsequently.

Pl check my subsequent posts.

 

[Screambowl]

godown is empty because we are peaceful nation.. we only hit when we get the slap.

 

[warrior monk]

I found it on one PDF forum here.

http://**********/threads/india-s-nuclear-military-capability-a-full-analysis.394249/

I found it to be very much interesting so I posted it here.

So you deserve the credit. Thanks for that highly informative posts.

However, It has a lot more information than your posts. I posted it subsequently.

Pl check my subsequent posts.

I have answered all of that in different threads
and India cannot make 700 bombs a year not even from FBR.

 

[HariPrasad-1]

I have answered all of that in different threads
and India cannot make 700 bombs a year not even from FBR.

May be he is referring to all FBRs to come and not the currently commissioned.

 

[warrior monk]

India doesn't have more than 200 kt warhead even the 200 kt one is theoretical. India's FBR will not be used for weapons purpose .

 

[warrior monk]

May be he is referring to all FBRs to come and not the currently commissioned.

Not possible which I have already answered to some one last year .

 

[HariPrasad-1]

India doesn't have more than 200 kt warhead even the 200 kt one is theoretical. India's FBR will not be used for weapons purpose .

Pramod Mahajan had said that india had the capability to make big bombs than in 1999. Since then, we must have progressed a lot . I do not believe that we do not have big bombs right now. We must have mega tone scale of H bomb by now. And that was the plan when we conceived our nuclear program.

 

[warrior monk]

Pramod Mahajan had said that india had the capability to make big bombs than in 1999. Since then, we must have progressed a lot . I do not believe that we do not have big bombs right now. We must have mega tone scale of H bomb by now. And that was the plan when we conceived our nuclear program.

I answered that in here and how we plan to overcome that

http://defenceforumindia.com/forum/...g-of-agni-vi-missile-is-finished.63762/page-4