Estimation of Indian Nuclear Arsenal.- Present and Future

rock127

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Without going into a numbers game two hints exist to give an idea of India nuclear arsenal

Firstly check Indian fissile material reserves

Second India has completed the nuclear triad only p5 nations
Have this capability. To have a completed nuclear triad you need a large nuclear arsenal.
Also India plays down it's nuke # and also actual range of it's missiles.

Pakistan does the opposite.
 
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Also India plays down it's nuke # and also actual range of it's missiles.

Pakistan does the opposite.
They have too give credibility to a program that has no delivery system no fissile material and smuggled centrifuges. A mouse has to roar like a lion.
 

sayareakd

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Its true we have very good reserve of stockpile. That is why we went to nuclear deal with US. So that future need for the nuclear material for civil reactor can meet.
 

I_PLAY_BAD

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Pakistan knows India's nuclear stockpile is much higher than the reported numbers. That is the reason it ramps up its stockpiles in fear.
 

Bheeshma

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I had heard 100 odd nukes is dis-assembled states way back in 1995 from chaiwallas brother in laws who used to serve chai in BARC. Who knows how many more in these 20 yrs.
 

sorcerer

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Pakistan knows India's nuclear stockpile is much higher than the reported numbers. That is the reason it ramps up its stockpiles in fear.
They should...they should..spent their economy on pukes which Porks will never use or will never be allowed to use..
FInally International community will take em all out of the fear of Isis.

Pakistan assesses India has material for over 2,000 nuclear-warheads: Report

Read more at:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...lear-warheads-report/articleshow/48901469.cms

literally phat gayi hai unki...:pound:
:D
Silences the Pak media on Paki spending on making tactical nukes which pukes will never use.
They are justifying their puke spree in front of the international community..
Everyone is asking telling them that their nuke doctrine to counter India's cold start strategy is not gonna work.
But Pakis have to lie...lie and reason to justify their pathetic excuse and flawed strategies
 

olivers

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HariPrasad-1

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I post here a very nice analysis of India's nuclear capability here from PDF. This is an opening post by a member named locker. This is his own analysis and he has not posted that from any other source. I post hear with a lots of thanks to him.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
There has been lot of misconception about India's real and imagined nuclear capabilities and make belief comparing with small countries like Pakistan so I am posting about India's fissile material capability since these so called Think Tanks use Fissile material as a yard stick for comparing India with Pakistan's military nuclear infrastructure.




India India has the capacity to reprocess at least 350 metric tons of heavy metal per year (MTHM/yr) in four facilities.

The official estimate of India’s natural uranium reserves provided by the Indian Govt stands at 210000 tons of uranium“reasonably assured resources” (RAR) plus an additional 500000 tonnes in AP –Telengana region of discovered conventional resources so that makes it a grand total of

210000 +500000 = 710000 tonnes.


Now where does India produce plutonium

1) CIRUS ( 40Mwt) assuming 1,000 (MWD/MTU) is necessary for producing weapons-grade plutonium it would have generated 9.4 kgs of plutonium ( WG) per annum so total WG Pu generated 413.6 Kgs till 2010 when CIRUS was shut down.

2) DHRUVA ( 100 Mwt) assuming low burnups of 665 MWD/MTU to 1000MWD/MTU with an operating factor of 0.7 woud have generated till now 626 Kg of WG Pu.


Now India has 8 PHWRs outside safeguards assuming .29 conversion factor so total thermal rating == 8233 to 8410 Mwt


that a single 700 MWt PHWR is committed for the production of weapons-grade plutonium rather than the production of electricity at low BURNUPs of 1000 MWD/MTU will generate 180 kgs of WG Pu per year .

If all are used at low burn ups it would yield 1400 Kgs of WG Pu per year which is ggod for 280 nuclear heads a year , but it would require annual fuel loading of 2000 MTU but we only prduce 1200 MTU/yr but we can increase our capacity and fast refuelling capacity which our CANDU derivatives are capable off but it would tax our refuelling machines.

These eight CANDU derivatives would have a requirement for natural uranium would increase to 60000MTU for their complete lifetime , as i have mentioned above we have the Uranium .

Our online reuelling machines will have problems if we fast fuel full core for all the reactors but it is possible.

So if India goes with this maximalist stance of agressive fissile material buildup through its CANDU derivatives at 1000 MWD/MTU and 0.7 loading factor India would be able to produce--------- 1400 Kgs of WG Pu /yr which is good for----------------------280 warheads/yr

Due to the above mentioned problems of 2000 MTU fuel and technical difficulties if only

1/4th or 1/3rd of the core is used for the production of weapons-grade plutonium operated at a 0.7 capacity factor and low discharge burnup of 1,000 MWD/MTU for a single 700 Mwth reactor ----50 Kgs for 1/4th core and 86 kgs 1/3rd core of WG Pu per year.


700 MWth 50Kg(1/4th core) 86 Kgs ( 1/3rd core ) 1000 MWD/MTU at 0.7


If all 8 reactors are used WG Pu generated per year


8200 Mwth 538 Kgs ( 1/4th core ) 995 Kgs ( 1/3rd core ) 1000 MWD/MTU



The fuel requirement for 1/3rd core low burup operation 1100 MTU/yr which is in India’s capacity

So India can operate all PHWR at ¼ th or 1/3rd core and can make

¼ th core---------- 107 warheads /yr

1/3rd core-----------200 warheads/yr


Here I will not include our PFBR which itself can generate 146 Kgs of WG Pu / Yr in its radial and axial blanket.

Again I will not include our ongoing expansion of our cemtrifuge program which is for our SSBN and SSN cores and also for Staged fusion ( Thermonuclear secondary)

Again i am not going into our AVLIS and MVLIS program

Pakistan's Heavy water reactor capacity to produce plutonium == 275 Mwth
India's Heavy water reactor capacity potentially to produce plutonium== 8233 Mwth
Total plutonium India has outside safeguards including fuel grade and weapons grade === 16000 Kgs
Total plutonium Pakistan has outside safeguards in weapons grade form == 125 kg to 150 kgs


Total number of bombs Pakistan can produce per year == 9 nuclear bombs
Total number of bombs India can produce per year ==== 156 bombs

In case anyone is mentally challenged 156 bombs > 9 bombs

In here I am not including India's fast breeder reactor which only one country in Asia operate.
Pakistan's reprocessing capacity is in the gutters and most important you are running out of Uranium ore before long you will be operating on depleted tails while India has enough uranium to last 60 years of weapons program and our Three stage program can last for 500 years .

The game changer on India's part will be the invention FAST BREEDER REACTOR.
Once it is done then according to experts India can produce 700 warheads annually.

Source: http://**********/threads/india-s-nuclear-military-capability-a-full-analysis.394249/#ixzz46M2rmznd
 

Chinmoy

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I post here a very nice analysis of India's nuclear capability here from PDF. This is an opening post by a member named locker. This is his own analysis and he has not posted that from any other source. I post hear with a lots of thanks to him.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
There has been lot of misconception about India's real and imagined nuclear capabilities and make belief comparing with small countries like Pakistan so I am posting about India's fissile material capability since these so called Think Tanks use Fissile material as a yard stick for comparing India with Pakistan's military nuclear infrastructure.




India India has the capacity to reprocess at least 350 metric tons of heavy metal per year (MTHM/yr) in four facilities.

The official estimate of India’s natural uranium reserves provided by the Indian Govt stands at 210000 tons of uranium“reasonably assured resources” (RAR) plus an additional 500000 tonnes in AP –Telengana region of discovered conventional resources so that makes it a grand total of

210000 +500000 = 710000 tonnes.


Now where does India produce plutonium

1) CIRUS ( 40Mwt) assuming 1,000 (MWD/MTU) is necessary for producing weapons-grade plutonium it would have generated 9.4 kgs of plutonium ( WG) per annum so total WG Pu generated 413.6 Kgs till 2010 when CIRUS was shut down.

2) DHRUVA ( 100 Mwt) assuming low burnups of 665 MWD/MTU to 1000MWD/MTU with an operating factor of 0.7 woud have generated till now 626 Kg of WG Pu.


Now India has 8 PHWRs outside safeguards assuming .29 conversion factor so total thermal rating == 8233 to 8410 Mwt


that a single 700 MWt PHWR is committed for the production of weapons-grade plutonium rather than the production of electricity at low BURNUPs of 1000 MWD/MTU will generate 180 kgs of WG Pu per year .

If all are used at low burn ups it would yield 1400 Kgs of WG Pu per year which is ggod for 280 nuclear heads a year , but it would require annual fuel loading of 2000 MTU but we only prduce 1200 MTU/yr but we can increase our capacity and fast refuelling capacity which our CANDU derivatives are capable off but it would tax our refuelling machines.

These eight CANDU derivatives would have a requirement for natural uranium would increase to 60000MTU for their complete lifetime , as i have mentioned above we have the Uranium .

Our online reuelling machines will have problems if we fast fuel full core for all the reactors but it is possible.

So if India goes with this maximalist stance of agressive fissile material buildup through its CANDU derivatives at 1000 MWD/MTU and 0.7 loading factor India would be able to produce--------- 1400 Kgs of WG Pu /yr which is good for----------------------280 warheads/yr

Due to the above mentioned problems of 2000 MTU fuel and technical difficulties if only

1/4th or 1/3rd of the core is used for the production of weapons-grade plutonium operated at a 0.7 capacity factor and low discharge burnup of 1,000 MWD/MTU for a single 700 Mwth reactor ----50 Kgs for 1/4th core and 86 kgs 1/3rd core of WG Pu per year.


700 MWth 50Kg(1/4th core) 86 Kgs ( 1/3rd core ) 1000 MWD/MTU at 0.7


If all 8 reactors are used WG Pu generated per year


8200 Mwth 538 Kgs ( 1/4th core ) 995 Kgs ( 1/3rd core ) 1000 MWD/MTU



The fuel requirement for 1/3rd core low burup operation 1100 MTU/yr which is in India’s capacity

So India can operate all PHWR at ¼ th or 1/3rd core and can make

¼ th core---------- 107 warheads /yr

1/3rd core-----------200 warheads/yr


Here I will not include our PFBR which itself can generate 146 Kgs of WG Pu / Yr in its radial and axial blanket.

Again I will not include our ongoing expansion of our cemtrifuge program which is for our SSBN and SSN cores and also for Staged fusion ( Thermonuclear secondary)

Again i am not going into our AVLIS and MVLIS program

Pakistan's Heavy water reactor capacity to produce plutonium == 275 Mwth
India's Heavy water reactor capacity potentially to produce plutonium== 8233 Mwth
Total plutonium India has outside safeguards including fuel grade and weapons grade === 16000 Kgs
Total plutonium Pakistan has outside safeguards in weapons grade form == 125 kg to 150 kgs


Total number of bombs Pakistan can produce per year == 9 nuclear bombs
Total number of bombs India can produce per year ==== 156 bombs

In case anyone is mentally challenged 156 bombs > 9 bombs

In here I am not including India's fast breeder reactor which only one country in Asia operate.
Pakistan's reprocessing capacity is in the gutters and most important you are running out of Uranium ore before long you will be operating on depleted tails while India has enough uranium to last 60 years of weapons program and our Three stage program can last for 500 years .

The game changer on India's part will be the invention FAST BREEDER REACTOR.
Once it is done then according to experts India can produce 700 warheads annually.

Source: http://**********/threads/india-s-nuclear-military-capability-a-full-analysis.394249/#ixzz46M2rmznd
What were the replies????.............
 

HariPrasad-1

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I reproduce one more post of Mr. Loacker with a lots of thanks to him.


Necessity of Neutron Bomb for India
What is a neutron Bomb?
I call Neutrino bomb as a Poverty Bomb. It is a radiation bomb which was developed in cold war Era.
It can be used to eradicate poverty because if used it will eliminate the people but will not do heavy damage to the Infrastructure surrounding the explosion. it is a process in which the neutrino is allowed to escape the process without getting consumed by the constitute particles. If a Neutrino bomb is being exploded well above the surface the will produce a large blast and emit thermal as well as ionization radiation till 500m. If the neutron bomb is 1kt the n it can produce 4.6 PSI out to a radius of 600m which can damage civilian building and most modern day tanks. Neutron bomb were designed to yield less energy mostly in heat and blast as compared to traditional high yield nuclear bombs.they were designed to take out tanks in area. They were also designed to be used in anti-tanks roles.Neutron bomb in comparison to identical yield fission bomb can emit 10 times the radiation as compared to fission bombs. In a fission bomb the energy released will constitute 5% radiation which constitutes gamma rays and neutrons but in neutron it can go up to 40 % . Neutron bombs are designed to keep infrastructure intact while killing all the people around the explosion but still a 1kt neutron bomb can cause damages to civilian buildings and because it emits more radiation than heat still it can cause third degree burns but also can cause radiation on buildings and particles such as zinc, metals and much more
So to put in short
'It can cause severe damage, while negating severe damage'.

Uses in cold war?
The Neutron bomb was a hot topic during cold war time and also the nucleation of the region.
There were many more neutron bomb made by USA such as W63,W64,W65,W66,W70(mod 0),W70(mod 3).
which were phased in a dramatically manner. It was the True bomb which was used in as strategic ballistic nuclear missile.
the claims which we hear today from Pakistan that we have strategic nuclear missiles and blah blah are nothing but traditional Atom bombs which if used which will result in MAD on pakistani soil annihilating flora and fauna in the region and also the infrastructure. the neutrino bomb W70 (mod 3) were used in strategical ballistic missiles in order to use it on tanks and approaching Russian troops. the conventional land superiority between Nato and Russia gave idea to strategical ballistic missiles by not inflicting severe damages to infrastructure or the surrounding and environment because neutron gets consumed by the air and it depends on distance of the air so no impact on environment and infrastructure but the people which come in direct contact will suffer the burns and great amount of radiation which will result in death and people which are protected by some shield will reduce the radiation level by ten times but still they will suffer the radiation and will fall sick which will result in death after 2 days. It was also used in ABM missiles which were used to hunt down approaching BM in endo atmospheric level. The only country which tests neutron bomb is Russia it has undertaken many tests since 2014. Neutron bomb is regarded as the measure component to be used in ABM missiles, In India we are trying to use Titanium or other alloys in our missiles in BMD in endo atmospheric level.

Why India should choose it?
India has always been a country which has taken NFU policy. in my opinion we should change it and that too for the good.
We should tell the world that we are moving to neutron bombs which are sub kiloton in strength and can be used as our atom bombs which will not inflict major infrastructure or environmental damages like Hiroshima, Nagasaki.
Also India has showed from Shakti 2,3,4 that India is capable of miniaturization and also capable of making sub kiloton bombs which can be 0.5 or less yield bombs. Also as we have whole community under our belt no one will be really concerned about this strategy and once we become NSG or MTCR we can gain the authority. we have already achieved many capabilities which are necessary for the bomb and even if we need help because we have Russia which is the only country which has such capability in use currently.
We can equip our sukhois which have Bramhos with neutron bombs which can be deadliest combination.
This can be used in our ABM. we have two stage BMD system. One is endo atmospheric and other is exo atmospheric which is stated as AAD+PDV, we can use this neutron capability to strengthen our BMD even more.
HariPrasad said:
What is the maximum yield of N bomb. Is it 50 KT or more. Can we build a boosted fission bomb with 200 KT or simply it is impractical?
Click to expand...
Yes why not, even i have heard that India is looking to boost it to 700 kt level which UK has done to its Orange Herald.
HariPrasad said:
What shall be the weight of our bombs ie. Fission, Boosted fission and fusion.
Click to expand...
It depends on mode of transport if we the carrier is land based Based a high yield nuclear bomb can be used air based then low yield in SLBM we can have yield upto MT.
HariPrasad said:
I had read a news about india has developed a lessor which may ignite the fusion device and its yield can be varried between sub KT to any MT. Is it true?
Click to expand...
I think you are referring to cold fusion. The work is on process to master it once done then it will be a game changer for sure i guarantee you.
HariPrasad said:
Do we use U233 in sub KT Devices?
Click to expand...
Ye, but that requires a specialized enhanced quality Boron, and special materials which can constitute the process, India is on the way of having its enhanced Boron facility and can become a leader in that too, so yes we are on the way of that just be tuned.
drunken-monke said:
@locker nice info you have posted.. Keep me in the tags as well..
Click to expand...
thanks my friend do look the updated news which i posted.



Source: http://**********/threads/india-s-n...y-a-full-analysis.394249/page-3#ixzz46MAryU7H
 

Immanuel

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Based on known production rates of Prithvi 1/2, Agni-1/2/3/4/5 etc. since 1999, we should have a ballistic missile arsenal way more than 800 missiles in our current inventory, conservatively assuming only 30% of these missiles are slated to carry nuke warheads, we sould easily have 240 warhead by now. My guess is that we are well over 300. Now with K-15, K-4s, and Agni- 5/6 with MIRV coming up, we are looking at good increase in production as well.
 

HariPrasad-1

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One more communication.

vsdave2302 said:
Thanks.

What is the present capabilty. it said since a long that we have a capability to make 200 KT bomb. Pramod Mahajan hinted it. Have we progressed sine than? Have we entered in MW league with big nations like US , Russia and France?
Click to expand...


Yep we have moved since then.
The 200KT capability is of fusion boosted fission bomb and it was a long way before, our capabilities have increased a lot since then
Sorry I can't indulge in revealing that have we reached 1MT or not but I assure you that our h bombs and capabilities will be on par with P5.

Source: http://**********/threads/india-s-n...y-a-full-analysis.394249/page-4#ixzz46MPCB8wN
 

HariPrasad-1

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vsdave2302 said:
Thanks.

I know it will be at par with p5 in future but what about the present? Currently is it at par with P5? Without testing how much shall be the realiability of our big Bomb?
Click to expand...
As I said my friend I can't disclose everything but at presently we have achieved half the yield our TN bombs, so find out how much is the yield of TN of P5 nations, then you will get the answer but 4 to 5 years down the road you might get a surprise.

Source: http://**********/threads/india-s-n...y-a-full-analysis.394249/page-4#ixzz46MPbz6wW
 

HariPrasad-1

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HariPrasad-1

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vsdave2302 said:
Regarding the tritium, there was an article in TOI. India has gathered a huge quantity weighing in hundreds of kilograms from a very specialized techaniq wich Americans tried and failed. Few grams of tritium is enough for one thermo nuclear device. @locker can educate us more on the subject metter.
Click to expand...
Yep the Mysore plant is specially to for tritium.
Whenever any Fusion bomb is being made it releases Tritium or Lithium
Tritium is used in modern TN which are two stage Fusion/H bomb. Which uses Tritium as a fusion fuel to start the fusion reaction.
We will become the leader inbtritium production because of our technology.
The tritium from Mysore plant can be used in FBR to make TN, fusion boosted fission bombs.
FBR breeds more energy than it consumes. So using tritium in this device will give us 'n' number of bombs and which will also be efficient.

Source: http://**********/threads/india-s-n...y-a-full-analysis.394249/page-6#ixzz46MS1VYuv
 

HariPrasad-1

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vsdave2302 said:
Seeker on Surface to surface missile? Are you talking of terminal guidance?

How can it be sleeker? That shall substentially increase the heoght of missile. It shall be fatter may be with all composite. Avinash chander said that warheads released from missile may futher travel to 1000 KM. So effectively the range shall be 7000 KM + atleast.
Click to expand...
I meant was sleeker.
The programme is a long process in which Agni series is beijg installed with new technology and composites in order to make it thin so that it should not be reduced to certain terrains.
Yes the warheads will not be unitary.
The modern ICBM feature separating warhead buses.
The MIRVes buses will be able to strike targets beyond the missiles range because of its the bus can maneuver and glide to extended range than the missiles range.


Source: http://**********/threads/india-s-n...y-a-full-analysis.394249/page-6#ixzz46MSSmzCm
 

Superdefender

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@HariPrasad-1 , friend you did a very good job sharing these here. I wanted to read something like these to clear my doubts. Whenever I ask/mail some defence experts about what is max. blast yield of Indian warheads, they always reply that they can't divulse the details/highly classified/not for public kinds of statements. And that's where my doubt grow. It must be well above 1MT; otherwise why everyone is so tightlipped!
 

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