Elections in Pakistan : Will India Be Targeted ?

[Singh]

Ok, this is just a bit of scenario-"understanding".

Pakistan is undergoing elections, the scenario isn't clear. Clearly there are forces that either want Military rule, Islamic rule or Democratic Rule.

Sectarian - Sunni sectarian parties have escalated their attacks. They are attacking and killing non-Sunni Muslims by the hundreds all over Pakistan without the security forces acting against them.

Khyber - ANP leadership is being assassinated, TTP's terror is reigning supreme. JeI, the Taliban supporting party, is expected to win over ANP.

Karachi - Ethnic rivalries between Muhajirs and Pathans is expected to heat up in Karachi.

Punjab - is a battleground between Imran Khan and Nawaz Sharif both of whom are pro-Mullah, and Khan considered more pro-Military when compared with Sharif.

South Punjab and Sindh - Its a fight between Landlords and Slave owners.

Balochistan - It'll be boycotted by Baloch.

Now comes India and Kashmir - What will LeT, and the PoK Jihadis do ? will they orchestrate attacks to destabilize the election process and force military takeover ? or will they keep quiet and allow a strong govt to be formed ?

We have already seen increasing attacks in Kashmir. And we also know that Pakistan realizes that because of our obsession with IM, we might hesitate to retaliate against an attack which we cannot concretely tie to LeT.

So Gentlemen, what do you think ?

 

[Iamanidiot]

Plausible Paaji you have given me something to chew upon

 

[Singh]

Plausible Paaji you have given me something to chew upon

In trying to publish this thread quickly, I have left out a lot of plausible scenarios.

Maybe the Army will orchestrate an attack, to force Imran Khan if he chooses to be more independent.

Musharraf or some other figures are assassinated, anarchy breaks lose, some group decides to attack India/Kashmir forcing Military rule again.

Maybe some disgruntled terrorists attack, forcing Military into a corner ?

 

[Iamanidiot]

In trying to publish this thread quickly, I have left out a lot of plausible scenarios.

Maybe the Army will orchestrate an attack, to force Imran Khan if he chooses to be more independent.

Musharraf or some other figures are assassinated, anarchy breaks lose, some group decides to attack India/Kashmir forcing Military rule again.

Maybe some disgruntled terrorists attack, forcing Military into a corner ?

I have been thinking more or less in the same angle as you.This is the first in qite some time and the PA is anxious to wreck it how they will intend to wreck it needs to be simulated especially by using India

 

[Singh]

If you notice the way Pak Army and ISI are reacting to the killings of Shiites its quite clear what are they thinking.

 

[Iamanidiot]

If you notice the way Pak Army and ISI are reacting to the killings of Shiites its quite clear what are they thinking.

There is a lot more at play

 

[Illusive]

With exit of US, PA would defiantly want the reigns or a puupet i.e IK, to gain support they have always made India the boogeyman which means India talking war in case of a terror attack.

But what if theres a factions supporting Mushi to come to power and ones against it.

 

[Apollyon]

Thread Title: "Elections in Pakistan: Will India be Targeted".
Content: "will LeT and Jihadi try to escalate situation with India and hope for a military takeover".

So a reader like me will be perplexed by whether OP is talking about being targeted politically or by force.

 

[arnabmit]

LoC ceasefire would be breached for sure... Infiltration will increase for sure... We already saw that in Srinagar a few times this month.

Pak will resume playing the victim card. They will increase non-state actor pin-pricks on India and when India talks tough they will go cry on UNMOGIP's shoulders against "War Monger" India.

 

[roma]

ive voted for they wont dare do anything - i think the level of intelligence in pak may have reached a stage where except for really a few , most have realised their problems are of their own doing - i think the focus will be on the internal options - mush / imran / zardari / altaff hussein - also international pak living abroad , usa-pak caucus and usa govt will be very negative to them if pak tries anything corss-border.

that is in terms of army- airforce - in terms of bombay style 26/11, that threat will ALWAYS exist as long as pak in its present form continues and india should always upgrade alert systems to warn in advance if possible and to react fast if not .- this second-type of threat will exist regardless of who is in the PM's office -. it is a result of groups such as ISI and even possibly privately organised gorups

 

[arnabmit]

Those intellectually mature enough to introspect and realize are the educated liberal 5-10%. Rest are educated in the jihad factory.

ive voted for they wont dare do anything - i think the level of intelligence in pak may have reached a stage where except for really a few , most have realised their problems are of their own doing - i think the focus will be on the internal options - mush / imran / zardari / altaff hussein - also international pak living abroad , usa-pak caucus and usa govt will be very negative to them if pak tries anything corss-border.

that is in terms of army- airforce - in terms of bombay style 26/11, that threat will ALWAYS exist as long as pak in its present form continues and india should always upgrade alert systems to warn in advance if possible and to react fast if not .- this second-type of threat will exist regardless of who is in the PM's office -. it is a result of groups such as ISI and even possibly privately organised gorups

 

[gokussj9]

Those intellectually mature enough to introspect and realize are the educated liberal 5-10%. Rest are educated in the jihad factory.

Even those 5-10% liberals peddle their snake oil and want to persuade India to give up the status-quo so that
Pakhana-land may gain something. The have sprung up because of dire economic condition of Pak and if in future
the conditions stabilizes, they will show their true colors.

 

[roma]

Those intellectually mature enough to introspect and realize are the educated liberal 5-10%. Rest are educated in the jihad factory.

Even those 5-10% liberals peddle their snake oil and want to persuade India to give up the status-quo so that
Pakhana-land may gain something. The have sprung up because of dire economic condition of Pak and if in future
the conditions stabilizes, they will show their true colors.

well if both of you are even reasonably accurate, then pak before too long will become the next Afghanistan .-....... chaos !!

 

[anoop_mig25]

suppose a party supported by taliban wins enough seat so that its support is important to from a gov at center or state .what would happen then.I could think of only one secene more bloods in kashmir

 

[arnabmit]

Not "will become" dear... but "has become". Please listen to GeoTV news on youtube.

I mean, we are talking about a country where the public service announcement on education appeals that:
"Please don't burn buses and homes and kill people unless you know why you are doing so"

[video=youtube_share;42o3KApObFM]http://youtu.be/42o3KApObFM[/video]

well if both of you are even reasonably accurate, then pak before too long will become the next Afghanistan .-....... chaos !!

 

[DivineHeretic]

suppose a party supported by taliban wins enough seat so that its support is important to from a gov at center or state .what would happen then.I could think of only one secene more bloods in kashmir

Taliban using backdoor to power is unlikely. They want everything for themselves, by themselves. They are the least of our concerns regarding Pakistan.

Unfortunately, the same cannot be said of the great Swine Hafiz Saeed. He most definitely has political ambitions, and more importantly has assets within the various political parties eager to associate with his alleged charities. In the next elections. Whoever wins, His political clout will climb several notches. Thats the reality we will be faced with.

If the worst comes to worst, and Hafiz Saeed and Syed Sallaudin manages to secure approval to increase activities in J&K, we could be faced with a similar situation as was faced in the early 90s, but only in the border regions. It is very difficult for small groups of infiltrators to come close to the LoC escaping detection. This is the reason why the Pakistanis began attempting to infiltrate larger groups, in the hope that atleast some will manage to penetrate, even if the group is detected and ambushed

This led to the huge encounters we saw from late 2009- early 2011, where in an encounter as many as 10-15 militants were gunned down. Now, if they attempt to infiltrate parties on the lines of early 90s, a massacre awaits them.

It must also be noted that R&AW, particularly the ARC and NTRO is very active in POK, in addition to SG of the IA. Any buildup will in all likelyhood be picked up before anything major goes off. However, I do believe that if the situation does show signs of deterioration, the IA and CAPF will be forced to redeploy the divisions withdrawn since 2011, including possibly adding extra divisions as a precautionary measure.

 

[anoop_mig25]

Taliban using backdoor to power is unlikely. They want everything for themselves, by themselves. They are the least of our concerns regarding Pakistan.

Unfortunately, the same cannot be said of the great Swine Hafiz Saeed. He most definitely has political ambitions, and more importantly has assets within the various political parties eager to associate with his alleged charities. In the next elections. Whoever wins, His political clout will climb several notches. Thats the reality we will be faced with.

If the worst comes to worst, and Hafiz Saeed and Syed Sallaudin manages to secure approval to increase activities in J&K, we could be faced with a similar situation as was faced in the early 90s, but only in the border regions. It is very difficult for small groups of infiltrators to come close to the LoC escaping detection. This is the reason why the Pakistanis began attempting to infiltrate larger groups, in the hope that atleast some will manage to penetrate, even if the group is detected and ambushed

This led to the huge encounters we saw from late 2009- early 2011, where in an encounter as many as 10-15 militants were gunned down. Now, if they attempt to infiltrate parties on the lines of early 90s, a massacre awaits them.

It must also be noted that R&AW, particularly the ARC and NTRO is very active in POK, in addition to SG of the IA. Any buildup will in all likelyhood be picked up before anything major goes off. However, I do believe that if the situation does show signs of deterioration, the IA and CAPF will be forced to redeploy the divisions withdrawn since 2011, including possibly adding extra divisions as a precautionary measure.

What if they use assets of IM to divert our attention in other parts of india , so that they can carryout their activities in J&K