Egypt could become a greater threat than Pakistan, say analysts

[JayATL]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jan/31/egypt-greater-threat-than-pakistan

Turmoil in a state western counter-terrorism agencies have been able to rely on could have 'far-reaching consequences'


has the potential to take Pakistan's place as the country posing the greatest threat to Britain's security, intelligence analysts said today.

Political turmoil in a state western counter-terrorism agencies have been able to rely on would also have "far-reaching consequences for the Arab-Israel relationship and regional instability", a former senior intelligence official said.

There would also be serious implications for European security, yet neither Europe nor the US could influence events in Egypt now, analysts warned.

EU countries, including Britain, have been promoting the cause of political and judicial reform as they have in other countries, including Afghanistan.

But European governments, and their security and intelligence agencies in particular, have wanted stability above all. "They have to talk the talk, but don't expect [reform] to happen," is how one observer described their attitude.

Now some more acute officials say reform is needed but not too quickly. John Sawers, head of MI6 and a former British ambassador to Egypt, in the first public speech of a serving head of Britain's foreign intelligence service, referring to the "Islamic world", said: "Over time moving to a more open system of government in these countries, one more responsive to people's grievances, will help.

"But if we demand an abrupt move to the pluralism that we in the west enjoy, we may undermine the controls that are now in place. Terrorists would end up with new opportunities."

Rosemary Hollis, professor of Middle East policy studies at City University, London, suggested the view of western intelligence officials or diplomats would be: "Senior military people should quietly tell him [Mubarak], 'We need a more benign version of you.'"

 

[JayATL]

Look who has a competition to race to the the bottom

 

[Tshering22]

This is stupid. Right now, the most threatening dangerous country on earth is Pakistan. A somalia with nuclear weapons if elaboration is needed and nuclear weapons that have been reportedly doubled in stock. These analysts are seriously desperate to shield Pakistan away from negative publicity why? Goodness knows (NATO route is scaring them so badly of Pakistan).

Egypt is not even a pebble in this quagmire because it doesn't have N-U-K-E-S. Simple as that. Funny this comes from British analysts since their country is crammed with radical mulla-ized Pakistanis the most and have reported to have most jihad-plotting incidents than any other European country in the last decade.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

The person who wrote this article must be an ignorant idiot, Pakistan now reportedly has the 4th largest nuclear arsenal, Egypt has no such thing.

 

[anoop_mig25]

well pakistani policymakers would be happy hearing to this . music to their ears. they would like world attention to shift from them to others countries

 

[LETHALFORCE]

well pakistani policymakers would be happy hearing to this . music to their ears. they would like world attention to shift from them to others countries

They created this monster,ignoring the monster will not make it go away.

 

[tarunraju]

Mubarak is a US pet. Obviously the western media would want to show Mubarak's ouster as a "bad thing".

 

[Ray]

Britain is worried that the Muslim Brotherhood will raise its head once the iron fisted regime of Mubarrak is wiped out.

While Pakistan, no doubt, is the womb of terrorism, the Muslim Brotherhood is the fountainhead.

Islamic terrorism and extremist organizations in the Middle East developed gradually and have several historical layers.

The first layer was the creation of the Muslim Brotherhood, the world's oldest and largest Islamic political organization. This organization, founded in Egypt in the 1920s to promote Islamic values, quickly branched out in many other Arab countries, and has served as the ideological foundation for most Islamic-fundamentalist movements.

Over the years, the "Muslim Brotherhood" was banned in Egypt on the grounds that it promotes an Islamic fundamentalist agenda. At the same time, however, the organization's branches in other Arab countries thrived. In the classified analytical reports, memoranda and cables of the intelligence and counter-intelligence agencies, they found information and references to the Muslim Brotherhood roots of today's Islamist terrorist organizations. Extremist organizations such as Al-Qaeda, Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah were created or influenced by the Muslim Brotherhood ideologues.

Islamic Terrorism and British Connection can be checked out here:
http://www.socialcohesion.co.uk/uploads/1278089320islamist_terrorism_preview.pdf

 

[Ray]

Mubarrak must go, but then one has to be careful that there is not another Afghanistan created, where the Islamic radical forces can created mayhem and chaos.

It must be remembered that the Suez Canal statistics indicate that Petroleum (both crude oil and refined products) accounted for 16 percent of Suez cargos, measured by cargo tonnage, in 2009. An estimated 1.0 million bbl/d of crude oil and refined petroleum products flowed northbound through the Suez Canal to the Mediterranean Sea in 2009, while 0.8 million bbl/d travelled southbound into the Red Sea.

Almost 35,000 ships transited the Suez Canal in 2009.

Imagine the chaos to world trade is the political and security situation in Egypt becomes fluid.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

The fear is a rerun of what happened with Iran during the revolution when Kohmeni came to power. The direction Egypt takes is very important to the rest of the Middle East where USA has declining influence, there will be one less US puppet when Mobarak is gone.

 

[Tshering22]

Mubarrak must go, but then one has to be careful that there is not another Afghanistan created, where the Islamic radical forces can created mayhem and chaos.

It must be remembered that the Suez Canal statistics indicate that Petroleum (both crude oil and refined products) accounted for 16 percent of Suez cargos, measured by cargo tonnage, in 2009. An estimated 1.0 million bbl/d of crude oil and refined petroleum products flowed northbound through the Suez Canal to the Mediterranean Sea in 2009, while 0.8 million bbl/d travelled southbound into the Red Sea.

Almost 35,000 ships transited the Suez Canal in 2009.

Imagine the chaos to world trade is the political and security situation in Egypt becomes fluid.

This makes it all the more imperative for us to speed up the TRADE CORRIDOR agreement with Russians and Iranians since this was signed to offer an alternative route to Suez Canal. With this setup, we will be able to receive our trade goods through Russian, Kazakh, Turkmen, then straight to Iran and into India vis ships.

For this, we will have to do something about the recent hiccups we got with them. Although I don't think there is a quick solution to this since Iranians touched our nerve with mentioning of J&K.