Economy of the Russian Federation

[спецназ]

Re: Russian Industrial Growth up, Wages keep pace with Inflation: Ross

@спецназ, what about agriculture? What is Russia planning to do to avoid having to import food?

The recent ban of western foods is a golden opportunity for Russian agriculture,but upping the production will take some years....
But right now,domestic producers will only be able to replace a relatively small part of the imports lost,but the main beneficiaries of the ban will be exporters from , Latin America and the Pacific Rim, who can boost exports to Russia.

 

[amoy]

Re: Russian Industrial Growth up, Wages keep pace with Inflation: Ross

It's reported that Russia has agreed to leasing of Far East lands to N.Krean farmers recently.

IMO Russian agricultural problems r in part owing to demography. however the immigrants phobia puts Russia in a catch-22 situation. Is the immigrant issue sensitive in Russia?

Weren't there many Koreans and Vietnamese brought in to work in agri during the Soviet era?

 

[pmaitra]

Re: Russian Industrial Growth up, Wages keep pace with Inflation: Ross

It's reported that Russia has agreed to leasing of Far East lands to N.Krean farmers recently.

IMO Russian agricultural problems r in part owing to demography. however the immigrants phobia puts Russia in a catch-22 situation. Is the immigrant issue sensitive in Russia?

Weren't there many Koreans and Vietnamese brought in to work in agri during the Soviet era?

Russia is quite justified in not allowing immigrants, especially from PRC. That is a demographic time-bomb.

 

[JBH22]

Re: Russian Industrial Growth up, Wages keep pace with Inflation: Ross

Russia is quite justified in not allowing immigrants, especially from PRC. That is a demographic time-bomb.

Russians are not stupid as Indians. Its only here that you have DIDI who would fight for illegal Bangladeshis

 

[pmaitra]

Re: Russian Industrial Growth up, Wages keep pace with Inflation: Ross

Russians are not stupid as Indians. Its only here that you have DIDI who would fight for illegal Bangladeshis

Correct. Russia must keep all the Chinese out of Russia.

We are learning the hard way from the BD immigrants. Russia could do without that headache.

PRC poses a long term threat to both Russia and India. The medium term threat to both India and Russia is NATO.

We have our hands full, don't we?

 

[sgarg]

Re: Russian Industrial Growth up, Wages keep pace with Inflation: Ross

@pmaitra, Russia needs to allow some migration. Its population is too low.

 

[pmaitra]

Re: Russian Industrial Growth up, Wages keep pace with Inflation: Ross

Major Domestic Benefits with Plunging Ruble

• Russia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 51.7, the highest in more than a year.
• Input prices surged at a rate not yet seen in this century.
• A lower exchange rate makes a nation much more competitive in selling goods.
• Industrial output grew 2.9 percent in October, the most since November 2012.

Ott Ummelas (Bloomberg) [SOURCE]

This article originally appeared at Bloomberg.

Russian manufacturers reported improving conditions for a fifth month in November, exceeding forecasts by economists as a weaker currency spurred output and pushed input-price growth to the fastest in more than 16 years.

The Russia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 51.7, the highest in more than a year, from 50.3 in October, HSBC Holdings Plc said in a statement, citing data compiled by Markit Economics. That exceeded all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of six economists, whose forecasts ranged from 49.9 to 50.2. Readings above 50 indicate expansion.

"Input prices surged at a rate not yet seen in this century," Alexander Morozov, chief economist for Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States for HSBC in Moscow, said in the statement. "Manufacturers either benefit from substitution of expensive imports or just misinterpret a temporary spike in demand driven by the increased inflationary expectations."

President Vladimir Putin is counting on domestic producers taking advantage of the ruble's record plunge to shield an economy battered by nosediving oil prices and sanctions imposed over the conflict in Ukraine. The surge of input costs raises the likelihood of "double-digit" inflation in the coming months and boosts the case for an increase in interest rates by the central bank, according to HSBC.

The ruble has lost 29 percent against the dollar in the past three months, the worst performer among 24 emerging-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg. A lower exchange rate makes a nation more competitive in selling goods.

Domestic Demand

Russian producers are benefitting from resilience in domestic demand, which helped offset the 15th straight month of falling new export business, according to HSBC. The manufacturing industry has strengthened since July following eight months of contraction as output and new orders increased, it said.

Industrial output grew 2.9 percent in October, the most since November 2012, expanding for a second month after zero growth in August, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The economy of the world's biggest energy exporter expanded 0.7 percent from a year earlier in the third quarter, slowing less than forecast, even as the central bank said last month that growth may be near zero next year.

The economy remains hamstrung by the biggest capital outflow since 2008 and the fastest inflation in more than three years. The central bank in October brought its key interest rate to the highest since it was introduced in September 2013.

Consumer-price growth accelerated to 8.3 percent in October, the fastest since July 2011. Policy makers have raised their main rate four times by a cumulative 400 basis points since March to rein in inflation.

"Rising prices at manufacturers predicts the continuation of fast growth on consumer prices as well," Morozov said. "The pass-through effect from the weaker currency on costs and output inflation is stronger this time, compared to the one observed in the first half this year on the back of the first round of ruble weakening."

 

[Ray]

Fall of Russian ruble injects uncertainty into global economy

Fall of Russian ruble injects uncertainty into global economy

Russia's turmoil involving the ruble serves as a reminder of the way falling petroleum prices can roil the outlook for oil-exporting nations.

A collapsing Russian ruble signals economic trouble for Russia and new uncertainty for the global economy.

For Russia, the meaning seems clear: Forecasters see a recession there in 2015, with the main question being how deep and protracted.

For the world economy, the import is murkier.

Maybe economic woes in Russia won't mean much. The country accounts for only a small fraction of world economic activity. Although major European stock indexes fell more than 2 percent Tuesday, US stocks largely shook off the dire headlines about the ruble.

But at the very least, Russia's turmoil is serving as a reminder of the way falling petroleum prices can roil the outlook for oil-exporting nations. It also brings new doubt about whether the US Federal Reserve will move steadily forward on its expected path toward raising US interest rates sometime in 2015.

And it raises new uncertainty about Russian politics and foreign policy: Desperate financial times could spawn new dangers as Vladimir Putin seeks to maintain a grip on power, as Russians feel a squeeze from tighter monetary policy and Western economic sanctions.

What's clear now is that Russia faces a ruble crisis that's hard to contain.

The Central Bank of Russia hiked its benchmark interest rate by 6.5 percentage points overnight, less than a week after a 1 percentage point rate boost. Although the move was a significant new show of resolve, the currency still fell further Tuesday.

"The course of the rouble will depend more on developments on the oil price and economic sanction fronts than on the path of the policy interest rate," says Charles Movit, an economist at the forecasting firm IHS Global Insight, in an e-mailed analysis.

In a telephone interview, he says Russia has now tried two policy levers: intervening in currency markets and raising interest rates. A third option – imposing capital controls to limit the flow of investors exiting the currency – might be tried next, he says.

The key, though, is what happens to oil prices.

Rising oil production around the world, coupled with relatively weak demand and Saudi determination to hold onto its market share, has made for a historic downdraft for oil prices. The giant among OPEC nations, Saudi Arabia hopes to drive out higher-cost sources of oil (including US-based shale deposits) from production.

Russia is a relatively high-cost oil producer, yet is heavily reliant on oil as a source of government revenue.

"This [ruble crisis] really could be cured rather simply if Saudi Arabia changes its mind" and cuts oil production, Mr. Movit says. The price of oil might then rise back toward $80 per barrel.

As Russia's outlook has deteriorated, stock markets and currencies in other oil-producing nations and some other emerging markets have also been under pressure.

"Investors' loss of appetite for risk as the crisis in Russia unfolds is now having adverse consequences for the currencies of a broad sweep of emerging market countries," the forecasting firm Capital Economics said in a research report Tuesday.

All this could make the US Federal Reserve wary of signaling its intent to hike interest rates, at a time of new unease in the global economy. The Fed has a policy meeting this week.

The White House, meanwhile, said Tuesday that Mr. Obama will sign into law additional sanctions designed to penalize Russia for its actions in Ukraine, the Associated Press reported. The penalties are targeted at weapons-making companies.
Fall of Russian ruble injects uncertainty into global economy

Oil as a weapon is once again proved.

One wonders what those who was claiming that the sudden spurge in oil production was a mere happenstance and not a political game plan.

Maybe @asianobserve can help us to understand why he rubbished the idea that oil production incerea was being used under political diktats as a weapon to bring Russia to heel.

 

[asianobserve]

Re: Fall of Russian ruble injects uncertainty into global economy

Maybe @asianobserve can help us to understand why he rubbished the idea that oil production incerea was being used under political diktats as a weapon to bring Russia to heel.

You're question seem to be out-of-touch with the thread. Anyway, you should know that Russia itself does not want to cut back production. If it sees oil oversupply as being used a weapon against it by US then why won't it cut back production and convince OPEC, or willing members, to cut back production? Because it does not see the US using the oil weapon. The oil price collapse is merely coincidental due to oversupply and sluggish World economy - it's the basic economic law of "supply and demand."

 

[Ray]

Re: Fall of Russian ruble injects uncertainty into global economy

You're question seem to be out-of-touch with the thread. Anyway, you should know that Russia itself does not want to cut back production. If it sees oil oversupply as being used a weapon against it by US then why won't it cut back production and convince OPEC, or willing members, to cut back production? Because it does not see the US using the oil weapon. The oil price collapse is merely coincidental due to oversupply and sluggish World economy - it's the basic economic law of "supply and demand."

I am astonished.

You want to know - Why Russia does not cut back oil production?

Would it not, if it does not find takers, or is Russia in a benevolent mood to give the oil to countries gratis just to keep oil production going at the current flow?

If the prices of any commodity plummets does the manufacturer continue to produce it any more?

If there is all the gold in the world was available for a throwaway price, would it still command such high prices as it does now? And would the companies mining the same keep the oversupply on and make the prices fall more?

Manipulation of production and thus the cost to fulfil a political aim is not a new activity.

That apart I might remind you that in 1973 and 1980 when the West went through huge economic problems due to oil price shocks, the Soviet Union did not appear to have nearly as large of problems. The West went through an incredible oil crisis, which was discussed and analyzed to incredible lengths, yet the Soviet Union continued relatively unfazed. This was because the Soviets had plenty of oil at that time to fulfill their own needs and even enough surplus to export. Even during the so called Soviet "oil crises" of 1977-1982 and 1982-1988, Gustafson (1989), the Soviet Union did not have decreasing oil production except for a slight decrease in 1984. During both periods the Soviet Union could cover consumption and exports and the economy was not greatly affected. However, by 1989 that had changed. Finally the Soviet Union faced the same economic crisis that the West had already endured in order to allocate its oil more efficiently.

However, it appears that this time around what did not affect the USSR in the 1973 and 1980, is affecting her now.

Think it over.

On your other question - If it sees oil oversupply as being used a weapon against it by US then why won't it cut back production and convince OPEC, or willing members, to cut back production?

It may claim what it want as a bravado but it will have to cut production since the market has shrunk with the EU not being given oil.

Convince the OPEC?

The members of the OPEC are Russian protégés or US protégés?

The biggest producer in the OPEC is Saudi Arabia. She is a Russian ally that she will play ball with Russia?

Very odd question and smacks of being geopolitically naive.

 

[asianobserve]

Re: Fall of Russian ruble injects uncertainty into global economy

I am astonished.

You want to know - Why Russia does not cut back oil production?

Would it not, if it does not find takers, or is Russia in a benevolent mood to give the oil to countries gratis just to keep oil production going at the current flow?

If the prices of any commodity plummets does the manufacturer continue to produce it any more?

If there is all the gold in the world was available for a throwaway price, would it still command such high prices as it does now? And would the companies mining the same keep the oversupply on and make the prices fall more?

Manipulation of production and thus the cost to fulfil a political aim is not a new activity.

That apart I might remind you that in 1973 and 1980 when the West went through huge economic problems due to oil price shocks, the Soviet Union did not appear to have nearly as large of problems. The West went through an incredible oil crisis, which was discussed and analyzed to incredible lengths, yet the Soviet Union continued relatively unfazed. This was because the Soviets had plenty of oil at that time to fulfill their own needs and even enough surplus to export. Even during the so called Soviet "oil crises" of 1977-1982 and 1982-1988, Gustafson (1989), the Soviet Union did not have decreasing oil production except for a slight decrease in 1984. During both periods the Soviet Union could cover consumption and exports and the economy was not greatly affected. However, by 1989 that had changed. Finally the Soviet Union faced the same economic crisis that the West had already endured in order to allocate its oil more efficiently.

However, it appears that this time around what did not affect the USSR in the 1973 and 1980, is affecting her now.

Think it over.

On your other question - If it sees oil oversupply as being used a weapon against it by US then why won't it cut back production and convince OPEC, or willing members, to cut back production?

It may claim what it want as a bravado but it will have to cut production since the market has shrunk with the EU not being given oil.

Convince the OPEC?

The members of the OPEC are Russian protégés or US protégés?

The biggest producer in the OPEC is Saudi Arabia. She is a Russian ally that she will play ball with Russia?

Very odd question and smacks of being geopolitically naive.

Until I see clear facts that the US is manipulating oil prices, Putin will himself deliver it if he has proof, then what you are saying is purely theory. The fact is that there has been a slow down in Worldwide demand for oil coupled with increased production. Unless you are saying that the US is also colluding with China, Japan, South Korea, and other Asian countries to create an artificial shortage of demand...

 

[Ray]

Re: Fall of Russian ruble injects uncertainty into global economy

Until I see clear facts that the US is manipulating oil prices, Putin will himself deliver it if he has proof, then what you are saying is purely theory. The fact is that there has been a slow down in Worldwide demand for oil coupled with increased production. Unless you are saying that the US is also colluding with China, Japan, South Korea, and other Asian countries to create an artificial shortage of demand...

How delightful!

So, you want Obama to announce to the World that he is organising manipulation?

Has Russia announced that there are Russian troops in East Ukraine as the West is claims?

How childish can you get? Or maybe you are a child since none can guess who is at the other end.

The world demand has slowed down? Really?

Here is news for you that you must have missed while you slumbered and fantasised.

Brent at a bargain: China ups oil imports
In late November, the members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) broke with tradition by not slowing down oil production - recognizing that under the circumstances, they were hardly in a position to push through higher prices.

So far 91 million barrels have been stored at four facilities. In the next phase, seven facilities with a total capacity of 191 million barrels are to be added. Experts estimate that from next year China will be able to import 700,000 barrels per day.
http://www.dw.de/brent-at-a-bargain-china-ups-oil-imports/a-18126468

Thirdly, America has become the world's largest oil producer. Though it does not export crude oil, it now imports much less, creating a lot of spare supply. Finally, the Saudis and their Gulf allies have decided not to sacrifice their own market share to restore the price. They could curb production sharply, but the main benefits would go to countries they detest such as Iran and Russia. Saudi Arabia can tolerate lower oil prices quite easily. It has $900 billion in reserves. Its own oil costs very little (around $5-6 per barrel) to get out of the ground.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2014/12/economist-explains-4

China is the world's second-largest net importer of oil. Based on 2013 figures, every $1 drop in the oil price saves it an annual $2.1 billion. The recent fall, if sustained, lowers its import bill by $60 billion, or 3%. Most of its exports are manufactured goods whose prices have not fallen. Unless weak demand changes that, its foreign currency will go further, and living standards should rise.

Cheaper oil will also help the government clean up China's filthy air by phasing out dirty vehicle fuels, such as diesel. Lighter fuels are dearer and, under current plans, drivers could pay up to 70% of the extra; lower prices will soften that blow.

More generally, says Lin Boqiang of Xiamen University, lower prices should support the government's efforts to reduce subsidies (it has already freed some gas prices, and electricity prices are expected to follow next year)......

First, as in China, imports become cheaper relative to exports. Oil accounts for about a third of India's imports, but its exports are diverse (everything from food to computing services), so they are not seeing across-the-board price declines. Second, cheaper energy moderates inflation, which has already fallen from over 10% in early 2013 to 6.5%, bringing it within the central bank's informal target range. This should lead to lower interest rates, boosting investment.

Third, cheaper oil cuts India's budget deficit, now 4.5% of GDP, by reducing fuel and fertiliser subsidies. These are huge: along with food subsidies, the total is 2.5 trillion rupees ($41 billion) in the year ending March 2015--14% of public spending and 2.5% of GDP. The government controls the price of diesel and compensates sellers for their losses.

But, for the first time in years, sellers are making a profit. As in China, cheaper oil should reduce the pain of cutting subsidies--and on October 19th Narendra Modi, India's prime minister, said he would finally end diesel subsidies, free diesel prices and raise natural-gas prices.....

That means many countries face a choice: seize the moment to dismantle subsidies, or keep on handing out goodies that now cost less? Either way, they will benefit--by ending an economic distortion (though with some risk of a consumer backlash), or by reducing its fiscal cost for a while.

Saudi Arabia can survive low prices because, when oil was $100 a barrel, it saved more of the windfall than it spent. The biggest losers are countries that didn't. Notable among these are three vitriolic critics of America: Venezuela, Iran and Russia.
http://www.businessinsider.in/Here-...rs-Of-Low-Oil-Prices/articleshow/44942790.cms

Global Shale Ambitions Wane as OPEC Price War Deepens
http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...ons-wane-as-opec-price-war-deepens-oil-plunge

China, Japan, South Korea, and other Asian countries produce and export oil to collude with the US?

 

[Singh]

Russia plans new measures to stabilise the rouble

Russia is planning new measures to stabilise the rouble to try to stem its recent slump against the dollar.

Its central bank said, if necessary, it would provide additional capital to Russia's banks and financial companies.

The rouble has regained ground from Tuesday's all-time low, although trading remains edgy and volatile.

The announcement left the currency 10% higher against the dollar. One US dollar bought 62 roubles, far fewer than the record low of 79 on Tuesday.

Russia also said it would hold more foreign exchange auctions if needed.

"These measures are intended to balance supply and demand on the foreign exchange market, which will help stabilise the rouble rate more quickly," said the Russian central bank's first deputy governor, Ksenia Yudayeva.
'Undervalued'

The rouble has been hit by worries over the Russian economy, which has been affected by cheaper oil and sanctions.

A drastic 6.5 percentage point rise in Russian interest rates to 17% early on Tuesday failed to halt the slide in the currency.

The rate rise, which was meant to strengthen the rouble, helped it to hit 58 to the dollar early on Tuesday but the rate then collapsed to a record low of 79.

As a result, Russia's Finance Ministry said that it was intervening in the market and that the currency was "undervalued".

It also gave details of the amount it spent on such action, saying it had spent almost $2bn on Monday in an attempt to stop the rouble sliding.

Deputy finance minister Alexei Moiseyev said Russia was going to sell foreign currency from its treasury accounts "as much as necessary and as long as necessary".
Continue reading the main story
"Start Quote

"It is in our interests to bring order to the markets, no one gains from instability"

Dmitry Medvedev Russian Prime Ministe

"At least the Russian authorities have figured out that letting your currency drop 10% one day, more or less 20% the next peak to trough... might not be such a good idea in terms of financial security... and are finally beginning to join up the dots, and think collectively, to try and re-assure markets," Timothy Ash, head of emerging market research at Standard Bank in London, said in a research note.
'Emotional games'

Neil Shearing, chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, said the move was welcome, although there was no guarantee it would reverse the damage.

"It... remains to be seen whether this is a turning point, but the authorities do at least seem to be taking steps to limit the risk of a complete meltdown in the banking sector," he added.

There is not much more Russia can do to prop up its currency, which has only been allowed to move in line with the world's currency markets in the past year.

Capital controls, where money is restricted from moving out of the country, are the main, final option.

But earlier the Russian Prime Minister, Dmitry Medvedev, ruled that out.

Speaking at an emergency meeting of of ministers and industry leaders, Mr Medvedev said he was confident that Moscow could contain the crisis: "Central bank and the government have worked out a package of measures to stabilise the situation. What we are seeing today is mainly emotional games.

"It is in our interests to bring order to the markets, no one gains from instability. But at the same time, there is no need for tough regulations, as used to happen in the past. It does not bring anything good - we shall use market tools."There were also reports of Russians flocking to the shops in a frantic attempt to spend their roubles before prices shoot up. Many were buying cars and home appliances.

A warning from the furniture store Ikea that it would raise prices on Thursday has already resulted in long queues at its store in Moscow.

'Illusion'

The rouble has lost more than half its value against the dollar this year, hit by Western sanctions and the fall in the oil price which have both weakened the Russian economy.

Russia's economy is expected to shrink next year, although the amount by which it does is closely linked to the price of oil, with the economy rising or falling in line with that.

On Wednesday, the benchmark price of Brent crude oil was down 20 cents at $59.66 a barrel. On Tuesday, the Brent price had fallen below $59 before recovering.

US President Barack Obama is expected to sign legislation this week authorising new economic sanctions on Russia.

However, the German government's co-ordinator for relations with Russia, Gernot Erler, said oil prices, and not sanctions, were the reason the Russian economy was struggling.

"It's an illusion to think that if the sanctions were to fall away tomorrow, the Russian economy would suddenly be all right again," he said.

BBC News - Russia plans new measures to stabilise the rouble

@sgarg @pmaitra

 

[prohumanity]

Re: Fall of Russian ruble injects uncertainty into global economy

Oil situation is more complex than we think. On one hand, there is very slow economic growth throughout the world. US growing at 2%, European economy growing almost close to 0%, China and India growth is in 5 to 6% area. So, Global death of demand for Oil is a major factor. On the other hand, Middle East is huge economic turmoil and is desperate to sell oil to survive this economic meltdown. We are in DEFLATIONARY spiral. G-7 in cohuts with Saudis have very well - coordinated attack on Russian currency via Hedge Funds and institutional channels to create chaos in Russia and hoping for "regime change in Russia" (which I don't believe will happen) It may be a plan to break the BRICS ...one brick at a time..starting from Russia, going to Brazil,then, China and India and completing with South Africa. This is to atleast delay the inevitable ..that is formation of a Multi-Polar World Order.
Lets watch carefully and see how it plays out. Big boys are on all-out attack.

 

[asianobserve]

Re: Fall of Russian ruble injects uncertainty into global economy

China, Japan, South Korea, and other Asian countries produce and export oil to collude with the US?

Read my post, I said there is weak demand right now oil from Asia that is causing the oil price plunge, so you are also saying that US is colluding with these countries (the biggest Asian oil consumer is the China)? The main reason for the slow down in demand is slowing economic activity which gets factored into oil pricing.

Here's a clue to you on how oil is priced, it is prospectively priced on the commodities market based on projected demand and supply.

 

[asianobserve]

Re: Fall of Russian ruble injects uncertainty into global economy

Oil situation is more complex than we think. On one hand, there is very slow economic growth throughout the world. US growing at 2%, European economy growing almost close to 0%, China and India growth is in 5 to 6% area. So, Global death of demand for Oil is a major factor. On the other hand, Middle East is huge economic turmoil and is desperate to sell oil to survive this economic meltdown. We are in DEFLATIONARY spiral. G-7 in cohuts with Saudis have very well - coordinated attack on Russian currency via Hedge Funds and institutional channels to create chaos in Russia and hoping for "regime change in Russia" (which I don't believe will happen) It may be a plan to break the BRICS ...one brick at a time..starting from Russia, going to Brazil,then, China and India and completing with South Africa. This is to atleast delay the inevitable ..that is formation of a Multi-Polar World Order.
Lets watch carefully and see how it plays out. Big boys are on all-out attack.

So you are saying that the global economic slowdown is a conspiracy by the West?

 

[pmaitra]

Re: Russia plans new measures to stabilise the rouble

I read this news article. The last two paragraphs are interesting.

Shall we merge this with the one below?

http://defenceforumindia.com/forum/...-injects-uncertainty-into-global-economy.html

@Singh, @Ray Sir?

 

[asianobserve]

Re: Russia plans new measures to stabilise the rouble

I heard a lot of posts in other threads that Ruble devaluation is good for Russia and that that is what it wants... SO why the desperate attempt to stop the devaluation? (Central bank intervention and draconian 17% interest rate) Those tools are not used by a government who wants a devaluation...

 

[lookieloo]

Re: Russia plans new measures to stabilise the rouble

I heard a lot of posts in other threads that Ruble devaluation is good for Russia and that that is what it wants... SO why the desperate attempt to stop the devaluation? (Central bank intervention and draconian 17% interest rate) Those tools are not used by a government who wants a devaluation...

One year ago, I thought Putin was playing chess whist everyone else fumbled with checkers. Who'da thought he'd be so undone within months by the compulsion of his own foolish pride to support a few drunk-ass war reenactors in what was formerly a pliant buffer-nation?

Things making the situation worse Pooty:

-Russian troll-culture (from YouTubers to the highest diplomatic levels)
-Belated Saudi efforts to crush shell-oil boom in US (too late, the well-heads are already in place)
-Idiotic-looking attempts at economic gimmickry (like offering question-free citizenship to wealthy immigrants)

 

[sgarg]

Re: Russia plans new measures to stabilise the rouble

I heard a lot of posts in other threads that Ruble devaluation is good for Russia and that that is what it wants... SO why the desperate attempt to stop the devaluation? (Central bank intervention and draconian 17% interest rate) Those tools are not used by a government who wants a devaluation...

Devaluation is not bad, panic is not good. The movement must be gradual and orderly. It is logical to take action against sudden movement.

I expected capital controls but is has not happened so far. It is true that capital controls can distort the fx market even more. So capital controls is not a long term solution. However capital controls can plug the gap for a short while and may be needed if attack on Ruble becomes too severe.

The stability in Russia will come by decreasing dependence on mineral sector. The industry and agriculture will require a lot of extra attention. This requires a lot of hard work. It remains to be seen if Russia can rise up to the challenge. One good thing so far is that Russia's industrial output is stable. We need to watch this number.

Industrial Production in Russia decreased 0.40 percent in November of 2014 over the same month in the previous year. Industrial Production in Russia averaged 2.49 percent from 2006 until 2014, reaching an all time high of 10.90 percent in May of 2006 and a record low of -16.90 percent in January of 2009. Industrial Production in Russia is reported by the Federal State Statistics Service.