Dokhlam Standoff 2.0 : PLA Troops Re-deploy (Oct 2017)

Hiranyaksha

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https://theprint.in/2017/10/26/exclusive-doklam-satellite-imagery-chinese-troops/

Source: IDRW

Exclusive: Chinese troops are amassed near Doklam plateau, satellite images show
COLONEL VINAYAK BHAT (RETD) 26 October, 2017


Satellite imagery of Chinese Army positions near the border
They are armed with camouflaged tanks and missiles, images from international satellites accessed by ThePrint reveal.

New Delhi: The bitter two-month military face-off between India and China in Doklam was resolved peacefully on 28 August, after New Delhi and Beijing announced that they had agreed to withdraw their troops from the disputed tri-junction area.

But exclusive satellite images accessed by ThePrint show that there is continued unease in the region, and the military situation has not normalised as a significant Chinese troop build-up continues close to the contested point on the Doklam plateau. These units have heavy and lethal equipment not noted in the past in this region.

Although the plateau itself is not contested as it was during the stand-off, the build-up gives the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) the ability to quickly escalate matters at a time of its choosing.

Sources in the Indian government told ThePrint that New Delhi was closely monitoring the developments, but added that there is no cause for alarm.

The satellite images accessed by ThePrint show the PLA had a brigade-plus strength deployed in Yadong County, within two hours striking distance of the Doklam flashpoint by vehicles even in September, after both sides had agreed to withdraw.

Satellite imagery of 6 September shows a brigade strength of troops (approximately 2,000-3,000 soldiers) deployed north of Yadong town. These are not routine deployments as older satellite images of the same area do not show PLA presence here in the past.


Satellite imagery showing the deployment of troops before 2017
During the Doklam face-off, the PLA had an estimated 300 troops in the tri-junction area of India, Bhutan and China. India also had the same number of troops then.

The general area covered by the satellite images with ThePrint is 13 km west of Jomolhari mountain, considered the consort of the Kanchenjunga in the Himalayas. The area is located in the Yadong County of Tibet, and borders Thimpu district of Bhutan.



Traditionally, China has used the area east of Yarla Shampo, which is approximately 300 km north-east of the Doklam area in question, for training purposes. The PLA is not known to have deployed troops in the Doklam area in the past for training or any other purpose.

Fighting equipment
Images show the menacing concentration of a large body of troops and equipment close to the contested area – all troops are under camouflage nets depending on the colour of the ground. The troops deployed along nullahs(rivulets) where the ground is green, due to the availability of water and grass, have green camouflage nets while the others have desert camouflage nets.

Specialised fighting equipment – possibly tanks and armoured fighting vehicles – are concealed under a good camouflage that almost merges with the background. What seem to be large tank transporters have also been hidden under camouflaged nets in six groups.


A satellite image showing potentially mechanised camouflaged units
Partially camouflaged ammunition carrying vehicles are parked across the road with revetments – retaining walls or barricades – around them. There seems to be an effort made to conceal the vehicles by parking them back to back, and projecting them as larger, tank-transporter vehicles. This probably is part of the deception policy of the PLA.

The deployment of troops is widespread with most units well dispersed to avoid effects of shelling or bombing. The entire brigade is covering an area of almost 27 sq km. But the dispersed deployment brings in a major disadvantage of track discipline.

Track discipline
When any disciplined force like an army is deployed in tents, it ensures minimum movement to avoid detection by eyes in the sky. The movement of troops either in vehicles or on foot creates additional tracks and exposes locations like the operations room and signal centre.

A careful commander ensures that only old tracks are used by his troops, and no new tracks are created, referred to as track discipline in military jargon.

This track discipline needs to be of the highest order to avoid detection by satellite imagery or aerial coverage by UAVs. The track discipline of the PLA in this area has been poor – one of the reasons for the detection of this well-camouflaged and well-dispersed brigade by satellites.


Satellite imagery showing track discipline in the region
The units identified seem to suggest it is a deployment of a combined arms brigade consisting of all the elements of the PLA ground force, rather than a simple brigade with three infantry units.

Roads built by China in this part of Tibet are black topped with large berms – flat strips of land – and the road coming up to the contested area of Doklam is wide enough to sustain heavy traffic including motorised/mechanised vehicles.

The importance of this deployment also increases considering the areas of North Sikkim, between Gurudongmar Lake and Mt Chomo Yummo, have been an eyesore for the Chinese for years. This area is only 50 km west of the new deployment in Doklam.


Satellite imagery showing the general area of Doklam
Comparison of this protruding thumb of North Sikkim indicated in the image below illustrates the point better. The brigade strength identified by this report is located 50 km from both the protruding thumb and the Doklam area. The brigade could be used to occupy either area in as little as two hours.

Units and headquarters
There are a large number of units possibly deployed in and around this area. The ones that could be identified are explained below:

Logistics Unit: A possible logistics unit has been identified in this area. It has 26 second line transport units used by the PLA clearly visible without any camouflage. There four possible stores under camouflage nets for clothing, rations, ammunition etc.


Satellite imagery showing potential logistics units in the region
Two of these stores are dug out and two are overground, suggesting that the two underground ones are probably ordnance stores. There are six large tents, possibly for storing winter clothing or other such stocks. There are many other tents and vehicles under camouflage nets observed as well.

Air Defence and Artillery Unit: There are two very prominent artillery deployments observed in the area – two units of six guns each.


Satellite imagery showing potential anti-aircraft units
The one on the west is probably the air defence sub-unit and the one on the east is probably artillery pieces.

Mechanised Unit: There is a unit very well camouflaged, possibly consisting of a mechanised unit with transporters in a group of six nets.

There are vehicles partially camouflaged located to the north of the road, probably carrying ammunition and/or other support equipment.

Headquarters: There are a large numbers of tents concentrated in an area observed in the satellite image. This could possibly be a formation headquarters. There is a large square of camouflaged nets with an opening and a parking space. Three vehicles are observed parked. The area around this concentration of camouflaged nets shows large numbers of vehicular tracks suggesting regular, heavy use.

Contd to next post.
 

Hiranyaksha

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Satellite imagery showing the possible headquarters in Doklam

This appears to be the operations room, partially underground and covered with camouflage nets. There are a few tents with camouflaged nets south of the operations room with more vehicular movement observed, suggesting these are probably officers’ tents-cum-offices.

Another set of tents with small vehicles is observed in the same area with cables connecting to other tents. This possibly is the signals centre for communications. There also are a large number of tents under camouflage nets and vehicles observed which are possibly support troops for the headquarters.

There are a large number of tell-tale signs left behind by the previous deployment during the Doklam stand-off. One of them clearly indicates that there was an air defence battery with eight guns.

The sudden increase in Chinese presence of 3,000 troops with assorted mechanised vehicles in the Doklam area will make it a huge challenge for the Indian Army to face.

Colonel Vinayak Bhat (retd) is a Military Intelligence veteran of the Indian Army with vast experience of satellite imagery analysis. He has worked as a Chinese interpreter and is a specialist on PLA and Pakistan’s armed forces. He tweets @rajfortyseven
 

Hiranyaksha

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https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...n-since-mao-and-deng/articleshow/61234965.cms

Why Xi's unprecedented rise could be a worrying sign for India
TOI Contributor|
Updated: Oct 26, 2017, 05.51 PM IST

By Dhruva Jaishankar

The National Congress of the Communist Party, held every five years, is the closest thing authoritarian China has to an election. The most recent Congress - the 19th - was held October 18-24, and was an occasion for the over 2,000 delegates to deliberate and agree on policy matters guiding the nation.

It also witnessed the selection of the Party's Central Committee, the 25 member Politburo, the 11 member Central Military Commission, and the 7 member Politburo Standing Committee,which forms the country's most exclusive leadership circle.

Observers in China and around the world had been on the lookout for signs about the degree of centralised power that will now lie with President Xi Jinping, and hints about his future succession plans. The implications are potentially significant.

Among other things, they will affect India's economic prospects, border security, neighbourhood relations, and global ambitions. With the unveiling yesterday of the Politburo Standing Committee, we now have some tentative answers, although they are far from encouraging.

First, on policy, Xi laid out his thoughts in a marathon three-and-a-half hours speech on October 18, the central theme of which was 'Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era'.

With the goal of achieving "national rejuvenation", Xi has advocated a "people-centred philosophy of development" grounded in "Four Comprehensives": the continued centrality and strengthening of Communist Party rule, further reform, "law-based governance", and the building of a "moderately prosperous society".

Xi also spoke of the need for a strong military capable of winning wars and "a new type of international relations". A cynical reading of Xi's speech would suggest that the party's governance philosophy now clearly constitutes a mix of authoritarianism, populism and nationalism.

This broad approach has Xi's strong personal imprint and 'Xi Jinping Thought' has now been written into the Communist Party's charter. This week, the 19th Congress "unanimously" agreed that Xi Jinping Thought will guide the party for the foreseeable future.

Xi and the Party are now effectively one and the same, and opposition to one constitutes opposition to the other. Moreover, the inclusion of Xi Jinping Thought in the charter now sets China's president on par with only Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping as major leaders of Communist China identified with their own philosophies.

The second indicator of Xi's power - the politics, rather than the policy - resulted in more ambiguous outcomes. To some degree, there was steady continuity, particularly on accounts that directly affect relations with India. General Zhao Zongqi, commander of the People's Liberation Army's vast Western Theatre Command (with responsibility for the entire border with India), has retained his position in the Central Committee. The country's top diplomat Yang Jiechi, who acts as the special represen ..

Of greater curiosity, observers were looking to see whether the 69-year-old Wang Qishan, who has led Xi's anti-corruption campaign and is sometimes described as the country's second most powerful person, would retain his position on the Standing Committee, in contravention of informal age limitation rules.

Wang's retention would have been a key indicator of Xi's dominance over various rival factions within the Party, and a sign that Xi would have a recent precedent to hold on to power for another five-year term beyond 2022 after he crosses the age threshold of 68. However, Wang was not included in the Central Committee list, and is expected to be replaced by new Standing Committee member Zhao Leji.

Furthermore, questions lingered about who would fill the leadership vacuum caused by Xi's purge of those who have opposed his rise to power. Bo Xilai, the charismatic head of the party in Chongqing and once considered a potential rival of Xi's, was found guilty of corruption in 2013 and sentenced to life imprisonment after a high profile trial. Xi also went after the old guard. In 2015, Zhou Yongkang, once one of the country's most powerful people as head of internal security and law enforcement , was similarly charged and sentenced. Sun Zhengcai, who until recently was considered a future senior leader, was suddenly expelled from the party.

Eyes were therefore on a handful of younger political leaders as potential successors to Xi. Hu Chunhua of Guangdong Province was seen as an earlier frontrunner, but the rise of Chen Min'er as the party chief of Chongqing following Sun's expulsion had created an alternative. Heilongjiang chief Zhang Qingwei, a former aerospace engineer, represented an outside possibility. But as it turned out, none were appointed to the Standing Committee, leaving open the questions about Xi's likely successor.

In sum, the 19th Congress has seen Xi consolidate power to a degree not seen since the days of Deng Xiaoping and possibly since Mao Zedong. He has maintained the authoritarian, populist, and nationalist tone that has characterised his presidency to date, and now has fewer checks on his power and vision.

At the same time, questions about his succession remain as open as ever. For India, as with other countries around the region that have been confronted with China's growing assertiveness under Xi, these are discouraging signs.
 

Screambowl

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Let there be whatever it will be good for both ... they will also realize that they can be hurt and in India also people will realize that freedom doesn't come for free so don't mismanage and chalta hai attitude is harming.
honey do bc ek baar.. China se zada India mein sudharney ki zarurat hai.
 

LordOfTheUnderworlds

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Does anyone know how much firm control Xi has over army? Before CCP election some speculated there is a rival faction in Chinese army.
 

Screambowl

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Does anyone know how much firm control Xi has over army? Before CCP election some speculated there is a rival faction in Chinese army.
he has been lifted to the level of Mao and Deng because Xi's ideology the ' The four comprehensives' part of ''Xi Jingping thought '' has become a part of their constitution particularly with his name. Earlier only Mao and Dzeng have been named in the constitution. It's not possible without PLA's support.
 

pankaj nema

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Bhai Log ; look at this Gentleman from Pakistan

Saying India deployed 1.25 Lakh Troops In Doklam and Therefore China compromised


 

Hiranyaksha

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https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...t-dokalam-government/articleshow/61271422.cms

No new development at Dokalam: Government
PTI|
Updated: Oct 27, 2017, 04.21 PM IST

India today said there are no new developments at Dokalam and its vicinity and that reports to the contrary were incorrect.

"I would like to reiterate that there is no new development at the face-off site and its vicinity since the August 28 disengagement," External Affairs Ministry Spokesperson Raveesh Kumar said.

He was asked about a media report about China ramping up its military presence in areas close to Dokalam.

"The status quo prevails in the area and any suggestion to the contrary is incorrect and mischievous," said Kumar.
Troops of India and China were locked in a 73-day-long standoff in Dokalam since June 16 after the Indian side stopped the building of a road in the disputed area by the Chinese Army. Bhutan and China have a dispute over Dokalam.

The MEA on August 28 had announced that both sides were disengaging from the face-off site.
 

captscooby81

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He has absolute iron grip on the CMC which is the leadership of the PLA from the 11 commanders it has been reduced to 7 after the restructuring of the PLA theatre commands and Xi is the only non military person of the CMC ..He had removed the commanders in PLA who were very close to the jiang zemin faction ...the entire CMC is filled with Xi s men now ..

Does anyone know how much firm control Xi has over army? Before CCP election some speculated there is a rival faction in Chinese army.
 

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