Does India want to become a superpower

sob

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Our leaders and commentators have been trying to proclaim India as the emerging super power in the world. But the question that goes begging that do we have the strategic thinking and more importantly the desire to become a global power. Today neither can we project ourselves as a Military Power and neither as an economic power. Rhetoric alone cannot give us the respect from the other nations, we need to have the substance and sadly the leaders have failed us and at a very basic level even we as citizens of India have let the nation down.


India: Can India become a great power? | The Economist




NOBODY doubts that China has joined the ranks of the great powers: the idea of a G2 with America is mooted, albeit prematurely. India is often spoken of in the same breath as China because of its billion-plus population, economic promise, value as a trading partner and growing military capabilities. All five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council support—however grudgingly—India's claim to join them. But whereas China's rise is a given, India is still widely seen as a nearly-power that cannot quite get its act together.

That is a pity, for as a great power, India would have much to offer. Although poorer and less economically dynamic than China, India has soft power in abundance. It is committed to democratic institutions, the rule of law and human rights. As a victim of jihadist violence, it is in the front rank of the fight against terrorism. It has a huge and talented diaspora. It may not want to be co-opted by the West but it shares many Western values. It is confident and culturally rich. If it had a permanent Security Council seat (which it has earned by being one of the most consistent contributors to UN peacekeeping operations) it would not instinctively excuse and defend brutal regimes. Unlike China and Russia, it has few skeletons in its cupboard. With its enormous coastline and respected navy (rated by its American counterpart, with which it often holds exercises, as up to NATO standard) India is well-placed to provide security in a critical part of the global commons.

Yet India's huge potential to be a force for stability and an upholder of the rules-based international system is far from being realised. One big reason is that the country lacks the culture to pursue an active security policy. Despite a rapidly rising defence budget, forecast to be the world's fourth-largest by 2020, India's politicians and bureaucrats show little interest in grand strategy . The foreign service is ridiculously feeble—India's 1.2 billion people are represented by about the same number of diplomats as Singapore's 5m. The leadership of the armed forces and the political-bureaucratic establishment operate in different worlds. The defence ministry is chronically short of military expertise.

These weaknesses partly reflect a pragmatic desire to make economic development at home the priority. India has also wisely kept generals out of politics (a lesson ignored elsewhere in Asia, not least by Pakistan, with usually parlous results). But Nehruvian ideology also plays a role. At home, India mercifully gave up Fabian economics in the 1990s (and reaped the rewards). But diplomatically, 66 years after the British left, it still clings to the post-independence creeds of semi-pacifism and "non-alignment": the West is not to be trusted.

India's tradition of strategic restraint has in some ways served the country well. Having little to show for several limited wars with Pakistan and one with China, India tends to respond to provocations with caution. It has long-running territorial disputes with both its big neighbours, but it usually tries not to inflame them (although it censors any maps which accurately depict where the border lies, something its press shamefully tolerates). India does not go looking for trouble, and that has generally been to its advantage.

But the lack of a strategic culture comes at a cost. Pakistan is dangerous and unstable, bristling with nuclear weapons, torn apart by jihadist violence and vulnerable to an army command threatened by radical junior officers. Yet India does not think coherently about how to cope. The government hopes that increased trade will improve relations, even as the army plans for a blitzkrieg-style attack across the border. It needs to work harder at healing the running sore of Kashmir and supporting Pakistan's civilian government. Right now, for instance, Pakistan is going through what should be its first transition from one elected civilian government to the next. India's prime minister, Manmohan Singh, should support this process by arranging to visit the country's next leader.

India should start to shape its own destiny and the fate of its region. It needs to take strategy more seriously and build a foreign service that is fitting for a great power—one that is at least three times bigger. It needs a more professional defence ministry and a unified defence staff that can work with the country's political leadership. It needs to let private and foreign firms into its moribund state-run defence industry. And it needs a well-funded navy that can become both a provider of maritime security along some of the world's busiest sea-lanes and an expression of India's willingness to shoulder the responsibilities of a great power.

Most of all, though, India needs to give up its outdated philosophy of non-alignment. Since the nuclear deal with America in 2005, it has shifted towards the west—it tends to vote America's way in the UN, it has cut its purchases of Iranian oil, it collaborates with NATO in Afghanistan and co-ordinates with the West in dealing with regional problems such as repression in Sri Lanka and transition in Myanmar—but has done so surreptitiously. Making its shift more explicit, by signing up with Western-backed security alliances, would be good for the region, and the world. It would promote democracy in Asia and help bind China into international norms. That might not be in India's short-term interest, for it would risk antagonising China. But looking beyond short-term self-interest is the kind of thing a great power does.

That India can become a great power is not in doubt. The real question is whether it wants to.
 

sob

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Virendra

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I think the desire is there. Questions are on plan and implementation.
Is India really working towards becoming a superpower ?
 

sob

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Another related article from the Economist

India as a great power: Know your own strength | The Economist

UNLIKE many other Asian countries—and in stark contrast to neighbouring Pakistan—India has never been run by its generals. The upper ranks of the powerful civil service of the colonial Raj were largely Hindu, while Muslims were disproportionately represented in the army. On gaining independence the Indian political elite, which had a strong pacifist bent, was determined to keep the generals in their place. In this it has happily succeeded.

But there have been costs. One is that India exhibits a striking lack of what might be called a strategic culture. It has fought a number of limited wars—one with China, which it lost, and several with Pakistan, which it mostly won, if not always convincingly—and it faces a range of threats, including jihadist terrorism and a persistent Maoist insurgency. Yet its political class shows little sign of knowing or caring how the country's military clout should be deployed.

Apart from the always-vocal press and New Delhi's lively think-tanks, India and its leaders show little interest in military or strategic issues. Strategic defence reviews like those that take place in America, Britain and France, informed by serving officers and civil servants but led by politicians, are unknown in India. The armed forces regard the Ministry of Defence as woefully ignorant on military matters, with few of the skills needed to provide support in areas such as logistics and procurement (they also resent its control over senior promotions). Civil servants pass through the ministry rather than making careers there. The Ministry of External Affairs, which should be crucial to informing the country's strategic vision, is puny. Singapore, with a population of 5m, has a foreign service about the same size as India's. China's is eight times larger.

The main threats facing India are clear: an unstable, fading but dangerous Pakistan; a swaggering and intimidating China. One invokes feelings of superiority close to contempt, the other inferiority and envy. In terms of India's regional status and future prospects as a "great power", China matters most; but the vexatious relationship with Pakistan still dominates military thinking.

With the army training for a blitzkrieg against Pakistan and the navy preparing to confront Chinese blue-water adventurism, it is easy to get the impression that each service is planning for its own war without much thought to the requirements of the other two. Lip-service is paid to co-operation in planning, doctrine and operations, but this "jointness" is mostly aspirational. India lacks a chief of the defence staff of the kind most countries have. The government, ever-suspicious of the armed forces, appears not to want a single point of military advice. Nor do the service chiefs, jealous of their own autonomy.

The absence of a strategic culture and the distrust between civilian-run ministries and the armed forces has undermined military effectiveness in another way—by contributing to a procurement system even more dysfunctional than those of other countries. The defence industrial sector, dominated by the sprawling Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), remains stuck in state control and the country's protectionist past. According to a recent defence-ministry audit, only 29% of the products developed by the DRDO in the past 17 years have entered service with the armed forces. The organisation is a byword for late-arriving and expensive flops.

Instead of clear strategic thinking, India shuffles along, impeded by its caution and bureaucratic inertia. The symbol of these failings is India's reluctance to reform a defence-industrial base that wastes huge amounts of money, supplies the armed forces with substandard kit and leaves the country dependent on foreigners for military modernisation.

Since independence India has got away with having a weak strategic culture. Its undersized military ambitions have kept it out of most scrapes and allowed it to concentrate on other things instead. But as China bulks up, India's strategic shortcomings are becoming a liability. And they are an obstacle to India's dreams of becoming a true 21st-century power.
 

sob

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I think the desire is there. Questions are on plan and implementation.
Is India really working towards becoming a superpower ?
The desire is there in the mind and in the dreams, but are we willing to get our hands dirty to make it happen -- this is the billion dollar question.

The recent case of dithering over the approach in Afghanistan post US withdrawal is a case in point.
 

nrj

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India does not have global aspirations, it never had. We are more or less happy with ourselves.

India - Superpower is media's chewing gum.

Making its shift more explicit, by signing up with Western-backed security alliances, would be good for the region, and the world.
We already live in enough hostile neighborhood. No one wants to make it worse. Such shift will be good for western interests but not India.

It would promote democracy in Asia and help bind China into international norms.
Exporting democracy is USA's job.

International norms are changing & will change further to China's rise. West should accept it gracefully.

We need aggressive BRIC.

West can not regain its bargaining power in world at expense of making India more vulnerable.

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Right now, for instance, Pakistan is going through what should be its first transition from one elected civilian government to the next. India's prime minister, Manmohan Singh, should support this process by arranging to visit the country's next leader.
Oh please! Indian prime ministers have wasted enough time visiting & hosting Paki leaders. They have more experience on how Paki Govt acts more than anyone. Making Pak economically dependent is the only way forward.

But diplomatically, 66 years after the British left, it still clings to the post-independence creeds of semi-pacifism and "non-alignment": the West is not to be trusted.
There was nothing wrong with NAM. Today also we have moved away from non-alignment quietly without making any noise. Indian relations with West are better than ever. We do not need to engage in any formalities to abandon NAM. Flourishing Indo-West relations while still maintaining independence in foreign policy is one of the best achievement of Indian establishment in last 2 decades.

--

I don't know why but author seems to be of opinion that India should be on lap of West.
 

sob

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@nrj, sorry missed out on marking to your attention

But do you really feel that we can project our power even in our own neighbourhood.
 
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Bangalorean

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This statement needs to be addressed by our leaders ( Political, Diplomats and Defence Forces)



I am marking to the gentlemen for their comments on this @Ray, @Yusuf, @Bangalorean @thakur_ritesh, @Kunal Biswas @sayareakd @leathelforce @p2prada @Singh @Virendra
Like Virendra said, the desire is definitely there. Who would not want his nation to be a "superpower"?

That said, a hard reality check would show us that we have severe issues to overcome before we can get there. I will avoid cliches like "our corrrrrrruput paaaaliticians are stopping us" - if I had to put my finger on the single biggest aspect that is a serious hindrance to our becoming a great power, it is our nation's collective obsession with NehruGandhi era socialistic, populist and mai-baap sarkar policies. These policies have eaten into the vitals of our nation and have sapped our country of its massive inherent potential.

It might sound to many, that I am beating the same drum and fixating on economic aspects in unrelated issues. But the core issue that is the deep-seated reason for our issues is the very same NehruGandhi brand of bloodsucking populism/pseudosocialism. Chinese trolls on DFI often say that India cannot fight a war because a war cannot be fought by "importing an Army". While their intention might be to troll, there is an eternal truth in those words. Let us leave aside pathetic foes like Pakistan. A "superpower" entails being completely self-sufficient in the capability to project power - self sufficient technologically, and not in terms of manpower. Power projection requires state of the art technology and equipment which can be mass produced during wartime.

Needless to say, our current policy of defence production is a joke. If we reform our ways today, it might yield fruit in 20 years or so. The more we delay, the more laughable the goal of "superpowerdom" will seem.
 
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sayareakd

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I think question is can we take tough decisions, like what happen with Marines case (sadly SC take decision).

if we can prove yourself that we have arrived with our actions then others will take notice of this fact. Plus we have to do it smartly.

we do want to be called superpower, new generations wants it but we have old guards in power and senior IAS lobby is old and cautious
 
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Kunal Biswas

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Ask me, I will tell you its not a desire but necessity for all those who have similar ambition..

Why is the necessity ? coz everything is easier in this world who got bigger muscles & Smart Mind.. FACT !

It is that simple as that..
 

From Realm of D&T

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We are already a Regional Superpower

We will not be a Global Superpower at least for next 2 decades
 

sob

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In recent times the only one occasion where we were able to project ourselves in positive light was the handling of the nuclear fallout by the ABV Govt. leading to series of meetings between Jaswant Singh- Strobe Talbot. These meetings/negotiations were conducted between two equals and India leveraged it's strengths to get the US to accept it's Nuclear Status. This was a coup for our leadership.

But sadly such occasions are a rarity and not a norm.
 

sob

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We are already a Regional Superpower

We will not be a Global Superpower at least for next 2 decades
Which world do you inhabit? which region are we a super power- India Gate/Gateway of India??? Get serious we have a country like Maldives cooking a snook at us and we cannot do anything. Bhutan is drifting to the Chinese, what is our response?
 

Virendra

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I have doubts on even the claim that we're a fully recognized & operational regional power.
What happened to Chamel Singh in Pakistani prison?
What happened after eyewitnesses in Pakistan exposed how he was killed by Jail officials?
Did the GOI take any concrete actions?
We've made a mess of Sri Lanka affairs.
Nepal has been in doldrums for so long.
Maldives slipped out of our range and there's no denying that.
There's very slow progress on Bangladesh.
Pakistan is hopeless as usual.

I don't see how we're an established regional power. In my opinion we're a debatable/inconsistent regional power.

The desire is there in the mind and in the dreams, but are we willing to get our hands dirty to make it happen -- this is the billion dollar question.
About getting the hands dirty, we are the people who wipe the house ultra clean from inside and then come out to dump all the garbage on road, right in front.
Soprry about the bad example but no, we're not in the mindset of getting the hands dirty on national agendas.

Regards,
Virendra
 

From Realm of D&T

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Which world do you inhabit? which region are we a super power- India Gate/Gateway of India??? Get serious we have a country like Maldives cooking a snook at us and we cannot do anything. Bhutan is drifting to the Chinese, what is our response?
We are the most power full nation in south Asia when it comes to Economy, Military strength, Space Tech etc.

Apart from military and nukes, Pak cant challenge us in other fields

Get serious we have a country like Maldives cooking a snook at us and we cannot do anything. Bhutan is drifting to the Chinese, what is our response?
Our diplomats will work on that

and did you forget the firm stance of GOI in Italian marines case and how Italy had to back off?
 

sob

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First of all what is South Asia. It is India and the rest are too puny to consider but the fact that our influence does not cover them despite this speaks volumes.

Pakistan can get away with murder and we cannot do anything-- is this signs of a regional power?

Maldives-- we do not have a clue and for the time being we have lost it.

In the case of the Marines it was the SC and not GOI who got the Italians back.
 

sob

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@LETHALFORCE , could not send a PM to you. Need your input on this.
 
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sayareakd

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I must say that we should have send at least 10,000 or para military forces (army on deputation with para military) in Afghanistan, provided we are able to take casualties.
 

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