Significant news: India Policy May Trigger $39 Billion of Share Sales (Update1)
India Policy May Trigger $39 Billion of Share Sales (Update1)
By Rajhkumar K Shaaw and Veronica Navarro Espinosa
Aug. 14 (Bloomberg) -- India may trigger as much as 1.9 trillion rupees ($39 billion) in stock sales, equivalent to five years of equity offerings, with a proposal to limit stakes of controlling shareholders.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s government is considering a plan that would require at least 25 percent of a company’s stock to be traded. The rule would prompt equity sales in 560 of Mumbai’s 3,335 most-active stocks, such as NMDC Ltd. and Steel Authority of India Ltd., according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The changes may encourage foreign investment by bringing Indian regulations in line with the U.S., U.K. and Hong Kong, said Anshul Krishan, the Mumbai-based head of Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s India financing group. The sales, equal to about 4 percent of India’s $1 trillion stock market, probably won’t affect prices if they’re staggered over time, said Purav Jhaveri, senior investment strategist at Franklin Global Advisers.
“The 25 percent minimum would be good for the long-term Indian market,” Seth Freeman, chief executive officer of EM Capital Management LLC in San Francisco, which advises investors on emerging markets and runs the EM Capital India Gateway Fund, said in an e-mailed response to questions. “There are many very attractive companies with small floats that investors would like to be able to invest in.”
The rule change would require the government, whose constitution embraces socialism, to reduce dominant stakes in key industries such as steelmaking, oil and electricity supply. The top 10 companies that would have to sell stock are state-run, accounting for about 80 percent of the total by value.
Sensex Surges
The Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensitive Index, or Sensex, has climbed 60 percent this year, the ninth-best performer among 89 measures tracked by Bloomberg. Growth in Asia’s third-largest economy may accelerate to 7.75 percent after the government initiated stimulus plans to bolster banks’ capital and spur consumer spending, according to the finance ministry.
International funds bought 356.3 billion rupees of Indian stocks this year through Aug. 12, compared with record net sales of 530 billion rupees for all of 2008, according to data on the Securities and Exchange Board of India Web site.
Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said in his July 6 budget speech that a rule requiring a public float of at least 25 percent for listed companies should be enforced uniformly, even for state-run enterprises that had been exempted. The government plans to boost funding for a rural jobs program by selling shares in some state-run companies.
No Minimum
Rules allow companies with a free-float worth at least 1 billion rupees to have as little as 10 percent traded, while there is no minimum for state-run enterprises, the ministry’s Web site says.
“The average public float in Indian listed companies is less than 15 percent,” Mukherjee said. “Deep, non-manipulable markets require larger and diversified public shareholdings.”
The Sensex has returned 203 percent over the past five years, second in Asia only to Indonesia. Since 2005, companies have raised 1.89 trillion rupees in share sales, including 116 billion rupees in January last year by Mumbai-based Reliance Power Ltd. that marked the country’s biggest initial public offering. New Delhi-based DLF Ltd., India’s largest real estate developer, sold 92 billion rupees of stock in June 2007.
Government Control
India’s government plans to sell 8.38 percent of NMDC, the nation’s largest iron-ore producer, Steel Secretary Pramod Rastogi said Aug. 5. The stake would fetch 120 billion rupees at current prices, he said. The government holds 98.4 percent in Hyderabad-based NMDC, and 85.8 percent of New Delhi-based Steel Authority of India, the nation’s second-biggest producer, according to Bloomberg data.
“The sheer magnitude of offloading involved may result in an overhang on the secondary capital markets,” Jagannadham Thunuguntla, the head of equities at SMC Capitals Ltd. in New Delhi, said in an interview. “The capital market may find it difficult to absorb such heavy equity.”
GMR Infrastructure Ltd., based in Bangalore, scrapped a $500 million international sale on June 30 as at least 40 companies announced plans to sell more than 350 billion rupees of shares, mostly to foreign institutional investors.
The Securities and Exchange Board of India advocates “a phased approach, as companies may need time” to sell shares, N. Hariharan, a Mumbai-based spokesman for the market regulator, said in an e-mail Aug. 7.
‘Phased Manner’
The proposal “should be positive for markets if introduced in a phased manner,” Franklin’s Jhaveri said in an e-mailed response to questions. Franklin Templeton Investments in San Mateo, California manages $482.4 billion worldwide, including more than $3 billion in Indian stocks.
The Finance Ministry sought public comment on the plan on its Web site July 9. Singh’s administration plans to take up the issue after completing 100 days in office, Junior Finance Minister Namo Narain Meena said in a written statement to parliament in New Delhi on Aug. 4. Singh was sworn in on May 22.
The changes are important for protecting shareholders in India, said Andrew Foster, who oversees $2 billion in assets, including Indian securities, at Matthews International Capital Management LCC in San Francisco.
“Such a change is a welcome one,” Foster said in an e- mailed response to questions. “Ensuring a reasonable minimum float would help avoid share price manipulation, scams, abuse by majority shareholders, etc. So I think this would constitute a positive structural change.”
To contact the reporters on this story: Rajhkumar K Shaaw in Mumbai at [email protected]; Veronica Espinosa in New York at [email protected]
Last Updated: August 14, 2009 05:36 EDT
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