Dhanush the Indian Bofors

[garg_bharat]

Haldiram ji, cost of production decreases by increasing efficiency - that is automated machines, skilled manpower, manpower discipline.

it rarely decreases by volume.

In case of Dhanush gun, the production agency has a certain capacity. First target is to reach this capacity. (of around 8-10 units per month).

Indian PSU defence industries have not been up to the mark in quality/quantity both.

Quantity has a quality of its own. I agree that USSR was able to churn out a very large amount of equipment. But it also employed a quarter of its GDP in defence. The result was a shortage of capital for other sectors of economy so overall USSR kept on lagging behind in economy.

India cannot do what USSR did. India employs only 3% of GDP for security (includes both external and internal security).

India is growing nicely as it is using capital for productive purposes. There is no point in fighting wars if people are poor. Our first target is to improve living standards in India.

 

[Haldiram]

Dude my query is very specific. You have claimed that if 2000 atags are ordered instead of 100, price will fall by 80%. I am simply asking you to provide me a single instance of whenever it has happened for any weapon system.

He has answered you, you are not able to understand it so he has to give examples to dumb it down. Let me dumb it down, one final time.

If the cost of setting up RnD + factory is 100 million $ and this factory outputs just 10 units of weapons whose sale price is supposed to be 1 million $ each, now the per-unit cost price to the manufacturer, including initial investment becomes 110 million$ (100m for the factory + 10m output)/ 10 units, i.e 11 million $ per unit.

If the same factory manufactures 500 units of weapons, now the cost-per-unit becomes (100m for the factory + 500m output)/500 units = 1.2 m $ per unit.

The more units one manufactures, the more the initial factory investment gets diluted down. It has happened for every single unit everywhere in the world, but the reason it doesn't become apparent to the end user is because the foreign manufacturer keeps all the margin and doesn't pass it on to the end user and the end user here hasn't known anything other than importing things at MRP, so the opportunity cost of this economy of scale is lost on their dense brain. They don't bother to see what the cost price is.

The foreign manufacturer prints thousands of units, sells to the whole world, and gets his own manufacturing cost reduced by 90% without passing it on to the end user, so he is able to give 5% in bribes to the selection panel. It's no big deal for them. It's our tax money being channeled through the foreign vendor to our own end user. The vendor invests this 90% margin to research next gen weapons, and our industry keeps lagging behind. And the end user here tells us that Indians can't manufacture anything.

 

[garg_bharat]

Haldiram ji,

A factory set up to produce 10 units can never produce 500 units. This is in the realm of imagination.

The factory set up to produce 100 units can perhaps produce 10%-20% more.

In the case of defence PSU, the production has been way below installed capacity in most cases. Even when firm orders are there, production remains well below 50% of installed capacity.

The reasons are politicization, trade unions, corruption, apathy etc. It is like nobody cares if it is government money.

Effective leadership does change things as has happened to railways where some factories are producing above capacity. Even technology in railway has improved due to local development.

Defence industries have also improved but long way to go.

 

[garg_bharat]

If anybody noticed, ATAGS resembles M46, the most numerous Russian origin gun in Indian army.
I guess proving ATAGS will take quite some time. Obviously 10 guns will be tried by Army for an extended period of time.

Till then Dhanush and ATHOS will roll out in numbers.

 

[garg_bharat]

It would be perfectly understandable if ATHOS was bought in limited numbers to cater to the needs of the mountain divisions & strike corps, operating where the weight of the gun is a deciding factor due to infrastructure... ifffffff the 39km ranged 155×45 Dhanush wasn't lighter at 12t (155×52 ATHOS weighing 14t has range of 41km) or the super-costly M777 wasn't being bought too.

Right now there are no logical explanations other than someone in Elbit paid someone in Indian Army and/or MOD below the table.

Dhanush reported range is 38km.
ATAGS reported weight is 16 ton. Reported range is 45km (some report said 47km as well). Army has asked to reduce its weight to 12 tons.

Whatever it is, only two guns are produced so far. 10 guns are to be produced for trials.

So let us wait for development and user trials to be completed.

 

[Bleh]

Dhanush reported range is 38km.
ATAGS reported weight is 16 ton. Reported range is 45km (some report said 47km as well). Army has asked to reduce its weight to 12 tons.

Whatever it is, only two guns are produced so far. 10 guns are to be produced for trials.

So let us wait for development and user trials to be completed.

Forget ATAGS... I'm talking about ATHOS & Dhanush, with which the weight bullshit doesn't stand.

Again:
The 38km ranged 155×45 Dhanush is lighter at 12t, nearly matching (& in near future, outclassing) the phoren 155×52 ATHOS weighing 14t has range of 41km.

Clearly weight of something like 155×52 ATAGS with 48km max range can't be brought down below 16t, compared to ATHOS it is larger magazined too... & the army knows it very well. That's the very reason they're asking for it!

 

[Aaj ka hero]

Forget ATAGS... I'm talking about ATHOS & Dhanush, with which the weight bullshit doesn't stand.

Again:
The 39km ranged 155×45 Dhanush is lighter at 12t, nearly matching (& in near future, outclassing) the phoren 155×52 ATHOS weighing 14t has range of 41km.

I will be very happy if there is a source of this 14 ton, I am trying to find it in net and everywhere else not able to find this 14 ton.
Please can you provide this with us.

 

[Defcon 1]

He has answered you, you are not able to understand it so he has to give examples to dumb it down. Let me dumb it down, one final time.

If the cost of setting up RnD + factory is 100 million $ and this factory outputs just 10 units of weapons whose sale price is supposed to be 1 million $ each, now the per-unit cost price to the manufacturer, including initial investment becomes 110 million$ (100m for the factory + 10m output)/ 10 units, i.e 11 million $ per unit.

If the same factory manufactures 500 units of weapons, now the cost-per-unit becomes (100m for the factory + 500m output)/500 units = 1.2 m $ per unit.

The more units one manufactures, the more the initial factory investment gets diluted down. It has happened for every single unit everywhere in the world, but the reason it doesn't become apparent to the end user is because the foreign manufacturer keeps all the margin and doesn't pass it on to the end user and the end user here hasn't known anything other than importing things at MRP, so the opportunity cost of this economy of scale is lost on their dense brain. They don't bother to see what the cost price is.

The foreign manufacturer prints thousands of units, sells to the whole world, and gets his own manufacturing cost reduced by 90% without passing it on to the end user, so he is able to give 5% in bribes to the selection panel. It's no big deal for them. It's our tax money being channeled through the foreign vendor to our own end user. The vendor invests this 90% margin to research next gen weapons, and our industry keeps lagging behind. And the end user here tells us that Indians can't manufacture anything.

Actually it you who is not able to understand basic business arithmetic. There is something called variable cost as well in addition to the fixed cost of setting up the factory. This is the cost of raw materials, labor and tooling used per unit of product manufactured. Final price of the product can never go lesser than variable cost regardless of number of orders. For example, if variable cost is 10 million dollars per unit of product manufactured, no matter how large the order is, the final price can never go below 10 million dollars per unit.

Since both fixed and variable costs of atags are not known, it is simply impossible to prove that an order of 2000 guns will decrease price by 80%. Therefore I have asked for example of some another weapon system where price depreciation of 80% was achieved due to higher orders.

I don't understand why is no one able to provide me just one name of such a weapon instead of writing long posts containing theoretical BS.

 

[Defcon 1]

The economy of scale reduces cost of production for the manufacturer. It is not necessary that the manufacturer passes on the benefit of cost reduction to the end user. Any cost reduction needs to be looked at from the view of manufacturing cost and not sales prices.

The foreign manufacturer can very well bulk-manufacture at a low cost and sell it at a high profit margin to foreign buyers, like an iPhone. What @Advaidhya Tiwari is saying is correct. The US bloats its currency so it appears like American and foreign users are getting the weapon at the same price, but the American Army is not affected by the bloating since the currency is printed inhouse. This bloating is entirely subsidized by other countries whose currency is getting devalued to shoulder the burden of the forex manipulation. In layman terms, the foreign buyers are paying not just for the weapons they buy, but also for the weapons Americans buy. All their have to do is print more $ and our forex reserves are depleted every time we import more. Forex depletion affects other things like food security and energy security. These are the things governments have to balance while making purchase decisions, that's why these decisions are always political.

When everything is inhouse, and manufactured in bulk, it becomes very very cheap for the manufacturer (he can still keep it costly for the buyer, like Israel and USA does to us). For inhouse bulk production, one gets to shave off the profit margins applied at every stage of the weapon, from raw material to final product. A simple AK47's price fluctuates between 3k rupees and 50k rupees based on which vendor you buy it from. The quality difference is marginal, but the price difference is exponential. The price difference is purely a margin play. The more they manufacture, the cheaper it is for them. Consequently, ex-Soviet countries where all the manufacturing plants were originally established in a large scale, were able to mass manufacture AK variants and offer better deals for the same AK compared to the parent Russian org which invented it.

If Indian artillery is not up to the mark, forget DRDO, the Army can handpick an existing foreign artillery system and let Indian companies mass manufacture it. If the end user wants money, let them ask the govt. to do a direct bribe transfer to the bank accounts of Army officials, instead of misleading the nation and then pretending to be offended when civilians point out the anomalies. What is the case being made out here? that the tax payer is an idiot, OFB is stupid, DRDO is a thief, the elected govt. is retarded, the cabinet committee on security is dumb, PM is dumb, NSA is also dumb, but only the trigger puller has amassed all wisdom? This will lead to an Avinash Chander type episode. Even he thought he was infallible. Kept stalling the ASAT project, finally Modi picked him by the collar and threw him outside.

Please tell me where did I deny that economies of scale reduces price. My only question is on the specific claim was made that is ordering 2000 atags will reduce their price by 80%. Please prove it instead of writing such long posts without much substance.

 

[garg_bharat]

Forget ATAGS... I'm talking about ATHOS & Dhanush, with which the weight bullshit doesn't stand.

Again:
The 38km ranged 155×45 Dhanush is lighter at 12t, nearly matching (& in near future, outclassing) the phoren 155×52 ATHOS weighing 14t has range of 41km.

Clearly weight of something like 155×52 ATAGS with 48km max range can't be brought down below 16t, compared to ATHOS it is larger magazined too... & the army knows it very well. That's the very reason they're asking for it!

Yes I agree with your point on weight. However it may not be a limiting factor at the moment.
As I said the requisite number of pieces need to be manufactured for the trials.
May be army will accept ATAGS as it is. Weight is only one parameter out of many.

 

[Defcon 1]

I hope you understand that if people rebel, government will be forced to do teh bidding.


First,the price of a TV was Rs10000 in 1995. But the cost now is Rs 8000. This is despite the value of Rupee being depreciated 3 times. So, the cost of TV has become 15-20% of what it was. Cost of cars and scooters have also come down drastically

Similarly, the cost of making every weapon can come down too. But since weapons have to be exported by most producers, reducing the cost is artificially inflated to avoid selling large quantities to others and making others stronger than the seller.

If you can't understand how the weapons sale is restricted, it is your fault.

Omg this is so much bullshit. Tv price came down during 25 years so atags price will come down too? Are you kidding? What is the relationship between atags and tv?

Likewise i can claim that petrol was 30 rs/litre before. Now it is 70. So atags price will increase. This is despite higher consumption of petrol now.

 

[Advaidhya Tiwari]

Omg this is so much bullshit. Tv price came down during 25 years so atags price will come down too? Are you kidding? What is the relationship between atags and tv?

Likewise i can claim that petrol was 30 rs/litre before. Now it is 70. So atags price will increase. This is despite higher consumption of petrol now.

Do you have mental probem to relate price of a natural resource to price of manufactured goods?

 

[Defcon 1]

Do you have mental probem to relate price of a natural resource to price of manufactured goods?

Do you have a mental problem to relate price of a consumer good with the price of a weapon. Please just give me one example where High orders of a weapon have led to cost decrease by 80%. For someone who made the claim so confidently, you are sure having a hard time proving it.

 

[Advaidhya Tiwari]

Do you have a mental problem to relate price of a consumer good with the price of a weapon. Please just give me one example where High orders of a weapon have led to cost decrease by 80%. For someone who made the claim so confidently, you are sure having a hard time proving it.

Moron, weapons keep upgrading over time. Firstly, show me mass ordering of weapons without upgrade post 1990. then we can talk of this. Once cold war ended, mass production of weapons also ended.

What is wrong with you? Calling petrol as consumer goods is retarded. It is a natural resource based raw matrial. There is no manufacturing here. Refining is just distillation and does not involve any new manipulation. How can it be compared to manufactured goods?

How is weapon any different from any manufactured goods? Explain first

 

[garg_bharat]

Guys defence products are not like motorcycles or even trucks. Only a few defence products are mass produced. Most defence products require labour intensive processes.

If it was so easy, every country would have been a superpower.

Our defence industries are still developing and we are not in a stage where massive quantities of major defence products can be manufactured.

For whatever reasons, the capacity of Indian defence industry has been capped, largely by Congress governments. There has been a steady increase in BJP era. But please note it will take several more years before we see serious increase in quantity.

 

[Advaidhya Tiwari]

Guys defence products are not like motorcycles or even trucks. Only a few defence products are mass produced. Most defence products require labour intensive processes.

WHy is this the case? Because there is no war. When war is anticipated, will it still be manufcatured in small quantity?

If it was so easy, every country would have been a superpower.

It is extremely easy to manufacture if you have the technology. Getting the technology is the hard part. Once technology is there, manufacturing is 1 lakh times easy

For whatever reasons, the capacity of Indian defence industry has been capped, largely by Congress governments. There has been a steady increase in BJP era. But please note it will take several more years before we see serious increase in quantity.

Stop this mental talks. Manufacturing is not a difficult thing but "R&D" is. If there is already technology, then mass manufacturing is a piece of cake. Why talk nonsense? If you don't know, just shut up or simply ask questions

 

[Defcon 1]

Moron, weapons keep upgrading over time. Firstly, show me mass ordering of weapons without upgrade post 1990. then we can talk of this. Once cold war ended, mass production of weapons also ended.

What is wrong with you? Calling petrol as consumer goods is retarded. It is a natural resource based raw matrial. There is no manufacturing here. Refining is just distillation and does not involve any new manipulation. How can it be compared to manufactured goods?

How is weapon any different from any manufactured goods? Explain first

You have comprehension issues. When I said consumer good, I was referring to tv and not petrol.

As for the first part of your post, I am not denying that weapons get upgraded. I am simply asking you to prove that their price would decrease by 80% due to larger orders.

The only moron here is you who foolishly said that ordering 2000 atags will reduce their price by 80% and now when called on his lie, is desperately trying to change the topic to tv.

 

[Advaidhya Tiwari]

Kis ko Chahiye 60 km ? kyon chahiye 60 km.

What is of tactical / operational significance located at 60 km inside enemy territory? How would one acquire that target? How would one correct that fire? How would damage assessment be done at 60 km? Balakot was barely 30 km from border.
Then what are those rocket artillery ment for ? Guns and rockets have different employment philosophies ? Guns require a precise and specific target.

Unless it is the Gunner himself who wants to fire 30 km inside enemy area while remaining very safe 30 km inside own border. having Rum with warm water while firing.!!
Funny it may appear.

First explain what is the advantage of Athos over Dhanush. Don't talk about 45 vs 52 caliber. Is there any quality issue which hinders getting results? Merely because the shell is 45mm does not mean that it is useless and has to be replaced. As long as objectives can be obtained, it is good enough

 

[Advaidhya Tiwari]

As for the first part of your post, I am not denying that weapons get upgraded. I am simply asking you to prove that their price would decrease by 80% due to larger orders.

Show me one instance of mass manufacturing post 1990 without "upgrades" and I will show how price reduced. First show me the case where something was mass manufactured so that I can show you. Else, I can only show those good which has been mass manufactured to prove the point via analogy. Asking me to show proof of something that is yet to happen is ridiculous. Wherever we make prediction, we predict on the basis of similar data available, not exact data. Here, manufacturing of scooters, mixers, cars etc are available and hence I will use them to prove my point.

Consumer goods are also manufactured goods an hence there is no reason why I can't use it as analogy to weapons mass manufactured. If you want to prove that mass manufacturing does not reduce cost, then you give evidence to show it instead of calling my words as bullshit.

 

[Defcon 1]

Show me one instance of mass manufacturing post 1990 without "upgrades" and I will show how price reduced. First show me the case where something was mass manufactured so that I can show you. Else, I can only show those good which has been mass manufactured to prove the point via analogy.

Consumer goods are also manufactured goods an hence there is no reason why I can't use it as analogy to weapons mass manufactured.

Dude, i am agreeing that all mass manufacturing after 1990 involved upgrades. Now please tell me the name of one weapon system whose price decreased by 80% due to high amount of orders.

As for a mass manufactured weapon system, please take f16 as an example if you want