In an all too familiar demarche,
US negotiators are already in talks with the Haqqani network, whom they had declared a terrorist org. last year, itself. Looks like they had a change of heart. This shows US (for all the right reasons) cares two hoots about engaging with terrorist organization, when it comes to saving their as**s, notwithstanding its stated policy of non-negotiation with terrorists.
Does not bode well for India. Expect India to be restricted to NA dominated areas (North & NW regions). Whatever limited presence India has in mainland areas, would be rolled back or blown up & we cannot do a thing about it. The reality of geographical limitation (not having a direct land border with Af-stan) would now be dawning upon our External Affairs Ministry, more than ever & their helplessness in this matter is already too evident.
Even puny Qatar is going to have more say than India in days to came, when it comes to the calling the shots in Af-stan (for Qatar is Taliban's bridge to civilized world).
As always, India is nowhere in the picture of these negotiations between different parties on power-sharing agreement in the aftermath of US withdrawal. Pak (read, Gen. Ashfaque Kayani) is running the show, all the way. The Paki dream of achieving strategic depth in Af-stan is not a distant dream, anymore. Instead, it is well within reach. The last surviving superpower has already been humbled. History repeated itself.
Experts who had been day-dreaming that Indian soft-power could make India a player worth reckoning in Af-stan, would now wake-up from from their slumber, when they realize that India counts little in the future of Af-stan. There is simply for India no way to overcome the geographical reality.
US token presence in Af-stan & ANA, would not be able to withstand Taliban factions long enough & Kabul would eventually fall. Expect a replay of 1996, with Haqqani & Hekmatyar (as usual) factions taking the lead. But it be a much slower campaign than 1996 because drone strikes would not allow the Taliban militia to re-group often, a pre-requsitive for sustained offensives, when aim is to capture Kabul.
Lesson is: There is no substitute for Hard-Power. Winning hearts-n-minds is just an icing on cake.
Waiting for the real action to unfold.
@Singh @Kunal Biswas @pmaitra @sayareakd @Ray Sir Could you please share your perspectives on the developments underway ?
