Decline of Empires

sgarg

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@sgarg, the US collects money from all over the world, by virtue of the Dollar, together with, printing more of it out of thin air, and distributing it to those it chooses to. Anyone who owns a Dollar bill, gives money to the US. In polite words, the US exports its inflation. In rough words, the US counterfeits its own money. Counterfeit money printing is the founding principle of Fractional Reserve Banking.
I understand your point. I have discussed this with knowledgeable people. I worked close to Wall Street for three years.

Yes USA can print money and gets stuff for FREE when foreigners accept US dollar against merchandise or services. But this paper pyramid has limits.
 
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sgarg

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@pmaitra, the system works on expansion of money. Every economist knows that money chases goods. The capacity to produce goods is not unlimited. Ultimately there comes a time when more goods cannot be produced even if more money is created in the system.

This is the reason American system is HEAVILY BASED ON FREE TRADE. All the dollar printing will go for a toss if free trade is stopped. (requiring very big Navy to ensure free trade)

The model also requires universal acceptance of dollar thereby requiring a big Enforcer in US military.

There is a lot of complexity in the economic model that is not apparent easily.
 
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pmaitra

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There is no single reason why the Roman Empire fell. Various reasons contributed to its fall. I will summarize some of the main reasons:

Political Instability

Rome was a Republic, but not forever. There was a time when different Roman generals would fight each other, and of course, kill each other, just to get power. This was essentially a Civil War. This weakened the Roman Empire from within.

Currency Manipulation

The Roman currency, a coin, was initially based on silver, but over a period of time, the silver was adulterated, until very little real silver was left in each coin. This led to a gradual devaluation of the currency.

The adulteration of the Roman currency happened as a result of shortage of silver. The shortage of silver happened due to unbridled consumerism (people thought silk was more valuable than silver). Unbridled consumerism happened due to a prolonged period of extreme wealth and prosperity, that people lost sight of what is of real value and what is useless but creates the illusion of value.

Barbarian Invasion

The Barbarians (mainly Germans) to the north of the Roman Empire came under intense pressure from the Asian tribes (Huns, Mongols, et al.), and they, in turn, either entered into Rome, either as invading forces, or as migrants. Some got seemingly assimilated, but they were only loyal to their own kind.


[HR][/HR]


@Razor, and others who are interested.
 
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sgarg

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@pmaitra: if you listen to sparring between Democrats and Republicans in USA, you may very well remember fights of Roman generals.
USA is printing money as fast as any Roman mint could have.

The only thing remaining was barbarian invasion that has started with ISIS and Russia. (Physical proximity is no longer an issue in today's virtual world).

So the circle is complete, I would say.

India always suffers in such clash of civilizations. So get ready for trouble in India as well.
 
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pmaitra

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@pmaitra: if you listen to sparring between Democrats and Republicans in USA, you may very well remember fights of Roman generals.
USA is printing money as fast as any Roman mint could have.

The only thing remaining was barbarian invasion that has started with ISIS and Russia. (Physical proximity is no longer an issue in today's virtual world).

So the circle is complete, I would say.

India always suffers in such clash of civilizations. So get ready for trouble in India as well.
India will be fine as long as it continues to hoard grain and as long as people are capable of riding the bicycle to work (figuratively).

The basic idea is sustainability of economy and economic growth.

Coming to sparring of the Republican and Democrats, I have a slightly different view.

If you see, the Wall Street Bankers thrive on usury, i.e. interest, and interest is nothing but money created out of thin air. It is not real wealth. As time goes by, the market will reach a saturation point (too many dollars, but not enough resources, assets, etc..). To prevent saturation, the bankers need control over resources, and more resources (like Russian resources that these bankers want to control). If the access to resources ceases, the bankers will start fighting with each other, and that will be the equivalent of the Roman generals fighting.

The Republicans and Democrats represent the US Government, but the government does not print money. Money is printed by a private bank, called the Federal Reserve, which is financed by bankers. These bankers print money after the US Government hands them over its Treasury Bonds. It is these bankers who dictate the policies of the government, regardless of who the President is, or what party he belongs to.
 
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Shaitan

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@pmaitra: if you listen to sparring between Democrats and Republicans in USA, you may very well remember fights of Roman generals.
USA is printing money as fast as any Roman mint could have.

The only thing remaining was barbarian invasion that has started with ISIS and Russia. (Physical proximity is no longer an issue in today's virtual world).

So the circle is complete, I would say.

India always suffers in such clash of civilizations. So get ready for trouble in India as well.
You got to be kidding.. US will be around much longer.
 
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Virendra

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The most important is tax collection. The empire runs by collecting taxes. Here USA does the opposite. USA gives guarantee for Pakistan's security, and then gives money to Pakistan for maintaining its military. In a true empire, it should have been the opposite - that Pakistan should pay for American security guarantee.
Aren't they doing so, by being a hired gun for Americans? A different mode of payment may be.
I would agree though, that their utility has gone down, compared to the days of Russian interference in Afghanistan.

I believe that Empires fall when their Statecraft and Military Technology (that built them in the first place), is proven obsolete by a newer and better player.
Ultimately it is one idea check mating the other. The moment an Empire stops revising itself to the changing environment, the exposure to danger is opened.
 

Virendra

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Few years back I used to think that the Islamic disturbances would engulf and destroy the West.
Today I stand corrected on that simplistic view, because the West company is trying its best to use the same disturbance in its own favor.
----------------

There is no single reason why the Roman Empire fell. Various reasons contributed to its fall. I will summarize some of the main reasons:
....
....
Barbarian Invasion
The Barbarians (mainly Germans) to the north of the Roman Empire came under intense pressure from the Asian tribes (Huns, Mongols, et al.), and they, in turn, either entered into Rome, either as invading forces, or as migrants. Some got seemingly assimilated, but they were only loyal to their own kind.
One thing about physical factors like military invasions -
Though very overwhelming and arbitrary at first sight; they are mostly consequences of other shortcomings. They are the final blows that a weak, obsolete power gets.
Far lower in the list of events, they are almost never the root cause of an Empire's fall.
Most of the first chunks in the armour are scocio-political in nature. It begins with the intellectual and statecraft issues that eat out the coherence of the State's policy foresight and its responses. That sets the ball rolling and in due time there are multiple mistakes and oversights that follow.

Another understudied factor that I'd like to add is - Geographic/Climatic change.
For example - Early to late medieval Central Asian invasions into mainland India (including Babur's) have concided with wet spells in the former.
Will provide more details on that once I get back home.

Regards,
Virendra
 

pmaitra

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Few years back I used to think that the Islamic disturbances would engulf and destroy the West.
Today I stand corrected on that simplistic view, because the West company is trying its best to use the same disturbance in its own favor.
----------------


One thing about physical factors like military invasions -
Though very overwhelming and arbitrary at first sight; they are mostly consequences of other shortcomings. They are the final blows that a weak, obsolete power gets. Far lower in the list of events, they are almost never the root cause of an Empire's fall.
Most of the first chunks in the armour are scocio-political in nature. It begins with the intellectual and statecraft issues that eat out the coherence of the State's policy foresight and its responses. That sets the ball rolling and in due time there are multiple mistakes and oversights that follow.

Regards,
Virendra
You are correct.

The final blow is usually the last straw that breaks the camel's back. It is effective only because of existing inherent weaknesses.
 

jouni

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This thread is nonsense. For the past 70 years Europe has been a sleeping giant. Just like US was a sleeping giant before Pearl Harbor. Ukraine crisis may well be for Europe, what Pear Harbor was for the US. You ain´t seen nothing yet.
 

sgarg

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@pmaitra, the dollar would have gone in hyperinflation by now if not for the love foreigners have for dollar. Excess US dollars are being absorbed by Asian countries. Even excess Euros are being absorbed by Asian countries but not as much as the dollar.

The moneyed remain with USA, at least for now.

And this brings the scenario that I outlined. Reverses on the battlefield can cause a massive exodus out of dollar overnight. If US military might is unchallenged, dollar stays strong.

My feeling is that China will stay put for some more time. China is biding its time but not yet ready. The key is middle-east.

Ukraine will be settled in Russia's favour but sanctions on Russia will remain. West has already lost in Ukraine. A "novoRussia" is already created. Putin has won a military victory which is recognized by the West privately. There will be no acknowledgement in public though.

Russia's achievement may embolden China to try something as well, but as I said, China always learns from other's experience. China will wait until the situation become clearer.
 
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prohumanity

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Why everyone is only talking about materialism and economy? US society is in big shambles...deteriorating by the day...Sons are killing their mothers..mentally ill people and blacks are being shot by cops...drug addicts are rampant...families are disintegrating...if a person in family falls sick, the famility gets bankrupt. ..there is fear and insecurity and its all about "survival of the strongest" The US society is degenerating with more and more selfishness and pathological greed. So, what will you do with more money ..if your next generation is crazy and without any values and principles? Just money can not make a nation great ? Yes, Us can keep going materially for some more by destroying economies of other nations but the day of reckoning will be there. In my opinion, a great society/nation is one where people are secure, can trust their govt. and are happy...US does not fit this criteria.
Mental Stress ,violence and insecurity are getting worse and worse.
 

no smoking

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This thread is nonsense. For the past 70 years Europe has been a sleeping giant. Just like US was a sleeping giant before Pearl Harbor. Ukraine crisis may well be for Europe, what Pear Harbor was for the US. You ain´t seen nothing yet.
You must be kidding me. This "sleeping giant" can't even protect itself without US.
What happened after Pearl Harbor? US declared a war and made it clear that they wouldn't stop until a total win.
What happened after Ukraine? this sleeping giant turned to US right away.
 

sgarg

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The events in Ukraine are driven by USA. Europe is merely coasting along.

The Ukraine issue is polarising public opinion in EU bloc and there is real risk of EU losing its coherence in short period of time.

The Euro is already showing that I have predicted on another forum. Euro's life is short. Euro is basically a German project. The principles behind Euro have already been abandoned. Second round of money printing of 1T Euro has been approved by Draghi. This kind of monetary expansion is against the very concept of Euro.

People are noticing that EU economy has not turned around despite 2T Euro money injection.
 

Tactical Frog

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Napoleonic empire at its peak ... meteoritic rise, meteoritic fall !

If an empire relies too much on the judgment of one and only one person, it is prone to meteoritic fall . Hitler - Napoleon very similar in this regard. The fall somehow derives from the decline in their judgement.
The more decisions you personnally take, the higer the probability for strategic mistake, blunder.
 

Bornubus

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empire of my Ancestors...

too bad we lost almost half of it......
Your ancestors ?

Don't disgrace noble Turko - Mongol blood my Ansari or Quraishi friend.
 

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