David Goldman Spengler: How civilizationas die. Islamic Civilization is Dying

ejazr

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@Galaxy

Did you see the Spengler video?

He conflates the Arab world with "Islam". And that is what I have been trying to explain here.

If you look at the TFRs of just the Arab countries and find out how many of them are less and how many are more than Israel in 2009, you will see what he means. Other than a handful, most Arab countries have smaller TFRs including Iran.
 

HeinzGud

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@ejazr

If you look at the percentage of Muslims living under democratic govt. and those without, you will end up with a vast majority living under democratic govt. which again refutes your point
again this is my statement..... when a Islamic country move towards democracy they loose their Islamic values therefore pure democracy cannot be a Islamic country!

BTW Muslims live in non-Islamic countries enjoy more freedom than their Islamic counterparts
 

Galaxy

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Offtopic but you need to probably clear up some misconceptions here. To understand the causes of militant Islamic groups in the past decades and their history, it is worthwhile to check out this thread.

http://defenceforumindia.com/religi...ico-religous-movements-islamists-neocons.html

And ofcourse, Spengler here is focusing on the Arab world, and not all Muslims. Arabs who comprise 19% of the world Muslim population. Countries like Indonesia, Malaysia, Turkey are doing quite well in all aspects.

And yes Arab world is facing major challenges. Particularly the non-GCC Arab countries. They have been under foreign rule since the 13th century when the Mongols (who followed Buddhist/Shamanists belief by the way) smashed the Arab empire and massacred its people. They did convert to Islam later - as conquerers and not conquered people - and continued ruling over Arab land which later got transferred to their Turkic cousins under the Ottoman empire. Around WWI these lands who fought alonside the Allies for independence ended up being betrayed and colonized by European countries. And finally when they actually got independence in the 50s and 60s, they ended up becoming main secular leftist dictatorships that crushed all opposition. So this has resulted in a serious crisis in the Arab world and the Arab spring is something that was just waiting to happen.

Here is Gerges, an ME expert at the LSE and a Christian lebanese by heritage talking about this much better than what I can explain
Hehehehe. Posting one fabricated & biased pov of a person to say things are improving or might do well. :lol:



Pak is also democratic country. :lol:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index

Either it's dictatorship or Islamic state or both in 90% cases.




 
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Galaxy

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@Galaxy

Did you see the Spengler video?
Did you saw the official T.F.R. difference between Muslims and Non-Muslims ?? Video is opinion and i am talking of facts.

He conflates the Arab world with "Islam". And that is what I have been trying to explain here.

If you look at the TFRs of just the Arab countries and find out how many of them are less and how many are more than Israel in 2009, you will see what he means. Other than a handful, most Arab countries have smaller TFRs including Iran.
Israel is irrelevant as population is merely 0.1% of world population. Indeed, Overall T.F.R. among Jews is less compare to Muslims of Israel. I know you always put fabricated & exceptional case until someone points out.

Total fertility rate (2010) - Israel.

TFR was 2.97 for Jews and 3.75 for Muslims in 2009. TFR is high among Jews for demographic purpose in order to protect themselves from 1 Billion Muslims from Middle-East and beyond. Nevertheless it's merely 0.1% population of the world.


In simple words - Muslims T.F.R. is around 30%-60% Higher than Non-Muslims in most of the countries & overall world population growth too and it's 100% fact. Rest are irrelevant. So, Yes ISLAM is rising like there is no tomorrow. :wave:
 
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Mr.Ryu

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As far as i can see islam is growing in numbers but falling in values and their true peaceful community as said in their texts.
 

ejazr

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@Galaxy

Although I may agree that Spengler has a biased view, I am only explaining that his thesis on TFR of Arab countries vs Israel is correct.

Why is it so difficult for you to accept this simple idea? Lets put the prejudices aside and try to understand what I am saying here.
I don't agree Muslims are "dying out". But I do agree that most Arab countries have a lower TFR than Israel. And the idea that there is some far between Muslims and Jews is only in the minds of fanatics, I hope you are not one of them. The issue is between countries or Israeli policies and infact many Jews and Muslims live amicably and have done so historically.

Here is a graphic that should explain this to you in simple terms and I hope you apologise for insinuating that I make fabricated examples. If you can't read and understand what I am saying, that is not my problem



Note how Israel TFR is right in the top 5-6 countries in the Middle East. THIS is the thesis Spengler is building on. And this is what I am pointing out as well. That TFR in Arab countries have fallen drastically and are now reaching levels close to 2.0 or even below like in Iran.

That is the only point I agree with Spengler and that is all I am saying here. The other stuff does bring out his bias as you pointed out and from his own biography, he does show that he writes not from a neutral perspective but as a religious jew.

But the facts about Arab TFR rates are correct and instead of rubbishing everything what he says, I can at least understand the TFR bit and accept it after I did my own research.
 

Virendra

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But why the comparison with Israel whose population is so less? How much is it going to matter in the larger picture?
Please correct me if I'm wrong.
You can take a region whose population is comparable in quantity and then overlay the birth rates upon each other.
I didn't see the author covering even half of the Muslim countries. He has only touched the cases of Iran, Turkey and Egypt.
Where I agree with him is the fact that wherever spread of education took place (specially among women) in Islamic countries; they were having lesser kids.
The perception of the people predicting Islamic sweep is built upon the pattern of migration they see and not to birth rates in Islamic countries. Mainly in Europe.
The waves of migration are not going to die for a couple of decades even after / if the birth rates indeed drop to considerably low levels.

Regards,
Virendra
 
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Galaxy

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@ ejazr

I already said, Israel is irrelevant here. But still you cleverly bought Israel to divert main topic which is about whole world and not about a small piece of land i.e. Israel with merely 0.1% population of the world. How smart way you defend, today only i came to know. ?? :lol:

Again comparing Iran with country like Israel ?? Do you even know basic difference between these two countries as per demographic ?? Iran has 98% Muslim population whereas Israel has only 75% Jew population. Iran is not facing any such demographic invasion like Israel. So, One can't compare between these 2 countries or any Middle-east country with Israel.

Now see T.F.R. of Israel between Muslim & Jews. TFR was 2.97 for Jews whereas 3.75 for Muslims (2010). Difference is still around 30%. Now, lately Jews started to have stable (+ve) T.R.F., because of Fear of demographic invasion by Muslims. If Jews will not have current T.F.R. (which is still 30% lower than Muslims of Israel), in few decades, Israel will become Muslim majority. For god sake, Non-Muslims also have some sense. People know, how demographic invasion works, who knows better than Indian. :wave:

And in any case it's, 0.1% population of the world which is irrelevant. They are just trying to protect themselves by minimum no. possible from Wahhabi-Hezbollah terrorism.

Now, What does it matter with Iran or KSA or Qatar ?? They are Muslim majority, Indeed Islamic state where recently a Lady was beheaded for acting in film and a person who converted into Christian was beheaded too. These Middle-east countries have absolute Muslim majority and no fear from any Non-Muslims demographic influence or invasion in those areas and anyway no. is not low, It's either moderate or high. Got the point ??

Now, See Muslims of other part.

Africa : growing like there is no tomorrow. Difference between Africa & Other part of the world T.F.R. is around 200%-300%. Competition with Christian. eh ? A picture is worth thousand words.



Now, Europe - Difference between T.F.R. of Muslims & Non-Muslims is amazing 50%.



India, Russia same story. Difference is around 40%. BD & Pak and other countries also have high T.F.R. for Muslims, so that Non-Muslims can disappear like they never existed. Kerala where Muslims literacy rate is 95% has 50% high T.F.R. to Hindus and even Christians. :hail:

Overall, Muslims population is rising very fast and yes, Islam is fastest growing religion of the world and it's fact. It's pre-planned attempt and it's not perception but reality. Non-Muslims are not fool.



It does not matter if T.F.R. for Muslims decreased in last few decades, what matter is current difference in Non-Muslim countries or where they have some futuristic Islam plan. As per, Guinness World Records 2003, Islam is fastest growing religion. Difference was always 50%. Check it out.



As blackwater said which i agree completely, Majority of Muslims specially where they need more number. to overthrow Non-Muslims are increasing the population due to guidance of Mosque, Mullah and Muslim brotherhood. :lol:
 
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ejazr

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@Galaxy

I didn't bring up Israel, Spengler in his video did. He was trying to justify how the US and Israel have higher TFRs than the Arab world. And on top of that he was conflating the Arab world with the "Islamic world". Which again as both you and I agree is wrong.

I don't agree with this thesis, just like you don't. Ofcourse, I don't believe in the conspiracy theory of Muslim brotherhood and Mullahs taking over the world just as I don't believe the Jews are following some protocols of the learned Elders of Zion to take over the world. IF you are going to be agitated about this, you have every right to do so. But thankfully, no one in the foreign policy establishment would take this conspiracy theories seriously. Otherwise, it would be disastrous for that country who does so.


I think atleast both of us agree that Spengler is wrong in assuming that "Islamic civilisation" is dying but have different thought process around it. You might think that there is some conspiracy to increase numbers with guidance for Mullahs and MB. And I agree with the PEW report you quoted which states that high TFRs and their drops are related more to literacy, particularly female literacy and female work participation rate. And as these increase, the TFRs for them will decrease as well.
And this has ALREADY been demonstrated in countries like Iran, the GCC countries including Saudi Arabia. Some of the most conservative countries in the world but rising female literacy (all GCC countries and Iran have over 90% female literacy) has resulted in a huge drop in TFR. North African countries which had a TFR of 6-7 just a generation ago are down to 2-3. So obvioulsy, the poorer African countries and places like AFghanistan, Pakistan would have higher TFRs. Not out of some Mullah inspired conspiracy but because - as the PEW report says lack literacy, and female work participation rates.

If you look at the 2010 TFR for all countries and highlight how many Muslim majority countries have TFR below the world average, you will see that a majority of them including large Muslim countries like Indonesia, Turkey, Iran all have TFRs below global average. Other countries like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar and north African countries have had some of the sharpest drops in TFRs. This is because their HDI, female literacy e.t.c have all improved considerably faster than the world average in the past 2-3 decades.
Infact, the TFRs of sub-saharan Africa with Christian and pagan/animist religious groups are more in number in the higher than World average TFR than Muslim countries over all.

Is the Muslim population increasing, yes it is. But the real actual difference that you should be looking at is growth rates along with TFRs as well as the global population ratio. Again from the same PEW global report you quoted.

The Future of the Global Muslim Population - Pew Research Center
The growth of the global Muslim population, however, should not obscure another important demographic trend: the rate of growth among Muslims has been slowing in recent decades and is likely to continue to decline over the next 20 years, as the graph below shows. From 1990 to 2000, the Muslim population grew at an average annual rate of 2.3%. The growth rate dipped to 2.1% from 2000 to 2010, and it is projected to drop to 1.7% from 2010 to 2020 and 1.4% from 2020 to 2030 (or 1.5% annually over the 20-year period from 2010 to 2030, as previously noted).

The declining growth rate is due primarily to falling fertility rates in many Muslim-majority countries, including such populous nations as Indonesia and Bangladesh. Fertility is dropping as more women in these countries obtain a secondary education, living standards rise and people move from rural areas to cities and towns. (See the Related Factors section in the full report for more details.)

The slowdown in Muslim population growth is most pronounced in the Asia-Pacific region, the Middle East-North Africa and Europe, and less sharp in sub-Saharan Africa. The only region where Muslim population growth is accelerating through 2020 is the Americas, largely because of immigration.


Lastly, I doubt anyone really goes to the ask for guidance on how many kids people will have. They base their decision just like everyone else on personal circumstances, social norms and at times superstitions or economic reasons. In the US, there are many Christian groups that oppose brith control for religious reasons and promote having lots of kids. US Presidential candidate Rick Santorum has seven kids and promotes no birth control. Similarly, there are jewish groups like the ultra-orthodox jews who also oppse birth control and promote large families. But we don't take this as a conspiracy Christians taking over the world because it would be foolish to do so.

Finally, I will end with what Afghan Mullas are doing regarding birth control. What it looks like is they haven't got the memo about the global conspiracy to take over the world by having more kids because they are advocating birth control in such a conservative country :)

Under WHO Intiative, Afghan Mullahs Promote Birth Control
Mullahs in Afghanistan are trying new strategies to prevent an ongoing health and economic crisis caused by high fertility and maternal mortality rates: They're passing out birth control pills and distributing condoms.

The tactics might come as a surprise, given that women living under the Taliban faced centuries of repression and intolerance, including bans on work, socializing and choice of husband -- often in the name of Islam.

But things are changing, and it's that same faith being cited as the motivation behind the bid to improve contraception use and reduce the number of births per family in the country. The average woman in Afghanistan rears six babies, despite a dearth of available medical care.

The progressive stance toward birth control was catalyzed by a World Health Organization project, done in conjunction with local Afghan health agencies. Researchers targeted 3,700 families in three communities. A total of 37 mullahs backed the project and even included safe-sex reminders during their Friday prayer sessions.

Other mullahs used quotations from the Koran that encouraged longer breaks between births, meant as time for breastfeeding and a woman's recuperation from the health struggles of pregnancy and childbirth. The quotations were also included on handouts distributed to women and men in the communities.

So far, the program has been remarkably successful. While an estimated 10 percent of women in Afghanistan use birth control, that number rose to 27 percent in the three targeted locales.

Health experts say contraception is starting to catch on in the country, which is also facing a maternal death rate that's exceeded only in Sierra Leone. Right now, 1,800 women die for every 100,000 live births. By comparison, the U.S rate is 15 per 100,000.

"The main take-home point is that for women who do not want to be pregnant now, it can be a double tragedy for her to die from a pregnancy she did not want -- especially when we could have helped her," lead study author Dr. Douglas Huber told The Associated Press. "The fastest, cheapest, easiest way to reduce maternal deaths in Afghanistan is with contraception."

Mullahs advised women that safe sex was 300 times safer than giving birth in Afghanistan and debunked widespread cultural myths, such as the belief that birth control pills cause permanent infertility. They also encouraged contraception among women at any age, from teens to older adults.

Although sex in the country was once a cultural taboo, the Afghan groups involved in the study now outrank the Vatican on empirical data regarding birth control. Last year, the Vatican's official newspaper published a story that linked birth control pills to unwanted abortions and cancer.

"If it is to regulate fertility, these are not the products required," the article said. "The natural means of regulating fertility, Natural Family Planning, are equally effective and also respect the person."

Despite preconceived notions about Islamic tenets, and Afghanistan's spotty track record when it comes to women's rights, Islam doesn't traditionally oppose birth control, vasectomies or abortions. The WHO report notes that mullahs expressed concerns over the health and safety of women.

The WHO now plans to implement the initiative nationwide. If it succeeds, Afghanistan will represent an Islamic stance that is more unequivocal about contraception than many mainstream American faiths. Among Jewish and Protestant groups, lines are increasingly delineated between sects that oppose contraception and those that prefer to promote safe sex over abstinence.
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pmaitra

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Some former Soviet republics and Turkey are in blue. What does blue mean? These countries that I mentioned are neither dictatorships, nor Islamic states. Yes, they are Muslim majority states. They are also democratic republics where they have elections. Some in the West may not like to acknowledge the democracies in the former Soviet republics, but then who are those in the West to dole out certificates of authenticity of democracy?

This map does not appear to be bonafide.
 

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