David Goldman Spengler: How civilizationas die. Islamic Civilization is Dying

[Nagraj]

As for quote on buddhism i dunnu how much true that quote really is . unforunatly when it comes to "einstein's ideas on religion" finding propaganda free material is really tough.

 

[Singh]

OFF Topic:-
Sry for posting this here. but i am unable to access any other part of dfi.
when ever i click on forum button i am being redirected to http://defenceforumindia.com/cgi-sys/defaultwebpage.cgi .
and access is denied .
and i am facinfg this for past few days . could not even open dfi and thought that dfi was down . i have tried everything from clearing cache to changing browsers not of any avail.

change your dns to google.
Google Public DNS

 

[ejazr]

I don't agree with many of what is said here including the characterization of "Islamic civilization". He seems to mixup Arabs with Islamic which is a common mistake. But Arabs make up only 19% of the global Muslim population. So you may have to say, Arab muslim or Turkish Muslim, or European muslim or Indian Muslim e.t.c. to really discuss this properly.

However, he does have one correct statistic right which forms the basis of much of his thesis. The birth rates of Arab countries and muslim countries like Iran are falling and infact most of them now have lower TFRs than Israel (around 3.0). In other words, Israel does have a higher TFR than more than half of the Arab countries. A quick check of TFRs for Arab countries and Israel will show this to be true. There are possibly only 3 or 4 countries who have higher TFR than Israel

Hopefully, this will again prove that scaremongering about the coming Eurabia is just now true as TFRs fall and immigrant populations reach TFR rates of the resident countries.

The other point is about development. He does not really quantify how he measures it. Is it GDP, GDP per capita, HDI, military spending e.t.c.? In all these indicators there is wide variation but countries like Turkey, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia and the GCC states all have done well on various aspects. With the Arab spring and democratic govt. taking root, this should give a spurt again on education and development.

Keeping in mind that the vast majority of present day Muslim majority countries gained independence only in the 50s or 60s, we can see that the HDI standings of many have improved rapidly. So with democratic govt.s (and less wars being imposed in the regions) the HDI standings are likely to improve further.

 

[HeinzGud]

^^^^^^^^^^^ Islam and democratic governments! :shocked: dude those two words go parallel to each other.... they can't integrate...

as you can see almost all the pure islamic countries don't have any democracy like Saudi, Iran and Afghanistan... and the moderate Islamic countries like Malaysia, Turkey Indonesia are not good Islamic states...

 

[niharjhatn]

Buddhism is surely gonna die one day.. cuz it's a religion... but Buddha's philosophy would remain.. I think that's what Einstein wanted to say!

But that's your fault isn't it?

Buddhism was never meant to be a bloody religion. Buddha wanted to cut through all the crap that had entangled Hinduism, and focus on the core.

Now the same entanglement has engulfed his own thinking.

 

[Virendra]

Islam is growing and not dying.
The name is Goldman.
That name sounds Jewish!

He certainly shows a change in tone while talking about Jews and Israel.

no sir it's most certainly not, Islam can't fight with the modern science, it will mostly die within this century and Christianity will follow suite... with in couple of centuries!

You may be right but there is hardly a way to tell properly. Some say the avalanche of Islam is coming, while others dub it as the last surge before it dies - like a candle's flutter before going off.

 

[HeinzGud]

like a candle's flutter before going off.

exactly virendrea I think that what is happening now....... we see a large exponential growth in Islam in non-Islamic nations specially like in Europe but larger it grows it's weakness lay bare... and also we have to consider the larger apostasy of Islamic intellectuals......

 

[jatkshatriya]

Someone up there took the name of Zakir Naik....Man he is such a dumbass that he really amuses me ...though I must admit he has got great memory and knows how to mend words but his words fail on account of logical scrutiny......I will give an example of his lame logic..I was watching an interview in which the interviewr asked Naik " Sir many non muslims complaint that all non muslim couontries are secular, muslims are free to build mosques in America, europe, India etc etc but Many Muslim countries are strictly Islamic ,say for eg Iran, Afghanistan etc why arent they allowed to build churches , temples, Gurudwaras, Senagogues etc etc"....Guess the logical reply of Zakir naik (the idiot who happen to be living and feeding in a secular country) ...Zakir naik said " My friend, if a teacher says 2+2 is 5 will you allow such a teacher to teach your children, no you wont allow it caz you know 2+2 is 4,....then how can we allow such teacxhers to teach in OUR COUNTRIES ...." ...first of all I didnt get his logic when he assumed only he in the entire world is right and secondly he said we wont allow these teachers in OUR Countries as if his countries are Islamic countries like Iran , Afghanistan etc and India is not his country .....

 

[agentperry]

i think renaissance is awaited.. nothing more or less.

 

[ejazr]

^^^^^^^^^^^ Islam and democratic governments! :shocked: dude those two words go parallel to each other.... they can't integrate...

as you can see almost all the pure islamic countries don't have any democracy like Saudi, Iran and Afghanistan... and the moderate Islamic countries like Malaysia, Turkey Indonesia are not good Islamic states...

Not sure where you got that from, but almost all Muslim majority govt.s are moving towards democracy. And the concept of consultation of shura is a very fundamental concept in Islam and the Quran.

That is why you are seeing countries like Kuwait and other GCC countries moving towards elected bodies. Even in Saudi Arabia, they have been forced to concede right to vote for women in local body elections as well as stand as candidates. Its only a matter of time where this results in more reforms. If democracy was "unIslamic" why are all muslim majority countries moving towards it? Including Saudi Arabia?

Saudi Arabia gives women right to vote | World news | guardian.co.uk

And if you did read on the Iranian and Afghan political systems, you would have realised that these are democracies as well. Both countries elect their representatives. Iran infact had the first democratically elected govt. in the middle east until it was overthrown by a CIA backed coup in 1953.

 

[HeinzGud]

@ ejazr

you didn't get what I said.... "Islam and Democracy won't go together"

If democracy was "unIslamic" why are all muslim majority countries moving towards it?

Islamic countries can move towards democracy but when they do they loose their Islamic way of life....

 

[Ray]

Islamic countries are indeed moving towards democracy.

But they are throwing up fundamentalist political parties.

We have to observe the future as to how it pans out.

 

[Virendra]

Not sure where you got that from, but almost all Muslim majority govt.s are moving towards democracy. And the concept of consultation of shura is a very fundamental concept in Islam and the Quran.

Hail Arab Spring !!
Oh but wait, does Arab spring hail democracy?
Contrary to dictatorship and their likes, democracy isn't established overnight. We'll have to wait for that.

Regards,
Virendra

 

[shuvo@y2k10]

unless islamic society realize today's ground realities they will slowly but surely die.these reality is mainly that there are religion other than islam and peaceful coexistence is the way forward rather than forcing their religion on others pursued by them throughout centuries by invasion and massacre and recently by means of jihad

 

[KS]

I would any day take a secular nationalist but dictatorial Assad over a supposedly democratic but radicalized Muslim Brotherhood.

 

[ejazr]

@ ejazr

you didn't get what I said.... "Islam and Democracy won't go together"



Islamic countries can move towards democracy but when they do they loose their Islamic way of life....

That is probably your understanding of it, but not the Muslims in general. Islamic scholars in Egypt, Turkey, India e.t.c. all have supported democracy(or more accurately consultation with the public) as being compatible with Islam. There are different forms it can take and ofcourse we will have to wait and see how the Arab spring pans out. I don't expect all of them to turn into Turkey, but if they become Indonesia where they have regular elections, that would be a very positive change in itself. Besides, Arabs form only 19% of the Muslim world, a minority. 30% of Muslims live under non-muslim govts. If you look at the percentage of Muslims living under democratic govt. and those without, you will end up with a vast majority living under democratic govt. which again refutes your point


In any case, the main topic was the thesis that lower TFRs would result in the death of the "Islamic civilization". And although the end result postulated seems more like a wish of the author, he has one fact correct which is that most "Arab" countries have lower TFRs than Israel.

Now that in itself should put to rest the crazy theories of Eurabia and Muslims taking over Europe and remove the misconception that Muslims are trying to "outbreed" others.

Although I would suspect that in Israel, its not the secular/liberal jews that are having more children but the ultra-orthodox jews who do not server the Israeli army and on top of that get paid for Torah studies and do not productive economic work. This may be a concern if such jews start becoming a bigger and bigger chunk of Israeli society.

 

[Galaxy]

Islam is certainly not declining. Indeed, It's fastest growing religion in the world and main reason is high Total Fertility Rate. Muslims in Africa are growing almost at double pace than any other part of the world. Then in Europe, West, T.F.R. among Muslims are close to 50% Higher than Christians & Non-Muslims. Pakistan no. is growing like Pigs. in India, Bangladesh, Muslims T.F.R. is almost 30%-60% higher than Non-Muslims. Their T.F.R. might have decreased in last few decades, But what matter most is current difference with other religion which is huge. Islam and Mullahs play decisive role to promote high T.F.R. so that Islam can continue to rise. There are few countries where T.F.R. among Muslims are moderate/normal but those countries have 95%+ Muslims in most cases. So, One can understand why T.F.R. is too high when Muslims are minority. Not too difficult to understand.

Overall, T.F.R. among Muslims are almost 30%-50% higher than Non-Muslims majority countries. Even more high growth (50%) when they are in minority.

Total fertility rate (children born/woman) Ranking--> Total fertility rate - Country Comparison

A world map showing countries by fertility rate, 2005-2010.

A world map showing countries by fertility rate, 2005-2010.
7-8 Children
6-7 Children
5-6 Children
4-5 Children
3-4 Children
2-3 Children
1-2 Children
0-1 Children



Democracy in Muslim country is cheap Joke.

Democracy index map for 2011

and Things are not changing......Speed is so pathetic that by end of 21st century when oil would become rarest of commodity, World would be divided in 2 parts. 1st Class & 2nd Class..... It's inevitable.

 

[Vyom]

Islam may not be repulsive to democracy as times are changing and people are becoming aware of their rights, but Islam does believes in Sharia, which the Islamic nations do hope to have one day in totality. It led to civil war in Sudan.

 

[Galaxy]

Israel population is only 7.5 Million. Merely 0.5% compare with Muslims. It's irrelevant to talk about that.

Muslims in Europe have 50% and some case even more than that T.F.R. compare with Christians or even Non-Muslims.

http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/070920_muslimintegration.pdf

Even in India, Russia and other countries where Muslims are minority - Their T.F.R. is 30%-60% more than Non-Muslims. Moderate mostly when they are absolute majority. More No. and more share is mantra for Islam.

 

[ejazr]

unless islamic society realize today's ground realities they will slowly but surely die.these reality is mainly that there are religion other than islam and peaceful coexistence is the way forward rather than forcing their religion on others pursued by them throughout centuries by invasion and massacre and recently by means of jihad

Offtopic but you need to probably clear up some misconceptions here. To understand the causes of militant Islamic groups in the past decades and their history, it is worthwhile to check out this thread.

http://defenceforumindia.com/religi...ico-religous-movements-islamists-neocons.html

And ofcourse, Spengler here is focusing on the Arab world, and not all Muslims. Arabs who comprise 19% of the world Muslim population. Countries like Indonesia, Malaysia, Turkey are doing quite well in all aspects.

And yes Arab world is facing major challenges. Particularly the non-GCC Arab countries. They have been under foreign rule since the 13th century when the Mongols (who followed Buddhist/Shamanists belief by the way) smashed the Arab empire and massacred its people. They did convert to Islam later - as conquerers and not conquered people - and continued ruling over Arab land which later got transferred to their Turkic cousins under the Ottoman empire. Around WWI these lands who fought alonside the Allies for independence ended up being betrayed and colonized by European countries. And finally when they actually got independence in the 50s and 60s, they ended up becoming main secular leftist dictatorships that crushed all opposition. So this has resulted in a serious crisis in the Arab world and the Arab spring is something that was just waiting to happen.

Here is Gerges, an ME expert at the LSE and a Christian lebanese by heritage talking about this much better than what I can explain