Comparative study of India, China and Pakistan

Discussion in 'Defence & Strategic Issues' started by pyromaniac, Feb 25, 2009.

  1. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    If gwadar is destroyed early in an conflict the chinese ships will be sitting ducks,far from home no supplies and falling prey to cruise misiile and air strikes,
    chinese have lost wars close to home few decades back they lost a war to much smaller vietnam their kung fu skills won't be much help either.
     
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  2. Atul

    Atul Founding Member

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    Dear Lethal,

    China is developing Gwadar with a specific target in mind, firstly it will help them position strategically monitoring the Arabian Sea & the Gulf of Oman. They are Strategically close to Chabahar Port ( IRAN ) ( remember in case of an INDIA PAK war ) the Chinese presence in Gadwar can hamper or deter the Iranains to stay neutral ( no close border war games, to act as an diversion ).

    Even if by any chance IRAN plans to stay neutral, our supply lines will be in trouble with Chinese presence in this area.

    http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/middle_east_and_asia/iran_rel_2001.jpg

    The Map shows how big a problem it can be for india. Remember China has Nuclear Subs.... ( no Question or Querries on how reliable they are.... remember they are Nuclear powered )

    A strategic decision here would be either to help IRAN built a port (on similar grounds as Gwadar Port) or Get Close to Taiwan ( Probably we can supply them a few Brahmos missiles to keep the chinese busy )....
     
  3. Vinod2070

    Vinod2070 मध्यस्थ Stars and Ambassadors

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    As I posted the article in another thread, just posting a link here:

    http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/geopolitics_china

    A most interesting read! A quote from the article:

     
  4. visso

    visso New Member

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    yea, India again is near at china's throat. but it is always the assasin who take the fatal blow from the hostage. glad, the assasin didn't risk his life to do it.
     
  5. Tshering22

    Tshering22 Sikkimese Saber Senior Member

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    Which is why they have been recently showering so much love on Pakistan. You see, they want to ensure that they are not at the mercy of IOR all the time lest they might need to make military moves. This is best possible when Pakistan which connects Chinese via Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK), therefore becoming another "Silk Route" that the Chinese have been looking to transport their massive manufactured goods via land in case (which I am sure) they have to come to war with us. While we common citizens of India have realized that, our short-sighted and abhorrently corrupt government haven't done so. The second Sino-Indian war would begin as soon as the Railways and roadways through POK are constructed, including a few Naval adventures by PLAN (albeit surely unsuccessful ones since IN knows the region in and out).

    Strategically it would be prudent to station some numbers Dhruv gunships in the Siachen tri-intersection point since they are the only things capable of handling such merciless climate and high altitude punishments of nature and yet perform well. This is because the main objective would be to disrupt the flow of goods from one side to another so that not only commercial trade of CCP gets affected but also that PLA or PA doesn't get military logistics to open a second front via Pakistan. From the way I observed, Using Hambantota as a naval port by PLAN is not possible simply because no matter how welcoming Lankans might be, they don't want to turn their cities to ash piles by IAF in return as for them we are much closer than PLAN could ever make it in time.

    Hence in conclusion of my comment, I would say that the possible warfronts that we are likely to face are complete eastern sector (Himachal, Ladakh, Uttarakhand, Sikkim and Arunachal), 2 western sectors (J&K and maybe Punjab). And if I am allowed to let my imagination run wild, I would include a Jamaati-run Bangladesh as well not directly used by PLA(AF, AN) but through jihadists against India during the ensuing war chaos.
     
  6. anoop_mig25

    anoop_mig25 Senior Member Senior Member

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    well there was news that china presently are not interest in gwadar port. durning the last visit of pakistan president to chine pakistan offered control and management of gwadar port to china (citing mismanagement from an signaporean company). but shocking news was that china declined the offer.i would try to give link of the news other day
     
  7. Virendra

    Virendra Moderator Moderator

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    Even if we assume that in case of war (or near war) they start using supply lines via Pak, can't they be cut off in PoK?
    How good is the height leverage available to us?
    If disruption is the aim, best route is the one that doesn't require you to fight loud of the territorial borders and out in the open.

    Reasons for them to show hesitation could be:
    1. They want to downplay this matter of Gwadar's military/trade use.
    2. They perceive the present Pak situation volatile enough to burn their hands.
    3. They understand the inherent risks of that route and keep it as a last resort only.

    Regards,
    Virendra
     
    Last edited: Jul 24, 2011
  8. nirma1230

    nirma1230 New Member

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    thank you brother you scatch such a use full line between pak, ind, china, its very help full article for study, appreciated, keep it up
     
  9. no smoking

    no smoking Senior Member Senior Member

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    Before you guys step into self-congratulation, thre is couple of things to think about:
    1. The dominant force in india ocean is US navy intead of India navy. If you want to block chinese sea transportation, you will put a big impact on every boat sailing towards south east asia and east asia because China can hire other countries' boat to do the work or even import it from third country. Then you will face a big problem: US will intervene because it promise the free sailing to every country in asia not only China.
    2. Yes, chinese rail line would be vulnerable to india's attack. But in what scenario? In a full scale war? I don't think india has that stomach taking the risk of nuclear war. A casual conflict? I don't think it would cause serious problem to China if the link was cut for a couple of weeks.
     
  10. RAJPUT

    RAJPUT New Member

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    Even their(china's) Kung-Fu is copied from Indian martial arts. :)
     
  11. RAJPUT

    RAJPUT New Member

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    We are not congratulating our selves.It's just a fact that is hard to digest for any Chinese.From India,China or Pakistan,no country can afford a full scale war,as India & China is still developing and Pakistan is a f**k'd up country.So only way to do some damage to enemy country in this scenario is a "PROXY WAR", which is well understood by these three countries.

    Let's face the reality that US is a friendly country to India & China,but US don't want the Chinese dragon to raise.Except North Korea & Pak, almost every country in south asia don't want Chinese domination,so in a full scale war most countries of SouthEast asia will be neutral.
    It's clear that India has courage & technology to fight with China-Pak at a same time, unlike China who desperately want favor & supports from a handicapped country like Pak & other countries' technology to copy from.For any Intelligent country like India, the war is always the last option.Our reaction we'll be uglier than your action.
    @China-Pakistan: Stop day dreaming...
     
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  12. arya

    arya Senior Member Senior Member

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    we are not ready for china and china know that

    do we guys really think china will give time to us,

    cant we deal with other countries that in war condition they will provide there weapons some secret deals with the world powers
     
  13. RAJPUT

    RAJPUT New Member

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    You got the point.
    We should support & help other countries of south-east asia to grow and gain favor.Almost every country who shares LOC with China have issues with China.So we should take advantage of this situation but our Leaders are hopeless.
     
  14. no smoking

    no smoking Senior Member Senior Member

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    But all your indian countrymen are talking about a full scale war!


    No one want a big boy appearing in his own street. Just as the countries around india, they just bring China or US into the area to offset india's influence. Another thing you get wrong is no one is coming to help china in southeast asia and china is expecting no one. But when india tries to block
    china's sea supplying line, there is no way that india can avoid impacting other countries sea line. You have to check every ship sailing towards southeast asia. That will be a huge cost increase for them. Unless, india is going to pay this delay cost for everyone, you are ruining the freedom of sailing. And that is where US has to intervene because it is what US promised to Japan and south korea, etc.

    For EVERY country, the war is always the last option. It is not about courage or technology, it is about money and political calculation. The thing you never can admit is that india is always as ugly as China.
     
  15. LTE-TDD

    LTE-TDD Regular Member

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    Why both them, they live in illusion world. If all india people like them, we do not need worry.
     
  16. Hari Sud

    Hari Sud Senior Member Senior Member

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    The following paper appeared in a Pakistani newspaper. It details all about what is wrong with China's social , economic and political model today.

    I am posting it because, in case it missed your attention. The author in a well known journalistic and economist.


    China




    Dr Farrukh Saleem
    Sunday, November 25, 2012
    From Print Edition






    Capital suggestion



    Q: What is China’s economic model?


    A: China’s economic model is export driven. In order to keep the world’s largest labour force – some 780 million Chinese – employed China must export $1.9 trillion worth of goods and services. China uses a variation of the old ‘Japanese model’ that revolves around value addition to raw material and the export of finished products.



    Q: Who are China’s trade partners?


    A: The United States is China’s largest export market (roughly 25 percent of all Chinese exports are bought by the Americans). The EU is the second largest importer buying some 17 percent of China’s exports.



    Q: What are the two main weaknesses of China’s economic model?


    A: First – China’s growth model is completely dependent on the US and the EU. Second – China’s exports are completely dependent on the South China Sea and the East China Sea. To be certain, all commercial sea lanes around China are completely controlled by the Seventh Fleet of the United States Navy.



    Q: What about income inequalities in China?


    A: China’s export-led growth model has led to an urban-rural/coastal-inland income disparity of over 300 percent in favour of China’s urban population. Currently, around 500 million rural Chinese continue to survive at under $2 a day. This income disparity has been behind 180,000 recorded ‘mass incidents’ in 2010 including strikes, demonstrations and protests (a ‘mass incident’ in China is defined as “at least 15 participants”). In 2006, there were 90,000 ‘mass incidents’ (figures on ‘mass incidents’ are maintained by Nankai University, a public research university based in Tianjin).



    Q: What is China’s security model?


    A: Internal security is the responsibility of 2.3 million active-duty personnel of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and 1.5 million personnel of the People’s Armed Police (PAP). External security is configured around “four non-Han Chinese buffer states of Manchuria, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang and Tibet.”



    Q: What is the primary responsibility of the PLA?


    A: The primary responsibility of the PLA, as well as the PAP, is internal security. The PLA is the ultimate guarantor of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) hold over undiluted power. The PLA, as a consequence, has little or no capability to project Chinese power into foreign lands (that’s unlike the United States Armed Forces that are almost exclusively configured to project American power into foreign lands).



    Q: Why are rich Chinese leaving China?


    A: According to the Bank of China, 46 percent of Chinese with assets of more than 10 million yuan ($1.6 million) were “either in the process of emigrating, or were planning to do so.” In 2007, less than 300 rich Chinese applied to emigrate to the US. Last year, a 10-fold increase was recorded when 2,969 rich Chinese applied to emigrate to the US. The three top concerns are: security of assets, fear for the future and education of their children.



    Q: What about China’s demographics?


    A: China is aging – 119 million Chinese are now over 65. By 2014, two years from now, China will be the only country in the world with 200 million elderly people. All this means a large, economically non-productive population – really bad news for future economic growth.



    P.S. Some of the above concepts were first laid out by George Friedman of Strategic Forecasting.



    The writer is a columnist based in Islamabad. Email: [email protected]
     

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