China's inflation rate accelerates, bank lending surges, housing prices soar

amoy

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Hate to burst your bubble but there is zero chance of that happening. Once you are an advanced economy you don't revert to a developing one. French economy is strong because we have high consumer spending. Your economy is driven by exports and construction. Consumer spending in China has dropped to an all time low of 35% GDP. It should be 50-60%. China will never be able to consume a per capita as high as France for one simple reason, there are not enough resources to sustain it. Unless you plan on starving off the population like Mao. Your Gini score doesn't help, unequal distribution of wealth in China is at 3rd world levels, you can't increase consumer spending if it is held by a hundred billionares.
Actually echoing some of your points HERE, except a few Q's
* how comes your absurd attack on Mao (misled?)
* how will Monsieur A and his countrymen sustain your living standards (consumption)? based on service industry or cheap imports (how will u afford ?by printing EUrO?) in future? or by IT innovation (like India? for a fraction of population)
* for such a huge and once rural-dominant population 'low-end' manufacturing is inevitably one of ways for mass employment and source of income for many. u can't expect a whole China become a mega-Bangalore can u?
* how equal is India or France?? shed us some light how u achieve your 'equal wealth distribution'
* of course China is no paradise. but how did those fancy ideas come to your mind like about HSR or about China's education or 'scrapped motors' - if u have ever been in China. Is it your logic the world is either black or white?
 
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Armand2REP

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Actually echoing some of your points HERE, except a few Q's
* how comes your absurd attack on Mao (misled?)
I was refering to Mao's Great Leap Backwards that cost the lives of tens of millions of people. The point was China cannot attain a per capita GDP level with France unless its population is cut in half.

* how will Monsieur A and his countrymen sustain your living standards (consumption)? based on service industry or cheap imports (how will u afford ?by printing EUrO?) in future? or by IT innovation (like India? for a fraction of population)
The real money is in services and high end products, not cheap low end manufactured exports. The French economy has several pillars, #1 tourist destination, #1 high end agriculture, also breadbasket of Europe, #1 luxury goods, #1 nuclear industry, #1 exporter of electricity, #1 Aerospace... France is also in the top five in many other categories like IT, Telecom, Defence, Banking, Pharmaceuticals, Chemicals, Engineering, R&D, International students, Green tech ect... The key however has always been the buying power of the French consumer. The model is sustained by having high disposable incomes for the majority of the population. We do not have to go bankrupt worrying about doctor bills and high mortgages. French household debt is around 55% of GDP while the UK has ballooned to well over 100%. It is near 100% in the US. We are far away from a danger zone. The majority of wealth is not hoarded by a handful of billionaires, it is spread among the people who will spend it back into the economy. As for China...

Mortgage debt in China is exploding, 1000% rise last year. Savings rate for the middle class of China is on a steep decline with it being transferred to property developers, even the elderly are being tapped by their children to go buy property. When the bubble bursts it is going to wipe out many middle class and pensioners investments while the property developers stay rich.

* for such a huge and once rural-dominant population 'low-end' manufacturing is inevitably one of ways for mass employment and source of income for many. u can't expect a whole China become a mega-Bangalore can u?
I don't expect China to become a mega-Bangalore, much less having a GDP approaching France. That is the gist of what I have been saying to badguy.

* how equal is India or France?? shed us some light how u achieve your 'equal wealth distribution'
It is achieved by maintaining social safety nets... universal healthcare is the biggest component of that, affordable education, good pensions, social security... ect. India is going to have the same problem trying to disperse these services as China, but there is one thing in favour of India's long term growth that China doesn't have... consumer spending. India has a sustainable economic growth model with 57% of GDP in domestic consumption, China has fallen to 35%. Indian inequality is not near as severe as China.

* of course China is no paradise. but how did those fancy ideas come to your mind like about HSR or about China's education or 'scrapped motors' - if u have ever been in China. Is it your logic the world is either black or white?
HSR is no driver of economic transformation, advanced countries use it mainly to cut down on air pollution and energy consumption. Calais has benefited the most from TGV and its economy still declined. That is how I know, we have had HSR for thirty years.

I taught language in China so I have seen first hand the Chinese education system. It is full of cheating and rote learning, there is no critical thinking going on. It is also full of grade inflation. Chinese education is a mass production line with poor quality outcomes. Illiteracy is on the rise in China despite its education efforts, pretty bad to reverse after so much work.
 

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