China's Huge Labor Shortage begins

tgrhfei

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A side note to badguy2000. Those so called most profitable Chinese state banks are actually burdened with mountain high of debt thanks to their reckless lending to state enterprises.

They can either write off those bad loans by Chinese people's money which is not controlled by Chinese people or wait for the bursting of it
wow...great。。。how could you know that?are you working in these banks?
 

badguy2000

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Badguy, I never feel superior compare to my fellow Chinese living in main land, I'm from main land too. I believe normally you can do well if you try hard enough regardless of place you are living. And I know in China there are many talented and informed people.
well, one interesting difference is between oversea Chinese born in pre-1980 era and that born in post-1980 era....do you know why?

Generally speaking, those oversea Chinese ,who were born in pre-1980 era and went abroad before 2000,don't think CCP can save its own ass and like the ideas of "political reform,democracy"...etc. ......the reason might be that before they went abroad ,the backwardness of China and corruption of CCP officials had impressed them too much .

Perhaps ,another reason is that it is quite embarrasing for those guys to find that their less-talented classmates in mainland-china now live a better life and have a more success career....so they need some excuses to persuade themselves that "it is not wrong for them to go abroad"....


Instead, those oversea CHinese ,who were born in post-1980 era and went abroad after 2000, are indifferent to politics. they are more interested to get one decent postion in CHina after they graduate.

But what bothers me is under China's current system, one may not get the opportunity to be successful even he/she tried the best. But someone next door probably could get all the benefit and prestige if he/she happens to be some party leader descendent, or offspring of government officials or have special networking with those rich and powerful. It creates tremendous injustice and discrimination in a country that is ruled by one party. And our state controlled bank, enterprise are the places where Party extends their will.
well, "nepotism" is everywhere in the world. At least ,it is not limted to CHina.....In west world, it is just a disguised one.

For example, the politicians in USA and other west countries usually can get one fat-salary positon openly after they retired or finished their term of office.... can you tell me what is difference between west politicians' openly accepting "fat-salary position" and CCP's officials secretely taking bribery?

Can you tell me how the Bushes and the Kennedies "success" so easily? can you explain what is "Skull&bones"

the first difference is that in west such corruptions are usually legal and disguised while in CHina they are "sneaky" and illegal.

the second difference is that you are extremely critic to corruption in CHina while keeping a blind eyes to that in west world.


Like you said, Chinese economy is developing fast and mainland Chinese are no longer feeling extremely inferior to those overseas Chinese like once they felt before. How it happed? It's not because of our one party rule. It's because the party embrace the free market idea that stir up the free enterprise spirit of Chinese people. We are getting richer not because Party pays us more, it's the free enterprise that created millions job; the capitalism market that attracted billion of overseas investment, and hundreds of millions Chinese migrant worker that now can freely leave their home to seek work that create this miracle.
CCP has never "embraced" the free market. What CCP now embraces is the combination of the free market and command plan.
do you know what is the consquence of "embrace the free market"?

guy, it were Boris Yeltsin and his clique that once "embrace the free market"....then followed the golden age of Russian financial tycoons and one-decade-long decline of Russian economy.

It were Greenspan and his wall street partners that "embrace the free market", then followed the golden age of Wall stree fat cats and the 2008 crisis.


Now Chinese economy is at a tipping point of sustainability. The Party can continue acting as a catalyst or act like a roadblock. It's the choice they have to ultimately face: You want country first, or you want Party first?
that is what you watch with one telescope in one place which is one-ocean-distance away from CHina.
That is not what I watch and feel by getting in touching with Chinese peasant workers,officals,bluecollars , whitecollars and businessmen every day.
 
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badguy2000

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A side note to badguy2000. Those so called most profitable Chinese state banks are actually burdened with mountain high of debt thanks to their reckless lending to state enterprises.

They can either write off those bad loans by Chinese people's money which is not controlled by Chinese people or wait for the bursting of it
come on...don't you find that Mr Gorden Chang is your comrade?
 

badguy2000

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From what I know Soviet Union was the third richest country in the world just before dissolution. It was a little less than half the economy of US and half the per capita income. Soviet Union was also the third greatest industrial power behind US and Japan.

SU also had the largest industrial population in the world.

The problem SU faced was more economic than any major movement from the US. What they faced was same as what the Japanese faced only a decade later, ie, faulty domestic economic policies. If you notice the economic growth graph of SU from the 90s and the economic growth of the "SU" after 1990, you will see that after a brief stagnation there was a massive rise.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Soviet_Union_GDP.gif

After the breakup, the largest piece, Russia, was a $1.5 Trillion economy with negative growth. So, it is obvious that the SU was an economic giant, albeit dead. Boris Yeltsin messed up with economic Shock Therapy after 1991 and Russia lost nearly 50% of it's economy until Putin revved it up.

In the end, SU was rich, just not rich enough to maintain a superpower status.
Soviet economy was the strange combination of highly-developed heavy industry and poorly-developed light industry.

One hand , Soviet could produce global most advanced space station and weapons. On the other hand, it could not produce decent TV sets and other daily commodities.

Until 1987,Soviet had been global second economy for over 40 years. its GDP were estimted to be about 60% of USA during 1960-1980.

As for China, it's economic policies are more in tune with Japan than US or SU. (Haha! I never noticed that until I just typed it: US-SU). As long as China makes sound economic policies and protects the internal market well from shock like what happened to the Japanese in the 90s, then they will be fine.

@badguy
Centralized economies are unsustainable. Your economy has still not grown to the point where we can see it's effects yet. But it is slowly happening. Unemployment and inflation are the best gauge for that.

China may call itself capitalist but monopolizes on all critical industries which has to change or there could be a major problem in the future. India is doing that faster than China is because we already have a capable private industry.

Banking. Out of the 4 largest banks in India, there is one private bank called ICICI. So, it's a good start for us in this sector as well.

Power: It was a Private industry, Reliance, in India which bought $10Billion of power related equipment from a state controlled private industry, Shanghai Electric. Reliance also got into a big deal with General Electric for power plants.

Both these sectors are the most critical in an economy.
your idea of Chinese economy is quite outdated,just as well as your idea of "Danwei" and "hukou".

Fierce market compition exists among Chinese state-owned enterprises,except a few sections such as railways.

For example,
Bank.
In the city where I live, there were over one dozen of banks. All of them are ultimately controlled by the state. but the competition among the banks here are "throat-cutting",because their direct bosses are different.
It is reported that more banks are to set up branches here ..so the competition among banks here will be more "throat-cutting".

Telecom: China mobile ,China unicom and China tele are competiting fiercely.

aircraft: as we all know, Chengdu aircraft company and Shenyang aircraft companies are rivals.
 

p2prada

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A side note to badguy2000. Those so called most profitable Chinese state banks are actually burdened with mountain high of debt thanks to their reckless lending to state enterprises.

They can either write off those bad loans by Chinese people's money which is not controlled by Chinese people or wait for the bursting of it
This fact is quite exaggerated. As long as the banks can cover up the losses with other loans and growth, there is no issue in having a less than profitable business with local govts, especially considering the state govts infuse the money back into the economy as investment instead of hoarding all the money for themselves.

The banks aren't particularly looking for profitability. They are mostly concerned with infusing the economy with money at the right time. However, even with 20% NPLs(non performing loans), the performing assets offset the loss quite well. Meaning the banks are doing business at a profit. The banks are showing positive growth after all.

http://www.livemint.com/2010/10/28141516/ICBC-Q3-profit-up-27-on-loan.html

China is cooking books. But it is sustainable for at least a decade. So, until then there is little to worry about. With further reforms and perhaps a move towards privatization will decrease the NPLs big time after a decade or so.
 

p2prada

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Soviet economy was the strange combination of highly-developed heavy industry and poorly-developed light industry.

One hand , Soviet could produce global most advanced space station and weapons. On the other hand, it could not produce decent TV sets and other daily commodities.

Until 1987,Soviet had been global second economy for over 40 years. its GDP were estimted to be about 60% of USA during 1960-1980.
They were mostly in decline. With negative growth of over 3.5%.

your idea of Chinese economy is quite outdated,just as well as your idea of "Danwei" and "hukou".
The hukou system has a lot of repercussions on rural folk, especially from Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang and Tibet. It's something like how Russia is today. The Western part including Moscow is well developed while the internal passport system keeps the easterners cash strapped compared to their western counterparts. There is no equal distribution of wealth. In Russia oil is playing an equalizer, but in China the situation is different.

Fierce market compition exists among Chinese state-owned enterprises,except a few sections such as railways.
That is something I admire about China. Competition is always good. But China is yet to see the competition between Private companies. It will give a whole new meaning to the word "cut throat."

As long as your Banking sector and Power sector are privatized, China will progress even faster that what you see today. A Private bank can make much harder decisions while a Private Power sector can get better access to oil and gas without state bureaucratic controls bringing them down. Why do you think these sectors in America are the envy of the world, especially banking. It's not the President who runs the country(and the world), it is the bank CEOs.

This is something both India and China feared since the 60s. But India decided to live with it after privatizing banking in the 90s. China is yet to make the right reforms.
 

amoy

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This is something both India and China feared since the 60s. But India decided to live with it after privatizing banking in the 90s.
how is privatization defined? nowadays most state run ent. (incl major banks) are public companies listed in stock exchanges with individual shareholders amounting to 9.85 crores (May2008 data) while of course the state controls the lion's share in them. can this be regarded as a form of 'privatization'?
 

kickok1975

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Badguy2000, why do you keep stirring overseas Chinese vs. domestic Chinese? What is it relate to topics? Are you lack of self confidence or what? Can you not comment people in you subjective eye and leave them alone? Your word is full of prejudice and personal judgment: How do you know what people born before your time think about? How do you know they don't know China? Please don't label people if you can't objectively discuss issues.

Back to topic, what I'm talking about is free market and private business, and how it will help China's economy to grow to the next level. I'm not in pissing off game with you. It would be impressive if you can provide some knowledgeable facts and theory to support your opinion that state company, not private business would be good for China in the long run.
 
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p2prada

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how is privatization defined? nowadays most state run ent. (incl major banks) are public companies listed in stock exchanges with individual shareholders amounting to 9.85 crores (May2008 data) while of course the state controls the lion's share in them. can this be regarded as a form of 'privatization'?
Public companies are mainly companies that are listed on the stock exchange and offer IPOs to the general public. They could be private or state owned.

Ultimately, the difference between private and state owned is in their view points in business. Private industries are more interested in growth and profit while state owned enterprises are not. Also, the Private industry leader is highly interested in the growth of HIS company, he will make the right decisions that will put the company ahead of himself. But state owned companies have a govt appointed leader who will obviously put his own future ahead of his company's. After all even if both CEOs have the same job profile, the Private company CEO is a Billionaire(mostly because he owns the company stocks which are huge) while the state owned CEO is only a salaried individual paid by the govt after he is appointed after crossing big bureaucratic hurdles.

If the Private company CEO fvks up, he can always sell his holdings. The state owned CEO has no such choice. If he fvks up, he is gone. That would better explain why he would be more selfish in his decisions. This can be extended to the board of directors as well. Of course, the state owned PSUs have to balance out politics, internal as well as external as compared to Private units having to handle only external bureaucracy. Quick decision making is the biggest difference between the two because of that.

EDIT: Privatization in China is in it's infancy. CCP does not want to lose control of its most prized possession, the Big Four. If CCP loses control of the Big Four then the Army will have more power in influencing policies because the banks will work independently(mostly) off the CCP. This is something a democracy does not have to worry about in the long run. You guys have a lot of think about compared to a completely free market politically stable democracy.

Losing some of CCPs holding is considered Privatization. But having a 51%+ stake will mean the CCP still calls all the shots. But I guess CCP's holdings are nearly 70% in the Big Four. So, this needs more time. Also, I doubt there is a single private entity that can compare to the Big Four anyway.
 
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Ray

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how is privatization defined? nowadays most state run ent. (incl major banks) are public companies listed in stock exchanges with individual shareholders amounting to 9.85 crores (May2008 data) while of course the state controls the lion's share in them. can this be regarded as a form of 'privatization'?
In our country, it is called public = private JV.
 

no smoking

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I know about the hukou system.

I wanted to know can a person sustain his family if he takes them along to his city of work?

Each danwei creates their own housing, child care, schools, clinics, shops, services, post offices, etc. Therefore, will the Danwei not ensure that the worker's family is also looked after i.e. medically, child care and education in particular?
Well, it seems you don't know about Hukou system. All you know about is the one before last 80s.

Since last 90s, Danwei no longer provided housing, child care, schools etc to their employees. They only provide subsidies to their employees. The amount was decided by each Danwei's financial situation, which was decided by their gray income that is related to their political or economic power. That is one major source of corruption.
 

Ray

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Well, it seems you don't know about Hukou system. All you know about is the one before last 80s.

Since last 90s, Danwei no longer provided housing, child care, schools etc to their employees. They only provide subsidies to their employees. The amount was decided by each Danwei's financial situation, which was decided by their gray income that is related to their political or economic power. That is one major source of corruption.
You have mentioned about everything but the Hukou system which you claim that I don't know.

So, do tell us as to what it is!

If that is what is teh Danwei, then the reasons why the Jasmine Revolution got kick started can be understood where they are demanding more food, more wages, more housing and more jobs!!
 

tony4562

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One major reason why college students in China are having problem finding jobs is the gradual decline in the value of a college degree in China over the last 2 decades. When i was young, going to college was a privilege as China graduated only half million college students a year. It was extremely difficult to get into a college, any college that is. And pretty much all college graduates were assigned jobs at state-owned enterprises upon graduation. These days the number of graduates have increased to 6 million a year, and like commodities a college degree no longer means much, and to make the matter worse it is now one's own responsibility to land a job. That being said, degrees from the top 10-20 universities like Tsinghua or Beijing University are still very much coveted.

College students are having a tough time now not only in China, but everywhere. In some european countries 7 out of 10 fresh graduates are unemployed, and in the US an economics degree from a community college won't get you very far either.
 

badguy2000

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One major reason why college students in China are having problem finding jobs is the gradual decline in the value of a college degree in China over the last 2 decades. When i was young, going to college was a privilege as China graduated only half million college students a year. It was extremely difficult to get into a college, any college that is. And pretty much all college graduates were assigned jobs at state-owned enterprises upon graduation. These days the number of graduates have increased to 6 million a year, and like commodities a college degree no longer means much, and to make the matter worse it is now one's own responsibility to land a job. That being said, degrees from the top 10-20 universities like Tsinghua or Beijing University are still very much coveted.

College students are having a tough time now not only in China, but everywhere. In some european countries 7 out of 10 fresh graduates are unemployed, and in the US an economics degree from a community college won't get you very far either.
well, before 1998, the higher education was the education for the elite in CHina. After 1998, the higher eduction became gradually the one for Chinese common.
 

redragon

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BG, do you have an ID in CCTHERE? you are quoting article from there a lot of time, just curious
 

Ray

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Go to the Global Times forum and enjoy yourselves there and take our thoughts there to interact with the Chinese at large as also the international posters.
 

Ray

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no smoking

How about your educating us about the hukou that you know and we don't know.

Also be specific about the migrants and their rights who do not change their hokou status.
 

nimo_cn

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There should be more Indians who are as knowledgable about China as Ray!
 

Ray

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There should be more Indians who are as knowledgable about China as Ray!
I am not knowledgeable.

I am just thirsty for knowledge......from any source and which is verifiable!

That is why I am so keenly awaiting education from No Smoking.
 

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